All posts by mickeybarb@charter.net

Urea

Black Sea, Brazil, China, Eastern Cornbelt, India, Indonesia, Market Watch, Middle East, Pakistan, South Central, Southeast, Southern Plains, Turkey, U.S. Gulf, Urea, Western Cornbelt

U.S. Gulf:

Some have seen no rhyme or reason for this year’s volatile NOLA urea market, though most of this week’s movement was attributed to India’s tender for urea. Prices ran up as high as $650/st FOB before declining.

Urea trades over the past week for February were reported in the $575-$650/st FOB range, compared to the week-ago $485-$590/st FOB. March trades were put at $575-$670/st FOB and April at $570-$575/st FOB.

Eastern Cornbelt:

Urea prices saw an uptick in the Eastern Cornbelt during the week, fueled by a NOLA barge market that initially strengthened before once again falling as the week advanced. Sources quoted the regional market at $680-$710/st FOB, up from the previous week’s $630-$650/st FOB, with the low confirmed in the Illinois market.

Urea pricing at Cincinnati, Ohio, reportedly moved up to $705-$710/st FOB as the week progressed, up from an earlier low of $685-$700/st FOB. Indiana sources reported the river terminal market at the $700/st FOB level at midweek.

Western Cornbelt:

Urea prices reportedly firmed to $655-$695/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, up from the prior week’s $620-$655/st FOB range, depending on location. The St. Paul, Minn., market was pegged in the $650-$660/st FOB range for river-open tons.

Southern Plains:

Urea pricing reportedly firmed to $685-$705/st FOB Catoosa/Inola, Okla., as the week progressed, depending on supplier, up from $620-$655/st FOB during the previous week. No current pricing levels were reported at Houston, Texas, due to market volatility, sources said.

South Central:

Sources said urea prices in the South Central region were rebounding as the week progressed, fueled by continued NOLA pricing volatility and a jump in prices following a recent India tender call.

The low end of the regional market was pegged at $650-$655/st FOB Memphis, Tenn., while pricing at Convent, La., had reportedly jumped to $660/st FOB from the prior week’s low of $610-$620/st FOB. Urea terminals in Arkansas generally fell in the $690-$695/st FOB range at midweek.

Southeast:

Sources reported volatile urea pricing in the Southeast during the week, with some terminals seeing prices rebound from the prior week’s lows.

The market FOB Wilmington, N.C., was pegged at a firm $690/st FOB at midweek, up from $680/st FOB late the previous week. Pricing at Savannah, Ga., had reportedly jumped to $700/st FOB from a low of $640/st FOB in late January.

India:

Last week closed with IPL calling a tender, which will close on Feb. 7 with a shipping deadline of March 20.

Sources noted that Indian companies rarely call a tender for delivery to be completed just as the fiscal year ends. In several past tenders, the call was made in March, but delivery and payment occurred after April 1 when the new fiscal year starts.

Sources estimated India is still about 1.2 million mt short of its basic urea needs for this season. The deficit is in part due to limited awards in the 2021 tenders because of rising prices and limited availability.

The bulk of the shortage, however, was because India could no longer depend on 2 million mt coming from OMIFCO at favorable rates. The inability to negotiate a new supply contract left the country short of tons that it once received on a regular basis, along with the 6-8 million mt it needed to buy under the tender process.

There is a consensus that prices in the new tender will be lower than the $894-$899/mt CFR paid in the last tender. How much lower is up for discussion. Sources said the most recent Egyptian price of $735/mt FOB could translate to a West Coast India price of around $770/mt CFR. At the same time, however, the high bid in the scrapped Indonesian tender of $666/mt FOB would translate to a price just under $700/mt CFR to India.

Reportedly, traders are taking steps to ensure they have the tons under contract before they make an offer. In the past, some producers would work with a variety of traders, figuring at least one would get an award. This time, because there are limited resources for export urea, no one is taking a chance.

