U.S. Gulf:
NOLA
granular barges continued to drift lower at $615-$635/st FOB, down from the
week-ago $630-$645/st FOB. Some sources were hopeful that better inland weather
would mean firm prices next week, at least for inland markets.
Eastern
Cornbelt:
Urea prices
continued to decline at mid-month. The regional market was pegged at
$685-$705/st FOB, depending on location. Most river terminals in the Illinois
and Indiana markets fell in the $685-$700/st FOB range, while the Cincinnati,
Ohio, price was reported at $695-$705/st FOB during the week, down from
$725-$735/st FOB the week before.
In the Great Lakes
region, new urea offers FOB Toledo, Ohio, were reported at the $760/st level
during the week.
Western Cornbelt:
Urea was quoted at $680-$705/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, down $10/st
from the previous week’s high, with the low confirmed at St. Louis and the
upper end reported on a spot basis in the Iowa market. Pricing FOB
Caruthersville, Mo., was pegged at the $700/st FOB level at midweek.
Southern
Plains:
The Southern
Plains urea market was quoted at $670-$710/st FOB, with the low at
Catoosa/Inola, Okla., and sellers reportedly “willing to consider offers.” The
high end of the range was reported at Houston, Texas, at midweek.
The drought was
impacting movement in the region. “We had a pretty fair run at the end of
April, but above-normal temps and below-normal precipitation has been a recipe
for limited activity the past couple of weeks,” commented one Texas source.
Added another Kansas contact: “Buyers are looking at the end of the season, buying single loads, one at a time and as they need them.”
South Central:
Fueled by further declines in NOLA barge
pricing, urea terminal prices continued to fall in the South Central region.
Sources quoted the market at $685-$720/st FOB, down another $5-$10/st from the
previous week, with the low confirmed out of river terminals in Kentucky and
the high at Convent, La. Other spot prices during the week included $700/st FOB
Shreveport, La., $705-$710/st FOB Memphis, Tenn., and $715/st FOB Little Rock,
Ark.
Southeast:
Urea prices in the Southeast slipped to
$780-$810/st FOB port terminals in mid-May, down significantly from the
$950-$1,010/st FOB levels reported in late April. The high end of the range was
confirmed at Savannah, Ga., with the Wilmington, N.C., market quoted in the
$780-$790/st FOB range. No urea was reportedly available at Norfolk, Va.
India:
RCF will take 1.7
million mt of urea from its tender of May 11. The price was earlier set at
$716.50/mt CFR for West Coast deliveries and $721.30/mt CFR for East Coast
deliveries.
The tonnage to
cover the awards will primarily come from the Arab Gulf, sources reported.
There will be cargoes from Vietnam, Indonesia, and Egypt as well. Sources also noted that Dreymoor had indicated
sourcing from the Black Sea. Traders said these tons are most likely from
Turkmenistan or Uzbekistan rather than from Russia, because of the difficulty
getting financing for any Russian product.
|
Offering
Company
|
Quantity
|
Source
|
|
Samsung
|
420,000
|
Middle
East-Vietnam-China-Egypt
|
|
OQ Trading
|
300,000
|
|
|
Swiss Singapore
|
300,000
|
|
|
SABIC
|
135,000
|
|
|
Dreymoor
|
112,000
|
Black Sea-Baltic
Sea
|
|
Ameropa
|
92,000
|
Middle
East-Indonesia
|
|
Keytrade
|
90,000
|
Oman
|
|
OCI Trading
|
80,000
|
|
|
Midgulf
|
45,000
|
|
|
Koch
|
47,000
|
China
|
|
Fertchem
|
50,000
|
|
|
Total
|
1,671,000
| |
The take in the
tender will ease pressure on the Indian government to deliver much-needed urea
to the farmers as the application season begins. However, sources said the
government will have to repeat this order at least twice more to get the supply
chain in shape for the rest of the year.
Another tender
will have to called soon. Traders speculated the next call may not come until
vessels are nominated to cover the tons awarded in this tender. This means the
past practice of an Indian company calling a tender during an IFA meeting may
not happen.
The annual IFA
conference will be held the last week of May in Vienna. Sources said this does
not give enough time to prepare for another tender. The earliest source said
another tender might be called is mid-June.
Pakistan:
The government
upped the amount of urea it wants imported. Earlier in the year the government
was ready to authorize the importation of 100,000 mt. Now it wants 200,000 mt.
Initially, the committee discussing the proposal wanted TCP to
open talks with urea producing countries for a government-to-government
purchase of 200,000 mt, and to prepare documents to purchase the same amount in
a public tender.
An outcry from the
financing agencies reportedly forced the committee to back off on the two-prong
approach. When international traders first heard rumors that Pakistan might try
to import some urea, they shared a universal concern. Where, they wondered,
would Pakistan get the money to purchase the product, especially at a time when
prices are still at high levels?
