Eastern Cornbelt:
Potassium thiosulfate pricing remained at $750/st FOB Terre Haute for the most recent offers.
All posts by mickeybarb@charter.net
Crops/Weather
Eastern Cornbelt:
Temperatures and weather conditions varied widely across the Eastern Cornbelt during the last days of March. While highs in central and southern Illinois reached the mid-60s and low-70s at midweek, a line of strong thunderstorms on March 31 produced heavy rain and 50-60 mph winds across the region, and pushed temperatures down to the mid- to upper-40s on April 1.
Gusty winds and rain also pushed through central Indiana during the week, although highs touched the 70s in some areas of the state at midweek. As the week progressed, however, temperatures struggled to climb out of the 40s in central and northern Indiana, with reports of snow flurries in some areas on the last day of the month.
Northern Ohio experienced much of the same, with temperatures falling from the upper-60s to the 40s and 50s amid strong winds and scattered showers during the week.
Western Cornbelt:
Parts of central, southern, and eastern Iowa were hit with light snow at midweek as temperatures dipped to the mid-30s across the state. Snow accumulation ranged from 1-3 inches by the time the storm moved out, with temperatures climbing to the mid-40s on March 30-31.
Iowa’s snowfall was fed by a massive complex of thunderstorms stretching 750 miles from Louisiana to Indiana, generating at least 29 tornadoes in seven states on March 29. The system also produced thunderstorms in eastern Nebraska, and heavy rain and gusty winds across Missouri on March 30-31.
Northern Plains:
Although the week began with sunshine and warmth across much of the Northern Plains, a mix of rain and snow moved in at midweek, along with much colder temperatures.
Highs in the 50s were reported in North Dakota early in the week, before a cold front dropped highs down to the 30s and blanketed parts of eastern North Dakota with an inch or two of snow at midweek.
The same system also brought less than two inches of snow to the Twin Cities, but as much as six inches was reported in northern Minnesota and parts of northern Wisconsin. Heavy rain was reported along the Minnesota-Iowa border on March 29, with freezing rain blanketing parts of southern and central Minnesota.
A warmup was on tap again for the coming weekend, with highs expected to climb into the 50s.
Great Lakes:
Much of Wisconsin saw a “prolonged period of precipitation” during the week, according to the National Weather Service, with northern areas of the state seeing a wintry mix of freezing rain, sleet, and snow. Flood warnings were also in effect for some areas.
Michigan experienced a seesaw in weather conditions during the week. Parts of the state were under a winter weather advisory due to snow and ice on March 29, followed by highs in the 60s on March 30. On March 31, another system brought high winds, cold temperatures, and snow showers to much of Lower Michigan.
Northeast:
The week started with cold, snowy weather for much of the Northeast region, but spring-like conditions were expected as the week progressed.
A wintry mix of precipitation was reported across New England during the first half of the week, but highs were expected to push up into the 60s late in the week. Forecasts warned of rain and strong winds for much of New England on Thursday and Friday, with warm and sunny weather by the weekend.
A weather advisory was in effect at midweek for portions of central and western Pennsylvania, with forecasts warning of freezing rain and sleet. Earlier in the week, snow squalls across east-central Pennsylvania triggered a deadly pileup of roughly 60 vehicles on Interstate 81 in Schuylkill County.
Sleet, snow, 40-mph winds, and cold temperatures were also in Maryland’s forecast for the start of the week, but warmer weather was reported at midweek for much of the state, with highs reaching the 50s. Even higher temperatures on March 31 were expected to usher in an increased chance of severe thunderstorms and damaging winds, however.
Some contacts in Pennsylvania reported a busy stretch of spring application in mid-March on forage crops such as rye, wheat, and barley, with both dry and liquid fertilizer moving in topdress applications. The pace was much quieter in late March as the region gears up for corn planting.
Eastern Canada:
A mix of winter precipitation covered most of Eastern Canada as the week began, with reports of freezing rain and ice pellets across southern and eastern Ontario at midweek. A blast of much warmer air moved into southern Ontario on March 31, however, along with 90 km/h wind gusts that contributed to power outages across the region.