Even with the China export ban in place, some sources said a couple of cargoes from China might be included in the mix. Reportedly, some traders and producers are making arguments to customs officials that some areas in China have enough urea on hand to cover their needs, so some of the excess material can be exported. Sources said at least two cargoes might be available under this type of action.

The Indian government released its proposed 2022/23 budget this week. After rumors that the amount for subsidies would be increased by about 19 percent, the revealed numbers actually showed a drop. The amount for urea subsidies was set at US$8.5 billion, down 17 percent from the 2021/22 budget even after revisions to the existing budget that increased the funds for subsidies.

Fertilizer industry and farmers’ groups criticized the proposed budget. For its part, the government said it has had a long policy of looking to move away from subsidies and will seek other ways to help farmers.

Indonesia:

Two quick-selling tenders closed on Feb. 3. Kaltim looked to sell 45,000 mt of granular urea for March shipping, while Pusri offered 5,000-10,000 mt of prilled urea for shipment in late February. Neither company offered a reserve price.

In the end, both tenders were scrapped. Sources reported the highest bid in the Kaltim tender was $666/mt FOB, and the highest bid for the prilled urea was $708/mt FOB. If the two companies follow past practices, they will now go into a series of private talks with the trading houses to come up with a new set of prices for the material. At the same time, the producers may sweeten the deals by offering more tons for export.

The $666/mt FOB bid in the Kaltim tender was up against calculations on the equivalent price of the Egyptian urea sold over the past week. The last deal from Egypt settled at $735/mt FOB for an equivalent price into India of $770/mt CFR. Working back to Indonesia, that cargo would be about $740/mt FOB.

Exports of urea for 2021 were reported at 2 million mt, about 15 percent down from 2020 exports of 2.4 million mt, according to Trade Data Monitor.No one buyer dominated the Indonesian sales books.

Country Quantity (mt) % Of Indonesia Exports
Philippines 299,000 14.7
Australia 290,000 14.3
India 245,000 12.0
Vietnam 205,000 10.0

December 2021 exports were down dramatically, to 54,000 mt from December 2020 exports of 216,000 mt. Normally the December-February export numbers are low because the producers focus on the domestic market. Also, usually by December the producers will have used up their export permits for the year.

Exports to Australia are expected to show a marked increase in the first quarter of this year. A deal was struck to send more urea to Australia to cover needs for its emissions control program. In the past, Australia bought the urea it needed from China. With the Chinese holding back on urea exports and engaged in a political squabble with Australia, however, the buyers went for a much closer source of urea.

China:

Sources said talks are taking place that might shake a couple of cargoes loose for March shipment. Reportedly, traders and producers are talking with customs officials to demonstrate that some areas of China have sufficient urea supplies to manage local needs. Any excess material, they argue, should be allowed to be exported.

At the same time, traders are also talking with producers to line up material for shipment once the export ban is lifted at the end of April. One trader noted that if rumors are correct, Chinese ports will have a large line up of vessels waiting to pick up urea through May.

Middle East:

Sales out of Egypt started moving up late last week and continued into this week. By Wednesday, sources reported a sale of 5,000 mt at $735/mt FOB. This deal comes on the heels of larger quantities working the price up from $715/mt FOB with each new deal.

To add fire to the Egyptian market, sources reported that EABC in Ethiopia awarded Fertiglobe 450,000 mt from its most recent tender. The reported netback to Egypt was put at $755/mt FOB for shipments in the first quarter, and $710/mt FOB for shipments in April and May.

The paper market for Egyptian material was reported at $745/mt FOB for February and $735/mt FOB for March.

Producers in the Arab Gulf reportedly were talking about prices just under $700/mt FOB late last week until the India tender was announced. Sources said the producers have now gone quiet with their public expectations for pricing. They are, however, in talks with any and all who want to participate in the Indian tender.

