All posts by mickeybarb@charter.net

Ammonium Thiosulfate

Amthio, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, South Central, Southern Plains, Specialty, Western Cornbelt

Eastern Cornbelt:

Ammonium thiosulfate pricing was unchanged at $400-$450/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, depending on location.

Western Cornbelt:

Ammonium thiosulfate remained in a wide range at $350-$450/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low reported in Nebraska and the high in Iowa on a spot basis.

Southern Plains:

Ammonium thiosulfate prices were unchanged at $335-$400/st FOB in the Southern Plains, depending on location.

South Central:

New ammonium thiosulfate offers in Memphis were quoted at $430-$435/st FOB, down $20/st from last report.

Crops/Weather

Crops/Weather, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, South Central, Southeast, Southern Plains, Western Cornbelt

Eastern Cornbelt:

US Drought Monitor

Temperatures in the low- to mid-70s were common across Illinois and Indiana during the week, but gusty winds and an increased chance of rain were likely by the weekend.

Ohio and Michigan experienced similar conditions, with dry weather and highs reaching the upper-60s and low-70s for most of the week. Cold weather was on tap for the weekend, however, along with spotty showers.

The fall harvest continued to progress rapidly. Illinois growers had 78% of the corn harvested by the end of October, compared with 71% in Indiana, 56% in Ohio, and 43% in Michigan. The soybean harvest was 89% complete in Illinois, 87% in Indiana and Ohio, and 77% in Michigan.

Fully 93-94% of the winter wheat crop was planted in Ohio and Michigan by the end of October, compared with 80-81% in Indiana and Illinois.

Low water levels on the river system continued to delay barge shipments in early November. “I’m going on the seventh week of waiting on barges, which is three weeks longer than normal,” commented one regional contact.

Western Cornbelt:

Temperatures in the 70s were common across Iowa during the week, but a cold front was expected to drop highs to the 40s on Nov. 4 and bring steady rains to much of the state, followed by a chance of snow in western Iowa on Nov. 5. Rain was also in the forecast for Missouri late in the week.

Similar conditions were reported in Nebraska, with a winter weather advisory posted for western areas of the state late on Nov. 3 and into Nov. 4. Forecasts warned of up to two inches of snow in some locations late in the week.

Corn Wheat Soybean Index

The corn harvest as of Oct. 30 was reported at 83% complete in Missouri, 80% in Nebraska, and 77% in Iowa, while the soybean harvest had progressed to 97% complete in Nebraska, 94% in Iowa, and 73% in Missouri. Missouri’s cotton crop was 68% harvested by that date, along with 75% of Nebraska’s sorghum harvest.

“Yield reports are all over the board, from zeroed out to good surprises,” commented one source. “It all just depended on where the clouds were.”

Southern Plains:

Much of the Southern Plains was bracing for severe weather late in the week, including the potential for damaging winds, large hail, and heavy rain. Cities at risk included Wichita, Kan., Oklahoma City and Tulsa, Okla., and Dallas, Austin, San Antonio, and Houston in Texas. Forecasts warned of 1-3 inches of rain possible in many locations through Nov. 5.

Temperatures plummeted in Colorado during the week, falling 50 degrees in Denver from Nov. 1 to Nov. 4. An early winter storm also brought snowfall to parts of Colorado at midweek, and parts of New Mexico were hit with rain, snow, and strong winds on Nov. 3.

The corn harvest as of Oct. 30 was 90-97% complete in Kansas and Texas, compared with 45% in Colorado. Kansas growers also had 79% of the soybeans picked by that date, while the cotton harvest had progressed to 50% complete in Kansas, 48% in Texas, and 29% in Oklahoma.

Growers were also working on the sorghum harvest, which was rated at 64-68% complete in Oklahoma, Colorado, and Kansas, compared with 100% in Texas. The sunflower harvest was 40% complete in Colorado and 65% in Kansas by the end of October.

