All posts by mickeybarb@charter.net

Crops/Weather

Eastern Cornbelt:

Cool, wet weather was reported across much of the Eastern Cornbelt during the week. Frost advisories and freeze warnings were in effect for parts of central and northern Indiana at midweek, and also for northeastern Ohio, with lows dipping to the mid-20s in both states.

A stronger chance of precipitation was expected on April 29-30, with heavy rain expected across central Illinois and southern Indiana. Forecasts also warned of the potential for severe weather in southern Illinois and southwestern Indiana, including the possibility of heavy rain, large hail, and damaging winds.

Corn planting progress continued to lag in the region, with just 1-2 percent of the acreage planted in Illinois and Indiana as of April 24, well behind the 10-21 percent average. Soybean planting was rated at 1 percent complete in Illinois and had yet to start in Indiana and Ohio, with all three states trailing their five-year averages. Ohio growers had 30 percent of the oat crop planted by April 24, behind the 44 percent five-year average.

Western Cornbelt:

Scattered showers and cool temperatures continued to dominate Iowa’s weather in late April, limiting fertilizer application and planting activities.

The wettest weather was expected late in the week, with potentially strong storms moving through western Iowa, Nebraska, and western Missouri. Forecasts warned of heavy rain, large hail, and damaging winds in portions of all three states on April 30, with a half-inch or more of precipitation likely in many locations.

The weather delays pushed planting further behind in late April. Just 2 percent of Iowa’s corn crop was seeded by April 24, compared with 15 percent on average. Corn planting progress in Missouri and Nebraska was rated at 10 percent complete, behind the five-year averages of 29 percent and 11 percent, respectively.

Soybean planting was just 1-3 percent complete in the Western Cornbelt by April 24, while Missouri growers had yet to register any progress on cotton planting by that date. Rice growers in Missouri were able to plant just 1 percent of the crop by April 24, well behind the 38 percent five-year average.

Southern Plains:

Severe-to-exceptional drought continued to grip most of the Southern Plains in late April, with a broad area of the most significant drought conditions observed across western Oklahoma, northern and western Texas, and eastern New Mexico.

More than 173,000 acres in New Mexico have burned in wildfires so far this year, more than in seven of the last eight years, and the state’s peak fire season runs from April through July. The fires have been fed by tinder dry conditions, high winds, and spring heat. Highs reached the upper-70s across northern New Mexico and eastern Colorado during the week.

Parts of central and eastern Texas received long-overdue rains in late April, with some areas reportedly collecting 1-4 inches. Another active weather pattern was taking aim at the region late in the week, with severe thunderstorms expected across northern Texas, Oklahoma, and central and eastern Kansas on April 28-29. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes were all possible in this area.

“We’re keeping our fingers crossed for some rain chances coming later this week,” said one Kansas contact. “All you have to do is look at the drought map to see what growers are contending with across the high plains. Planting is occurring for some, but not for others.”

Corn planting as of April 24 had progressed to 69 percent complete in Texas, 21 percent in Kansas, and just 4 percent in Colorado, with soybeans estimated at 3 percent planted in Kansas. The cotton crop was 19 percent planted in Texas and 1 percent in Kansas, while sorghum planting had progressed to 63 percent complete in Texas and 1 percent in Kansas.

One central Texas source estimated that all of the corn and 75 percent of the cotton was planted in his trade area. Several Texas sources said spring fertilizer rates would see a 30-40 percent reduction overall this year due to high input costs, the drought, and low beef prices, with significant demand destruction reported on pastureland.

The region’s winter wheat crop was “going backwards,” according to one source, who reported significant drought damage in late April. USDA’s wheat ratings bore this out, with poor or very poor ratings assigned to fully 78 percent of the Texas crop as of April 24, along with 48 percent of the acreage in Oklahoma, 47 percent in Colorado, and 36 percent in Kansas.

South Central:

Most of Louisiana experienced showers and thunderstorms early in the week, with the strongest storms confined to western, central, and northern areas of the state.

Another system was expected to move into the region on April 30, with forecasts warning of the potential for severe storms – including damaging winds, large hail, and some tornado activity – in northeastern Arkansas, northwestern Tennessee, and western Kentucky.