Reportedly, there is enough excess material available for March loadings to make IPL happy. The only question now boils down to the price. The bids into the Indonesian tenders and the sales out of Egypt could lead producers to hold out for prices in the mid-$700s/mt FOB. The paper market agrees with this level, with quotes at $745/mt FOB for February. The March paper market is pegged at $735/mt FOB.

Pakistan:

According to local media reports, Pakistan is about ready to receive the first 50,000 mt of a 100,000 mt deal cut with China. After two failed attempts by TCP to purchase urea in open tenders, the Pakistan government engaged with the Chinese government for a deal.

Black Sea:

Limited production is affecting the availability of product at Yuzhnyy. Sources said the combination of high gas prices and tension between Russia and Ukraine is hurting output.

Sources have been calling the Black Sea market in the $700s/mt FOB, but with no spot material to test those offers. The public price remains in the $840s/mt FOB based on the last Indian tender.

Traders said few seem willing to talk with Russian producers for material to offer in the Indian tender. Not only are they seeing limited tonnage available, some are reportedly concerned that if Russia and Ukraine come to blows, sanctions against Russian interests could impact deals with Russian urea producers.

Turkey:

Imports of urea for 2021 were reported at 2.7 million mt, up 7 percent from 2020 imports of 2.5 million mt, according to Trade Data Monitor.

The main supplier was Oman with 1.5 million mt, accounting for 55 percent of the import market. Egypt sent 527,000 mt for 20 percent of the market, and Turkmenistan sold 283,000 mt for 10.5 percent of the market. Iranian sales to Turkey dropped to 186,000 mt in 2021, down 64 percent from 510,000 mt in 2020.

December 2021 imports were reported at 196,000 mt, up 76 percent from December 2020 imports of 111,000 mt. Oman, Turkmenistan, and Egypt sent a total of 141,000 mt in December 2021.

Brazil:

What started as a general softness in the market ended with upward movement in portside pricing. Sources reported deals at $540-$650/mt CFR.

The softness initially came as buyers stepped away from the market, forcing some sellers to lower prices to reduce inventories. The weekend announcement of an Indian urea tender, however, raised concern that urea that might be booked for March shipment to Brazil may end up going to India instead.

Prices in Rondonopolis also edged upward on word of the Indian tender. Sources now put the price at $750-$800/mt FOB ex-warehouse.

UAN

Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, South Central, Southeast, Southern Plains, U.S. Gulf, UAN, Western Cornbelt

U.S. Gulf:

NOLA UAN barges continued at $545-$550/st ($17.03-$17.19/unit) FOB. March continued to be put at $560/st and second-quarter at $575/st or higher.

Eastern Cornbelt:

UAN-28 pricing had reportedly slipped to $508-$515/st ($18.14-$18.39/unit) FOB Cincinnati for prompt tons and $534-$537/st ($19.07-$19.18/unit) FOB for spring prepay. UAN-32 was quoted at $580-$600/st ($18.13-$18.75/unit) FOB for prompt and $605-$610/st ($18.91-$19.06/unit) FOB for prepay tons in Illinois and Indiana, with the Cincinnati market unchanged at $610/st ($19.06/unit) FOB for spring prepay.

Western Cornbelt:

The UAN-32 market was steady at $590/st ($18.44/unit) FOB St. Louis, Mo., for March tons and $605/st ($18.91/unit) for April-June, with the upper end of the regional market pegged at $610-$620/st ($19.06-$19.38/unit) FOB in Iowa and Nebraska for 2Q tons.

Southern Plains:

The UAN-32 market FOB Oklahoma production points remained at $560-$590/st ($17.50-$18.44/unit) FOB for prompt tons and $575-$605/st ($17.97-$18.91/unit) FOB for spring, depending on location. The last offers for prompt tons in Central Texas included $585/st ($18.28/unit) DEL, netting back to roughly $565/st ($17.66/unit) FOB Houston.