Environment Canada on March 30 issued a freezing rain warning for a large swath of southern Quebec, including Montreal, with forecasts warning of 2-5 mm of freezing rain across the area before temperatures warmed to high of 10 C on March 31.
A mix of ice and snow also blanketed parts of the Maritimes in late March, along with gusty winds. Warmer temperatures were expected in the Maritimes by the weekend, but colder weather and a potential for snow flurries was likely across southern Ontario on April 1-2.
Sources reported some spotty field activities in the region in late March, but cold temperatures continued to keep most fertilizer application on the sidelines. “We are still below freezing temperatures and still have snow on the ground,” said one Ontario contact. “A few guys are trying to get out on the frozen ground for a bit of wheat fertilizer application.”
Transportation
U.S. Gulf:
Water levels above 12 feet at New Orleans necessitated ongoing towing restrictions in the region. The gauge was noted at 12.97 feet and falling slowly on March 30, with forecasts predicting a break below the 12-foot mark on April 6, two days beyond the previous April 4 forecast.
Calcasieu Lock was reported shutting to daytime navigation on March 22, limiting travel through the site Monday through Thursday from 7:00 a.m. to 6:00 p.m. The effort was projected to run through May 19, with delays expected.
Daytime shutdowns were observed at Brazos Lock due to ongoing repairs and maintenance, leaving access to the lock unavailable from 7:00 a.m. to 5:00 p.m., Monday through Friday. Waits were noted in a wide 9-23 hour range on March 30. Work at the site was expected to continue into late April.
A maintenance project closed the Bayou Sorrel Bridge to navigation weekly between 7:00 a.m. and 11:00 a.m., as well as from 1:00 p.m. through 5:00 p.m. on Monday through Friday. Normal availability resumed on Saturday and Sunday. The project is slated to run through late May.
Guidewall replacement efforts at Bayou Sorrel Lock were expected to block Monday-through-Friday navigation between 6:30 a.m. and 5:00 p.m. Most delays were noted topping out around the 13-hour mark during the week, while a handful of intermittent waits were heard in the 20-32 hour range. The repairs are expected to last into early 2023.
Bayou Chene remained inaccessible nightly from 7:00 p.m. to 7:00 a.m. due to floodgate construction. Tows were able to access the waterway during daylight hours, albeit limited to 600-foot lengths. Tows measuring wider than 54 feet were required to travel with an assist vessel. Delays were projected in the 6-12 hour range during the week.
Draft limitations remained in force through Miles 113-116 of the Atchafalaya River due to ongoing shoaling observed in the Morgan City, La., area. Drafts were capped at 10 feet, while tow lengths and widths were permitted up to 600 feet and 70 feet, respectively. Tows running longer than 400 feet were strongly encouraged to travel with an assist vessel.
Algiers Lock length and width restrictions limited unassisted lockages to four standard barges or two 30,000 mt tankers per turn, helping to lift delays at the site to 34 hours during the week, rising from 15.5 hours in the prior report. Larger tows were able to navigate the lock when accompanied by an assist tug.
Construction operations on the books through the end of 2022 at the Belle Chasse Bridge were heard to prompt intermittent delays up to 12 hours at a time.
Port Allen Lock waits were clocked up to 13 hours for the week, while boats passing Industrial Lock were reported waiting up to 48 hours to pass. Harvey Lock wait times peaked around eight hours on March 30. Tows passing Colorado Lock were delayed up to five hours.
Mississippi River:
Elevated river levels remained the story of the week on the lower Mississippi River, with the conditions reportedly limiting barge counts, slowing vessel speeds, and forcing large vessels into daylight-only travel patterns through some urban areas.
The river gauge at Baton Rouge, La., was reported moving below the 35-foot minor-flood stage on March 28, registering at an action-stage 34.72 feet and falling slowly on March 30. Forecasts called for levels to remain at action stage through April 11. A flood warning and high wind warning were in effect for the area on March 30. The Vicksburg, Miss., river gauge was observed at an action-stage 39.85 feet on March 30.