On April 28, the Mississippi Emergency Management Agency (MEMA) announced that Gov. Tate Reeves has requested a Major Disaster Declaration from President Joe Biden for Individual Assistance due to tornadoes and severe weather that occurred on March 22, when 27 tornadoes caused major damage in the state.

Soybean planting as of April 24 was reported at 39 percent complete in Louisiana, 24 percent in Mississippi, 12 percent in Arkansas, 5 percent in Kentucky, and 3 percent in Tennessee. Cotton planting had progressed to 14 percent in Louisiana and 2 percent in Arkansas and Mississippi, with corn planting reported at 17 percent complete in Tennessee and 10 percent in Kentucky.

Louisiana growers had fully 80 percent of the rice crop planted by April 24, compared with 77 percent in Texas, 25 percent in Mississippi, and 14 percent in Arkansas.

Southeast:

A line of thunderstorms rolled across Georgia and North Carolina on April 26, producing strong winds and heavy rain in some locations. Rain showers also hit parts of Virginia and Maryland on that date, with reports of lightning, strong winds, and hail in northern Virginia.

Cooler temperatures moved in after the thunderstorms, with temperatures in the 50s and 40 mph winds reported in parts of Virginia on April 27-28. Much warmer weather was on tap for the coming weekend, however.

A gradual warmup also occurred in Alabama during the week, with spotty rains expected by the weekend. Highs across central Florida climbed to the mid- to upper-80s during the week.

North Carolina growers had 60 percent of the corn and 6 percent of the soybeans planted by April 24, with both crops tracking slightly ahead of the average pace. Cotton planting was 12 percent complete in Virginia and 1-3 percent in the rest of the Southeast by that date, while peanut planting had progressed to 14 percent complete in Florida, 3 percent in Alabama and Georgia, and 1 percent in the Carolinas.

Sources reported steady fertilizer application taking place in the region, with planting running “wide open.” Several contacts continued to talk of fertilizer demand destruction due to high input costs, however. One source said overall rates were down roughly 33 percent from normal in his area, with nitrogen down 20 percent, phosphates 45 percent, and potash 35 percent.

One source said many growers in his territory opted for prescription rates based on soil samples rather than using traditional rates, with the biggest hit seen on phosphates and potash. “In our lawn care business, we’re seeing lots of requests for 16-2-4 blends rather than the usual 20-10-10,” he said.

Transportation

U.S. Gulf:

With river levels above the 12-foot mark at New Orleans, travel restrictions through NOLA and the lower Mississippi River remained in place, reducing maximum barge counts and imposing minimum horsepower limits. The gauge at New Orleans was observed at 12.15 feet and rising slowly on April 26. Forecasts called for a 12.8-foot crest over the April 28-May 2 period, ahead of an expected fall below 12 feet on May 6.

Extended delays were observed at Leland Bowman Lock following a complete shutdown due to an equipment malfunction reported on April 24-25. Waits were noted peaking at 39 hours on April 25, before normalizing on April 26. Repairs expected late in the week were likely to trigger a renewed spike in wait times.

Brazos Lock was reportedly closed to daytime navigation through May 2, limiting Monday-through-Friday travel between 7:00 a.m. and 5:00 p.m. Waits were noted up to nine hours, falling from 20 hours in the prior report.

Bayou Sorrel Bridge maintenance blocked navigation between 7:00 a.m. and 11:00 a.m., and again from 1:00 p.m. through 5:00 p.m., Monday through Friday. Normal lock access was restored on Saturday and Sunday. Work at the site was expected to run into late May.

A guidewall replacement project in progress at Bayou Sorrel Lock was expected to continue into early 2023, blocking Monday-through-Friday travel between 6:30 a.m. and 5:00 p.m. Delays fell below the five-hour mark during the week, down from 5-25 hours reported previously.

Bayou Chene travel continued to be unavailable nightly between 7:00 p.m. and 7:00 a.m. due to a floodgate construction operation. Tows were permitted access during daylight hours with lengths limited to 600 feet, while configurations wider than 54 feet were expected to utilize an assist vessel. Delays were projected in the 6-12 hour range.