South Central:

The upper end of the regional UAN-32 market for prompt or spring tons was quoted at $605/st ($18.91/unit) river terminals in Kentucky. No current offers were confirmed at Memphis, while the last prices FOB Donaldsonville, La., were pegged at $550-$555/st ($17.19-$17.34/unit) FOB for February, $565/st ($17.66/unit) for March, and $585/st ($18.28/unit) for April-June.

Southeast:

UAN-32 pricing at most port terminals in the Southeast was pegged at $590-$600/st ($18.44-18.75/unit) FOB, with reports of recent UAN-30 offers at the $553/st ($18.43/unit) level FOB Wilmington. The low end of the regional UAN-32 market was reported at the $540/st ($16.88/unit) FOB level out of spot inland terminals in the Georgia market.

Ammonium Nitrate

Ammonium Nitrate, Market Watch, South Central, Southeast, Southern Plains, Western Cornbelt

Western Cornbelt:

The ammonium nitrate market continued to be quoted at $700-$730/st FOB regional terminals for prompt or prepay, with prepay offers still reportedly on the table at $720/st FOB Lamar, Mo., and $730/st FOB St. Joseph, Mo.

Southern Plains:

The ammonium nitrate market remained at $700/st FOB Muskogee, Okla., and $710/st FOB Pryor for the last prompt or spring prepay offers.

South Central:

The last confirmed ammonium nitrate prices remained in the $690-$700/st FOB range out of terminals in the South Central region. No current pricing offers were reported at Yazoo City, Miss., in early February.

Southeast:

The last Tampa ammonium nitrate business was reported at the $750/st FOB level.

Ammonium Sulfate

Ammonium Sulfate, Brazil, China, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, South Central, Southeast, Southern Plains, Turkey, U.S. Gulf, Western Cornbelt

U.S. Gulf:

Ammonium sulfate barges were reported at $585-$590/st FOB, up from the week-ago $585/st FOB. Product was reportedly being offered above the $600/st FOB mark.

Eastern Cornbelt:

Sources said the Cincinnati ammonium sulfate market ranged broadly at $595-$610/st FOB, with the inland terminal market reported at $610-$630/st FOB. Michigan sources quoted the granular market firmly at $675-$680/st FOB Toledo.

Western Cornbelt:

Ammonium sulfate pricing remained at $605-$630/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, depending on location, with the St. Louis market quoted at $605-$610/st FOB.

Southern Plains:

The granular ammonium sulfate market was quoted at $560-$585/st FOB Houston, but pricing at Catoosa/Inola had reportedly firmed to $630-$635/st FOB, up significantly from the start of the year.

South Central:

Ammonium sulfate prices continued to edge higher at some terminal locations in the South Central region. While the low end of the regional market remained at $590-$595/st FOB Memphis, the upper end had reportedly firmed to $605-$635/st FOB terminals in Arkansas and Kentucky, up from $580-$600/st FOB at last report.

Southeast:

Ammonium sulfate pricing FOB Hopewell, Va., remained at the Jan. 6 posted prices of $550/st for granular, $520/st for mid-grade, and $500/st for standard, with reports of a possible increase coming in March. Delivered pricing in Florida was pegged at $565/st for standard and $615/st for granular.

China:

With the Lunar New Year also came reduced demand as countries in the area took time off to celebrate. Sources said the lagging interest dropped prices to $280-$290/mt FOB for caprolactam-grade amsul.

Reportedly, even softer prices are anticipated despite expectations that supplies from China will remain limited for the next few weeks. Factories near the Winter Olympic Games have been ordered to either cut back on production or shut down. The directive was to eliminate air pollution near the Olympic sites.

Turkey:

Imports of ammonium sulfate for 2021 were reported at 830,000 mt, up 180 percent from 2020 imports of 297,000 mt, according to Trade Data Monitor. The main suppliers were China with 466,000 mt, for 56 percent of the export market into Turkey, and South Korea with 95,000 mt, for 11 percent of that market.

