All posts by mickeybarb@charter.net

European Nitrogen Cuts Continue; Gas Prices “Chokingly High,” Says Fertilizer Europe

Europe, Featured, News

More European nitrogen producers have been cutting production or have indicated that it is a major consideration. German ammonia producer SKW Stickstoffwerke Piesteritz GmbH on Oct. 5 said it will cut production by 20 percent to offset rising gas prices, according to a Bloomberg report. “It doesn’t make sense to make ammonia at these price levels,” said CEO Petr Cingr. “A complete production stop looms if the government doesn’t act.”

Swiss crop trader Ameropa AG’s Azomures SA, the largest fertilizer maker in Romania, has cut production in half because of soaring natural gas prices and is calling for government measures to avoid a deepening of the crisis.

“The fertilizer industry is going through a very difficult period because of the very high energy prices, especially for methane,” Azomures told Bloomberg.

Azomures said it was seeking government support through an existing program set up to help large industrial consumers, including in the chemical sector, through aid funded from state carbon-emission permit revenue.

Increased supplies of liquefied natural gas from the U.S., Middle East, or Africa will be useful, Azomures said, as well as full usage of the Bratstvo, or Brotherhood, pipeline through Ukraine and the opening of the contentious Nord Stream 2 link between Russia and Germany.

Nitrogenmuvek Zrt., the largest fertilizer manufacturer in Hungary, continues to operate, although the company said it may have to shut down as well.

Poland’s Azoty indicated that while it will continue to operate its plants, it will prioritize the Polish market and its local farmers.

Several other major producers have already cut production, including CF Industries Holding Inc., Yara International ASA, Borealis AG, Achema, BASF, and Odesky Pryportovyi Zavod (GM Oct. 1, p. 1; Sept. 24, p. 1).

Brussels-based Fertilizers Europe called on the European Commission and E.U. Member States authorities “to take urgent corrective actions” on the current gas prices in Europe, as well as to address the challenges on the European energy market.

The organization that represents the majority of Europe’s major fertilizer producers warned this week that “the chokingly high” gas prices in Europe are making the production of ammonia and fertilizers unprofitable.

It noted several fertilizer producers across Europe have either announced short-term full closures or temporary curtailment of ammonia and fertilizers production.

“If prolonged, this situation will lead to lower European fertilizer production and a tightened market situation, which could affect next year’s agricultural yield,” said Fertilizers Europe.

It also said the reduced downstream value chains are also likely to cause shortage of CO2 in the food chain, ammonia water, and AdBlue for trucks.

A return to a pre-crisis situation in the European gas market is therefore “a matter of urgency,” it said.

Fertilizers Europe believes the current situation also endangers the industry’s ability to finance future investments in the production of green and blue ammonia, not just for the fertilizer industry, but for ammonia as an energy carrier for society in general.

The latest official E.U. figures showed the price of natural gas in Europe rose 441.3 percent in the past year.

European natural gas and power actually fell on Thursday, Oct. 7 after swinging wildly the day before, as traders weighed fuel-shortage fears against signals from Russia it may increase supplies to the continent.

Energy-price volatility has soared in recent days, fanning inflation concerns and threatening to cripple major industries. President Vladimir Putin’s suggestion on Wednesday, Oct. 6, that Russia could help stabilize global markets cooled a rally that saw Dutch and U.K. gas futures surge 60 percent in just two days.

Putin said Russia could potentially ship record volumes of gas to Europe this year, without specifying when the ramp-up may start. With deliveries in 2021 so far failing to keep up with recovering demand, the region’s stockpiles are at their lowest seasonal level in over a decade just as the weather turns colder.

Putin’s comments were a deliberate attempt to calm an increasingly unstable market, according to people familiar with the country’s energy policy. Russian exporter Gazprom PJSC said it aims to raise supply whenever possible, but for now it is continuing its storage-injection campaign at home, which it plans to finish by Nov. 1.

Russia has the capacity to raise gas exports by around 15 percent of peak winter supply to Europe, the head of the International Energy Agency Fatih Birol told the Financial Times.

“The market will soon be shouting: ‘show me the gas’ to Russia,” said Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank A/S. “The only thing I think we are sure of in the short term is plenty of drama and volatility.”

Meanwhile, in Southern Europe, Spain and Portugal are bracing for the likely shutdown of a natural gas pipeline that transports from Algeria to Morocco, Spain, and Portugal at the end of October. Another pipeline that bypasses Morocco will continue to transport, potentially at a higher rate. This disruption is due to the ongoing Algeria-Moroccan feud.

In the meantime, the power issue is not just in Europe, as China continues to cut non-essential power use and is revving up previously idled coal-fired generators. And as previously reported, the country has indicated plans to assure that the domestic needs for fertilizer are met over exports, with significant restrictions on phosphates in particular.

