India
could buy 1 million mt of potash from Belarus in 2022 by paying with rupees,
according to a Reuters report this
week, citing two unidentified Indian officials.
India
has suggested that Belarus potash marketing/exporting company Belarusian Potash
Co. (BPC) could open a rupee account with a state-run Indian bank for potash
sales as sanctions imposed by the U.S. and European Union (E.U.) restrict
Belarus’ potash trade in U.S. dollars and euros.
The deal
could be sealed later this month, according to the report.
Potash
shipments under BPC and India’s 2021 supply contracts – as with the BPC’s 2021
supply contracts with China – were not subject to the sanctions implemented by
the E.U. on Belaruskali/BPC on June 25 last year (GM June 25, 2021).
But
according to the Reuters report, citing
the two Indian officials, about 150,000 mt of potash shipments from Belarus
have been stuck because of payment issues. However, this could not be verified
by Green Markets atpress time, or whether the shipments
concerned were contract shipments.
India’s
biggest potash importer, Indian Potash Ltd. (IPL), and BPC agreed to the supply
of 800,000 mt of potash for delivery to India through the end of December 2021
under last year’s annual supply contract, concluded in late January 2021 (GM Jan. 29, 2021).
The deal was concluded at $247/mt CFR with 180 days’ credit, a price level considered to be “low-ball” by most of the other major potash producers, who believed the price was not reflective of prevailing market conditions (GM Feb. 5, 2021). A new contract price of $280/mt CFR with 180 days’ credit was negotiated between the two companies in early April following ICL Group’s settlement of a new annual contract with IPL at that price level (GM April 9, 2021).
India imported a total of 852,007 million mt of potash from Belarus in the 11 months to the end of November 2021, accounting for some 29 percent of India’s total potash imports of 2.97 million mt in that period, according to Trade Data Monitor. This is up on India’s imports from Belarus in the same prior-year period – some 703,014 million mt, about 15 percent of India’s total potash imports of 4.72 million mt.
Higher
global prices capped India’s potash imports in 2021.
However,
it is unclear how Lithuania’s decision to halt the transit of Belarusian potash
on its state-owned railway Lietuvos Geležinkeliai’s (LTG) from Feb. 1 – effectively
blocking the export shipment of most of Belarus’ potash (GM Jan. 14, p. 1) – will affect or delay Belarus’ potential new
potash exports to India.
Most of
Belarus’ potash exports – some 10.7 million mt out of a total of 11.8 million
mt in 2020 – hitherto were railed via Lithuania’s LTG rail system for onward
shipment from the port of Klaipėda.
The
Lithuanian government’s decision last month to end the railway contract between
LTG and Belaruskali was taken due to “national security concerns.”
Belarus
claimed this week that it has started to re-direct its potash shipments to
Russian ports for onward export, according to a Bloomberg report, citing Interfax,
which in turn cited Belarus Prime Minister Roman Golovchenko.
Golovchenko
provided no details on which Russian ports were being used for the Belarus
potash shipments or on the volumes involved. But he said due to the longer land
transit distances involved, Belarus has lost some margin given the higher
transportation costs.
However,
the Belarus claim has been refuted by Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Pesov, as
cited by a subsequent Interfax report
on Feb. 2.
Pesov
said the possible re-routing of Belarusian potash to Russian ports is “on
the agenda” and is being discussed, but the re-routing of shipments has
not begun just yet, as cited by Interfax.
“Though financing is likely outside the U.S. financial system, it is still unclear if Belarus has the ability to rail through Russia the volumes India demands,” said Green Markets Research Director Alexis Maxwell.
Belarus
said it has “prepared all necessary logistical solutions” to
re-orient all of its transit flows to sea ports of countries seen as
“reliable partners.”
BPC
last month was reported to have submitted a request to LTG for the rail company
to transport Belaruskali OAO potash from Jan. 24, arguing it was necessary for
it to meet its obligations to sell potash through the Lithuanian port of
Klaipėda, according to a report by Warsaw, Poland-based Belsat TV, citing LTG’s website (GM Jan. 28, p. 28).
Lithuania’s
Head of the Committee of National Security and Defense of the Seimas
(unicameral parliament) Laurynas Kasčiūnas was cited by the report as saying
the chances to by-pass the ban on the transit of Belarusian potash/fertilizers
in Lithuania were “almost zero,” given that the commission would
consider such a transit “a threat to national security.”
Separately,
Belaruskali is seeking to get the Lithuanian government’s decision to terminate
the contract between the company and LTG overturned, and last week filed a
complaint with the Vilnius Regional Administrative Court.
In a retaliatory move, Belarus this week banned the rail transit of oil products, chemicals, and mineral fertilizers from Lithuania starting Feb. 7, according to a Bloomberg report, citing an unnamed Belarusian ministry. According to the report, the ban will affect the annual transit of some 1.5-1.6 million mt of goods worth more than $1 billion.
LTG’s
press service confirmed to Bloomberg
it ships fertilizers and oil products via Belarus.