December 2021 imports were reported at only 9,000 mt, compared with 25,000 mt imported in December 2020.

Brazil:

Prices softened to $300-$430/mt CFR in Brazil. The lower levels came as buyers were initially seeing softer urea prices, meaning fewer tons of ammonium sulfate were needed as a substitute. At the same time, the price out of China was softening.

The lower prices worked their way to Rondonopolis. Sources reported deals at $530/mt FOB ex-warehouse, a drop of $140/mt in just one week.

DAP/MAP

Brazil, Central Florida, China, DAP/MAP, Eastern Cornbelt, India, Market Watch, Saudi Arabia, South Central, Southeast, Southern Plains, U.S. Gulf, Western Cornbelt

Central Florida:

Sources noted steady Central Florida DAP truck pricing for the week, with postings continuing to be heard at $785/st FOB. MAP trucks were called even with DAP at $785/st FOB, also flat from the prior report.

MAP trucks loading from North Florida were posted at $780/st FOB, unmoved from one week earlier.

U.S. Gulf:

Players described a busy week on the NOLA barge phosphate markets, with prices for both DAP and MAP bouncing from week-ago lows.

DAP barges loading in the 30-day window were noted at a $675/st FOB floor early in the trading week, rising from the week-ago $650/st FOB floor. February loadings were reported firming to $702/st FOB in the course of the trading period, with $710/st FOB offers reported on Feb. 3 expected to add further upside pressure in the short term. All-March barges were quoted trading in the $690-$710/st FOB range.

MAP barges moved higher as well, with players noting early-week sales at a $698/st FOB low. Most saw the top of the nearby market at $713/st FOB, up from the prior $705/st FOB ceiling.

DAP barges were quoted firming to the $675-$702/st FOB range, up from $650-$675/st FOB reported previously. NOLA MAP barges were quoted at $698-$713/st FOB, players indicated, an increase from $695-$705/st FOB at last report.

U.S. Exports:

Sources noted the Gulf export phosphate markets was unchanged for the week, with last-reported spot trading holding at $810/mt FOB, flat from the prior report.

Eastern Cornbelt:

DAP pricing continued to edge lower, with new offers reported at $730-$750/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, down from the prior week’s $740-$760/st FOB range. Illinois terminals were commonly reported at the lower end of the range, while the Cincinnati market ranged broadly from $735-$750/st FOB, depending on supplier and time of the week.

MAP was pegged at $750-$785/st FOB in the region, with both the high and low confirmed in the Cincinnati market, depending on supplier. The Ottawa MAP market was quoted at the $775/st FOB level. Michigan sources reported the Toledo MAP market unchanged at the $820/st FOB level for prompt tons.

Western Cornbelt:

The DAP market reportedly slipped to $710-$730/st FOB St. Louis in early February, with Iowa terminals reported at $720-$740/st FOB. Some said prices were likely to firm, however, with predictions that near-term offers would rebound to the $745-$750/st FOB level.

MAP was pegged at $735-$750/st FOB St. Louis and $755-$765/st FOB in the Iowa market, down roughly $10-$15/st from the prior week. Sources quoted the St. Paul market at $735-$750/st FOB for DAP and $755-$770/st FOB for MAP.

Southern Plains:

Sources reported a broad range of pricing for DAP. Pricing at Catoosa/Inola reportedly started the week as low as $710-$715/st FOB before firming to $730-$735/st FOB, with some speculating that $745-$750/st FOB is likely in the near term. The market FOB Houston was pegged at a solid $740/st FOB at midweek.

A similar path was reported for MAP, with the Catoosa/Inola market firming from a low of $750/st to a high of $760-$780/st FOB during the week, depending on supplier. The Houston MAP market was quoted at $770/st FOB.