Brazil’s Bolsonaro Eyes New Plant, Sees Fertilizer Shortage

Brazil, News, News Briefs

Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro said on Oct. 7 his government plans to develop a project aimed at increasing the country’s production of fertilizer and making it less reliant on imports, according to a Reuters report. More details are expected next month.

Earlier on Oct. 7, he warned of a fertilizer shortage due to the energy crisis in China, according to Bloomberg. “We’re going to have a shortage issue next year,” he said, adding that China has been producing less fertilizer due to the energy crisis, which is making the product more expensive.

Ammonia

Ammonia, Black Sea, Brazil, Eastern Cornbelt, India, Market Watch, Middle East, North Africa, Northwestern Europe, South Central, Southeast Asia, Southern Plains, Tampa, U.S. Exports, U.S. Gulf, U.S. Imports, Western Cornbelt

U.S. Gulf/Tampa:

The October ammonia price stands at $665/mt CFR, up $50/mt from September. With more outages being reported in Europe and inland U.S. prices ratcheting up, Tampa prices will be under pressure to move up again in November.

U.S. Imports:

Imports of ammonia were up 11.7 percent for August, according to data released by the DOC, to 229,424 st from the year-ago 205,333 st. July-August imports were up 20.9 percent, to 424,311 st from the year-ago 351,016 st.

U.S. Exports:

Ammonia exports for August were down 81.8 percent, to 23,282 st from the year-ago 127,588 st. July-August exports were down 54.2 percent, to 91,571 st from 199,978 st during the same period last year.

Eastern Cornbelt:

Ammonia prices continued to ratchet higher in the Eastern Cornbelt. Nutrien moved its Lima, Ohio, ammonia price to $890/st FOB during the week, up from $735/st FOB the week before. After pulling prices the previous week, both Koch and CF reportedly reposted on Oct. 7 at $900/st FOB in Illinois.

Sources expect a heavy fall application pace for ammonia. “These guys will put on every pound of ammonia they can this fall because they got all their expected needs covered $250/st ago,” commented one source. “The long-term weather forecast looks good all the way through Thanksgiving.”

Western Cornbelt:

After offers were pulled late the previous week, Koch announced a new round of ammonia prices on Oct. 7 that included $885/st FOB Beatrice, Neb.; $890/st FOB Greenwood, Neb., and Sergeant Bluff, Iowa; $900/st FOB Iowa terminals at Garner, Fort Dodge, and Washington; and $910/st FOB Marshalltown, Iowa. Those levels were up roughly $100/st from the company’s previous postings on Sept. 30.

Southern Plains:

Ammonia prices were up significantly in the Southern Plains. Sources quoted pricing at $700-$735/st FOB regional production points early in the week, up from $650-$700/st FOB the week before. By midweek, however, sources reported new offers at Enid, Okla., at the $840-$850/st FOB level.

The truck market FOB Beaumont, Texas, was quoted firmly at the $650/st FOB level at midweek.

South Central:

The ammonia market remained at $620-$650/st FOB Gulf Coast terminals for truck offers in early October. Sources continued to report no current offers on the table at El Dorado, Ark., Cherokee, Ala., or Midway, Tenn.

Black Sea:

Small ammonia cargoes are still moving out of the area. The limited tonnage comes from plant closures in Ukraine because of rising natural gas prices and contracted Russian tons.

Sources reported a deal this week that moves the Yuzhnyy price to $710/mt FOB. Higher prices are likely for the limited tons that might still be available.

Middle East:

The lack of any spot deals keeps the Middle East ammonia price in the $620s/mt FOB. Sources said having a gap of nearly $100/mt between the Arab Gulf and Yuzhnyy is unusual, but that is the current situation.

Arab Gulf producers are fulfilling the demands of their Southeast Asian buyers, leaving nothing for the spot market. Sources said the movement of ammonia to the east is also leaving buyers west of Suez in a bind to find product from other sources. The lack of spot tons means Indian buyers that do not have long-term contracts are also searching for material, and often leaving empty handed.

Sources reported that the Ma’aden plant appears to be up and running, but it does not seem to be running at levels plant managers had hoped for. Whatever tons are being produced are being snapped up to use either for internal needs or to cover contracts waiting to be filled.

India:

Major ammonia buyers are having their contracts fulfilled, but the tightness of the global market means there are no extra tons for any spot deals. Sources also reported that in some cases producers are trying to invoke the portion of their contracts that allows them to ship 10 percent fewer tons with each cargo.

Indian DAP producers are facing an especially bad situation. As the contracts for ammonia come up for renegotiation, the buyers are seeing offers at ever-higher levels. Along with other inputs rising in price, the DAP producers are finding their production costs are exceeding the maximum retail price allowed in India.

If the producers decide they cannot turn out more DAP because of the high costs, the government will have to import the phosphate fertilizer. With China essentially closed, buyers will have to turn to other producers such as OCP/Morocco. However, sources said there does not seem to be an uptick in demand for ammonia from OCP to cover any new finished product purchases by India.

