US Gulf:
NOLA urea barges
dropped as low as $508/st FOB early in the week, but quickly climbed back up to
as high as $550/st FOB after news broke that India was calling another tender
so soon after the last one. The week-ago range was $540-$570/st FOB.
Eastern Cornbelt:
The urea market
was down significantly in the Eastern Cornbelt, fueled by falling NOLA barge
prices. New terminal offers fell to $590-$625/st FOB in the region, well below
the prior week’s $660-$680/st FOB range. The low was reported out of Ohio River
terminals on a spot basis, while the Ottawa, Ill., market was quoted at the
$610/st FOB level at midweek.
In the Great Lakes
region, new urea offers FOB Toledo, Ohio, were confirmed at the $620/st level
for November-December tons, down dramatically from last week’s $680/st FOB
price.
Western Cornbelt:
Urea prices
dropped to $600-$630/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, down significantly from
the prior week’s $650-$670/st FOB range, with the low confirmed at St. Louis,
Mo., at midweek.
Southern Plains:
Urea pricing reportedly plunged to $605-$620/st FOB Catoosa/Inola,
Okla., during the week, down considerably from the previous week’s $650-$670/st
FOB range. Some sources said offers had bounced back up to $660/st FOB after
NOLA barge prices firmed in response to the new Indian urea tender.
The Houston urea market was pegged at the $615/st FOB
level at midweek, down from $670/st FOB in mid-October.
South Central:
The
latest urea offers in the South Central region ranged broadly at $600-$670/st
FOB in early November, depending on location, with the low reported at Convent,
La. The Memphis, Tenn., market was pegged at $650-$655/st FOB at midweek, down
$55/st from mid-October.
Southeast:
Urea pricing in
the Southeast slipped to $660-$670/st FOB Wilmington, N.C., and other port
terminals, down $15-$25/st from last report.
India:
Rumors were
running wild early in the week that another Indian tender would be called soon.
For once, the rumors were correct. National Fertilizer Ltd. called a tender to
close Nov. 14 with a shipping deadline of Dec. 22. The technical and price
envelopes from offering companies will not be opened until Nov. 15.
Sources expect to
see slightly softer prices in the tender. Expectations are that NFL will try to
take at least 1.5 million mt. So far this year India has purchased 6.1 million
mt from tenders. In 2021 the country bought 7.9 million mt in tender, and in
2020 it bought 9 million mt.
Sources said to
just stay even with demand, NFL will have to take the estimated 1.5 million mt.
The tender documents did not specify a desired quantity, as did the recent IPL
tender documents.
The buyer might have some wiggle room in how many tons it seeks. India has closed deals for tonnage to be supplied from OMIFCO outside the tender process. However, observers do not expect these tons to completely fill the gap between what is bought by tender and domestic production and the estimated demand. Government figures estimated demand is about 35 million mt/y, with production at 25 million mt/y. If NFL buys 1.5 million mt, that will take them close to the same levels as last year, but not enough to cover the supply and demand chasm.
The government
announced that it expects to end all urea imports after 2025. The statement
said existing production, combined with new facilities coming online in the
next few months, combined with the use of nano urea, will be sufficient to
cover domestic needs without imports.
Increased cost of
fertilizers forced the Indian government to increase its budget for subsidies.
Even though the cost to farmers has not changed, the difference between what is
paid for imported urea and the farmers’ price changes with each new tender
purchase. The government estimated that a 45-kg bag of urea would cost about
$32 at market price. Farmers, however, only pay $3.21. The difference is covered
by the urea subsidy.
Sources reported
numerous issues distributing the urea that has already arrived. They noted
protests around the country that were related to delays in distributing urea
and DAP. One trader said the urea purchased in the NFL tender is probably going
to be used to build inventory for next year, because December shipments will
most likely not be able to reach the farmers in time for the current season.
Pakistan:
The government
authorized TCP to accept the low offer in its 300,000 mt urea tender. Makhtom
Logistic International offered the full quantity at $520/mt CFR.
Sources said
finding any urea at that price will be difficult, if not impossible. China and
the Arab Gulf urea prices are pegged in the $620s/mt FOB, based on the last
Indian tender. They are not asking more than that from spot buyers. Black Sea
material might work if Makhtom can find a way to secure Russian urea in a
timely manner. The whole 300,000 mt must be delivered by the end of December,
or Makhtom will lose its 5% performance bond and possibly additional costs as
determined by TCP.
The tight schedule
and concern over timely payments outlined in the tender documents kept most of
the major international trading houses away from the tender. Only three
companies participated.
The shooting of
former Prime Minister Imran Khan has put much of Pakistan in chaos. Sources
wondered if the situation would allow for the tender documents to be processed
in a timely manner, including timely issuance of the letter of credit for the
tonnage ordered. One trader speculated the tender may end up getting scrapped.
