U.S.
Gulf:
NOLA urea barges
took a breather, drifting downward from the week-ago $580-$620/st FOB. Very
little trading was reported, with a firm $563/st FOB confirmed late in the week
for delivery within the next 30 days. Earlier in the week, $575-$584/st FOB was
reported for September.
U.S.
Imports:
June urea imports
were reported at 436,473 st, a 21.0% increase from the year-ago 360,660 st.
July-June volumes were noted at 6.17 million st, up 21.9% from last year’s 5.06
million st.
Imports
originating from Qatar stood at 1.20 million st for the July-June fertilizer
year. Russia’s 976,717 st total was good for second place, ahead of Oman’s
921,813 st. Saudi Arabia added 899,446 st for the period.
U.S. Exports:
Urea exports for
June firmed 547.0% year-over-year, to 75,825 st from 11,719 st. July-June
exports were up 20.1%, to 880,144 st from 732,995 st in the prior year.
Eastern
Cornbelt:
The urea market
was pegged at $610-$630/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with both the high and
low reported at Cincinnati, Ohio, during the week. New offers FOB Ottawa, Ill.,
were quoted at the $620/st FOB level at midweek.
Western Cornbelt:
The urea market was steady at
$610-$640/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, depending on location, with the low
confirmed at St. Louis, Mo.
Southern Plains:
The urea market in the Southern Plains
strengthened to $620-$625/st FOB Catoosa/Inola, Okla., and Enid, Okla., with
the Houston, Texas, market pegged firmly at the $625/st FOB level at midweek.
South Central:
Urea prices were reported in a broad range at
$600-$650/st FOB in the South Central region, with the low confirmed at
Convent, La., and the upper end at Memphis, Tenn. Kentucky sources pegged the
common price at the $625/st FOB level out of Ohio River terminals at midweek.
Southeast:
Urea prices were quoted at $610-$640/st
FOB port terminals in the Southeast, depending on location, up from the
previous week’s $600-$620/st FOB range. The common price FOB Wilmington, N.C.,
was pegged at the $620/st level at midweek. No tons were reportedly available
at Savannah, Ga.
India:
The next urea
tender is expected during the last week of August. The country remains about 1
million mt short of urea, according to all estimates. Sources said the next
tender will likely be like the most recent one, with the buyer looking for no
more than 500,000 mt.
Sources said the
price levels for the next tender will be determined by traders offering Chinese
product. Chinese traders already see a good profit in the difference between
the domestic price of $360-$370/mt FOB ex-factory and the $470-$480/mt FOB for
exports. This gap could be an incentive for the traders to hold to their
pricing rather than overprice their product and miss selling to India.
Sources reported a tightness in the granular market, leading traders to predict that prills will dominate the Indian tender. Part of the tightness is coming from China, where the government is holding back on permission to export granular, but is granting permits for prills.
China:
The domestic
market is pegged at $360-$370/mt FOB ex-factory. The export market is still
publicly at $470-$480/mt FOB, based on the previous Indian tender. Sources said
offers are being made at $490-$500/mt FOB, but only for
material being held for the next Indian tender.
The main issue
lining up Chinese urea is getting past the export permit procedures. Sources
noted that once permission is granted to export a cargo, it must be moved out
within 60 days. Reportedly, there is
discussion about some urea already cleared at $485-$490/mt FOB, but no
confirmations that these deals have closed. Sources said the holders of these
tons are looking to move it out quickly in case the Chinese government changes
its policy on urea exports.
Chinese traders
are looking at building up reserves of prilled urea for offers in the upcoming
Indian tender. Granular urea is being held back by customs officials for the
domestic reserves. At the same time, they are looking at the price gap between
the domestic and export prices. Sources said these traders are expressing a
willingness to keep the export price at the $100/mt distance from the domestic
price to ensure getting awards in the tender.
The attitude of the Chinese traders is frustrating to the international traders, who are facing higher prices from the Arab Gulf and Egypt. Another tender that closes around $520/mt CFR into India could mean that only product from China will be considered.
Southeast Asia:
Information about
the future of the Kaltim V plant is being closely held by the government and
company. Sources now do not expect to see the plant running until at least
February 2023.
Sources said the
company has enough material on hand to cover its export orders. A cargo of
Kaltim granular urea held by Keytrade is reportedly on its way to Europe, as urea producers there find it is cheaper to import
rather than produce their own due to high natural gas prices.
Between what
Kaltim has in its warehouses and what can be made by the other producers, the
domestic market is well covered. Once the tons in the warehouses are gone,
however, granular product in the area will become tight. Sources said the
region may be facing a situation where no granular urea is available for sale.
