All posts by mickeybarb@charter.net

Heringer Expects Rio Grande Plant Up in 2022

Fertilizantes Heringer, Viana, Brazil, told analysts on March 29 that its Rio Grande blending plant is currently undergoing maintenance and is being prepared to resume activities toward the end of the first half or start of the third quarter of 2022. It expects this could increase its total capacity by 220,000 mt/y.

Currently, Heringer has 11 of its 14 blending plants up and running. Active capacity is 4.22 million mt/y, with storage of 638,000 mt. In addition to Rio Grande, the other plants offline are Paranagua and Porto Alegre.

Russia Increases Export Quotas for Nitrogen, Complex Fertilizers; Extends AN Export Ban

Russia has decided to increase the export quotas for nitrogen fertilizers by 231,000 mt and for complex fertilizers by 466,000 mt, respectively, Interfax has reported, citing the country’s Ministry ofEconomic Development.

The quotas have been updated taking into account the balance of production and consumption of these types of fertilizer, the ministry said.

The Russian government introduced export quotas for nitrogen fertilizers and complex fertilizers and other exports containing nitrogen on Dec. 1, 2021, as well as on DAP and MAP, in a bid to safeguard local supplies and stabilize pricing for the country’s farmers (GM Nov. 5, 2021). The export quotas were to remain in effect until May 31, 2022.

The cap on nitrogen fertilizer exports was set at 5.9 million mt, and 5.35 million mt for complex fertilizers.

Later, the export quota for urea was increased by 280,000 mt to account for the launch of new production capacity by the Acron Group. The Russian fertilizer group completed the Urea-6+ project at the Veliky Novgorod site in northwest Russia last August (GM Aug. 13, 2021). The project increased the Urea-6 plant’s production capacity to 730,000 mt/y from 210,000 mt/y previously, and has taken Acron’s total urea production capacity to 1.975 million mt/y.

In a separate development this week, Russia on March 28 extended its export ban on ammonium nitrate (AN) exports to May 1, according to a separate Interfax report, citing the government press service.

The export ban that was first imposed starting Feb. 2 had been due to run only until April 2, and was aimed at ensuring the country had enough product for its domestic sowing season (GM Feb. 4, p. 29).

The ban extension will not apply to exports to the self-proclaimed separatist regions in eastern Ukraine or breakaway regions in Georgia, according to the report.

CF to Boost Exports Amid Shortfalls

CF Industries Holdings Inc., Deerfield, Ill., is planning to increase its overseas shipments to regions plagued by fertilizer shortages, including Latin America, CEO Tony Will said this week in an interview with Bloomberg prior to a trip to the region. Brazil is the No. 1 soybean and the No. 2 corn exporter globally.

“We seriously need to look at doing significant exports to Latin America to make up for the deficit that used to be sourced out of Russia,” he said.

North American farmers have “ample” fertilizer for spring sowing, which in some regions has already begun, Will said. That will allow the company to up overseas sales, especially in the second half of the year.

CF is seeing a large influx of cash thanks to high fertilizer prices, and is planning to return some of it to shareholders in a $1.5 billion share repurchase program. They will also use some of it to expand their position in clean energy. CF is looking to acquire companies that could help expand its North American production capacity for some types of ammonia.

“The world is going to be short of ammonia,” Will said. “If you can decarbonize the production process of ammonia, you have a really sustainable clean energy source.”

Earlier in the week, Will told CNBC that the current fertilizer shortage may take 2-3 years to work itself out.

Ammonia

U.S. Gulf/Tampa:

Tampa for April was concluded at $1,625/mt CFR, up some 43 percent, or $490/mt, from March and February business at $1,135/mt CFR.

Eastern Cornbelt:

Spotty ammonia applications in the region were slowed by wet, cold conditions during the week. Ammonia pricing remained at $1,450/st FOB terminals in Illinois and Indiana, and $1,475/st FOB Lima, Ohio.

Western Cornbelt:

Inclement weather conditions once again slowed preplant ammonia activity in the Western Cornbelt. The ammonia market was unchanged at $1,375-$1,400/st FOB regional terminals in late March, with the low confirmed at Beatrice, Neb., and the high at Palmyra, Mo.