Intermittent Lock 19 delays were reported in the 9-13 hour range during the week. Mel Price Lock waits were noted in the 4-8 hour range, while most Lock 27 wait times were counted at 6-12 hours.
Illinois River:
Large-scale maintenance and repair operations at Brandon Road Lock will impact navigation through the site between May 9 and Sept. 8, a Corps posting indicated. Tow widths will be limited to 70 feet for the duration of the project, while navigation will be available during nighttime hours only from May 9 to Aug. 14.
The lock will undergo a total shutdown from Aug. 15 through Sept. 4, followed by a return to overnight-only travel on Sept. 5-8. Operations are projected to normalize on Sept. 9.
Wait times at Marseilles Lock were noted up to 11 hours during the week, and Starved Rock Lock travel required up to 5.5 hours. Wickets were down at both Peoria Lock and LaGrange Lock during the week, allowing tows to pass both sites without locking.
Ohio River:
Main chamber repairs at Emsworth Lock, underway since Feb. 22, continued to impact navigation times during the week. The main chamber was completely unavailable to transit, leaving vessels to detour through the secondary chamber one barge at a time. As a result, delays stretched to 4-6 days for the week. The project is slated to run through April 16.
A main chamber shutdown running through April 8 at Dashields Lock was noted forcing movements through the auxiliary chamber. Delays jumped to 2-4 days for the week, rising from 56 hours in the prior report.
Cannelton Lock repairs prompted weekly daytime travel shutdowns on Wednesday and Thursday, triggering delays up to a reported 12 hours. The project was expected to continue through May 26. An additional main chamber shutdown was proposed for July 5 through Nov. 11.
Belleville Lock is scheduled to undergo a main chamber closure from May 2 to June 22, triggering detours through the auxiliary chamber. A Corps proposal would close the Hannibal Lock main chamber from July 5 to Oct. 8.
On the Tennessee River, the Wilson Lock main chamber is shut through April 28 for repairs and maintenance, resulting in lengthy detours through the auxiliary chamber. Following a March 18-23 main chamber reopening to pass waiting vessels, delays through the site were reported rising to 2-4 days during the week. Waits were expected to slowly grow to seven days or more in the coming weeks.
The Cumberland River’s Barkley Lock was closed to daytime navigation on March 21-27 for Bio-Acoustic Fish Fence (BAFF) maintenance. Detours were available via Kentucky Lock and Barkley Lock while the project was underway.
A Cheatham Lock miter gate machinery repair project has been scheduled for May 16 through Aug. 5. The lock is expected to see a repeating pattern of 11-day shutdowns, followed by a three-day opening window. Delays are expected to be substantial.
Arkansas River:
Norrell Lock repairs and maintenance will limit daytime navigation during a pattern of 10-day blocks slated to run into January 2023. Navigation is scheduled to be unavailable daily, from 7:00 a.m. to 7:00 p.m., on June 1-11; June 22-July 21; Aug. 1-10; Aug. 21-Sept. 21; Sept. 3-Oct. 9; Oct. 20-Nov. 18; Nov. 29-Dec. 23; and Jan. 3-31, 2023.
Yara Restarting Production in Italy, France
Yara International ASA, Oslo, has begun the restart of ammonia production at its sites in Ferrara, Italy, and Le Havre, France, CEO Svein Tore Holsether told Reuters on April 1.
Yara announced on March 9 that it was temporarily curtailing production at the two sites, which combined have an annual ammonia capacity of 1 million mt/y and urea of .9 million mt/y (GM March 11, p. 1).
Including optimization and maintenance at other production facilities, Yara said its European ammonia and urea production was expected to be operating at approximately 45 percent of capacity. There was no word on April 1 as to the status of the other plants.
Around the time of Yara’s March 9 announcement and afterwards, several other European nitrogen producers also announced plant curtailments or reduced rates, including Borealis AG, Nitrogenmuvex, EuroChem Group AG, Achema, Petrokemija, and Grupa Azoty (GM March 18, p. 1).