Northwest Europe:

Sources said the shutdown or reduced production of ammonia facilities across Europe due to high natural gas prices has pushed the Northwest Europe market to $800-$810/mt C&F.

Sources said there is still room for prices to move up, given the steady demand and higher natural gas prices. Buyers all seem nervous that a price correction will take a long time to reach, and when it does, the crash could hurt as many as the current run-up in pricing.

Sources reported a spot deal out of the Baltics at $720/mt FOB, well above the set price for October at $658/mt FOB. One trader said the move was not surprising, and the $720/mt FOB price will be used by producers when talks for November pricing come up.

North Africa:

Sources said China’s move to limit or block any DAP or MAP exports has led the Moroccans to step up production and ammonia demand. Reportedly, OCP has been slowly increasing its production to near capacity.

If the Moroccan phosphate giant wanted to dramatically increase production, sources said it would need to make a similar step-up in ammonia demand. So far, no such call for more product has happened. Sources said, however, there may soon be a call for more ammonia from outside the region as a political dispute between Algeria and Morocco spills over to commercial deals.

Reportedly, Algeria is ready to cut off natural gas to Morocco, which would also affect Spain and Portugal. In addition, ammonia traders said Algeria has already begun sending its ammonia to buyers other than OCP.

One beneficiary seems to be Tunisia, which is taking as much ammonia as it can find to help in its DAP production, which has reportedly stepped up.

Southeast Asia:

So far, demand in Southeast Asia is being met with material from the Arab Gulf. Sources said, however, that as the contracts come up for renewal, the buyers should expect to experience sticker shock.

Locally, Indonesian and Malaysian producers are turning out what they can as best they can, said sources. The PAU facility in Indonesia is showing signs of trouble in its re-starting efforts. Sources said the reason for the problems are not clear.

Brazil:

Ammonia imports for the first three quarters of the year were reported at 445,000 mt by Trade Data Monitor, representing a 41 percent increase from the same period in 2020.September imports were pegged at only 9,000 mt, down 81 percent from September 2020 imports of 51,000 mt.

Third-quarter imports this year were reported at 123,000 mt, down just slightly from the 126,000 mt reported for the same period in 2020.

Urea

Africa, Black Sea, Brazil, China, Eastern Cornbelt, India, Indonesia, Market Watch, Middle East, South Central, Southeast, Southern Plains, U.S. Gulf, U.S. Imports, Urea, Western Cornbelt

U.S. Gulf:

NOLA granular urea prices continued to skyrocket this week, with October trades quoted in the $665-$700/st FOB range, up from the week-ago $599-$650/st FOB. November trades were reported at $655-$720/st.

While there were reports of $690-$710/st FOB for December-January, other trades were reported to be stair-stepping up at $700/st FOB January, $720/st FOB February, and $730/st FOB March.

U.S. Imports:

Urea imports for July-August were up 120.7 percent, to 722,177 st from 327,260 st during the same period last year. August urea imports firmed 75.3 percent, to 253,651 st from the year-ago 144,698 st.

Imports from Qatar totaled 163,869 st for the fertilizer year-to-date, up 56.9 percent from last year’s 104,443 st, followed by 144,136 st from Russia, a 93.4 percent improvement on last year’s 74,515 st total. Saudi Arabia’s 92,815 st topped Canada’s 90,362 st for third place.

U.S. Exports:

Urea exports softened 87.5 percent in July-August, to 31,774 st from the year-ago 255,049 st. Urea exports totaled 22,668 st for August, down 81.6 percent from 123,234 st in August 2020.

Eastern Cornbelt:

Urea prices jumped to $720-$750/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, depending on location, up $80-$90/st from the previous week. The market FOB Cincinnati, Ohio, was quoted at $720-$730/st FOB earlier in the week, with reports of new offers there climbing to $740/st FOB or higher as the week progressed.

Western Cornbelt:

Urea prices were “changing by the hour” during the week, according to one industry contact. Prices ranged from $720-$750/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, up a full $80-$100/st from the prior week, with the low reported at St. Louis, Mo., and the high at Port Neal, Iowa. The market FOB St. Paul, Minn., firmed to $750-$770/st FOB, up from $640-$690/st FOB the previous week.

Southern Plains:

Urea prices in the Southern Plains moved up dramatically during the week. Sources quoted the Houston, Texas, market at $715/st FOB at midweek, up from the $660/st level late the previous week. New urea offers FOB Catoosa/Inola, Okla., reportedly climbed to $745-$760/st FOB as the week progressed.

South Central:

The urea market jumped to $700-$745/st FOB terminals in the South Central region, with the lower end confirmed at Memphis, Tenn., early in the week, and the high out of Arkansas terminals at midweek. Sources speculated that some locations could firm to $775/st FOB by the end of the week.

