U.S. Gulf:
NOLA granular urea
prices perked up during the week, firming to $515-$558/st FOB from the week-ago
$495-$525/st FOB. The new business occurred before India announced a tender for
500,000 mt of urea versus the expected 1.5 million mt, however, which many saw
as putting a damper on the market.
U.S. Imports:
May urea imports
totaled 603,981 st, up 2.3% from the year-ago 590,160 st. July-May totals were
reported at 5.74 million st, up 22.0% increase from the year-ago 4.70 million
st.
July-May imports
from Qatar stood at 1.09 million st. Russia’s 186,516 st total for May moved
that country into second place with 903,448 st, ahead of Oman’s 866,523 st.
Saudi Arabia added 832,757 st through the period.
The U.S. Census
Bureau released corrected import data for Qatar, reducing April imports
originating from Qatar to 109,128 st, down from 600,207 st reported previously.
U.S. Exports:
May urea exports
moved 318.3% higher year-over-year, to 160,879 st from 38,460 st. July-May
totals were up 11.5%, to 804,319 st from 721,277 st.
Eastern Cornbelt:
A firming NOLA
barge market pushed urea terminal prices up roughly $15-$20/st from last week,
to $565-$590/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, depending on location. Sources
quoted the Cincinnati, Ohio, market at $565/st FOB early in the week before
firming to $575-$580/st FOB as the week progressed.
Western Cornbelt:
Urea prices were up roughly $20/st, to
$555-$580/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low confirmed at St. Louis,
Mo., and the high in Iowa.
Northern Plains:
Fueled
by a firming NOLA market, urea pricing moved up to $610-$680/st in
the Dakotas, depending on location and supplier, up from the last reported
range of $545-$610/st. Sources confirmed the bulk of new offers in the
$630-$690/st DEL range in North Dakota, with the Carrington, N.D., market
pegged at the $640/st FOB level.
The St. Paul, Minn., urea market was
quoted at $565-$575/st FOB for the last offers, but sources said most of the
tons there had been cleaned up by mid-July. In the Pacific Northwest, urea
prices firmed $30/st on June 13, moving to $625/st FOB Rivergate, Ore.
Northeast:
The Northeast urea market was up slightly
at $600-$630/st FOB Baltimore, Md., and other regional terminals, with the East
Liverpool, Ohio, market pegged at the $615/st FOB level at midweek.
Eastern Canada:
The urea market in Eastern Canada was
reported in a broad range at C$1,180-$1,300/mt FOB during the week, depending
on location and supplier, down considerably from the last C$1,240-$1,465/mt FOB
offers confirmed in June.
India:
IPL called a urea
tender to close on July 20 with a shipping deadline of Aug. 31. The Indian
company also said it would be buying only 500,000 mt in this tender.
For more than a
month, sources have been saying that the next Indian tender would need to secure
at least 1.5 million mt to allow the country to keep up with demand. Two
follow-up tenders would also have to pull in similar amounts to ensure that the
country closes out the application season without any shortages and has enough
urea in reserve to start the next season.
The move to buy
only 500,000 mt is expected to have a dampening effect on global prices.
Sources noted that Arab Gulf and Indonesian producers have been holding back on
spot deals to ensure plenty of material for a tender designed to take more than
1 million mt.
International
traders said the surplus of product left over from the tender could push down
prices. In general, sources all agreed that prices offered in the tender will
be lower than the $716-$721/mt CFR achieved in the last tender. A lot of
discussion focused on $650/mt CFR, with others arguing for even lower prices.
Traders also said
the most likely scenario will have another urea tender for 500,000 mt called
soon after the IPL awards are made and letters of intent to buy are accepted.
Prices could still be lower than the current price, but not below the price
from the July 20 tender. By the third 500,000 mt tender that many anticipate,
prices are expected to have most likely rebounded to at least current levels.
Sources said they
expect to see mostly Arab Gulf and Indonesian urea offered in the latest tender.
One trader said maybe one cargo from China might be involved, but he would not
bet on it.
The Indian
government has been talking with Russia about securing its fertilizers needs.
The most commonly heard vehicle for the trade would be either barters of grain
for fertilizer or payment through a rupee-ruble exchange program. This latter
plan is already in place for smaller deals. Reportedly, it is being ramped up
to handle oil and natural gas purchases as well.
Sources said any
deal for urea outside the current tender process bumps up against Indian law
and regulations. Purchases of DAP and MOP can be handled in a multitude of ways
that can allow the importers to avoid U.S. and E.U. sanctions. Agricultural urea,
however, must be imported only through public tenders, according to Indian
regulations.