Northern Plains:

Sources said preplant ammonia movement was still weeks away in the Northern Plains, but prices were inching higher in late March.

The ammonia market was quoted at $1,480-$1,500/st FOB regional terminals, where available, with the high reported at Velva, N.D., and reflecting a $50/st increase. Sources continued to report no tons or pricing available at Leal, N.D. The last confirmed delivered business for spring tons remained at the $1,550/st level in North Dakota.

Great Lakes:

The ammonia market was quoted at $1,450-$1,475/st FOB in the Great Lakes region, with the low reported at Huntington, Ind., and the high at Lima, Ohio. No current offers were confirmed at Courtright, Ont.

Black Sea:

Shipping product out of Ukraine is still not possible, leaving no method for price testing. Activity in the southern portion of the Black Sea, however, continues as Turkey looks to buy product.

Sources reported the Russian ammonia aboard the Gas Cobia is being offered at a discount to Turkish buyers. The product was loaded in Ventspils just as sanctions against Russia were imposed because of its invasion of Ukraine. Because of the sanctions, finding a buyer for the product was difficult. The ship tarried outside Ventspils for a while before heading to the Mediterranean and potential buyers in Turkey.

There are also reports that Turkey is looking at stepping up its purchases of Iranian ammonia. Last year, Turkey reported importing 17,000 mt of Iranian ammonia. Even if it could buy more Iranian product, that country only exported 541,000 mt to all its customers in 2021, according to Trade Data Monitor. Russian exports to Turkey alone were pegged at 525,000 mt in the same year.  

Middle East:

Arab Gulf producers are said to now be looking at $1,400/mt FOB for spot deals. However, sources said no deals have been confirmed at that level yet.

Producers are in an enviable position, said one observer. Demand from India remains strong, providing suppliers with a steady customer base with long-term contracts. At the same time, European demand is stepping up with the removal of Russian material because of sanctions imposed on that country. The new Arab Gulf price appears to be based on a netback from talks with a European buyer.

Turkey is reportedly looking to buy more Iranian ammonia to make up for the purchases lost because of the closures of the Ukrainian ports in the Black Sea.

North Africa:

The loss of Russian ammonia because of the closure of Black Sea ports and the economic sanctions related to the war in Ukraine now has OCP looking for alternative suppliers. The company claims it is covered through June. Sources reported, however, that the phosphate producer is discussing barter arrangements with Brazil and Argentina.

Trade Data Monitor reported that Brazil exported 36,000 mt in 2021, mostly to neighboring countries. So far this year, Brazil sent 19,000 mt to South Africa, India, and Madagascar.

Product from North Africa is being courted for Europe. Sources said talks seem to be ongoing, with some extra cargos expected in May.

Northwest Europe:

Lower gas prices in Europe will allow some ammonia plants to remain open. However, said one source, even the combined efforts of the facilities cannot make up for the Russian ammonia lost due to sanctions.

Prices are expected to continue to rise, but with limited public business, confirmation of spot prices is difficult. Sources reported an unconfirmed sale by Trammo to a Greek buyer at $1,650-$1,700/mt CFR. No details of the buyer or quantity were available.

Urea

U.S. Gulf:

NOLA granular barges were reported to have traded at $880-$940/st FOB, up slightly from the week-ago $875-$930/st FOB. Sources reported a bit of a fall-off earlier in the week, which was attributed to initial speculation that the war in Ukraine might be on the wane and near an end. However, those ideas quickly faded.

Eastern Cornbelt:

The urea market was reported at $950-$960/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, down slightly from the previous week’s high, with the low reported in Illinois and the high at Cincinnati, Ohio.

Western Cornbelt:

The urea market was quoted at $900-$950/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the lower end of the range confirmed at St. Louis, Mo. Urea pricing FOB Catoosa/Inola, Okla., was pegged in the $920-$950/st FOB range during the week.

Northern Plains:

Urea pricing was quoted at $910-$950/st FOB St. Paul, Minn., depending on supplier and time of the week, with terminal values in North Dakota pegged at the $980-$990/st FOB level in late March. Delivered tons were reported in the $1,000-$1,020/st range in North Dakota.