Crops/Weather
Eastern Cornbelt:
Cool, windy, and wet conditions were reported across much of the Eastern Cornbelt during the week. Forecasts warned of a wintry mix of rain and snow in northern Illinois by the weekend, with temperatures topping out in the upper-30s and mid-40s.
Similar conditions were reported in Indiana, with much of the state enduring rain and 50-degree highs during the first half of the week. Cooler weather was on tap late in the week, with highs topping out in the 40s in northern Indiana and the low-50s in southern Indiana.
Central and northern Ohio also experienced light to moderate rains at midweek, along with gusty winds. Late in the week, however, highs in the mid-40s were expected, with lake-effect snow bands taking shape over the weekend. For some parts of northern Ohio, weekend highs were not expected to climb above the low-30s.
Western Cornbelt:
Widespread rain was reported across Iowa as the week progressed, including spotty snow showers on March 24 in some areas. A wind advisory was issued for much of Iowa on March 25, with 40-50 mph gusts expected across central and northern Iowa, and highs only expected to reach the mid- to upper-40s by the weekend.
Damp and dreary weather was also reported across central and northern Missouri during the week. Strong winds battered much of Nebraska, with temperatures reaching the 70s in western Nebraska as the week progressed. Eastern areas of Nebraska struggled to break out of the high-40s to mid-50s during the week, however.
California:
After a wet weekend with highs topping out in the 60s, much of Northern California saw temperatures soar well into the 70s during the first days of spring, with some locations notching highs in the mid-80s.
The heat wave also blanketed Southern California, with a number of daily record highs posted on March 22-24. In San Diego County, Ramona posted a high of 83 degrees on March 22, some 15-20 degrees above average.
Drought conditions continued to expand across California. As of mid-March, the entire state was experiencing mostly severe drought, with broad areas of extreme drought covering Central and Northern California, along with a narrow slice of the inland southern region.
Spring application was “starting to take off” in the state, according to one source, but early volumes were down for some areas.
“With a portion of our area’s almonds frosted, and weak tree nut pricing overall, we aren’t surprised to experience a year-to-date drop of +-10 percent in our tons sold,” commented one contact. “In normal years, this open weather would mean a solid uptick. That is not the case this year.”
Pacific Northwest:
Although parts of coastal Oregon experienced cool, wet weather earlier in the week, temperatures climbed to the upper-60s and low-70s across western Oregon at midweek, with parts of southwestern Oregon notching highs near the 80-degree mark on March 22.
Similar weather conditions were reported in southern Idaho, with highs expected to reach the mid-70s late in the week. Cooler temperatures and light rains were reported in northern Idaho at midweek.
Parts of western Montana collected several inches of wet, heavy snow as the work week started, but much warmer temperatures followed, with highs climbing to the 50s and low-60s by midweek.
Much of Montana, southern Idaho, and Oregon remained in some form of drought in late March, with a wide swath of extreme-to-exceptional drought covering central and western Oregon. A huge expanse of extreme drought was also reported across central Montana.
Spring application was ramping up quickly in the region. “It’s been held up with cool, wet weather, but that should be behind us after today,” said one Washington contact at midweek. “It looks like a warm, typical spring going forward. Our truck activity ramped up starting Friday last week, but will be full tilt tomorrow.”
Western Canada:
The week began with reports of heavy snow and strong winds across Alberta on March 20-21, followed by much warmer weather at midweek. Temperatures climbed to the upper teens in southern Alberta on March 23, with unseasonably warm weather also reported as far north as Fort McMurray.
Double-digit heat was reported in central and southern Saskatchewan as well, but a wintry mix of freezing rain and snow was in the March 24-25 forecast for the region, along with potentially strong winds.
Rain and snow were also reported in southern Manitoba on March 21-22, with reports of 15-25 mm of precipitation in the Red River Valley and up to 20 cm of snow in the Thunder Bay region. Winnipeg reportedly collected 5-10 mm of rain and 10-15 cm of snow as the system worked through the province.
