All posts by mickeybarb@charter.net

Sulfate of Potash

US Imports:

SOP imports for July-August fell 86.1%, to 6,270 st from last year’s 45,249 st. August imports fell 93.7%, to 2,706 st from 42,665 st in August 2021.

US Exports:

SOP exports for August firmed 83.2% year-over-year, to 4,955 st from 2,705 st. July-August exports moved up 136.7%, to 9,038 st from the year-ago 3,818 st.

Southeast:

The SOP market was pegged at $980/st FOB in Florida for October shipments, up from $930/st in September.

Crops/Weather

Eastern Cornbelt:

US Drought Monitor

The week started with temperatures in the 70s and sunny skies, creating ideal harvest conditions in all three states. Colder weather moved in as the week advanced, however, prompting a freeze warning for most of northern Illinois and northwestern Indiana on Oct. 14. Lows were expected to fall to the upper-20s and low-30s.

The corn harvest had progressed to 27% complete in Illinois and Indiana by Oct. 9, compared with 15% in Ohio, while the regional soybean harvest was estimated at 30-36% complete by that date. Good or excellent ratings were assigned to 70-72% of the corn and soybeans in Illinois, 65% in Ohio, and 58-59% in Indiana.

Winter wheat planting was also underway in the region, with progress estimated at 37% complete in Ohio, 27% in Indiana, and 16% in Illinois.

Western Cornbelt:

Corn Wheat Soybean Index

Strong winds, low humidity, and worsening drought conditions raised fire dangers across Nebraska and western Iowa during the week, prompting red flag fire warnings in both states.

Wind gusts up to 40-50 mph were reported in Nebraska on Oct. 12-13, with a cold front dropping temperatures from the 70s and 80s at midweek down to the 60s by the weekend. While scattered showers were reported in southwestern Missouri early in the week, windy conditions resulted in red flag fire warnings for some portions of the state later in the week.

Corn harvesting had progressed to 53% complete in Missouri by Oct. 9, compared with 34% in Nebraska and 23% in Iowa. The soybean harvest was 54-55% complete in Iowa and Nebraska by that date, ahead of Missouri’s 22%. USDA placed 62-63% of Iowa’s corn and soybeans in the good or excellent categories, compared with 49-50% in Missouri and 39-40% in Nebraska.

Missouri’s rice was 78% harvested by Oct. 9, along with 14% of the state’s cotton crop, with 60% of the cotton rated as good or excellent. With 16% of the sorghum crop harvested in Nebraska, fully 62% of the acreage was rated as poor or very poor due to severe-to-exceptional drought conditions across most of the state.

Southern Plains:

Some needed moisture was reported in parts of eastern Kansas as a cold front produced scattered showers at midweek. Much of the Southern Plains remained extremely dry, however, causing drought conditions to expand across central and northern Texas, most of Oklahoma, and a wide swath of western and southern Kansas in early October.

“The Southern Plains is dry, dry, and dry!” commented one source at midweek. Nearly all of Oklahoma is now experiencing extreme-to-exceptional drought, as are the southern and western halves of Kansas.

The impact of drought conditions was plainly evident in USDA’s latest crop report. With the corn harvest now at 85% complete in Texas, 61% in Kansas, and 19% in Colorado, good or excellent ratings were assigned to just 17% of the acreage in Texas, 22% in Kansas, and 30% in Colorado. Corn in the poor or very poor categories totaled 52-54% of the acreage in Texas and Kansas, along with 31% in Colorado.

The Kansas soybean crop was 30% harvested, with 25% rated as good or excellent and 46% as poor or very poor. The sorghum crop was 95% harvested in Texas, compared with 25-30% in the rest of the region, with good or excellent ratings assigned to just 10% of Oklahoma’s crop, 17% in Texas, 21% in Kansas, and 42% in Colorado. Sorghum rated as poor or very poor totaled 61% of the acreage in Oklahoma, 54% in Kansas, 42% in Texas, and 19% in Colorado.

Cotton conditions were even worse in the region. With the harvest reported at 35% complete in Texas, 16% in Kansas, and just 1% in Oklahoma, poor or very poor ratings were assigned to fully 72% of the acreage in Texas, compared with 58% in Kansas and 48% in Oklahoma.