Great Lakes:

The urea market was pegged at $965-$1,000/st FOB in the Great Lakes region, with the low reported at Toledo, Ohio. Most Michigan terminals were firmly in the $995-$1,000/st FOB range for spring tons, while pricing at Maumee, Ohio, was pegged at the $970/st FOB level for March-April.

Northeast:

Urea pricing jumped to $960-$980/st FOB in the Northeast region in late March. In the Southeast, new sales were confirmed as high as $1,000/st FOB Savannah, Ga., during the week.

Eastern Canada:

The urea market continued to strengthen in Eastern Canada, with new prices firming to C$1,425-$1,440/mt FOB in late March, up from C$1,375-$1,400/mt at last report.

India:

Sources said a call for a urea tender should come at any time. The big issue seems to be ensuring enough urea for the upcoming application season.

China has taken itself out of the global market through May and possibly into June. Getting Russian material is difficult because of the war conditions in the Black Sea and the sanctions against any financial arrangements with Russian banks. India and Russia are reportedly working on a ruble-rupee exchange program, but sources said it may not be ready in time for this tender.

Sources estimate that offered prices in the tender will end up being at least $1,000/mt CFR. One trader said this would represent the highest price ever paid by the Indian government for its urea. There is already pressure building to increase the amount of money available for fertilizer purchases in the new budget, which takes effect April 1.

The budget opened with funds for urea cut 17 percent from the previous year. The steady rise in prices in 2021, combined with the disruption in urea supplies caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, has accelerated the price increase.

Local political leaders told the media that the funds in the budget are not sufficient to cover urea needs. The government treasury must not only pay for the product awarded in the tenders, but also cover the difference between the imported price and the subsidy price of $71/mt charged to farmers.

To push back against the higher international price, the government is leaning on domestic urea producers to raise production levels as high as possible. Assistance to the plants in the form of subsidized natural gas and electricity are part of the support the government is offering.

Black Sea:

Ukrainian ports remain closed under Russian bombardments or naval blockades. The inability to move any product out of these ports, and the designation of most of the Black Sea as a war zone by insurance companies, has muted confirmation of Black Sea market prices. Sources have speculated that prices should be just above $1,000/mt FOB.

Russia announced that it was increasing the allotment of exportable urea for April. The increase of 280,000 mt takes into account additional production from the Acron Group. Sources said the issue is not access to more Russian urea, however. Besides the inability to move tons out of the Black Sea ports, sources said the major obstacle to selling Russian urea is the economic sanctions imposed on the Russian financial system by the U.S. and European Union.

Traders said the Western banks are nervous about backing any deals that involve Russian product. The penalties for making one small error in the paperwork could place a bank or insurance company on the wrong side of the extensive sanctions imposed against Russia.

In the hopes of bypassing the sanctions, Russia and India are said to be expanding a ruble-rupee exchange program that will not involve euros or U.S. dollars. The system, however, would have to be greatly expanded to manage the volume of trades necessary to cover India’s urea and phosphate needs from Russia.

Indonesia:

Sources said no selling tender is coming soon. Kaltim has one line of urea production down for routine maintenance.

Middle East:

Arab Gulf producers continue to move out tons booked under existing contracts. Sources said some producers are preparing for the upcoming Indian tender by building reserves to make available to traders or to offer on their own.

Sources said producers are holding firm to the idea that the price should be at least $1,000/mt FOB. The absence of any new spot business, however, has not allowed for any price testing above that level.

Egyptian producers are looking to move the price beyond the $1,130/mt FOB done a few weeks ago. No new spot tons have been sold as producers, traders, and end users try to figure out how to operate when two major sources of urea – Russia and China – are out of the market.

China:

Talk continues of pricing at $1,000/mt FOB. However, the lack of any public statement from a seller or buyer to confirm that level makes any pricing idea speculative. Only small tons of urea are being permitted to be sent out – usually in containers – to buyers in the region.

Sources are said to be looking for potential opportunities after the export restrictions are lifted by the end of May. Some hope to secure material for a urea-hungry world. However, others speculate that tonnage will remain limited, as producers first answer a call by the government to use June production to help build a urea stockpile of an additional 1 million mt for the summer.