The expected rainfall was reportedly sparking some interest in fall fertilizer, even after what one source described as crop yields that were “very sub-average” because of drought conditions. “Interest in P and K has picked up, not setting records, but better than it has been for several months,” reported one regional contact.

South Central:

Recent rainfall has improved drought conditions across Arkansas, but the state was bracing for potentially severe weather by the end of the week, with forecasts warning of damaging winds, hail, and possible tornado activity on Nov. 4.

Louisiana was also at a slight risk for severe weather on Nov. 4, and the cold front was expected to push eastward across the Mississippi Valley on Nov. 5.

A dry fall has allowed the harvest to move rapidly in the South Central region, with progress tracking ahead of the five-year average for all crops in all states. The corn harvest as of Oct. 30 was 91-97% complete in Kentucky and Tennessee, while the soybean harvest had progressed to 71-73% in Kentucky and Tennessee, 88% in Arkansas, and 93-98% in Mississippi and Louisiana.

The cotton harvest was 65% complete in Tennessee by Oct. 30, compared with 84% in Mississippi, 87% in Arkansas, and 95% in Louisiana. The rice harvest was fully 97-100% complete in the region.

Southeast:

Warm, dry weather was reported across much of the Southeast in early November, although wet conditions were expected by the coming weekend.

With highs reaching the mid- to upper-70s in many areas, sources reported rapid progress on the fall harvest. North Carolina growers had 96% of the corn and 45% of the soybeans harvested by Oct. 30, with the cotton harvest reported at 47% complete in Georgia, 51% in South Carolina, 59% in Alabama, 60% in North Carolina, and 68% in Virginia.

The peanut harvest had progressed to 66% complete in South Carolina, 79% in North Carolina, 80% in Alabama, 83% in Georgia, 92% in Florida, and 95% in Virginia. The harvest of peanuts and cotton was tracking ahead of the average pace in all Southeast states in late October.

Sources reported some application taking place on wheat, hay, and pastures in early November, but the pace was slow. “Farmers are beginning to ask about spring prices,” added one contact.

Transportation

Arkansas River, Illinois River, Market Watch, Mississippi RIver, Ohio River, Transportation, U.S. Gulf

US Gulf:

Low water levels on the lower Mississippi River have closed Harvey Lock to navigation since Oct. 2. Ongoing guidewall construction at Bayou Sorrel Lock intermittently blocked Monday-through-Friday movements between 6:30 a.m. and 5:00 p.m., with normal operating hours available on Saturdays and Sundays.

On the Atchafalaya River, commercial travel remained shut down indefinitely through Little Island Pass, Middle Island Pass, and Riverside Pass due to exposed underwater pipelines.

Tows locking through Algiers Lock without assistance faced length and width restrictions, effectively limiting tows to four standard barges or two 30,000 mt tankers per lockage. Vessels passing with larger barge counts were permitted when traveling with an assist vessel. Waits were noted up to 10 hours during the week.

Dredging was scheduled for New Orleans Harbor on Nov. 1-7. Industrial Lock waits were noted up to 10 hours, while tows passing through Port Allen Lock were delayed up to five hours during the week. Colorado Lock wait times peaked above seven hours on Oct. 30-31, with Brazos Lock lockages reported as high as 14.5 hours.

Mississippi River:

The lower Mississippi River’s historic low water levels gave freight operators no relief during the week, as river gauges continued to return depth readings unseen since the late 1980s.

Draft limits on solid cargos continued at 9.0 feet in both the northbound and southbound directions, while limits on liquid cargos were reported at 8.5 feet of draft. Barge-count maximums were reported at 25 cargoes per tow, down from the typical 30-40 barges. As a result, total carrying capacity was reduced by 25-50% or more per tow, sources said.

In addition, blue-water vessel drafts at Baton Rouge, La., were reportedly capped at 41 feet for the week, down from 45 feet.