Sources reported some floating application happening in southern Alberta in late March, but most of Western Canada was still a good three weeks from spring fertilizer activity. “People will really be getting antsy unless we get some snow here, or it starts raining,” said one contact. “We’re hoping for one those things to happen, as we need to get some moisture built up here.”
Itafos Reports Record Results for FY21
Phosphate producer Itafos Inc., Houston, reported record 2021 results and robust fourth-quarter earnings as it expects continued strength in 2022 – citing low global inventory levels, no significant additions of supply capacity, stable phosphate fertilizer demand, reduced supply from Russia, global disruption of supply chains of raw materials following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and China’s decision to severely restrict phosphate fertilizer exports through at least June 2022.
“We made great progress in reshaping the fundamentals of our company during 2021, which resulted in record operational and financial performance, including full-year revenues of $413.2 million, adjusted EBITDA of $143.4 million, and world class safety metrics,” Itafos CEO G. David Delaney said.
Full-year net income was $51.4 million on revenues of $413.2 million, up from 2020’s loss of $62.3 million and $260.2 million, respectively. Adjusted EBITDA was $143.4 million, up from $15 million. The company said Itafos Conda produced 536,603 mt during the year, up from 2020’s 516,480 mt.
DAP NOLA prices averaged $715/st in fourth quarter 2021 compared to the year-ago $368/st, up 94 percent year-over-year, driven by strong agriculture and phosphate fertilizer market supply and demand dynamics. Similarly, DAP NOLA prices averaged $602/st in FY21 compared to $312/st in FY20, up 93 percent year-over-year.
Itafos’ fourth-quarter highlights included revenues of $116.8 million compared to the year-ago $75.1 million; adjusted EBITDA of $47.9 million compared to $4.8 million; and net income of $24.3 million compared to a $9.4 million loss.
Delaney noted the company is looking to continue to build upon further improved financial and operational performance in 2022, aided by rising prices and solid volume demand in its markets. Its guidance for this fiscal year expects adjusted EBITDA of $190-$230 million, net income of $65-$95 million, basic earnings of C$0.44-$0.65/share, maintenance capex of $13-$23 million, growth capex of $12-$22 million, and free cash flow of $135-$165 million.
“Our full-year guidance for 2022 reflects the continued strength of the business and our expectations of increasingly strong fundamentals in the agriculture and phosphate fertilizer markets,” said Delaney.
In 2022, Itafos said it will continue to focus on deleveraging its balance sheet with cash flows from the business, extending Conda’s mine life through permitting and development of its H1/NDR mining operation, and evaluating strategic alternatives for its non-North American assets.
Senator Portman Says DOC Should Reclassify Russia as Nonmarket Economy
The Biden administration should take additional trade actions – including naming Russia a nonmarket economy (NME) – to put pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin and his allies amid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Sen. Rob Portman (R-Ohio) said March 21 in a speech on the Senate floor, as reported by Bloomberg.
“The Commerce Department should reclassify Russia as a nonmarket economy, making it easier to bring unfair trade cases against them,” said Portman, who is also the former U.S. Trade Representative. “It is appropriate to reclassify them, because up to 70 percent of their economy is now run by the government.”
DOC last fall was asked to reclassify Russia as an NME, but relented after pressure from a Russian delegation, Portman contended.
DOC launched the market economy status investigation at the end of July 2021 as a result of antidumping and countervailing investigations into Russian imports of UAN. The U.S. International Trade Commission last August found a “reasonable indication” that such imports are materially injuring the domestic industry. But the agency decided last October to retain Russia’s market economy status.
In light of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, DOC should “reconsider that decision and ensure that Russia is reclassified as a nonmarket economy,” Portman said, noting that several countries, including China and Belarus, are already classified as NME economies.
“This means these countries don’t have a free market,” Portman said. “Instead, they have policies that restrict the flow of capital, involve government in the running of the economy, and don’t allow wages to be set in free bargaining between labor and management. When a country is a nonmarket economy, it means our trading forces have an easier time being tougher on those countries when they sell products here that are unfairly priced. It’s time to do it.”