Winter wheat planting was 85% complete in Colorado, 58% in Texas, 50% in Kansas, and 38% in Oklahoma by Oct. 9, with progress delayed by dry conditions. “This wheat is being planted in some very poor conditions,” commented one regional source. “Some will come up, some won’t. Without moisture to help it, there will be a very poor demand for nitrogen on wheat.”

South Central:

Severe thunderstorms brought rain and damaging winds to parts of Middle Tennessee at midweek, prompting several tornado warnings and causing widespread power outages from downed trees. Strong thunderstorms were also reported in central and eastern Kentucky.

Spotty rain and severe weather moved through Arkansas at midweek as well. Frost was possible in parts of northern Arkansas by the weekend.

Moisture left over from Hurricane Julia brought rainfall to southern Louisiana and southern Mississippi during the week. Forecasts warned of damaging winds and large hail in parts of Mississippi at midweek.

The corn harvest was 67% complete in Kentucky and 82% in Tennessee by Oct. 9, with 27-37% of the acreage rated as good or excellent. The cotton crop was 75% harvested in Louisiana, 54% in Mississippi, 34% in Arkansas, and 13% in Tennessee, with good or excellent ratings assigned to 33% of the acreage in Louisiana, 46% in Tennessee, and 67-73% in Mississippi and Arkansas.

Soybean growers had 87% of the crop harvested in Louisiana, 63% in Mississippi, 47% in Arkansas, 32% in Tennessee, and 31% in Kentucky, with good or excellent ratings assigned to 68% of the acreage in Mississippi, 59% in Arkansas, 56% in Kentucky, 47% in Tennessee, and just 20% in Louisiana. The rice harvest was 86-99% complete in the South Central region by Oct. 9.

Southeast:

Weather conditions in Alabama and Georgia were mostly mild and dry through the first half of the week, but a line of strong thunderstorms brought rain and gusty winds to parts of both states at midweek.

Cooler weather also moved into North Carolina as the week progressed, with an increased chance of rain on Oct. 13-14. Showers and thunderstorms moved through central Florida as well. The state continues to assess the significant damage caused by Hurricane Ian. The deadly storm also brought heavy rainfall to the Carolinas and parts of Virginia in late September.

Growers were harvesting corn, soybeans, cotton, tobacco, and peanuts in the Southeast. With 88% of the corn crop in the bin in North Carolina, just 29% of the acreage fell in the good or excellent categories on Oct. 9, with 46% rated as poor or very poor. The state’s soybean harvest was 23% complete, with 64% of the crop rated as good or excellent.

The cotton harvest was 17-24% complete in the region, with good or excellent ratings assigned to 59% of the acreage in Georgia, 60% in South Carolina, 63% in North Carolina, 71% in Alabama, and 78% in Virginia.

The peanut harvest was 58-61% complete in Virginia and Florida, 43-47% in Alabama and Georgia, and 28-34% in the Carolinas by Oct. 9. Fully 91% of Alabama’s peanut crop was rated as good or excellent, compared with 80-82% in Virginia and South Carolina, 70% in North Carolina, 61% in Georgia, and 57% in Florida.

Transportation

US Gulf:

Guidewall replacement work at Bayou Sorrel Lock was reported sporadically blocking Monday-through-Friday travel between 6:30 a.m. and 5:00 p.m. Travel through Harvey Lock has been unavailable since Oct. 2 due to low water conditions. The Coast Guard recommended tows to detour through Algiers Lock.

Colorado Lock repairs underway since July 28 were scheduled to conclude on Oct. 14. The work has closed the site to traffic daily between 7:00 a.m. and 5:00 p.m. Delays were heard up to 10 hours on Oct. 9-10.

Travel through the Atchafalaya River’s Little Island Pass, Middle Island Pass, and Riverside Pass remains unavailable due to the presence of active underwater pipelines. Vessels can bypass the restrictions by detouring through the Port Allen Route.