Despite a slight rise to (-)8.12 feet on Nov. 2, the river gauge at Memphis remained significantly below the 5.0-foot Low Stage during the week. The Vicksburg, Miss., gauge was posted at 1.67 feet, also below the 5.0-foot Low Stage, while the St. Louis gauge was noted at (-)0.45 feet and falling on Nov 2. All three gauges were expected to hold steady or fall from their Nov. 2 levels through at least Nov. 16.

Dredging at Mile 704 on the lower river kicked off on Nov. 1 and was expected to end on Nov. 2-3. An eight-day dredging project was also scheduled for Mile 485, with closures of up to 48 hours anticipated at the site.

Channel work was expected to begin on Nov. 3 at Mile 344, closing the area to navigation daily between 6:00 a.m. and 6:00 p.m. through an estimated Nov. 17. Work was expected to transition to Mile 336 on Nov. 17-25. A safety advisory was reported at Miles 228-230 due to repairs underway at the I-10 bridge.

Old River Lock is closed through Nov. 13 for miter gate replacement, complicating access to the Red River. Vessels were recommended to detour through the Atchafalaya River.

Recent rains on the upper Mississippi River allowed for relaxed transit restrictions in the St. Louis Harbor, allowing barges with corners under 9.5 feet of draft to move within the area. Officially, however, draft limits remained at 9.0 feet at St. Louis during the week.

Dredging work at Mile 184 on the upper river resulted in overnight shutdowns during the week. The project is scheduled to continue through Nov. 14.

Illinois River:

Wickets continued in the raised position at Peoria Lock and LaGrange Lock due to low river levels, necessitating lockages through both locations.

Ohio River:

Low water levels continued to snag travel on the Ohio River, prompting 9.0-foot draft limits for the full length of the waterway. Drafts were limited to 9.0 feet on the Tennessee and Cumberland Rivers, as well. Dredging was reported in the Mound City, Mo., area at Miles 965-974 on the Ohio River.

Miter gate replacement work in progress at the Cannelton Lock main chamber will continue to force detours through the secondary chamber until Nov. 11. Most wait times were noted in the 15-36 hour range through the week.

Montgomery Lock primary chamber repairs are scheduled to run through Dec. 16. Passages are limited to the secondary chamber while work is underway, resulting in 2-3 day delays during the week, increasing from 18 hours in the prior report.

Low water levels and a sandbar located near Olmsted Lock contributed to locking delays in the 5-12 hour range during the week, with intermittent delays noted up to 22 hours.

Arkansas River:

Norrell Lock is slated to remain shut to daytime navigation through Nov. 30, blocking travel daily between 7:00 a.m. and 7:00 p.m. Lockages were available during overnight hours, subject to a 70-foot width limit. A complete shutdown at the site is scheduled for Jan. 30-31, 2023.

Nutrien Selects thyssenkrupp Uhde as Tech Partner for Geismar Clean Ammonia Project

Ammonia, Germany, Louisiana, News, News Briefs, Saskatchewan

Nutrien Ltd. on Oct. 26 announced the selection of thyssenkrupp Uhde, Germany, as technology provider and partner for its planned clean ammonia facility, currently under consideration at Geismar, La.

Intended to serve the agriculture, industrial, and emerging energy markets, the 1.2 million mt/y facility will claim title as the world’s largest clean ammonia production facility, and is expected to capture and store more than 90% of CO2 emissions, giving the facility the smallest carbon footprint of any ammonia production center of its scale. Future modifications could transition the plant to net-zero emissions, Nutrien said.

“This partnership marks another important milestone in our commitment to provide solutions to help meet the world’s decarbonization goals through leadership in clean ammonia production,” said Trevor Williams, Interim President of Nitrogen and Phosphate at Nutrien. “We are glad to have an experienced partner with both the technology and proven execution competence to join us on this journey as we strive to sustainably feed and fuel the future.”

The ammonia plant will utilize autothermal reforming technology (ATR), according to thyssenkrupp. “ATR allows for a nearly CO2-free syngas production from natural gas with the help of pure oxygen,” thyssenkrupp said. “Ammonia is produced in a second step, and the CO2 from this combined reforming is captured and stored.”