Brazil:

Prices of landed product have tightened to $1,000-$1,050/mt CFR. Sources said pricing fluctuations are occurring as holders of product restrict offers in the hopes of capturing better prices later, and as buyers remain hesitant to buy anything other than tonnage needed immediately.

Rondonopolis remains steady at $1,000-$1,200/mt FOB ex-warehouse. Buyers are only taking what few tons they need right away, and are rebuffing any offers for long-term deals. At the same time, sellers are holding firm with their ideas that prices will move up once the application season begins. Sources said both sides seem ready for a more expensive market.

UAN

U.S. Gulf:

NOLA UAN barges were quoted at $620-$630/st ($19.38-$19.69/unit) FOB for the week, up from the week-ago $600-$630/st ($18.75-$19.69/unit). The new range reflects CF’s latest posting, according to market sources.

The latest East Coast vessel price ideas were put at $725-$735/mt CFR, with the last done reported at the lower end and pricing quickly firming to the upper end of the range.

Eastern Cornbelt:

UAN-32 continued to be quoted at $650/st ($20.31/unit) FOB Mount Vernon, Ind.; $655/st ($20.47/unit) FOB Cincinnati; $660/st ($20.63/unit) FOB Peru, Ill.; $665/st ($20.78/unit) FOB Seneca, Ill.; and $670/st ($20.94/unit) FOB Terre Haute, Ind. The UAN-28 market remained at $590/st ($21.07/unit) FOB on a spot basis in Ohio.

Western Cornbelt:

The UAN-32 market in the Western Cornbelt was unchanged at $650-$660/st ($20.31-$20.63/unit) FOB regional terminals for April-May tons, with the low reported at St. Louis.

Northern Plains:

New UAN-32 pricing was quoted at $680-$685/st ($21.25-$21.41/unit) FOB Winona and Pine Bend, Minn., up from $655/st ($20.47/unit) at last report. The UAN-28 market in North Dakota was pegged firmly at the $600/st ($21.43/unit) FOB level in late March, up a full $30/st from earlier in the month.

Great Lakes:

The UAN-28 market in the Great Lakes region jumped to $599-$610/st ($21.39-$21.79/unit) FOB for March-April tons, with the low at Toledo and the high confirmed at Webberville, Mich.

Northeast:

The UAN-32 market firmed to $690/st ($21.56/unit/unit) FOB Baltimore, Md., up from $660-$680/st at last report, with the last offers at Fairless Hills, Pa., reported at the $700/st ($21.88/unit) FOB level. UAN-32 pricing out of terminals in upstate New York remained at the $750/st ($23.44/unit) FOB level in late March.

In the Southeast, port terminal values for UAN-32 were confirmed at the $630-$650/st ($19.69-$20.31/unit) /unit) FOB level, with reports of indications firming to the $670/st ($20.94/unit) FOB level for new business.

Eastern Canada:

New UAN-28 offers in Eastern Canada were reported at C$875-$925/mt (C$31.25-$33.04/unit) FOB in late March, up from C$800-$823/mt (C$28.57-$29.39/unit) earlier in the month. The UAN-32 market was up C$60/st, to C$1,000/mt (C$31.25/unit) FOB on a spot basis in Ontario.

Ammonium Sulfate

U.S. Gulf:

April product was reported to be in short supply, with sources quoting prices at $675-$695/st FOB, up from the earlier $655/st FOB.

Eastern Cornbelt:

The granular ammonium sulfate market was quoted at $715/st FOB Cincinnati and $720/st FOB on the Illinois River. The last postings from AdvanSix on March 14 remained at $690/st FOB Granite City, Ill., and $700/st rail-DEL in Illinois.

Western Cornbelt:

The ammonium sulfate market was pegged at $690-$725/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt in late March, depending on location, up from the prior week’s $685-$700/st FOB range. AdvanSix’s March 14 ammonium sulfate postings in Iowa included $700/st rail-DEL for granular and $640/st rail-DEL for mid-grade.

