Germany
on June 23 triggered the second stage of its three-stage emergency gas plan,
citing a deterioration of natural gas supplies, and raised its gas risk level
to the second-highest “alarm” phase, Bloomberg reported. The final stage would include gas rationing.
Germany
warned that Russia’s moves to cut Europe’s natural gas supplies risked sparking
a collapse in energy markets, drawing a parallel to the role of Lehman Brothers
in triggering the financial crisis earlier this millennium.
With
energy suppliers piling up losses by being forced to cover volumes at high
prices, there is a danger of a spill-over effect for local utilities and their
customers, including consumers and businesses, Germany’s Economy Minister
Robert Habeck was cited by Bloomberg as
saying on June 23 after raising the country’s gas risk level.
Russian state oil and gas major PJSC Gazprom last week cut by 60% the volume of natural gas it delivers to Europe via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline that serves Germany and other European countries. Gazprom blamed the reduction on a technical fault, but it was widely seen in Western Europe as the latest indication that Moscow appears intent on punishing the region for sanctions and military support for Ukraine. Some fear the Russian gas supply reduction may be a precursor to a complete turning off of the supply taps.
Russia’s
move has added urgency to efforts in Germany and elsewhere across Europe to
build up gas inventories in a crucial effort to moderate escalating prices, and
to try and head off the possibility of gas shortages this winter.
In May,
the European Union (E.U.) agreed to require Member States to fill their gas storage
facilities to at least 80% of capacity by Nov. 1. So far, member countries have
been making good progress, with overall European storage levels at 55%,
according to Bloomberg.
But Gazprom’s
cutbacks have put that progress in doubt.
If gas
storage is not filled by the end of summer, the markets will interpret that as
a warning of price spikes or even energy shortages, according to Henning
Gloystein, a Director at Eurasia Group, a political risk firm, as cited by Bloomberg.
If Nord
Stream 1 was shut down completely, Europe would run out of gas in January, Bloomberg cited consulting firm Wood
Mackenzie Vice President Massimo Di Odoardo as saying.
Natural
gas prices are already about six times above where they were a year ago.
The
front month (currently July) European gas contract on the ICE Dutch TTF gas
futures was at €130.4 per megawatt hour (MWh) at 3.59 pm (local time) on July 23,
up 3.325 on the day and versus €127.171 per MWh at close on June 17. The front-month
TTF contract closed at just €80.434 per MWh on Jan. 3, and closed at just
€31.545 per MWh on June 23 last year.
These
latest escalating natural prices are forcing some fertilizer producers to
question whether fertilizer production remains economically sustainable.
Romania’s
biggest fertilizer producer, Azomureş SA, this week decided it is not. On June
22, the producer announced it had taken the decision to temporarily suspend
ammonia production as of June 23, following a rise in natural gas prices and a
decrease in fertilizer prices with the onset of crop harvesting.
Azomureş
said it would continue to produce fertilizers at its Târgu Mureș site until the
existing ammonia stock is depleted.
It said
gas prices had risen from €80 MWh (approximately $84.3 at current exchange
rates) to €125-130 MWh ($131.7-$137.00) in recent days following the problems
in the European gas transmission chain and gas storage operations for the
winter season 2022/2023, as well as the explosion at a Texas, U.S., liquefied
natural gas (LNG) export terminal earlier this month, which is expected to cut
exports for weeks.
“Under
these conditions, it is obvious that fertilizer production is currently not
economically sustainable,” Azomureş said.
The Romanian
company only restarted production in early May (GM April 29, p. 32), after halting fertilizer production on Dec. 17
last year due to “the very high prices” for energy, natural gas, and
electricity (GM Dec. 17, 2021; Dec.
10, 2021).
Production
was restarted only at “limited levels” and only of certain fertilizer
products, namely, ammonium nitrate, calcium ammonium nitrate, urea, and
melamine. Azomureş had at the time anticipated restarting NPK production “in
the coming months.”
Azomureş
staff will continue to work where needed, but the company said laying off staff
may be necessary in the event of an extended production suspension.
“It
is serious what is happening today on the gas market for most European
fertilizer producers,” said Azomureş General Manager Harri Kiiski.
“In
Romania, we continue the dialogue with government authorities in order to apply
economic aid offered by the E.U., already applicable in many European
countries. For example, Bulgaria provides capped price of gas for its
industries, €72 MWh. Until today, Romania does not implement the aid scheme for
energy-intensive industries, given the European legal framework,” he said.
“As a
producer, we know that it is difficult to ensure the necessary quantity for the
next agricultural season if we do not produce during the summer. The scheme
provided by the E.U. must be applied,” said Kiiski.
The
Târgu Mureș-based company’s annual fertilizer production under normal operating
conditions is 1.6 million mt, with approximately 75 percent of the output
destined for Romanian farms, according to the company. It produces granular and
prilled AN, granular CAN, granular urea, and NPs, as well as NPKs.
Azomureş
has been owned by Swiss Group Ameropa, via a subsidiary, since 2012.
OCI NV
last week was reported to be halting production at one of its two ammonia units
in The Netherlands due to spiking natural prices, but would continue downstream
production using imported ammonia (GM June
17, p. 28).
Shares
in Poland’s biggest fertilizer producer, Tarnów-based Grupa Azoty SA, fell this
week as concerns escalated about scarcity of natural gas in Europe as Russia
limits supplies.
By
close on June 23, Azoty shares had fallen to Pln42.94 (approximately $9.68 at
current exchange prices) per share, a 7.66% drop on the day and a 15% drop in
two days.
Erste
Group Bank AG analyst Jakub Szkopek, cited in a Bloomberg report, said spot natural gas prices in Europe had risen
40% last week, adding pressure on fertilizer manufacturers’ margins.
Azoty may be also hit by a rise of thermal coal prices. The company consumes about 1.2 million mt of fuel annually, while prices in Polish coal in contracts are rising to PLn20/GJ from Pln10-12/GJ, Bloomberg reported.
On June
22, Polish Deputy Prime Minister Jacek Sasin said that state companies should not
“maximize” their profits in current tough conditions for customers, seen by
analysts as negative for companies like Azoty, according to the report.