Reportedly, the
government is moving to make the necessary changes that would allow for
government-to-government urea deals to take place outside the usual tender
process. However, implementing those changes could still take months.
The Indian
government requires all urea imported for farm use to be coated with neem. This
coating helps delay absorption into the soil and makes the urea unusable for
industrial buyers. The steps were taken to ensure that the highly subsidized
urea for farmers was not being diverted to industrial buyers, who must pay the
market rate for their urea.
Local media
reported that some companies have worked out a way to remove the neem coating
and divert subsidized urea to industrial use. According to the government, about
1 million mt/y has been diverted to industrial use, costing the government
about $750 million in subsidies.
The Department of
Fertilizer created a “Fertilizer Flying Squad” to conduct surprise inspections
of urea handling facilities to end the black marketing of subsidized urea. The
squad is also investigating reports of urea smuggling to Nepal.
Groundbreaking
occurred for the first nano urea plant by IFFCO. The product is expected to
replace standard urea, which could lead to an end to urea imports by 2025. The
new plant is expected to be turning out nano urea in the second half of 2023.
Indian media
reported that a storm at an RCFL bagging facility damaged 50,000 bags of urea,
or about 2,250 mt. The bags were prepped and ready for loading on a train for
delivery to local distributors.
China:
Availability of
urea for export is a question international traders cannot answer. Sources said
the official line from Beijing is that the severe restrictions on urea exports
will remain in place through April 2023. At the same time, however, there are
reports that some cargoes are being exported.
With an Indian
tender closing soon, sources would normally begin calculating how many tons
will be offered from China, Russia, the Arab Gulf, and Indonesia. This time,
however, few think Chinese material will be offered.
Sources said talk
of an export price of $550/mt FOB would not be out of line, given the estimated
domestic price and the price out of the Arab Gulf. However, there is no
evidence of new prices paid by traders or end users, leaving the last public
price of $685-$690/mt FOB still in place. Once awards are issued in the IPL
tender, sources said market watchers can calculate new estimated netbacks for
Chinese urea.
Indonesia:
No new deals have
moved the urea price from the $547/mt FOB mark from late last month. Sources
said Kaltim is gearing up for a tender next week. The most likely timing will
allow for the material sold to be included in the Indian tender. That would
mean August shipments.
Middle East:
Opportunities to
check prices this week were limited due to a quiet global market and the EID
holiday. Sources said some small spot deals were done at $580/mt FOB, but without
confirmation of buyer or seller.The price, however, fits with rumors of
the price out of China and the $547/mt FOB out of Indonesia.
Ethiopia:
Imports of urea
for the first half of 2022 were reported at 345,000 mt by Trade Data Monitor. This is marginally up from the 343,000 mt
imported during the same period of 2021.Second-quarter imports were
reported at 345,000 mt, up from the 155,000 mt imported during April -June
2021.
June 2022 imports
totaled 194,000 mt, dramatically up from the 43,000 mt imported in June 2021.
Egyptian urea dominated the market with 150,000 mt for 77% of the imports. The
United Arab Emirates came in second with 44,000 mt for the remaining 23% of
imports.
Brazil:
Urea prices slipped
to $610-$630/mt CFR, down from the prior week’s $650-$680/mt CFR range. Sources
reported rumors of Russian material being offered at the $600/mt CFR level, but
without confirmation. International sources said the low price could be seen as
an incentive to bypass the U.S. and E.U. sanctions against Russia.
Whatever the
price, Brazilian sources said demand for urea is down. Reportedly, farmers are
waiting for better crop prices before stepping up to make any major purchases.
The lack of interest in buying urea is
also being felt inRondonópolis.
Sources said prices drifted lower to $730-$780/mt FOB ex-warehouse.
Black Sea:
Sources report the
estimated price for urea out of the Black Sea has moved up to $520-$545/mt FOB.
The lack of transparency in the deals done with Russia makes confirming the
price difficult. The upper end of the price range represents where prices could
be based on prices from the Arab Gulf. The lower end fits with reports that
some countries are trying to work out deals below the existing market price.
One trader noted
that if Russia is able to offer tons into the upcoming IPL/India tender, prices
could crash. Sources said, however, that traders and financial houses remain
wary of handling any Russian material for the open market. The U.S. has made it
clear that urea is not on the sanctioned lists issued by it and the E.U. The
American government has assured bankers and insurance companies they will not
face penalties if they finance urea sales.