Northern Plains:

The granular ammonium sulfate market jumped to as high as $760/st DEL from some suppliers in North Dakota in late March, with terminal pricing pegged at $755/st FOB Casselton, N.D., and Sioux City, Iowa, up from $715/st FOB at last report.

AdvanSix’s March 14 ammonium sulfate postings included granular at $690/st FOB Winona, $700/st FOB Brooten, Minn., and $715/st FOB Sioux City, with mid-grade referenced at $630/st FOB Winona. The company’s rail-DEL postings in Minnesota firmed on that date to $700/st for granular and $640/st for mid-grade.

Great Lakes:

Ammonium sulfate pricing in the Great Lakes region firmed to $725-$750/st FOB, with the low reported at Maumee, Ohio, and the high at Toledo. The Webberville market was pegged at the $730/st FOB level for March-April tons.

Northeast:

The granular ammonium sulfate market strengthened to $700-$720/st FOB in the Northeast for new offers, up significantly from the $655-$675/st FOB level reported in early March.

Eastern Canada:

The ammonium sulfate market firmed to C$990-$1,015/mt FOB in Eastern Canada, up from C$909-$920/mt FOB earlier in the month.

China:

Caprolactam-grade ammonium sulfate in China has edged up on steady demand from Southeast Asian buyers and Brazil. The range tightened to $380-$400/mt FOB as more buyers look to amsul as a replacement for the more expensive urea.

Brazil:

The landed price range for granular ammonium sulfate tightened to a new range of $500-$505/mt CFR. At the same time, Rondonopolis moved up to $700/mt FOB ex-warehouse. The demand for amsul in Brazil seems to be driven by blenders looking for a cheaper nitrogen supply than the current urea market allows.

DAP/MAP

Central Florida:

DAP and MAP trucks loading from Central Florida were posted at $945/st FOB, tightening from $910-$950/st FOB in the prior report.

North Florida MAP trucks firmed to $1,025/st FOB, up from $1,000/st FOB reported previously.

U.S. Gulf:

NOLA barge phosphate values searched for direction during the week. DAP lows reportedly fell to match the recent MAP floor, while buyers simultaneously fueled a fresh MAP high above the DAP ceiling for the first time since February.

DAP barges loading in April and May were quoted changing hands at a $960/st FOB low, slipping from the week-ago $980/st FOB, while importers quoted the top of the range even with the market’s prior $1,010/st FOB high.

The MAP low continued to be quoted at $960/st FOB, unchanged from the prior week, with the top of the range trading at a reported $1,015/st FOB, up from $995/st FOB last week, and the first time MAP barges have moved above the $1,000 FOB mark since Sept. 22, 2008. The MAP market’s all-time high, also set in mid-2008, currently stands at $1,115/st FOB.

Nearby DAP pricing was quoted in the $960-$1,010/st FOB range, slipping from $980-$1,010/st FOB at last report. MAP barges firmed to $960-$1,015/st FOB, sources said, rising from $960-$995/st FOB in the prior report.

U.S. Export:

Mosaic announced export sales of DAP and MAP into a single location in Latin America during the week. The cargoes, both valued at $1,240/mt FOB, weighed in at roughly 5,000 mt, the minimum tonnage required for inclusion in the Green Markets phosphate export range.

Based on reported sales, the Gulf DAP and MAP export markets firmed to $1,240/mt FOB, up from $1,000-$1,050/mt FOB at last report. Price guidance for the next round of business was noted at $1,250/mt FOB.

Eastern Cornbelt:

DAP pricing in the Eastern Cornbelt remained at $1,000-$1,030/st FOB regional terminals, with the Cincinnati market reported at the upper end of the range. MAP was also in the $1,000-$1,030/st FOB range in late March, with the Cincinnati market quoted solidly at the $1,020/st FOB level.

Western Cornbelt:

The DAP market was steady at $1,000-$1,030/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with MAP reported in roughly the same range. Sources pegged the lower end of both ranges at St. Louis during the week.

Northern Plains:

DAP and MAP pricing was pegged at $1,000-$1,030/st FOB St. Paul, with reports of delivered green MAP offers at the $1,050/st level in western North Dakota, up significantly from the $950-$975/st DEL range reported earlier in the month.

