US
Gulf:
New NOLA urea
barge business was quoted in the $620-$672/st FOB range, down from the week-ago
$640-$687/st FOB. Early-week business was reported toward the high end of the
range, but $620/st FOB was a common number by midweek.
Eastern
Cornbelt:
Fueled by
additional softening in NOLA barge pricing, the regional urea market slipped to
$695-$705/st FOB Cincinnati, Ohio, down sharply from last week’s broad
$715-$745/st FOB range. Sources also confirmed spot pricing out of Illinois
River terminals at the $700/st FOB level during the week.
Western Cornbelt:
Urea pricing during the week reportedly
dropped to $675-$680/st FOB St. Louis, Mo., down from a broad $690-$725/st FOB
at last report. The top of the regional market continued to be quoted as high
as $725/st FOB Caruthersville, Mo.
Southern Plains:
Urea prices were falling
in the Southern Plains. The Catoosa/Inola, Okla., market was
pegged in a broad range at $680-$710/st FOB, down from the prior week’s
$710-$730/st FOB, with the lower numbers reported later in the week. Urea
offers FOB Houston, Texas, were quoted at the $725/st FOB level at midweek.
South Central:
The urea market was pegged at $710-$740/st FOB in the South Central region, with the low confirmed at Memphis, Tenn., and the high at Little Rock, Ark. While the last confirmed business at Convent, La., was reported at the $685/st FOB level at mid-month, sources said tons were sold out at that location during the week.
Southeast:
Urea prices were
unchanged at $700-$725/st FOB port terminals in the Southeast, depending on
location.
India:
Sources said India
will need at least two more tenders to close out the year. One trader said the
country needs at least 3 million mt to close out the season. Anything less
could put the country into panic buying mode for the next season, said another
trader.
The next tender is
expected to be called in mid-October. The call could come earlier if all the
tonnage awarded in the recent RCF tender has nominated vessels. The shipping
deadline for the RCF tender is Oct. 21. Sources expect to see higher prices in
the next tender.
January-July 2022
imports of urea were reported at 5.8 million mt by Trade Data Monitor, up 62% from the 3.6 million mt imported during
the same period in 2021. The top five suppliers accounted for 3 million mt.
|
Supplying
Country
|
Quantity (mt)
|
|
Oman
|
971,000
|
|
China
|
699,000
|
|
Saudi Arabia
|
486,000
|
|
United Arab
Emirates
|
462,000
|
|
Qatar
|
457,000
|
Russia was
officially the sixth major supplier with 435,000 mt. Sources said, however, the
319,000 mt identified as coming from Finland were also most likely from Russia,
for a total of 744,000 mt. The tonnage reportedly from Finland, said one
trader, probably was railed in and re-exported.
July 2022 imports
were reported at 1.1 million mt, up marginally from the 1 million mt imported
during July 2021. The main suppliers were China with 579,000 mt, for 51% of all
urea imports, followed by Russia with 139,000 mt, representing a 12% share of
the import market.
An estimated 3.7
million mt should have been delivered to India by July 2022, according to a
count of tonnage purchased under tenders. The remaining tonnage, said sources,
is most likely tied to the long-term contract signed between the Indian
government and OMIFCO. Steady cargoes from the Omani company are expected each
month.
Russia/Black Sea:
Shipping line-ups
showed July urea exports from Russia at 255,800 mt. Trade Data Monitor does not have any numbers for July 2022, but
reported the July 2021 exports from Russia at 499,000 mt. Many of the tons were
being shipped out of Russian ports in the Baltic Sea. Exports from the Black
Sea are largely limited to ports in the east because northern ports are in the
war zone.
Material from
Georgia, Uzbekistan, and other countries to the east of the Black Sea are
pegged at $700/mt FOB. Russian urea coming out of the Black Sea is reported at
$527-$530/mt FOB. Sources said the lower price is an inducement for buyers to
take the tons.
Even though
fertilizer is not covered by the sanctions imposed on Russia by the US and EU,
traders are nervous about handling any Russian material in case the rules
change. Already the EU has imposed sanctions on financing and insuring vessels
loading at Russian ports. As a result, finding vessels to take the Russian urea
is difficult.
Traders noted that
Iran has found ways to work around the sanctions imposed against it because it
has had more than 10 years to find ways to get their urea into the global
market. Handlers of Russian product are still learning maneuvers such as how to
swap paperwork to get past the Western sanctions.
There are reports
that some urea railed from neighboring countries to the eastern Black Sea ports
was diverted. Sources said the Russian rail lines reportedly forced some
fertilizer-laden rail cars to a siding so the Russian military could use the
lines to move military equipment and personnel. One trader said his cargo was
delayed about a day.
Indonesia:
No new sales were
reported out of Indonesia. Sources said the focus now is to move out the tons
already booked. The lack of business keeps the price at $675/mt FOB for
granular urea.