Nutrien has partnered with thyssenkrupp on a number of past projects, with thyssenkrupp operating in capacities ranging from licensing and technology, to full engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) agreements, Nutrien said.

“We are excited to be the chosen technology partner for this project and support the execution as well,” said thyssenkrupp CEO Dr. Cord Landsmann. “This is another proof point that the market is shifting towards sustainable, clean ammonia. And we can deliver easy to install solutions at the necessary scale.”

The plant remains in the front-end engineering design (FEED) phase, and is awaiting a final investment decision due in 2023. If given the green light, construction on the $2 billion facility would begin in 2024, followed by full production in 2027 (GM May 20, 2022).

thyssenkrupp has built more than 2,500 chemical plants worldwide, including several ammonia production facilities, according to the company website. Earlier in October, thyssenkrupp was tapped by the UK’s Oracle Power PLC to conduct a feasibility study for the construction of a green hydrogen and ammonia facility, and in August won a contract from Qatar Fertilizer Co. (QAFCO) for EPC and commissioning of a new blue ammonia plant in Qatar, thyssenkrupp said.

Nutrien noted it has actively been pursuing the development of low-carbon ammonia for more than a decade, and has approximately 1 million mt/y of production capability through its Redwater and Joffre, Alta., operations, as well as Geismar, all of which employ carbon capture and sequestration technology (GM July 30, 2021).

Nutrien has also signed a Letter of Intent to collaborate with Mitsubishi Corp., Tokyo, for offtake of up to 40% of expected production from the plant to deliver to the Asian fuel market, including Japan, once construction at Geismar is complete (GM May 20, 2022).

Stellar 3Q Results Expected from CF, Mosaic, Nutrien According to Bloomberg Consensus

Earnings, News

Third-quarter results for CF Industries Holdings Inc., The Mosaic Co., and Nutrien Ltd. are expected to significantly exceed year-ago levels, according to the Bloomberg Consensus, an average of estimates from major analysts. CF and Nutrien are expected to more than double year-ago adjusted EBITDA, and Mosaic is expected to come close.

Analysts project that CF will have third-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $1.16 billion, up from the year-ago $488 million. Net income is put at $686.4 million on revenues of $2.4 billion, up from the year-ago loss of $185 million and $1.36 billion, respectively. The year-ago loss included CF’s taking of an impairment on UK assets.

Mosaic is projected to have third-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $1.88 billion, up from the year-ago $969 million. Net income is estimated to be $1.19 billion on revenues of $5.76 billion, up from the year-ago $371.9 million and $3.42 billion, respectively.

Analysts estimate Nutrien will have adjusted EBITDA of $3.58 billion, up from the year-ago $1.64 billion. Net income is expected to be $2.15 billion on revenues of $8.88 billion, up from the year-ago $726 million and $6.0 billion, respectively.

Nutrien is expected to release earnings results after markets close on Nov. 2, CF on Nov. 3, and Mosaic on Nov. 7.

  3Q-22 Estimate 3Q-21 Actual
CF    
Revenue 2.4 B 1.36 B
Net Income 686.4 M (185 M)
Adj. EBITDA 1.16 B 488 M
Mosaic    
Revenue 5.76 B 3.42 B
Net Income 1.19 B 371.9 M
Adj. EBITDA 1.88 B 969 M
Nutrien    
Revenue 8.88 B 6.0 B
Net Income 2.15 B 726 M
Adj. EBITDA 3.58 B 1.64 B

Second Rail Union Rejects Tentative Labor Deal; Business Groups Urge White House to Intervene

Featured, News, Transportation, U.S.

The prospect of a rail strike loomed larger this week after members of a second union voted to reject the tentative labor agreement reached in September with the six Class 1 railroads.

The Brotherhood of Railroad Signalmen (BRS), which represents more than 6,000 rail workers, announced on Oct. 26 that 60.57% of its members voted against the agreement, which provides for a 24% wage increase for five years retroactive to Jan. 1, 2020, $5,000 in lump-sum bonus payments, and a 14.1% retroactive portion of the 24% wage increase payable immediately upon ratification (GM Sept. 16, p. 1).