Atlas in the
Philippines is already feeling the impact of limited granular urea in the area.
The buyer had to scrap a 6,000 mt granular urea tender because no one made an
offer. Usually there are sufficient offers to make the process competitive and
to offer a glimpse at where pricing might be headed.
Sri Lanka is
beginning to distribute urea to its farmers after the first shipment of 44,000
mt under an Indian line of credit arrived from Oman. A second cargo of 25,000
mt is expected soon.
The island nation
was desperate for urea after its former president banned the import of all
fertilizers except organic fertilizer. The result was a national average drop
of 30% in paddy rice output, and in some areas as much as a 50% drop. The loss
in agricultural output hit the country’s economy, leading it to exhaust its
foreign reserves. The loan from India was designed to help the cash-strapped
country begin to recover.
The decision to
ban all but organic fertilizers was evident in the urea import numbers.
According to Trade Data Monitor, Sri
Lanka imported 491,000 mt of urea in 2018, 378,000 mt in 2019, and 540,000 mt
in 2020. The import ban, which became effective May 2021, dropped the imports
to 162,000 mt.
So far this year
Sri Lanka has imported 70,000 mt, compared to 159,000 mt for the same period in
2021. The total amount of urea imported from June 2021 through June 2022 was
38,000 mt.
Middle East:
Sources reported
deals done at $620/mt FOB. The move fits with demand from Europe as producers
there see importing urea as a better option than making it.
While Arab Gulf
producers look to Europe for strong netbacks, their efforts to push prices
higher keep facing pushback from Asian buyers.
While demand is steady, sources said buyers are unwilling to pay much more for
the product.
Producers are
keeping a close eye on the Chinese price. If the Chinese traders allow for prices
close to those offered in the last Indian tender, the Arab Gulf producers may
forego supporting any business into India.
Prices have
stalled in Egypt. After a dramatic run-up beginning in late July, sources
reported that prices have topped off at $765/mt FOB and stopped. Efforts to
move the price with rumors of $775/mt FOB and $780/mt FOB early in the week
were squashed as buyers and traders around the world pushed back hard.
The Libyan
Fertilizer Company announced that it has restarted
its #2 urea and ammonia plant after a
two-month shutdown. The plant is expected to turn out 80% of its 1,400 mt/d
rated output. The #1 plant is expected back online later this month.
Ethiopia:
Urea imports for
January-July 2022 were reported at 406,000 mt by Trade Data Monitor. This represents a 6% drop compared to the
431,000 mt imported during the same period of 2021.
July 2022 imports were reported at 61,000 mt, down about 31% from the 88,000 mt imported during July 2021. The main suppliers were Egypt with 50,000 mt for 82% of the import market, and the United Arab Emirates with 10,000 mt for the remaining 18% of the market.
Brazil:
Urea prices
shifted to $660-$680/mt CFR with more talk than trade taking place. Reports of
small lots being sold at $640/mt CFR remained elusive to nail down. Some buyers
were arguing not only for the $640/mt CFR, but also for
$10/mt less because of a growing backlog of urea waiting to be unloaded from
arriving vessels.
Sources said
prices in the upper-$600s/mt CFR are not sustainable. They point to the rumored
willingness of Chinese traders to hold the line on pricing into the Indian
tenders as an argument that prices need to come off for Brazil as well.
Rondonopolis is
reported at $800-$815/mt FOB ex-warehouse, reflecting a tightening of the
market price. Sources said slow demand is encouraging buyers to keep pushing
for greater reductions in the price.
Imports for
January-July 2022 were reported at 3.8 million mt by Trade Data Monitor. This is down about 9% from the 4.1 million mt
imported during the same period in 2021.
Oman supplied 814,000
mt in the first seven months of the year. Rounding off the top five suppliers
were Nigeria with 736,000 mt, Qatar with 677,000 mt, Russia with 625,000 mt, and
Algeria with 365,000 mt.
July 2022 imports were reported at 671,000 mt, up about 5% from the 637,000 mt received during July 2021. Russia accounted for 21% of the imports in July with 137,000 mt. Nigeria supplied 19.6% of the imports with 131,000 mt, and Qatar sent 113,000 mt for 17% of imports.
Black
Sea:
The
range for the estimated price of prilled urea out of the Black Sea has widened
to $555-$610/mt FOB. Sources said the deal to move Ukrainian wheat out of the
region safely has not yet rolled over to fertilizers. While some Russian urea
has come out of ports in the Eastern portion of the Black Sea, sources said so
far nothing is coming out of the recently opened Ukrainian ports.