The European
market continues to be a magnet for urea. Sources said the high price to
produce urea in Europe has led companies to look for material elsewhere for
imports. Egypt has long been a major supplier. However, in recent months Indonesia
and Malaysia have also appeared on the radar screen.
Sources said the
combination of freight costs, ship availability, and softer prices in Southeast
Asia has led traders to look for deals from that area into Europe. Last month
the United Kingdom took a cargo from Indonesia. Sources now report that another
cargo from Malaysia is bound for Europe. In both cases, the deals were handled
by traders.
While regular
shipments are not expected, sources said more Southeast Asian urea could be
finding its way into Europe as long as European prices remain high.
Middle East:
Sources said Arab
Gulf producers were quiet as they processed the paperwork to ship out awards
from the RCF tender and handle their long-term contract sales.
The paper market
for the Arab Gulf into the fourth quarter is reportedly at $680/mt FOB. This
would represent an increase over the current price, based on the RCF tender. A
price increase is expected on the heels of the next Indian tender.
Egyptian producers
were also quiet. The lack of any new business denied any price sampling out of
the country, leaving the price at the $850/mt FOB level set last month. Sources
said the netback to Egypt from India, based on the RCF tender price, would be
$640-$650/mt FOB. However, buyers and sellers agree this is too low for
Egyptian product.
Strong demand in Europe
for imports will keep upward pressure on the Egyptian price. However, buyers
are also finding that there are other suppliers who could replace the Egyptian
tons at lower prices. Sources expect to see the price come down from the
$850/mt FOB soon, but then go up again. Some are estimating the Egyptian price
could return to the $900s/mt FOB in the fourth quarter.
For now, however,
the paper market is calling the fourth quarter at $750-$780/mt FOB. Traders
said they would be happy to secure a cargo at $760/mt FOB, but added that they
doubt if such a deal could be made.
China:
Reports are
circulating that some of the smaller producers are quietly moving tons to
portside warehouses in the hope that they will get clearance to export the
material. Sources said quiet inquiries are circulating among international
traders, many of whom are skittish about making a deal unless all the proper
customs paperwork is completed.
January-August 2022
urea exports were reported at 1.2 million mt by Trade Data Monitor, down 58% from the 2.9 million mt exported
during the same period in 2021. India has dominated the buyers so far this year,
taking 332,000 mt. This is down dramatically from the 1.1 million mt sent to
India in January-August 2021. Other buyers this year were South Korea with
269,000 mt, and Pakistan with 204,000 mt.
August 2022
exports were reported at 351,000 mt, down 34% from the 261,000 mt exported
during August 2021. Pakistan topped the buyers with 103,000 mt, for 29% of the
exports. India took 98,000 mt for 28% of sales, followed by South Korea with
55,000 mt for 16% of the exports.
Pakistan:
International traders said the devastating floods in Pakistan have probably eliminated any possibility of a successful harvest this season. The government would do well to focus on purchasing more food on the global market instead of trying to replace the fertilizer lost in the disaster, said one trader .
Sources said there
will most likely not be enough time to plant and harvest crops once the flood
waters recede. Besides damages to the field, stored fertilizer in flooded
warehouses is also damaged. The next season will require more purchases to
supplement domestic production, said sources.
Brazil:
Urea prices took a quick slide this week. While early-week quotes were as high as $750-$760/mt CFR, by the end of the week sources put the range at $670-$720/mt CFR.
In midweek,
sources reported a deal in Rio Grande that showed a netback to the ports of
$700/mt FOB ex-warehouse. Sources were clear that the product was not Iranian,
which has seen quotes at $700/mt CFR portside.
Reportedly, a
possible push for lower prices came after urea from Oman and Algeria was
offered at $660/mt CFR because the countries were looking to liquidate large
inventories projected for the fourth quarter. The low offers came just as
buyers were pushing for reduced prices. Buyers reportedly snapped up the deals
quickly.
The paper market
could barely keep up with the actual market. Sources reported the initial price
projection was $740/mt CFR, to quickly drop to $685/mt by midweek. Sources said
$650/mt CFR is expected over the weekend.
Even after the
dramatic slide, sources said they are unsure about the direction of the urea
market. International traders said Brazilian demand, combined with US and
Indian needs, should be enough to hold the line on pricing into the last
quarter of the year, and even push prices a bit higher. An apparent lack of
demand in Brazil, however, is pushing the price down just as the rest of the
world is poised to go up.
Rondonopolis is pegged
at $850-$865/mt FOB ex-warehouse, but that is expected to drop after the
dramatic slide in CFR prices. The Rondonopolis market is similar to that of Rio
Grande, where the deal at $700/mt FOB ex-warehouse began the slide in prices.
Lack of demand remains a major problem
for sellers. Weak rainfall in Mato Grosso has farmers hesitant to step up to buy
product for the upcoming season.