In the end, the
committee authorized TCP to move forward with the government-to-government
deal. Such arrangements have been done in the past, with Saudi Arabia being the
main backer. Product from SABIC has been sent to Pakistan under friendly terms
from lower prices to long-term payment plans. In this case, the Pakistan
government is hoping for both.
Middle East:
The netback to the
Arab Gulf from the RCF/India tender is put at $685-$690/mt FOB. The price is a
sizable drop from the $780/mt FOB that Fertiglobe offered into the tender.
However, it is better than the $682.30/mt FOB countered by RCF. Fertiglobe
rejected the counterbid.
Also prior to the
awards being issued, Fertiglobe reportedly said it was shipping two cargoes of
granular urea at $716/mt FOB. One cargo reportedly is for an African buyer and
the other for an Asian buyer.
Sources expect Middle
East prices to firm. After RCF takes its cargoes from the area, another tender
will need to be called by India. About the time of the second tender, sources
said, Australian buyers will begin inquiring about material for the second half
of the year. Pakistan is also looking for 200,000 mt from the area in a
government-to-government deal.
Stepped up
interest in purchasing product from the area will come as China remains out of
the market as a major supplier. Russia will also be out as a viable source of
urea unless the situation changes in Ukraine. All told, supply is expected to
be tight as demand picks up.
Soon after RCF
began announcing its awards, Egyptian producers stepped up with sales. The week
opened with MOPCO selling 6,000 mt at $700/mt FOB. By the end of the week,
$720/mt FOB was done and producers were pushing for $730/mt FOB.
Sources said
buyers in Europe saw the Indian prices as a solid floor and decided to move to
cover their summer and fall needs before prices moved too far up on further
demand.
Indonesia:
Kaltim closed a
sale for 45,000 mt of granular urea at $680/mt FOB for June shipment. This is a
drop from the last done business just a few weeks ago at $720/mt FOB, but one
that fits with the Indian tender numbers.
Reportedly, Kaltim was hoping to move about 120,000 mt in June
and July loadings. Sources said talks are taking place with traders to secure
deals for the remaining quantity.
Southeast Asia:
Sources said
Vietnamese urea was able to be offered into India as a result of several
factors falling into place.
Farmers in Vietnam
have been pushing back against the rising prices coming from the domestic
producers. While the price was high for the domestic market, sources said they
fit in nicely with the Indian tender. Reportedly,
Samsung picked up two cargoes to be part of its awards from RCF.
A sale to the area
came in at $745/mt CFR with more buyers clamoring for material. The price
reflects the strength provided to prices from the price floor set by India and
by the aggressive selling of material from Egypt.
China:
The netback from
the Indian tender to China was put at $685-$690/mt FOB. This amount supports a
rule of thumb that the netback prices out of China and the Arab Gulf run at
about the same levels despite the differences in freight costs to India.
Sources said the Chinese government is reviewing the
list of fertilizers that will remain under export restrictions. Urea is bound
to remain on the list, said traders. Sources also said the government is
prepared to keep the export restrictions in place through June 2023.
The restrictions
are not a full ban on exports. Customs officials give plants permission to
export their product once the government officials are convinced supplies to
the domestic market will not be affected.
Sources said the
permission to export is unique to the plant making the request. Reportedly, one company applied for permission to fulfill an order with an international trader and was given
permission to send its urea offshore. As the vessel was loading, however, sources said the ship was seized and the
plant was fined. It seems the urea being loaded came from a different factory
under the aegis of the first company.
International
traders noted that this is the first time customs officials secured urea as it
was loading. Sources said the process to seek permission had to start all over
again, but this time with the customs officials looking at the impact shipping
urea from the second company would have on the domestic market.
The action also
made it clear to producers and traders that swaps – once a standard practice in
the industry – will not be allowed.
South Korea:
Imports for
January-April 2022 were reported at 432,000 mt by Trade Data Monitor. This is a 22% jump from the 353,000 mt imported
during the same period of 2021.
April 2022 imports
were reported at 105,000 mt, compared to the
90,000 mt in April 2021. Chinese urea accounted for 40,000 mt, or 38% of the
imported urea during April. Qatar came in with another 34,000 mt for 32% of
imports. Vietnam and Indonesia came in with 16,000 mt and 14,000 mt,
respectively.
Brazil:
The lower end of
the market softened as demand dropped for immediate loadings of product.
Sources put the landed price at $690-$740/mt CFR.
Sources said
dryness in the sugar cane and corn areas have farmers holding off on making
their purchases for 2022/23 use. At the same time, farmers are rebelling
against the high price of urea, refusing to buy anything until absolutely
needed. The lack of major movement in the market is having the desired effect
of lowering prices – at least desired by buyers.
The Rondonópolis price dropped significantly as buyers refuse to buy
product at higher prices. Sources put the level this week at $820-$900/mt FOB
ex-warehouse. Sources said only a few small deals took place, forcing
distributors to keep holding on to product while more tons come in from the
ports.