South Central:

DAP terminal pricing in early February included $730/st FOB river terminals in Kentucky, $740/st FOB in Arkansas, and $745-$750/st FOB Memphis.

Southeast:

MAP remained at $780/st FOB Aurora, N.C., with reports of limited quantities of DAP also at the $780/st FOB level at Aurora. A DAP vessel is rumored to arrive at Wilmington at mid-month, with unconfirmed reports that the price may be in the $750-$760/st range.

Saudi Arabia:

Phosphate cargoes loading from Saudi Arabia were heard firming to the $890-$905/mt FOB range, up from $885-$905/mt FOB at last report.

Ma’aden on Feb. 1 said it has renewed a fertilizer supply agreement with Bangladesh Agricultural Development Corp. (BADC) to supply phosphate fertilizers for the 2022/23 year. No further details were provided on the volume of DAP to be supplied or when shipments would begin.

China:

Rumors circulated during the week that some MAP might be available for export by the end of March, one month before the export ban is lifted for all other products. Sources said it appears to the customs officials that China has enough MAP and NPKs on hand to let at least one cargo go. Others may follow.

Similar discussions are taking place for DAP, said traders. The domestic demand for DAP does not appear to have been as strong as earlier government estimates. The extra material, if allowed by customs officers, will most likely find a home in India.

Prices remain steady in the mid-$890s/mt FOB based on calculations related to the current Indian price from deals with other suppliers.

India:

Aggressive buying seems to have taken a break. Sources said there were few inquiries for DAP this week. Domestic producers appear to be ready to take a few plants down for routine maintenance turnarounds.

Brazil:

Holders of MAP remained anxious to sell their product. The movement dropped the lower end of the range to $820/mt CFR, while older deals left the upper end untouched at $920/mt CFR.

The Rondonopolis price experienced only mild fluctuations to settle at $950-$1,043/mt FOB ex-warehouse. Reportedly, sellers are anxious to move product out of their warehouses in anticipation of       more material arriving soon.

TSP

Market Watch, South Central, Triple Superphosphate, U.S. Gulf, Western Cornbelt

U.S. Gulf:

With minimal trading reported for the week, no changes were confirmed from the market’s last-reported $670/st FOB level. Players generally agreed that values looked to soften in the next round of business, citing ideas in a wide $640-$670/st FOB range.

Western Cornbelt:

TSP pricing was reported at $710-$725/st FOB for the last confirmed offers in the Western Cornbelt.

South Central:

The TSP market slipped to $705-$725/st FOB in the region, down $5-$15/st, with the low in Arkansas and the high at Memphis.

Phosphoric Acid

Eastern Cornbelt, India, Market Watch, Phosphoric Acid, Southern Plains, Western Cornbelt

Eastern Cornbelt:

The phos acid market was unchanged at $16.20/unit rail-DEL in Illinois and $16.35/unit rail-DEL in Ohio.

Western Cornbelt:

Phos acid prices remained at $16.10/unit in Iowa, Nebraska, and Missouri for February tons.

Southern Plains:

February pricing for phos acid remained at January levels of $16.10/unit rail-DEL in Kansas, Colorado, and Wyoming; $16.20/unit rail-DEL in Oklahoma, and Texas; and $16.35/unit rail-DEL in Louisiana.

India:

Fourth-quarter India phosphoric acid contracts were quoted at $1,330/mt P2O5 CFR, up $170/mt from $1,160/mt CFR in the prior quarter. Pricing was expected to press higher in the next round of contracting.

Ammonium Polyphosphate

Ammonium Polyphosphate, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, Southern Plains, Western Cornbelt

Eastern Cornbelt:

Sources continued to report no current pricing for 10-34-0 in the Eastern Cornbelt. One Illinois contact said he expects new offers for limited tons to become available in mid-February.

Western Cornbelt:

The 10-34-0 market was pegged at a nominal $810-$825/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, but sources reported few offers on the table in early February.