Southeast:

Urea pricing FOB Wilmington, N.C., jumped from $650/st early in the week up to $700/st FOB by midweek, with the market FOB Savannah, Ga., pegged at a solid $680/st FOB at midweek. In the Northeast, the Fairless Hills, Pa., urea price was reported early in the week at $730/st FOB for October-November.

India:

The awards issued in the RCF tender that closed on Oct. 1 will leave India still about 2.2 million mt behind imports of 2020 during the same period. Awards were issued to nine companies for a total of 732,000 mt to be delivered to only East Coast ports.

Within hours of the closing of the tender, RCF released the offered prices. The company quickly counterbid to companies offering tons to the East Coast, ignoring the $714/mt CFR low price for the West Coast submitted by Dreymoor. The counterbid to the Arab Gulf producers was reported at $618.50/mt FOB against the $690-$710/mt FOB offers submitted.

The Arab producers quickly rejected the counterbid. By close of business on Oct. Oct. 4, RCF had acceptances from the nine trading houses.

All East Coast at $665.50/mt CFR
Awarded Company Quantity (mt)
Ameropa 160,000
Midgulf 100,000
Samsung 95,000
Swiss Singapore 90,000
Amber 65,000
Koch 65,000
Dreymoor 62,000
Transglobe 50,000
Medallion 45,000
Total 732,000

At this point last year, India had secured 6.8 million mt in tender purchases. So far this year, tenders have only yielded 4.6 million mt. The shortage in product is being felt in areas around the country, according to local media reports. International traders have noted that with the exception of the July 22 tender that pulled in 1.2 million mt, tender purchases have been behind anticipated needs.

International traders generally agree that another tender will have to be called soon. They also agree that prices will be even higher.

The West Coast low price of $714/mt CFR translated to $690-$695/mt FOB to the Arab Gulf. Since the closing of the tender, new sales to Brazil and the U.S. indicate prices from the Arab Gulf are now at $700-$710/mt FOB.

China is expected to place limitations on exports of urea beginning Nov. 1, if not banning exports outright. Any reduction in the global market of available Chinese tons will move the price up from the other producers. Sources are now speculating the Arab Gulf could hit $800/mt FOB. Egyptian prices are already done at $820/mt FOB for December shipment, with rumors circulating of $830-$850/mt FOB for the next round.

China:

The price for prilled and granular urea in China is now pegged at $620-$625/mt FOB, based on the awarded price in the RCF/India tender. The Indian buyer issued awards for 732,000 mt. However, sources could only identify 500,000 mt available between now and the shipping deadline of Nov. 11 in China.

Actually, sources said 500,000 mt was available at the ports now. Additional tons could be sent from producers to the ports in time to meet the shipping deadline if they are allowed to do so.

Rumors were circulating this week that China was going to announce a ban on urea exports effective Nov. 1. All indications were that the 500,000 mt already committed to offshore buyers would not be affected. However, any new tons not yet at the ports by Nov. 1 might be covered by the rumored edict.

Sources reminded each other that nothing is set until the announcement is made, however. Some argued that the Chinese government may issue restrictions rather than an outright ban on exports. Under the more lenient plan, tons purchased from a producer but still enroute to the ports may be exempted.

Production of urea has been scaled back because of a lack of available energy to run the plants, and in response to citations for environmental violations.

A shortage of coal to run power plants and factories has caused widespread rolling blackouts and brownouts throughout the country. At the same time, the national government has ordered some power plants and factories to close because of excessive air pollution violations.

The government is especially concerned about air quality, because it will be hosting the Winter Olympics in February 2022. In the past, the effort to heat homes and keep factories running has led to some of the most polluted skies in Chinese cities during the winter. The government is said to be concerned that the skies should look pristine for the Olympics.

Middle East:

The estimated netback from the RCF tender’s lowest offer for the West Coast was $690-$695/mt FOB. This price would have reflected a $70/mt jump in pricing from the last spot deal from the area.

The only counterbid RCF made that affected the Arab Gulf came against the $690-$710/mt FOB offers from two producers. The bid of $618.50/mt FOB was quickly rejected.

By the middle of the week, the price offered in the tender began to look low. Sources said deals into Brazil and the U.S. moved the netback to the Arab Gulf to $700-$710/mt FOB. Industry watchers said they expect to see higher prices going forward. They point to the ever-rising price in Egypt, which hit $820/mt FOB for December loading, along with rumors that $830/mt FOB will be done by the end of the week.

At the same time, sources are sure India will have to come out with another tender soon. Unfortunately for Indian buyers, by Nov. 1 Chinese exports of urea are expected to be either restricted or banned well through the first half of 2022.

Throughout the week, prices moved up for December loadings. By the end of the week, sources reported a confirmed deal of $820/mt FOB, with rumors of $830/mt FOB on the table as Green Markets goes to press.

The price of November material is pegged at $735-$752/mt FOB. The rapid rise between November and December came as rumors spread concerning China’s pending restrictions on urea exports. At the same time, demand in Europe stepped up as more factories there and in Ukraine closed due to the high cost of natural gas.