The BRS vote follows the announcement earlier this month by the Brotherhood of Maintenance of Way Employees Division (BMWED) that a majority of its members had also voted to reject the agreement (GM Oct. 14, p. 1). BMWED represents almost 12,000 rail workers.

“For the first time that I can remember, the BRS members voted not to ratify a National Agreement, and with the highest participation rate in BRS history,” said BRS President Michael Baldwin in an Oct. 26 statement. “Without Signalmen, the roadways and railroad crossings would be unsafe for the traveling public, and they shoulder that heavy burden each day.

“Additionally, the highest offices at each carrier, as well as their stockholders, seem to forget that the rank-and-file of their employees continued to perform their job each day through an unprecedented pandemic, while the executives worked from home to keep their families safe,” he added.

Baldwin’s statement said ongoing disputes over paid time off for illness were a primary reason for the negative vote, a factor that was also cited by the BMWED. The agreement reached in September included raises and bonuses that a Presidential Emergency Board (PEB) recommended this summer (GM Aug. 19, p. 28), as well as concessions from railroads to ease attendance policies to allow workers unpaid days off for doctor’s appointment without penalty.

As it currently stands, six of 12 unions have now voted to approve the deal, while two have rejected it and the remaining four will reveal voting results in mid-November. The National Carriers’ Conference Committee (NCCC), which represents freight railroads in labor talks, said on Oct. 26 that it was disappointed in the BRS vote, but both sides have agreed to maintain the status quo until early December.

After its vote to reject the agreement, the BMWED submitted a counteroffer to the NCCC in mid-October that reportedly called for a basic package of six paid sick days, a proposal that was promptly rejected by the NCCC. “Now is not the time to introduce new demands that rekindle the prospect of a railroad strike,” the NCCC said in an Oct. 19 statement.

“Now, following an unsuccessful initial membership ratification process, BMWED leadership is asking for additional benefits and threatening to strike, this time based on the easily disproved premise that union workers are not allowed to take sick leave,” the NCCC said. “Rail employees can and do take time off for sickness and have comprehensive paid sickness benefits starting, in the case of BMWED-represented employees, after four days of absence and lasting up to 52 weeks.

“The structure of these benefits is a function of decades of bargaining where unions, including BMWED, have repeatedly agreed that short-term absences would be unpaid in favor of higher compensation for days worked and more generous sickness benefits for longer absences,” the NCCC added.

In an Oct. 26 letter to members, BMWED National Division President Tony Cardwell responded to the NCCC by describing the union’s counterproposal for paid sick days as “reasonable” and “a common benefit in nearly every other industry” in the US.

“We provided our proposal to the railroads, but they rejected it and indicated they would not consider any proposal that veers from the PEB recommendations,” Cardwell said. “BMWED leadership has gone on a campaign of informing the public and lawmakers of the railroad companies’ unwillingness to provide basic sick days while carrier executives bow to Wall Street’s continued desire for more than its fair share. As long as they take that stance, all we can do is encourage solidarity and prepare to exercise self-help.”

The 12 unions involved in labor negotiations collectively represent approximately 115,000 rail workers at the major Class 1 freight railroads. The railroads have estimated that a rail strike could cost the economy $2 billion per day.

To avert a potential strike, more than 300 business groups on Oct. 27 sent a letter to President Biden urging federal intervention. The letter’s signers included The American Farm Bureau Federation, Alliance for Automotive Innovation, National Retail Federation, and U.S. Chamber of Commerce

“Unfortunately, we have seen two unions reject the agreement and there are concerns that others may follow. If that were to be the case, we could witness a strike that would shut down the entire freight rail system,” the letter said. “Because the White House played such a central role in the process, we believe it can be helpful in continuing to move the process forward in a positive direction. Otherwise, Congress will be called upon to act.”