Russia gained market economy status from the U.S. in 2002 (GM June 10, 2002), much to the chagrin of some members of the U.S. fertilizer industry, who argued the revocation might make it harder to use antidumping laws to counteract import surges from Russia. The Ad Hoc Committee of Domestic Nitrogen Producers (CDNP), in particular, voiced strong objections to the revocation (GM March 25, 2002).
Additionally, the ITC should “bring the full might of U.S. trade remedy law to bear on Russian companies,” Portman said. He noted that he and Finance Committee colleague Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) last week sent a letter to the agency on the matter.
“Given Russia’s behavior, including its manipulation of trade flows in pursuit of maligned strategic objectives and exceptional involvement of the state in the domestic economy, we asked the commission to take these into account in cases involving Russia when they violate our trade laws,” Portman said.
Access to U.S. markets is a “privilege, not a right,” Portman said. “The urgency of the moment means we have to find a way to stop preferred access to our market,” he said. “Let’s do it this week.”
Mosaic Reports Higher Revenues on Lower Volumes for January-February
The Mosaic Co., Tampa, on March 21 reported higher revenues on lower volumes for each major company segment – Potash, Phosphates, and Mosaic Fertilizantes. It said logistical constraints continue to impact shipments with rail delays in Canada and Central Florida through the first two months of the year, which are expected to continue through the end of the first quarter.
In addition, potash shipments were expected to be further impacted by the Canadian Pacific Railway work stoppage. As a result, sales volumes for the first quarter of 2022 are now expected to be at or near the low end of previous guidance ranges for both Potash and Phosphates.
| Potash | Jan/Feb 22 | Jan/Feb 21 |
| Sales Volumes (000 mt) | 1,048 | 1,241 |
| Sales Revenues ($M) | 604 | 295 |
| Phosphates | Jan/Feb 22 | Jan/Feb 21 |
| Sales Volumes (000 mt) | 999 | 1,355 |
| Sales Revenues ($M) | 873 | 634 |
| Mosaic Fertilizantes | Jan/Feb 22 | Jan/Feb 21 |
| Sales Volumes (000 mt) | 1,118 | 1,429 |
| Sales Revenues ($M) | 870 | 523 |
AmmPower Small-Scale Ammonia Plant Prototype Near Completion
Technology company AmmPower Corp., Toronto, said on March 18 that its prototype for the IAMM™ agricultural unit, the Independent Ammonia Making Machine™ (GM Feb. 11, p. 1), is near completion.
The company said the prototype is completely scalable in its technology stack, and the sales cycle beginning next quarter will aim to sell IAMM™ units – capable of generating 4 mt/d of carbon-free green ammonia – at tradeshows and direct to consumers.
AmmPower said it intends to price the units competitively, having regard to maximizing prospective customers’ return on investment and eligibility for carbon credits and similar government incentives. The company earlier suggested a price tag of $3-$3.5 million.
“The farming space has always been subject to high volatility due to factors out of its control,” said AmmPower Director of Sales and Marketing, Agriculture Eric Kelley. “The IAMM™ unit allows farmers to take charge of their own ammonia supply. The fact that the ammonia is green, with no reliance on natural gas, is an added bonus for all stakeholders involved. I feel that the IAMM™ will be a critical disruptor in a quickly evolving agricultural market.”
JBS Starts Organic Fertilizer Production in Brazil
Giant meat company JBS SA started to produce organic fertilizer at its unit located in Guaiçara, in the state of Sao Paulo, and foresees 150,000 mt/y production, according to Bloomberg, citing a company statement. Greeley, Colo.-based JBS invested 134 million reais ($26.74 million) in the plant.
JBS will be the first Brazil food producer to use waste generated from its own operations to produce fertilizer, according to a Reuters report that also said the plant marks the company’s debut in the ag inputs market. JBS announced plans for such a facility in 2017 (GM Aug. 25, 2017).