Draft limits remained in place through Miles 113-116 of the Atchafalaya River, according to a Coast Guard posting, due to shoaling in the Morgan City, La., area. Barge and vessels drafts were allowed up to 10 feet, while tow lengths and widths were permitted to a maximum 600 feet and 70 feet, respectively. Barge strings longer than 400 feet were advised to travel with an assist vessel. Restrictions through the area could be avoided by detouring through the Port Allen Route.

Length and width restrictions remained in place at Algiers Lock, effectively limiting unassisted lockages to four standard barges or two 30,000 mt tankers per turn. Delays at the site were reported in the 18-36 hour range during the week, increasing from 4-22 hours in the prior report. Larger tows could pass when accompanied by an assist tug.

An ongoing construction operation at the Belle Chasse Bridge, located in the West Canal, was expected to continue through the end of 2022. Delays were anticipated up to 12 hours.

Port Allen Lock delays were noted up to six hours during the week, while boats passing Industrial Lock reported waits in a wide 4-26 hour range. Colorado Lock wait times were seen up to five hours.

Mississippi River:

Elevated river levels remained a significant hurdle to lower Mississippi River navigation, with action-stage waters reportedly slowing travel, reducing maximum barge counts, necessitating minimum horsepower controls on towing vessels, and establishing daylight-only bridge navigation for some larger vessels.

Following a 40.26-foot crest on April 25, the river gauge at Vicksburg, Miss., was noted falling to 39.8 feet on April 27. Forecasts called for a move below the 35-foot action stage on May 8.

The Baton Rouge, La., gauge was projected to crest at an action-stage 33.5 feet on April 27-28, ahead of a predicted shift below the 30-foot level on May 7. A flood warning was in effect on April 27 for the Mississippi River at Red River Landing, Baton Rouge, Donaldsonville, Reserve, and New Orleans.

A channel reinforcement operation planned to begin May 10 at the lower river’s Mile 807 is tentatively projected to continue for 30 days, shorter than the previous 60-90 day estimates. The project will likely block southbound travel daily between 6:00 a.m. and 6:00 p.m., causing lengthy delays.

Lock 20 delays were reported up to six hours during the week. Corps data showed intermittent Lock 22 waits in a wide 5-16 hour range, while wait times at Lock 27 were quoted at 5-15 hours.

Illinois River:

Following weeks of elevated levels, the Illinois River fell out of action stage during the week. Depths at LaGrange Lock were observed dropping below the 21-foot action stage on April 24, measuring 20.21 feet and falling slowly on April 27. Both the LaGrange and Peoria gauges were reported above action stage one week earlier.

The reprieve could be short-lived, however. A flood warning on April 27 for the Illinois River at Beardstown and Havana was scheduled to remain in effect through May 3. Farther upriver, the Ottawa gauge was noted hovering shy of the 461-foot action stage at 459.75 feet on April 27.

Maintenance and repairs scheduled at Brandon Road Lock are projected to impact navigation between May 9 and Sept. 8, according to a Corps posting. Towing widths are expected to be capped at 70 feet. Navigation will be limited to nighttime hours only between May 9 and Aug. 14, while the lock will experience a complete shutdown from Aug. 15 through Sept. 4. Navigation will return to overnight-only status on Sept. 5-8. Travel hours are scheduled to return to normal on Sept. 9.

Wickets were noted in the lowered position at Peoria Lock and LaGrange Lock during the week, permitting tows to pass both locations without locking.

Ohio River:

Belleville Lock is expected to enter into a main chamber shutdown on May 1, prompting detours through the auxiliary chamber until June 29. Delays are predicted.

The Corps also announced a round of main chamber closures at Greenup Lock. The shutdown will run concurrently with Belleville between May 1 and June 29, with delays expected.

Cannelton Lock is closed to daytime travel weekly on Wednesdays and Thursdays through May 26, causing delays up to an expected 12 hours. A round of main chamber work at the site was proposed by the Corps to run from July 5 through Nov. 11.

A Corps proposal to shut the Hannibal Lock main chamber for repairs and maintenance would likely force detours through the secondary chamber between July 5 and Oct. 8.

On the Tennessee River, Wilson Lock was scheduled to resume main chamber operation on April 28, ending a period of extended delays. Waits were noted in a wide 2-5 day range for the week, falling from 3-6 days reported previously, as tows have been limited to locking one barge at a time through the secondary chamber.