Southern Plains:

The 10-34-0 market was steady at $790-$795/st FOB for spring tons in the Southern Plains. The 11-37-0 market in Texas was quoted at a firm $840-$850/st FOB for the last offers.

Muriate of Potash

Brazil, Eastern Cornbelt, India, Market Watch, Potash, South Central, Southeast, Southern Plains, U.S. Gulf, Western Cornbelt

U.S. Gulf:

Most pegged the latest NOLA barge business at a firm $625/st FOB, down from the week-ago $640-$645/st FOB. Despite the drop, some players believed potash had room to move back up on the heels of the increases in urea and phosphates. Others disagreed, however, seeing less demand for the product.

Eastern Cornbelt:

The potash market was pegged in a broad range at $700-$720/st FOB Cincinnati, with the Ottawa market reported at the $705/st FOB level. Michigan sources continued to quote the Toledo market at $750-$760/st FOB in early February.

Western Cornbelt:

Potash pricing remained at $690-$710/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low reported at St. Louis.

Southern Plains:

Potash pricing was pegged at $710/st FOB Houston and $690-$710/st FOB Catoosa/Inola. The last postings from Intrepid FOB Carlsbad, N.M., in mid-December included $780/st FOB for 60 percent white granular and $800/st FOB for 62 percent white standard.

South Central:

The potash market was quoted at $705-$715/st FOB in the South Central region, depending on location, with the Memphis market reported at $710-$715/st FOB in early February.

Southeast:

Potash pricing was quoted at $720-$730/st FOB Wilmington, with reports of rail-DEL offers in the $738-$750/st range in the Southeast from Canadian suppliers.

India:

FACT called a tender on Jan. 31 for two 40,000 mt lots of standard potash for delivery to Tuticorin port. The first shipment is required to arrive between March 20-30 and the second between April 20-30. The tender closes on Feb. 14.

Offers into RCF’s tender for the supply of 170,000 mt of standard potash that closed on Jan. 28 (GM Jan. 21, p. 15) were reported north of $600/mt CFR. Offers are required to remain valid for 30 days, but details on the companies offering into the tender were not known by press time. No awards are yet reported.

Of the tender tonnage, 85,000 mt is requested for shipment in February and 35,000 mt in March, plus 50,000 mt at mutual option for March shipment.

Brazil:

The Brazil market for MOP tightened as buyers and sellers became more anxious about possible shortages related to sanctions against Belarus and disruptions related to the dispute between Russia and Ukraine. Sources put the price at 760-$805/mt CFR at the ports.

The same anxiety over the future of MOP tightened the inland market to $880-$918/mt FOB ex-warehouse.

Sulfur

ADNOC - Abu Dhabi, Brazil, Canada, China, Market Watch, Sulfur, Tampa, U.S. Gulf, West Coast

Tampa:

Genscape reported the shutdown of a 131,000 barrel/d fluidic catalytic cracking unit (FCC) at the Phillips 66 Bayway, N.J., refinery on Jan. 31. Despite increased heating and activity levels observed from the unit shortly following the shutdown, the FCC remained offline as of Feb. 2.

First-quarter Tampa molten contracts were valued at $282/lt CFR, rising $99/lt from the prior $183/lt CFR agreement.

Refinery rates moved lower for the week ending Jan. 28, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported, the sector’s fourth consecutive week of declining utilization.

Operable capacity stood at 86.7 percent during the period, a 1.0-point decrease from 87.7 percent posted one week earlier. The current rate topped the year-ago 82.3 percent, while trailing the five-year average of 86.9 percent.

Crude inputs were also down at an average 15.248 million barrels/d, the EIA said, falling 249,000 barrels/d from the prior week’s 15.497 million barrels/d rate.

U.S. Gulf:

The United Steelworkers union (USW) has extended contract talks with lead oil company negotiator Marathon Petroleum Corp. beyond a Feb. 1 strike deadline, Reuters reported, shifting to a rolling 24-hour deadline in the hope of reaching an updated employment contract.