Great Lakes:

MAP prices had reportedly firmed to $1,025-1,050/st FOB terminals in the Great Lakes region, with the low confirmed at Maumee and the high out of spot Michigan warehouses. DAP pricing was quoted at $1,030/st FOB Maumee, $1,040/st FOB Webberville, and $1,045/st FOB Toledo.

Northeast:

Phosphate prices at East Liverpool, Ohio, firmed to $1,030/st FOB for DAP and $1,020/st FOB for MAP, up $15-$30/st from last report. Sources said no MAP tons were being offered at Fairless Hills in late March.

In the Southeast, Nutrien confirmed that its DAP and MAP postings at Aurora, N.C., had firmed to $1,025/st FOB, up from $1,000/st at last report, with MAP pricing at White Springs, Fla., also jumping to the $1,025/st FOB level for new offers.

Eastern Canada:

MAP pricing in Eastern Canada jumped to a wide C$1,350-$1,480/mt FOB range in late March, depending on supplier and location, up from C$1,200-$1,355/mt at last report. DAP pricing at Montreal was reportedly up a full C$100/mt, to C$1,400/mt FOB.

Saudi Arabia:

Saudi Arabia phosphate values firmed to $950-$1,175/mt FOB for the week, up from $950-$1,120/mt FOB at last report.

China:

Sources reported some DAP sales out of China at $1,080-$1,100/mt FOB. The quantities shipped were not large, but were tied to new deals instead of the previous shipments that were based on pre-October 2021 contracts.

So far, the Chinese government has allowed limited sales of DAP to allow producers to honor contracts that were in place before the export restrictions went into effect. With the restrictions slated to be lifted at the end of April, sources said buyers from India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Thailand will be anxious to secure what tons they can for June shipments.

The fly in the ointment for the global DAP market, however, is that the Chinese government wants to build a reserve stockpile of 1 million mt of DAP and other phosphate-based products for a special summer fertilizer program. This push to keep Chinese domestic reserves high could continue to keep the global availability of DAP at a premium.

The major buyers have already begun talks with other DAP producers, including Morocco and Jordan. However, these suppliers are more expensive than the Chinese plants.

India:

The NFL tender for 100,000 mt of DAP closed on March 28 with no offers submitted. This was the third attempt by NFL to buy two cargoes of 50,000 mt each, one for the East Coast.

Sources said the tonnage is available, but traders are nervous about getting caught leaning the wrong way in a volatile market, and producers are nervous about selling at a price that is quickly surpassed in a matter of hours.

The Indian government reacted to the rising prices of DAP by raising the maximum retail price (MRP) to RS27,000/mt (US$357/mt), up from RS25,000/mt (US$330/mt). The move included discussion of adding more money to the budget that takes effect on April 1 for fertilizer subsidies.

The current reported Chinese price for DAP would put the Indian price at $1,115-$1,130/mt CFR. The difference between the MRP and the imported price would have to be covered by an increase in subsidy expenditures.

Indonesia:

A tender for 135,000 mt of DAP or NP to four companies in multiple small shipments closed on March 23. Sources said the lowest offer of $1,135/mt CFR for DAP was too high for the Indonesians, who had a target price of $1,100/mt CFR.

The unnamed low offering company and the Indonesian buyers have gone into negotiations to reach an accord.

Sources said the small quantities of 10,000-15,000 mt for each lot could make supplying from China possible. The government offices that have to clear cargo for shipping based on domestic supplies have been loath to release large cargoes unless they were tied to pre-restriction contracts.

Brazil:

There was a slight uptick in MAP prices to $1,100-$1,250/mt CFR. The last of the pre-sanctioned Russian MAP is slated to arrive soon, leaving buyers nervous about sourcing future tons. This concern led to more aggressive bids.

Besides the general apprehension over product shortages, sources said Morocco is pushing for higher prices as the global phosphate market tightens.

The Rondonopolis price moved up as local buyers picked up top-off tons for immediate loading. Sources put the price at $1,400-$1,521/mt FOB ex-warehouse. The big concern seems to be getting material for immediate use. Sources said supplies for the season beginning in September appear to be adequate, easing long-term worries.