Indonesia:

Sources reported no change in pricing since the selling tender last month at $502/mt FOB. Liven took at least 45,000 mt in that deal. There are reports that Liven and possibly a few other traders picked up some more cargoes at the tender price.

A new auction is expected later this month or early November for December shipments. Sources said they expect to see a healthy increase in pricing from the producers.

Black Sea:

Sources said urea from Yuzhnyy is nonexistent because of the plant closures due to high natural gas prices.

Ethiopia:

The annual EABC granular urea tender will close on Oct. 25. Sources said the tender will call for 804,000 mt to be delivered over five to six months. Delivery is usually in three cargoes of 50,000 mt each month until the tender is fulfilled.

From December 2020 through July 2021, Ethiopia imported 481,000 mt, according to Trade Data Monitor.

Brazil:

Sources put the urea price at Paranagua at $745-$780/mt CFR for completed business. However, sources were reporting new offers at $800/mt CFR as the week closed, with full confidence that a buyer will agree.

Rondonopolis showed a massive leap in pricing. Sources put the market at $850-$952/mt FOB e-warehouse, up dramatically from last week’s price of $660/mt FOB.

The strengthening market inland and at the ports was attributed to the rumors of China limiting or banning urea exports soon, higher natural gas prices cutting off production in Ukraine and Western Europe, and runaway prices in Egypt and India.

Inland distributors are now managing sales on a case-by-case basis, rather than working off pricing sheets. At the same time, buyers are said to be getting nervous that product they want may not be available in the near future.

Imports for January-September 2021 were reported at 5.4 million mt by Trade Data Monitor, representing a 10 percent increase from the 4.9 million mt imported during the same period last year.

Third-quarter imports were pegged at 1.9 million mt this year, down 8.4 percent from the 2.1 million mt bought in 2020. September 2021 imports of 706,000 mt were down 21.4 percent from the 898,000 mt imported in September 2020.

UAN

Eastern Cornbelt, France, Market Watch, South Central, Southeast, Southern Plains, U.S. Gulf, U.S. Imports, UAN, Western Cornbelt

U.S. Gulf:

The most recent business continued to be called $425-$435/st ($13.28-$13.59/unit) FOB, with sources generally believing a lot of business was done within that range. However, price ideas for the next round of business were expected to be higher, with reports of $485-$500/st or higher being tossed around.

U.S. Imports:

UAN imports for August were down 1.3 percent, to 200,452 st from the prior-year 203,071 st. Imports totaled 415,495 st in the July-August period, however, a 1.6 percent year-over-year increase from 408,864 st.

Trinidad and Tobago topped July-August imports with 176,758 st, up 5.1 percent from last year’s 168,200 st. Russia trailed with 148,486 st, falling 30.2 percent from the prior-year 212,822 st. Canada’s year-to-date total stood at 62,654 st, up 262.7 percent from the year-ago 17,273 st.

U.S. Exports:

UAN exports totaled 78,352 st in August, off 29.2 percent from the year-ago 110,619 st. July-August exports were down 17.7 percent, to 160,173 st from the year-ago 194,710 st.

Eastern Cornbelt:

Limited UAN-32 offers were pegged in the $480-$500/st ($15.00-$15.63/unit) FOB range in the region, depending on location, up from $450-$475/st the week before. The low end of the regional market was pegged at $415/st ($14.82/unit) FOB Cincinnati for UAN-28 offers earlier in the week, with reports that UAN-32 pricing at Cincinnati had inched up to $495-$500/st ($15.47-$15.63/unit) FOB by Oct. 7.

Western Cornbelt:

Limited UAN-32 pricing in the Western Cornbelt reportedly ranged from $475-$500/st ($14.84-$15.63/unit) FOB, depending on location and time of the week. “It’s a wild ride we are on right now; every day it seems to move higher,” said one regional contact.

Southern Plains:

The UAN-32 market was pegged at $465-$475/st ($14.53-$14.84/unit) FOB Oklahoma production points as the week began, but sources said the lower end was no longer on the table by midweek. Prompt pricing FOB Coffeyville, Kan., had reportedly firmed to $495-$500/st ($15.47-$15.63/unit) FOB late in the week.

UAN-32 pricing out of Houston and Gulf Coast terminals in Texas was quoted at the $480-$485/st ($15.00-$15.16/unit) FOB level for limited tons late in the week, with speculation that new offers could rise to as high as $535/st FOB for the next round.

South Central:

The last UAN-32 offers were pegged at $465-$475/st ($14.53-$14.84/unit) FOB South Central terminals, but most prices were reportedly pulled late the previous week.

Southeast:

UAN pricing in the Southeast was ratcheting up quickly. Sources quoted the UAN-30 market at $421/st ($14.03/unit) FOB Wilmington late the previous week, but new offers for UAN-32 had reportedly firmed to $505/st ($15.78/unit) FOB Wilmington or Norfolk, Va., by midweek. UAN-32 pricing out of inland Georgia terminals was pegged at the $446.50/st ($13.95/unit) FOB level for the last offers.