The prior contract, covering approximately 30,000 USW workers, expired on Feb. 1. The USW reportedly rejected a proposal offered ahead of the deadline that included a nine percent pay raise, due over three years. The USW’s prior employment contract, negotiated in 2019, provided an 11 percent pay raise.

USW members went on strike in February 2015 after failing to reach an updated agreement. The nationwide strike lasted approximately six weeks, while workers at the Marathon Galveston Bay, Texas, refinery ended their work stoppage in July 2015.

Motiva restarted the 85,000 barrel/d VPS-2 crude distillation unit (CDU) at the company’s Port Arthur, Texas, refinery on Jan. 28, Genscape noted. The CDU and an associated vacuum distillation unit (VDU) were taken offline for maintenance on Jan. 10.

Citgo on Jan. 27 successfully restarted a 174,000 barrel/d CDU and an 85,000 barrel/d VDU at the Corpus Christi, Texas, refinery on Jan. 27, after the units were shut on Jan. 25. A 69,000 barrel/d fluidic catalytic cracking unit (FCC) at the facility has been on a planned turnaround since Jan. 17.

ExxonMobil Corp. restarted a 116,000 barrel/d FCC at the company’s Baton Rouge, La., plant on Feb. 1. The unit was taken offline for planned maintenance on Jan. 6.

Price ideas on the Gulf export sulfur market continued to be reported in the $290-$300/mt FOB range, unmoved from the prior report.

Brazil:

Sources quoted last-done Brazil spot at $355-$357/mt CFR, unchanged from the previous week.

Canada:

Genscape reported a sulfur recovery unit shutdown at the Irving Oil refinery in St. John, N.B., on Jan. 27. The shutdown was preceded by a bout of excess emissions. An activity ramp-up observed shortly after the unit went offline resulted in a successful restart on the evening of Jan. 28.

Last-done business at Vancouver remained at $280/mt FOB for the week. New offers heard closer to $300/mt FOB hinted at likely firming in the next round of business, sources said.

Alberta sulfur netbacks were flat at $167-$210/mt FOB, and included values netting back from sales of both molten and prilled material.

West Coast:

Valero on Jan. 28 restarted the 40,000 barrel/d catalytic reformer at the company’s Benicia, Calif., refinery, Genscape reported. The unit had been offline since Jan. 18.

Increased activity was observed from a 31,000 barrel/d catalytic reformer at the PBF Energy plant in Martinez, Calif., during the week, although the unit remained shy of normal operating levels. Decreased activity had been observed from the facility’s 158,000 barrel/d crude section since Jan. 8.

Solid sulfur indications on material loading from the West Coast held steady at $280/mt FOB, sources said. Contracts for molten sulfur were noted in the $230-$245/lt FOB range for Q1, above the $160-$170/lt FOB price for fourth-quarter 2021.

China:

An ongoing tax crackdown focused on China’s independent teapot refineries could have a chilling effect on domestic Chinese refinery utilization, Platts reported,reducing onshore sulfur supply and setting the stage for a potential demand uptick for imported product.

Two facilities located in the northern Liaoning province, bordering North Korea, were already in violation of China’s strict tax policies governing the sale of oil products, according to a Jan. 19 announcement from China’s State Taxation Administration (STA). An unapproved capacity expansion completed in April 2021 was among the offenses detailed against the companies.

More independent refineries were expected to come under the STA’s microscope in the months ahead, including units located in Shandong province, home to approximately 50 percent of China’s teapot refiners.

Sources expected a largely quiet China sulfur market due to the country’s Feb. 1 Lunar New Year holiday. Last-done continued to be reported at $335/mt CFR, with firmer values indicated for the next round of business.

ADNOC:

Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. offers for February loading were reported firming to $320/mt FOB Ruwais, up $20/mt FOB from $300/mt FOB in January.