Kentucky Lock delays tracked up to five hours during the week, falling from 5-18 hours in the prior report.

Cheatham Lock will undergo miter gate machinery repairs from May 16 through Aug. 5. Shutdowns at the site are expected to follow a repeating pattern of 11-day shutdowns, capped by a three-day period of unrestricted travel. Significant delays are predicted.

Arkansas River:

Repairs and maintenance at Norrell Lock will limit daytime transportation for 10-day stretches starting in June and continuing into January 2023. Navigation is projected to be unavailable from 7:00 a.m. to 7:00 p.m. daily on June 1-11; June 22-July 21; Aug. 1-10; Aug. 21-Sept. 21; Sept. 3-Oct. 9; Oct. 20-Nov. 18; Nov. 29-Dec. 23; and Jan. 3-31, 2023.

Bayer Partners with Ginkgo on Inputs, Microbes

Bayer AG, Leverkusen, Germany, and biotech company Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings Inc., Boston, will partner to develop products like more environmentally-friendly nitrogen fertilizer and crop protection products, according to Bloomberg. To do that, they will collaborate on advancing the use of microbes in agriculture.

As part of the agreement, Ginkgo will acquire the team and capabilities of Joyn Bio, a startup that was founded as a joint venture between the two companies (GM March 23, 2018), while Bayer will acquire Joyn Bio’s product and help bring it to farmers.

Joyn Bio uses microbes so that crops like corn can convert nitrogen from the air into a form it can use. Ginkgo will also acquire a Bayer research and development site as part of the deal.

Financial details of the deal were not disclosed. The companies plan to close the deal by the end of 2022. The transaction is subject to regulatory approvals.

Belarus Woos Brazilian Investors for Proposed Russian Port

Belarus is inviting investors from Brazil to participate in building a new port in Russia for the transshipment of Belarusian potash, Interfax reported late last week, citing the Belarusian Ambassador to Brazil, Sergey Lukashevich, in an interview with Brazilian online news outlet GlobalFert. The interview has also been published on the website of Belarus’ Foreign Ministry.

Belarus previously has spoken about its plans to build its own port on the Russian Baltic Sea. Last month, Belarus claimed it would have its own ports on the Russian Baltic Sea in two years, according to a report by Belarusian state news agency BelTA, quoting Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko on March 5 (GM March 11, p. 31).

According to the Interfax report, citing Belarus Prime Minister Roman Golovchenko late last month, Minsk and Moscow have agreed on “a number of arrangements” for the use of Russian ports for the export of Belarusian products, including potash. Belarus earlier said it was in talks with Moscow for the use of certain Russian ports for the transhipment of Belarusian potash, and on occasion, had claimed deals had been struck (GM Feb. 18, p. 1; Feb. 11, p. 1).

Following Western sanctions on Belarus as of midnight on Jan. 31 this year, Lithuania stopped accepting Belarusian trains loaded with potash heading for the Lithuanian port of Klaipėda for export using its railways, effectively blocking the export shipment of around 90 percent of Belarusian potash (GM Jan. 14, p. 1).

Lukashevich, as cited by last week’s Interfax report, said Belarus is prepared to make “interesting offers” for Brazil’s main purchasers of potassium chloride, “which, according to Belarus’ estimates, is around 17 major companies that previously bought potash through intermediaries.

“In light of the new realities, Belarus is ready to work in an unconventional manner,” the ambassador was cited as saying. Belarus foresees changes in the methods of payment, delivery, and is prepared to offer “attractive prices,” he said.

Concerns are ratcheting up among Brazilian buyers about how potassium chloride supplies will be affected as the last of the pre-sanction cargoes from Belarus and Russia are seen docking and unloading at Brazilian ports (GM April 15, p. 15). However, sources were reporting this week that Russian potash is still in the pipeline for delivery to Brazil (see Markets).

Brazil relies on international suppliers for most of its potassium chloride requirements, and this need is increasing in line with its drive to increase agricultural output. The country historically has produced around 0.4-0.5 million mt of its own potassium chloride per year, according to Green Markets’ Potash Quarterly. Currently, there is only one producing potash mine in the country – owned by The Mosaic Co. – and the operation has only a few more years of reserves remaining. Furthermore, it is understood that Mosaic expects to close the mine in 2024.