Restrictions on towing lengths and widths remained in place on unassisted lockages at Algiers Lock, limiting vessels traveling without a support boat to four standard barges or two 30,000 mt tankers per turn. Larger lockages are possible with industry assistance. Delays were reported at 4-11 hours through week.

A Belle Chasse Bridge construction project slated to run through the end of the year is likely to prompt intermittent shutdowns lasting for up to 12 hours at a time. Industrial Lock passages were quoted up to nine hours early in the week.

Mississippi River:

Historic low water conditions continued to plague barge movements on the lower Mississippi River during the week.

Draft limits remained at 9.5 feet in both directions for the full length of the river, a 20-25% reduction from limits during normal operating conditions, although some barges were reported traveling with drafts up to 10.5 feet. Barge counts were also down to a maximum 25 units, below the 30-40 barges typically permitted. Taken together, cargo capacity on some tows was effectively reduced by more than 50% from normal levels.

Repeated groundings at multiple points along the river have also slowed travel, with many incidents causing a complete halt to movements lasting 12-48 hours. Some docks have reportedly set loading and unloading draft maximums at seven feet, further stretching delivery windows.

Dredging operations were underway to correct shoaling at multiple points along the river. At least 180 tows pushing more than 2,800 barges were in the queue to pass Stack Island (Mile 485) on Oct. 10, reportedly setting a record for the river’s largest transportation backlog. A dredging operation that closed the river on Oct. 1-5 continued to necessitate staggered one-way transits during the week, with delays stretching to seven days or more.

Dredging of the Baton Rouge Harbor on Oct. 7-15 forced vessels to transit at lower speeds. A dredging operation scheduled to begin on Oct. 11 at Mile 681 was anticipated to prompt one 24-hour shutdown every 48 hours, continuing through the project’s estimated Oct. 17 conclusion.

The river gauge at Vicksburg, Miss., was posted at 4.26 feet on Oct. 11, below the area’s Low Stage threshold, and was expected to drop to 2.20 feet by Oct. 25. The St. Louis gauge was observed at (-)2.28 feet and falling on Oct. 11.

Channel maintenance underway since Sept. 26 at Mile 618 wrapped up on Oct. 10, ending a period of southbound travel shutdowns during daylight hours.

A pipeline removal project scheduled for Mile 189 is scheduled for Oct. 17 through Nov. 8, prompting nightly closures between 7:00 p.m. and 7:00 a.m. The work is slated to pause on Oct. 23-25 and Nov. 1-3, reopening the area to 24-hour navigation.

Repairs underway at the I-10 bridge triggered a safety advisory at Miles 228-230, in effect for all boats and tows transiting the area. The effort is slated to continue 24 hours per day through the end of June 2023, also prompting intermittent navigation outages at the site.

Old River Lock at Mile 305 is completely shut to navigation through Nov. 13 due to miter gate replacement. Vessels traveling to the Red River are advised to detour through the Atchafalaya River while work is underway.

Illinois River:

Sources reported raised wickets at Peoria Lock and LaGrange Lock during the week, requiring lockages through both locations. Waits were observed up to six hours at Peoria Lock, while Corps data showed intermittent five-hour delays at LaGrange.Starved Rock Lock waits peaked at seven hours on Oct. 8-9.

The Illinois Waterway will effectively close to commercial navigation for roughly four months in the second and third quarters of 2023. A similar round of closures shut the river in 2020.

Ohio River:

Low water levels continued to be reported on the Ohio River, forcing nine-foot draft restrictions on the full length of the river. The limits were in effect for the Tennessee and Cumberland Rivers as well. In addition, reduced depths in the Cairo, Ill., area were reported to limit towing lengths through the region.

The Cannelton Lock main chamber is shut for miter gate replacement through Nov. 11, prompting detours through the auxiliary chamber. Most tows were noted to require at least two passes to clear the lock. Long delays were reported as a result, with vessels waiting up to five days to pass during the week.

The main chamber at Montgomery Lock is slated to close from Oct. 17 through Dec. 16 for repairs and maintenance. Vessels will be required to detour through the secondary chamber, with delays expected. Belleville Lock waits were noted at 5-12 hours on Oct. 10.