In the Northeast, UAN-32 offers FOB Fairless Hills were reported at the $495/st ($15.47/unit) level for October-November, while new pricing FOB Baltimore, Md., was expected to rise to $520/st ($16.25/unit) by the end of the week.

France:

UAN availability across Europe remained tight, with prices continuing to rise amid soaring gas costs. In France, UAN-30 was reported to be trading north of €575/mt FCA Rouen as the week drew to a close.

Ammonium Nitrate

Ammonium Nitrate, Eastern Europe, France, Market Watch, South Central, Southeast, Southern Plains, U.S. Exports, U.S. Imports, Western Cornbelt

U.S. Imports:

Imports of ammonium nitrate were up 87.3 percent in August, to 17,943 st from 9,582 st in August 2020. July-August totals jumped 147.5 percent, to 52,121 st from the year-ago 21,063 st.

U.S. Exports:

Ammonium nitrate exports were down 30.8 percent for the July-August period, to 85,074 st from the year-ago 122,906 st. August exports totaled 46,504 st, falling 31.1 percent year-over-year from 67,530 st.

Western Cornbelt:

The last ammonium nitrate offers were pegged at $440-$450/st FOB in Missouri and $455/st rail-DEL in the Midwest.

Southern Plains:

The ammonium nitrate market was reported at the $435/st level FOB Catoosa/Inola in early October.

South Central:

The last ammonium nitrate business was reported at $400/st FOB Yazoo City, Miss., and $410/st FOB Shreveport, La., but no current offers were on the table in early October.

Southeast:

The Tampa ammonium nitrate market remained at the $400/st FOB level for the last reported business, but speculation about where the next offers will land ranged from $500-$800/st as the week progressed.

France:

Yara issued a new list price on Oct. 4 for November deliveries of ammonium nitrate 33.5 (YaraBelaExtran33.5) in France. The new price is set at €590/mt bulk CPT, up €75/mt from Yara’s Sept. 27 price of €515/mt, which was pulled a couple days after its release (GM Oct. 1, p. 9).

Romania:

The country’s sole fertilizer producer, Azomures, is currently operating at just 50 percent of capacity at its Târgu Mureș production site, amid costly and scarce natural gas supplies, according to a report by Romania Insider, citing Profit.ro, which in turn cited Azomures executives.

According to Profit.ro, the price of gas contracts on the Romanian Commodity Exchange with delivery in November and the first quarter of 2022 has soared to RON400 (approximately $93 at current exchange rates ) per MWh, a record level for the Romanian market.

Ammonium Sulfate

Ammonium Sulfate, Brazil, China, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, South Central, Southeast, Southern Plains, U.S. Exports, U.S. Gulf, U.S. Imports, Western Cornbelt

U.S. Gulf:

The market was called $400-$410/st FOB, up from the week-ago $385/st FOB. Sources said $400/st was quickly done as the week began, and that anyone wanting to buy would have to pay posted numbers at this point. Interoceanic (IOC) was referenced at $410/st FOB at NOLA.

U.S. Imports:

August ammonium sulfate imports totaled 95,816 st, off 6.0 percent from the year-ago 101,949 st. July-August volumes were up 7.5 percent, however, to 137,947 st from the year-ago 128,372 st.

Canada topped the July-August fertilizer year-to-date with 70,573 st, rising 8.8 percent from the prior-year 64,838 st. Material loading from Belgium totaled 30,527 st, a 0.5 percent increase from 30,385 st for the same period last year, while South Korean tons were noted at 22,046 st for the period, a contrast from zero tons sent during last year’s July-August window.

U.S. Exports:

Ammonium sulfate exports for the July-August period were up 56.0 percent, to 120,947 st from 77,508 st. Exports totaled 66,031 st for August, a 110.2 percent rise from 31,420 st in the prior year.

Eastern Cornbelt:

Sources quoted the ammonium sulfate market at $415-$455/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, up another $25-$30/st from last report, with the latest reference price from IOC reported at $440/st FOB Ohio and Illinois River terminals.

Western Cornbelt:

The ammonium sulfate market edged up to $435-$445/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low reported at St. Louis and the high at Caruthersville, Mo. One Iowa contact reported that last sales firmly at the $440/st FOB level before prices were pulled at midweek.

Southern Plains:

The granular ammonium sulfate market was quoted at a firm $395/st FOB Freeport, Texas, at midweek. No current offers were confirmed at Catoosa/Inola, while new ammonium sulfate prices from IOC on Oct. 1 included $400/st FOB Houston and $460/st rail-DEL in the Southern Plains.

South Central:

Ammonium sulfate prices ranged broadly in the region, from $380-$385/st FOB Memphis up to $445/st FOB Little Rock, Ark. New postings from IOC on Oct. 1 included $435/st FOB Delta terminals.