Brazil in calendar 2021 imported 12.8 million mt of potassium chloride, up 13.7 percent on 2020’s 11 million mt, according to Trade Data Monitor (GM Jan. 14, p. 15). In 2021, Belarus and Russia between them supplied some 47 percent of the Brazilian potassium chloride import market.

In the first quarter of 2022, the two countries provided half of Brazil’s potassium chloride imports, Trade Data Monitor data showed.

Selected Brazilian Potassium Chloride Imports (million mt)

  Calendar year 2021 Percentage of total 1Q 2021 Percentage of total
Total imports 12.8   2.5  
         
Belarus 2.4 18.7 0.613 24.5
Russia 3.6 28.0 0.659 26.4

Amid concerns that the country will not have enough potash and other fertilizer inputs for its agriculture due to Western sanctions on Belarus and Russia, Brazil’s President Jair Bolsonaro has asked the World Trade Organization (WTO) for help, according to a Deutsche Presse-Agentur report, citing a Brazilian Ministry of Foreign Affairs statement issued on April 19, following a visit to the country by WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala.

According to the report, Bolsonaro highlighted to the WTO Director-General the importance of trade in agricultural products and inputs such as fertilizers to ensure global food security. The president earlier highlighted Brazil’s dependence “in large parts” on fertilizers from Russia and Belarus.

Waggaman Plant Restarts

Incitec Pivot Ltd. (IPL), Southbank, Victoria, on April 19 said production at its 800,000 mt/y Waggaman, La., ammonia plant had successfully restarted following a rupture in a section of pipe announced on Feb. 18, and the facility is now operating at nameplate capacity.

The rupture resulted in a release of hydrogen, but following extensive investigations, the company said it found only minor damage to surrounding equipment (GM Feb. 18, p. 1).

IPL estimates the impact to earnings associated with the downtime at Waggaman to be approximately US$128 million (A$173 million) on an earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) basis and US$92 million (A$124 million) on a net profit after tax (NPAT) basis. Both of these latest estimates are higher than the initial estimates of US$95-$125 million (EBIT) and US$68-$90 million (NPAT) (GM Feb. 25, p. 35).

The company said approximately 75 percent of the impact on earnings will be in its first-half financial results.

IPL continues to work with its insurers to progress a claim under its comprehensive property insurance policy. But it said the first-half results will not include any adjustments for potential insurance recoveries.

The company experienced major problems at the relatively new Waggaman plant during its last fiscal year ended Sept. 30, 2021 (GM Nov. 19, 2021), including an extended turnaround and unplanned outages. The facility produced 437,200 mt of ammonia in FY2021, 40 percent less than FY2020’s 729,000 mt, while sales of ammonia from the plant were 23 percent lower year-over-year at 563,000 mt (FY2020: 730,000 mt).

IPL will release its first-half FY22 financial results on May 23.

Martin Midstream Results Beat Guidance; Sulfur Services Income Up 96 Percent

Martin Midstream Partners LP, Kilgore, Texas, reported first-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $40 million, which exceeded the high end of the company’s guidance by some $10 million. The company said much of the outperformance came from its Sulfur Services segment, which includes both fertilizer and sulfur, as well as its Transportation segment. Year-ago adjusted EBITDA was $31 million.

“The partnership experienced an exceptional quarter benefiting from increased refinery utilization and strong demand for our products and services,” said Bob Bondurant, President and CEO of Martin Midstream GP LLC, the general partner of the partnership.

“During the quarter, we successfully managed supply chain challenges, labor availability, and fluctuating commodity prices as the Russian invasion of Ukraine created global market instability,” he continued. “Looking forward, the outlook remains solid for our refinery services business model, and as a result we are increasing our 2022 adjusted EBITDA guidance range to $110-$120 million.”

Full-year guidance had previously been $100-$110 million.

First-quarter net income was $11.5 million ($0.29 per unit) on revenues of $279.2 million, up from $2.5 million ($0.06 per unit) and $201 million, respectively.

The Sulfur Services segment saw a 96 percent increase in operating income, to $12.7 million from the year-ago $6.4 million. Revenues were up 70 percent, to $59.1 million from the year-ago $34.8 million. Adjusted EBITDA for the segment was $15.3 million, up from $9.2 million.