Egypt:
Prices started the week low at $545/mt FOB for 50,000 mt to a non-European buyer. As the days passed, prices moved up sharply to close out at $630/mt. All shipments were for either late November or early December.
|
Producer
|
Quantity
(mt)
|
US$/mt
FOB
|
|
Monday
|
|
MOPCO
|
50,000
|
545
|
|
Tuesday
|
|
Helwan
|
6,000
|
580
|
|
KIMA
|
10,000
|
582
|
|
AlexFert
|
6,000
|
580
|
|
Alexfert
|
5,000
|
585
|
|
Alexfert
|
5,000
|
590
|
|
MOPCO
|
5,000
|
615
|
|
MOPCO
|
5,000
|
615
|
|
Wednesday
|
|
AlexFert
|
5,000
|
625
|
|
AlexFert
|
5,000
|
630
|
European buyers
have been reported to be anxious to secure tons from outside to make up for
their own lost production due to high natural gas prices forcing plants closed.
Indonesia:
Persero, the
holding company for the ammonia and urea producing companies in Indonesia,
signed an MOU with Fertiglobe that will allow Persero to have access to the
Fertiglobe global distribution network and to handle global sales of Indonesia
urea. At the same time, Persero opened a trade office in Dubai.
In a press
release, Persero said the representative office and MOU will ease access to raw
materials for NPK production as well as secure new global markets for
Indonesian product.
January-September
2022 exports of Indonesia urea were reported at 1.5 million mt by Trade Data Monitor, down about 13% from
the 1.7 million mt exported during the period in 2021. The main buyers were
Australia with 338,000 mt, and India with 280,000 mt. European buyers, facing
the shutdown of their own plants due to high natural gas prices, took 72,000
mt, compared with no tons during the same period last year.
Third-quarter
exports were reported at 639,000 mt, down slightly from the 658,000 mt exported
during the same period in 2021.
September 2022
exports were reported at 196,000 mt, up 39% from the 141,000 mt exported during
September 2021. No single buyer dominated the market. The Philippines took
33,000 mt for 17% of the exports, followed by Argentina with 29,000 mt for 15%
of the market. The 72,000 mt taken by European buyers all happened during
September.
Brazil:
The high
stockpiles of urea in Brazil, coupled with the political unrest that followed
the Oct. 30 presidential election, led to a slight drop in urea prices in
Brazil, to $580-$630/mt CFR.
The price in
Rondonopolis remained relatively stable at $740-$790/mt FOB ex-warehouse.
Sources said farmers spent the week demonstrating in support of defeated
presidential candidate Jair Bolsonaro, and distributors saw roads blocked to
protest his loss, leaving few reasons to engage in trading.
October urea
imports were reported at 597,000 mt, down from the 862,000 mt imported during
October 2021. January-October imports were pegged at 5.8 million mt, about 7%
down from the 6.2 million mt imported during the same period in 2021.
Malaysia:
January-September
2022 urea exports were reported at 1.4 million mt by Trade Data Monitor, down about 7% from the 1.5 million mt exported
during the same period in 2021. Australia dominated the purchases with 402,000
mt, followed by Thailand with 298,000 mt, and India with 131,000 mt.
Third-quarter 2022
exports were reported at 554,000 mt, up 22% from the 455,000 mt exported during
the same period in 2021.
September 2022
exports were reported at 248,000 mt, up dramatically from the 134,000 mt
exported during September 2021. Australia took 44% of the exports at 108,000
mt. Chile with 33,000 mt accounted for 13% of the export sales, followed by New
Zealand with 30,000 mt for 12% of the market.
Turkey:
January-September
2022 urea imports were reported at 1.6 million mt by Trade Data Monitor, down about 18% from the 2 million mt imported
during the same period in 2021. The main supplier was Oman with 897,000 mt.
Third-quarter 2022
imports were reported at 627,000 mt, up 10% from the 568,000 mt imported during
the same three months of 2021. Imports during the third quarter also
represented a substantial leap over the 529,000 mt imported in the first
quarter and the second quarter imports of 477,000 mt.
September 2022
imports were reported at 154,000 mt, down about a third from the 226,000 mt
imported during September 2021. Oman accounted for 83% of the imports with
128,000 mt.
Thailand:
January-September
2022 urea imports were reported at 1.5 million mt by Trade Data Monitor, down about 18% from the 1.9 million mt imported
during the same period in 2021. Saudi Arabia was the largest supplier with
598,000 mt, followed by Qatar with 341,000 mt, and Malaysia with 339,000 mt.
Third-quarter 2022
imports were reported at 584,000 mt, down from the 677,000 mt imported during
the same three months in 2021. September 2022 imports were pegged at 79,000 mt,
down drastically from the 285,000 mt imported during September 2021.
Black Sea:
Sources reported a
slight increase in the price of Black Sea prilled urea. The increase came on
the lower end of the price range to $500-$525/mt FOB.
Middle East:
Sources said the
current price under discussion for Arab Gulf material is now $610-$620/mt FOB.
However, no new spot deals were reported at that level.
China:
Indications of new
and higher prices are coming out of China for the limited tonnage being sold.
Sources said producers are now asking $680-$700/mt FOB for their product. So
far, no deals have been confirmed at the higher rate, leaving the price at the
level calculated from the last Indian tender in the upper $620s/mt FOB.