Southeast:

The last postings for ammonium sulfate from AdvanSix FOB Hopewell, Va., included the Sept. 20 list prices of $335/st for granular, $315/st for mid-grade, and $295/st for standard, but sources said those prices were withdrawn nearly two weeks ago.

Ammonium sulfate pricing in Florida was pegged at $325/st FOB or DEL for standard and $375/st FOB or DEL for granular, depending on supplier. IOC’s granular ammonium sulfate posting FOB Tampa firmed on Oct. 1 to $455/st.

China:

The price held even at $200-$205/mt FOB for caprolactam grade ammonium sulfate, but sources said pressure is building that could move the price up to $300/mt soon.

Plant closures because of energy cutbacks and environmental fines are cutting into the amsul supply. And while domestic supply is dwindling, sources said demand in Southeast Asia is remaining strong and Brazilian demand is stepping up.

Brazil:

Sources said ammonium sulfate was shunted to the back as the main focus in Paranagua was on urea and MAP, leaving the price at $320-$345/mt CFR. At least one seller, however, sensing the rising prices in urea, began quoting $400/mt CFR for product.

The Rondonopolis price is now pegged at $500/mt FOB ex-warehouse, up from the $400/mt FOB reported last week. Sources said the move on amsul came as prices for urea skyrocketed. Blenders often look to ammonium sulfate as a substitute for urea for the nitrogen content in their products.

Ammonium sulfate imports for the January-September 2021 period were reported at 2.5 million mt by Trade Data Monitor, representing a 45 percent increase from the 1.7 million mt imported during the same period in 2020.

Third-quarter 2021 imports showed an even more dramatic rise at 831,000 mt, up 79 percent from the 464,000 mt imported during the third quarter 2020.September 2021 imports were also higher, firming to 330,000 mt against the 212,000 mt imported in September 2020.

DAP/MAP

Brazil, Central Florida, China, DAP/MAP, Eastern Cornbelt, India, Market Watch, Saudi Arabia, South Central, Southeast, Southern Plains, U.S. Exports, U.S. Gulf, U.S. Imports, Western Cornbelt

Central Florida:

Central Florida DAP truck postings firmed to $665/st FOB for the week, a $10/st increase from the prior week’s $655/st FOB. MAP trucks moved up to $695/st FOB from the week-ago $685/st FOB. Truck-loaded MAP at North Florida continued at $720/st FOB for the period.

U.S. Gulf:

TheNOLA barge phosphate markets pressed higher for the week.

Imported DAP barges loading in October were reported changing hands up to $690/st FOB, with $695/st FOB offers reported on Oct. 7 expected to add additional upside pressure in the next round of business. Domestic tons were quoted trading at $660/st FOB, firming $10/st from the prior week’s $650/st FOB.

MAP barges loading in a 30-day window from NOLA were generally reported at a $765/st FOB low for the week, even with the week-ago high, while sources reported values as high as $785/st FOB. New offers were heard at $790/st FOB on Oct. 7. MAP barges slated to load further out in the fourth quarter were quoted trading at $690/st FOB.

Ongoing supply constraints stemming from Hurricane Ida were cited as a primary driver for the firming market, while thinning international availability prompted some to voice expectations of increased competition for imported tons.

The nearby DAP market was quoted at $660-$690/st FOB for the period, firming from $650-$675/st FOB at last report. Thirty-day MAP barges were typically quoted at $765-$785/st FOB, up from $745-$765/st FOB in the prior week.

U.S. Imports:

August DAP imports were up 2,687.5 percent, to 226,799 st from 8,136 st in the prior year. July-August totals stood at 418,201 st, up 1,071.4 percent from the year-ago 35,701 st.

Australia claimed the market’s top import spot in July-August with 140,643 st, followed by 95,711 st from Jordan. Material loading from Saudi Arabia totaled 69,113 st. No tons from Australia, Jordan, or Saudi Arabia tons were noted coming to the U.S. in July-August 2020.

July-August MAP/Other imports were noted at 251,236 st, rising 362.2 percent from the year-ago 54,359 st. August imports were noted at 107,013 st, up 500.6 percent from the prior-year 17,817 st.

Tunisia led fertilizer year-to-date imports with 80,999 st, followed by 63,882 st from Saudi Arabia. Importers received 50,368 st from Jordan. Like the DAP market, importers received zero MAP/Other tons from the market’s three largest sources in the year-ago period.

U.S. Exports:

DAP exported from the U.S. in August dropped 28.1 percent, to 34,155 st from the prior-year 47,523 st. Exports totaled 71,540 st for July-August, a 47.8 percent decrease from the year-ago 137,052 st.

MAP/Other exports were off 1.4 percent in August, to 193,390 st from the prior-year 196,208 st. July-August exports slid 1.6 percent, to 428,057 st from 434,883 st last year.