While total sales volumes were up 18 percent, sulfur volumes were up 56 percent at 114,000 lt from 73,000 lt, while fertilizer was off 12 percent, to 84,000 lt from 95,000 lt.

Mosaic 1Q Results Expected to Climb

The Mosaic Co.’s first-quarter net income is expected to climb to $900.3 million compared to the year-ago $157 million, according to the Bloomberg Consensus, which averages the projections from major analytical firms. The actual range given by analysts was $799-$994 million.

Sales are expected to see a boost to $4.1 billion ($3.8-$4.5 billion) from the year-ago $2.3 billion.

Adjusted EBITDA is forecast at $1.44 billion, up from the year-ago $560 million. The analyst range was $1.33-$1.6 billion.

Mosaic’s first-quarter results are expected to be released after markets close on May 2.

Itafos Inc. – Management Brief

Isaiah Toback and Stephen Shapiro have been appointed Directors by Houston-based Itafos Inc.

Toback replaces Rory O’Neill as a nominee to the company’s Board by CL Fertilizers Holdings, its principal shareholder. As a Castlelake partner since 2020 and its Deputy Co-Chief Investment Officer, Toback guides and executes the company’s global investment strategy. He previously was a Goldman Sachs investment banker and holds a B.A. in Economics from Vanderbilt University.

Shapiro is CFO at Cellview Imaging Inc., an emerging medical device company. He has 30 years of experience in investment banking, most recently with Wells Fargo Securities Canada. A chartered financial analyst, Shapiro spent 13 years with BMO Capital Markets, leading its agriculture and fertilizer group. He holds degrees in Commerce from McGill University and Business Administration from the University of Chicago.

Nutrien Ag Fire Reported in Kansas

A fire was reported at a Nutrien Ag Solutions facility in Leoti, Kan., on Tuesday afternoon, April 19. Those in the immediate vicinity were evacuated, but were allowed back in their homes Tuesday night.

“There was a fire at the Nutrien Ag Solutions’ Leoti branch on April 19, 2022, and we cooperated with emergency responders,” a company spokesperson told Green Markets. “Fortunately, no injuries have been reported. We will continue to assess the situation and should know more once the investigation concludes.”

Local firefighters answered the call, and the Ford County Regional Hazardous Materials Team was deployed to remove hazardous materials. Fire Chief Charlie Hughes said the fire was contained to a forklift and nonhazardous materials, according to KSN, a local television station.

A Feb. 28 fire at the Nutrien Ag Solutions facility in Sunnyside, Wash., in the Yakima Valley, destroyed a 13,000-square-foot storage building at the site and prompted the evacuation of residents within a half-mile radius of the plant (GM March 4, p. 1). The local fire chief said the building contained 1.75 million pounds of “mixed components for fertilizer,” including sulfate of potash, muriate of potash, MESZ, ammonium sulfate, urea, and boron.

At the time, the cause of that fire was not determined, however, workers at the plant reportedly identified a smoldering supply of sulfur – part of approximately 200 tons of sulfur at the site – that had been unloaded in a concrete bin in the building earlier in the day.

Chemtrade Eyes Sale-Leaseback

Chemtrade Logistics Income Fund, Toronto, announced plans on April 19 to actively pursue the sale of land at its North Vancouver, B.C., site through a sale-leaseback structure. The portion of the company’s North Vancouver operating facility that Chemtrade is offering for sale includes approximately 40 acres (16 hectares) of industrial zoned and rail served land.

The remaining portion of the site is currently leased from the Vancouver Fraser Port Authority. Chemtrade plans to continue to operate its North Vancouver facility following the completion of the proposed sale-leaseback arrangement.

“We are excited about the financial flexibility that this opportunity could create for Chemtrade,” said President and CEO Scott Rook. “The anticipated proceeds of the transaction could provide significant liquidity for investments in organic growth while also helping to reduce debt.”

Chemtrade has launched a formal process to evaluate options for this transaction and cannot guarantee that any transaction will take place, nor provide guidance on the interest in or likelihood of any sale. Chemtrade said it will not issue any further updates until material terms of an agreement are reached or the process is terminated.