On the Tennessee River, a long-term construction effort at Kentucky Lock triggered intermittent delays up to 12 hours during the week. Boats passing Wilson Lock saw waits up to 11 hours.

Planned closures at the Cumberland River’ Barkley Lock were revised to Oct. 17-21, sources said, shutting the lock to navigation daily between 6:00 a.m. and 6:00 p.m. for inspections and repairs to the Bio-Acoustic Fish Fence system.

Arkansas River:

Norrell Lock is reportedly shut to daylight-hour navigation through Nov. 20, blocking passages daily between 7:00 a.m. and 7:00 p.m. Towing passing the site during overnight hours are limited to 70 feet of width. Additionally, the lock is scheduled to close completely to navigation on Jan. 30-31, 2023.

LSB Terminates UAN Agreement with CVR; Producer to Market Directly to Customers

LSB Industries Inc.’s subsidiary, Pryor Chemical Co., on Sept. 30 provided notice of termination under the UAN agreement with Coffeyville Resources Nitrogen Fertilizers LLC (CVR), dated March 3, 2016 (GM March 14, 2016). The termination will be effective as of Dec. 31, 2022.

Under the agreement, CVR had the exclusive right to purchase substantially all of the UAN produced at the Pryor, Okla., facility. LSB said Pryor elected to terminate the agreement in order to market the product itself.

“Since the initiation of our original agreement more than six years ago, CVR has been an excellent partner and we appreciate their outstanding work as they close out the remainder of 2022,” an LSB spokesman told Green Markets. “Beginning in 2023, LSB will market Pryor’s UAN directly to our end customers. We are excited to continue our support for the American farmer and do our part to feed the world. We also look forward to finding new and creative ways to deliver value to both our customers and to our company.”

At the time the agreement was struck in 2016, it was estimated that the plant had a UAN capacity of approximately 300,000 st/y; however, LSB upgrades over the years have taken that to 350,000 st/y.

Prior to the agreement with CVR, LSB had a similar one with Koch Nitrogen Co., which began in 2009 and ended with the CVR agreement.

Nutrien Mine Worker Seriously Injured

A Nutrien Ltd. employee was seriously injured at the Cory potash mine in Saskatchewan when a piece of a tunnel roof fell on him.

“Safety is always our first priority, and we take it very seriously,” a Nutrien spokesman told Green Markets. “Unfortunately, on Thursday Sept. 29, one of our colleagues, an underground employee at our Cory potash mine in Saskatchewan, was seriously injured in a ground fall – when a piece of tunnel roof falls down.

“Our Mines Rescue Team responded and provided immediate care prior to his being transported to Saskatoon hospital, where he is undergoing treatment. We are hopeful for his recovery, and are working with the Saskatchewan Mine Inspector to review the incident,” the spokesman added.

Nutrien Ltd. – Management Brief

Nutrien Ltd. on Oct. 3 announced the appointment of Chris Reynolds as its Executive Vice President and President of Potash, effective immediately. He has been co-leading the Potash business for the past year.

Reynolds has been with Nutrien for over 18 years in various sales leadership positions, most recently as Senior Vice President, Sales. He and his family will be relocating to Saskatoon from the Chicago area.

In addition, Nutrien announced the appointment of Mark Thompson to the newly formed role of Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer, effective Nov. 1. He has been with Nutrien for over 11 years and served in a number of leadership and executive roles across the business, most recently as Executive Vice President and Chief Strategy & Sustainability Officer.

In this position, he will lead commercial planning, as well as transportation, distribution and logistics, and global sales of crop nutrients for Nutrien’s Potash and Nitrogen & Phosphate businesses. He will also oversee Nutrien’s Economics and Market Research teams.

Tennessee Farmers Cooperative

Andy Woodward has been named Chief Operating Officer for Tennessee Farmers Cooperative, replacing Phillip Farmer, who was named Chief Innovation Officer. Most recently, Woodward was a TFC Regional Manager; prior to that, he was Manager of the Marshall Farmers Cooperative for 15 years.

Woodward also worked in agronomy sales and service for Montgomery Farmers Cooperative after he finished a TFC management training program soon after graduating from Austin Peay State University with a degree in agriculture with a focus on agribusiness.