With no new spot business reported on the Gulf phosphate export markets, DAP pricing continued at the previously reported $660/mt FOB level, with MAP holding at $685/mt FOB. Firming international pricing prompted firming expectations for the next round of business.

Eastern Cornbelt:

DAP prices firmed to $725-$750/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, up $13-$30/st from last report, with the high confirmed at Ottawa, Ill.

MAP had reportedly increased to $790-$810/st FOB in the region, up $20-$30/st from the prior week, with the high again reported at Ottawa. The Cincinnati market was pegged at $725-$740/st FOB for DAP and $790-$800/st FOB for MAP in early October.

Western Cornbelt:

DAP pricing firmed to $730-$750/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, up $25-$45/st from the previous week, with the low confirmed at St. Louis. The MAP market firmed to $800-$810/st FOB in the region, with the low again reported at St. Louis and the high in Iowa.

Southern Plains:

The DAP market climbed to $715-$745/st FOB in the Southern Plains, up another $20-$25/st from last report. The low was reported at Houston early in the week, but sources said the price there firmed to $735/st as the week progressed. The Catoosa/Inola DAP market was pegged solidly at $730-$745/st FOB at midweek.

MAP surged to $800-$825/st FOB in the region, with the low confirmed at Houston and the high at Catoosa/Inola.

South Central:

DAP pricing jumped to a broad range at $700-$750/st FOB in the South Central region, up $15-$25/st from last report, with the low confirmed at Memphis and the high in Arkansas.

Southeast:

Sources reported limited DAP offers at $730-$740/st FOB Wilmington during the week, with another increase expected later in the week. The last MAP price FOB Aurora, N.C., was reported at the $720/st FOB level, with no DAP available at that location.

Saudi Arabia:

Phosphates loading from Saudi Arabia were quoted at $640-$660/mt FOB, lifting from the week-ago $635-$650/mt FOB range.

China:

Sources said the limitations on DAP and MAP exports have essentially shut down the Chinese phosphate export market. Sources said the government is expected to expand on its previous order to limit exports by Nov. 1.

India:

Sources reported a sale of DAP from Ma’aden in Saudi Arabia to India at $680/mt CFR. The price represents another incremental increase in the price of DAP into India.

A tender for 100,000 mt of DAP called by NFL will close on Oct. 9. According to the tender announcement, the prices will be released on Oct. 11. The tender calls for two cargoes of 50,000 mt each, with one to be unloaded at an East Coast port and the other at a West Coast port.

Sources said they were unsure if anyone will participate in the tender, given the limited availability of material available in the area. One trader said there might be some participation, but he expects NFL to scrap the tender and use the pricing ideas presented as the basis for their contract talks with suppliers.

Sources said India faces continuing problems securing DAP. With Chinese availability essentially shut down, the country can make their own or look for additional imports from other suppliers such as Ma’aden or OCP in Morocco.

However, both options bump up against the high cost to produce or import DAP. The maximum retail price for DAP is much lower than what DAP currently costs. Sources said suppliers of DAP, both domestic producers and importers, have been looking for ways to get compensation from the Indian government for the potential losses.

Brazil:

Paranagua showed a steady increase in MAP prices to $740-$750/mt CFR. Sources pointed to the higher ammonia costs around the world as adding to the higher prices Brazilian buyers are facing.

Rondonopolis prices were pegged at $880-962/mt FOB ex-warehouse, a move up from the $850/mt FOB last reported from the area.Sources said prices at the ports and inland are being affected by the decision of the Chinese government to limit or ban exports of phosphates through June 2022.

The barter rate for 1 mt of MAP at Sorriso remained steady at 102 bags of corn.

Imports of MAP for January-September this year were reported at 3.6 million mt, just slightly down from the 3.7 million mt imported during the same period in 2020, according to Tarde Data Monitor.

Third-quarter imports for 2021 were up 21 percent, to 1.6 million mt from 1.4 million mt during the same period in 2020.September 2021 imports of 622,000 mt were up 7.4 percent from September 2020 imports of 579,000 mt.

TSP

Iran, Market Watch, South Central, Triple Superphosphate, U.S. Gulf, Western Cornbelt

U.S. Gulf:

A lack of supply left traders unable to test the week’s TSP barge market, sources said, leaving prices at a last-reported $600-$610/st FOB. “There is zero triple available in a barge at any price right now,” one trader said. Sources generally expected pricing to start at $620/st FOB should material become available today.

Western Cornbelt:

The TSP market jumped to $665-$675/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, up $35/st from the week before.

South Central:

TSP pricing in the South Central region firmed to $675-$690/st FOB terminals, up $60-$65/st from the prior week.

Iran:

Agricultural Support Services Co. (ASSC) has called a tender for the supply of 4×40,000 mt lots of granular TSP. The tender closes on Oct. 16, and submissions will be opened the following day at 2:00 p.m. local time.