All posts by mickeybarb@charter.net

Ma’aden Expands Ammonia Shipping Fleet

Ammonia, News, News Briefs, Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabian Mining Co (Ma’aden), Riyadh, has signed deals with Antwerp-based Exmar Marine NV and Athens-based Thenamaris LNG Inc. to hire a total of four vessels to transport ammonia for the company, the Saudi Gazette reported on Sept. 29. The signing of the agreements took place during the annual International Fertilizer Association conference in Lisbon, Portugal, on Sept. 27-29.

Both agreements are due to take effect in the first quarter of 2022. The additional vessels will expand Ma’aden’s ammonia maritime fleet to seven vessels, and take annual ammonia shipping capacity to 2 million mt, according to the news report. Ma’aden started ammonia exports with just one ship back in 2016.

Ma’aden is scheduled to start production at its third ammonia plant at Ras Al-Khair Industrial City on Saudi Arabia’s East Coast in the first quarter of next year (GM Aug. 13, p. 30), a schedule that the company said remains on track

The 1.1 million mt/y “Ammonia-3” plant is the first unit under construction as part of Ma’aden’s ambitious plans for a third large-scale “Phosphate 3” phosphate complex. However, ammonia from Ammonia-3 looks likely to be sold initially on the market. In February, local media, citing Ma’aden, reported output from the new plant would add 1.1 million mt to the Saudi producer’s sales (GM Feb. 12, p. 37).

Conserv FS Completes Expansion in Illinois

Eastern Cornbelt, Featured, News

Conserv FS in Waterman, Ill., announced on Sept. 30 that it has completed a major expansion at its Waterman facility. The expansion includes a new 7,500-ton dry fertilizer building equipped with a 24-ton blender and a NTEP certified Auto-Batch blending system, which has the capacity to load eight semi-trucks per hour.

The project also added 1.3 million gallons of liquid fertilizer storage integrated with a crop protection mixing facility and warehouse. The new liquid facility is equipped with three load bays providing both top and bottom load options with “hot-load” capabilities, the company said.

In addition, the expansion added a 24/7 unattended bay for after-hours availability of nitrogen solution loads with nitrogen stabilizers. Conserv FS said each of the facilities bays can fill six semi-loads per hour, for a total of 18 semi-loads per hour. The company said 72,000 gallons of bulk crop protection product storage is also contained in this facility, with ample mini-bulk and package good storage.

Conserv FS said both the dry fertilizer and the liquid facility will contain automated systems integrated with ordering, operations, and accounting software, providing a greatly streamlined process and improved flow of information to the customer. An open house is scheduled for Oct. 8 from 2-4 p.m. to showcase the expansion and how it will serve farmers and the community.

“At Conserv FS we are committed to serving the farmers of today while planning for the future and the needs of the next generation of farmers. This large project at our Waterman facility demonstrates our commitment to the future of agriculture in our territory,” said Dave Swigart, General Manager of Conserv FS. “We’ve been serving agriculture for nearly 100 years, and this project is an example of our commitment to serve the farmer of the future.”

Incorporated in 1928, Conserv FS is an agricultural cooperative offering agronomy, energy, and turf services and products. The company operates 13 service center locations throughout northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin.

Itafos Reports Sulfuric Acid Supply Disruption

Featured, Houston, TX, News, Pacific N.W., Phosphate, Sulfuric Acid

Houston-based Itafos Inc. on Sept. 30 announced a disruption in sulfuric acid supply to its Conda, Idaho, phosphate plant, from Rio Tinto’s Kennecott mine. The company said Conda fulfills approximately 40 percent of its sulfuric acid requirements from volumes produced internally and approximately 60 percent from a combination of volumes received from Rio Tinto’s Kennecott mine under a long-term supply agreement and volumes procured from other third-party producers.

On Sept. 28, 2021, Rio Tinto announced that it declared force majeure on shipments of copper cathode and sulfuric acid from its Kennecott mine after the smelter was shut down on Sept. 21, 2021, following a release of molten copper materials. According to the announcement, Rio Tinto is currently assessing the work needed to safely restart operations at the smelter and is working closely with their customers to minimize any impacts.

Itafos said it has been and will continue working to mitigate potential adverse effects of the disruption. In addition, it said it is evaluating the overall expected impact of the disruption, including whether an update on its guidance for 2021 is warranted.

Ammonia

Ammonia, Black Sea, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, Middle East, Northern Plains, Tampa, Thailand, U.S. Gulf, Western, Western Cornbelt

U.S. Gulf/Tampa:

October Tampa ammonia pricing settled at $665/mt CFR during the week, a $50/mt increase from September’s $615/mt CFR. The updated price outpaced recent expectations of a possible $20-$30/mt jump.

Continued firming in the European natural gas market contributed to the larger-than-expected settlement, sources noted, as did ongoing supply shortfalls in the U.S. resulting from Hurricane Ida. A 25,000 mt Caribbean sale announced by Nutrien late in the prior week suggested a possible $55/mt premium over September pricing at Tampa.

Eastern Cornbelt:

Ammonia prices moved up once again in the Eastern Cornbelt. Nutrien raised its ammonia price at Lima, Ohio, to $730/st FOB, up from $690/st the week before. Pricing levels from CF had reportedly firmed to $735/st FOB in Illinois and $745/st FOB in Indiana. On Sept. 30, Koch raised its posted price FOB Henry, Ill., to $800/st.

Western Cornbelt:

Prices soared for ammonia during the week. While the low end of the regional market was reported at $735/st FOB Palmyra, Mo., Koch on Sept. 27 reportedly raised its postings to $745-$755/st FOB Sergeant Bluff, Iowa, and Nebraska terminals at Beatrice and Greenwood, with Fort Dodge, Iowa, pricing firming to $775-$785/st FOB. Koch’s price at Creston, Iowa, was quoted at $785-$795/st FOB at the start of the week.

By Sept. 30, Koch’s postings for October-December tons had firmed again, to $785/st FOB Beatrice and Sergeant Bluff; $790/st FOB Greenwood; $800/st FOB Fort Dodge and Garner, Iowa; and $805/st FOB Washington, Iowa. On Oct. 1, Koch reported that it was pulling all ammonia offers until further notice.

Northern Plains:

Prices were ramping up quickly for ammonia in the Northern Plains.

The week began with reports of ammonia pricing at $700/st FOB Velva, N.D., and delivered offers at $730-$755/st in North Dakota, up from $715-$745/st DEL the week before. Koch on Sept. 27 issued a new round of higher postings, however, with prices firming to $785-$795/st FOB Vernon Center and Murdock, Minn. Those prices strengthened again at midweek, to $810/st FOB Vernon Center and Murdock for October-December.

North Dakota sources also reported much higher delivered ammonia prices at midweek, with reports of $825/st offers circulating for fall tons.

Black Sea:

The closure of the Ukrainian ammonia plants due to high natural gas prices leaves only limited Russian material for sale in the area. Outside of long-term contracts, sources said only about 5,000-10,000 mt might be occasionally available for the spot market.

As availability began to close off, sources reported one deal at $615/mt FOB for 15,000 mt for an October loading. Future sales could easily move the price up another $10-$20/mt. Sources said the Ukrainian production that remains is being marked for only the domestic market.

Middle East:

Ma’aden announced this week that its ammonia production was back up and ready to hit full production. Sources said the rated production capacity is about 1 million mt/y.The return of Ma’aden provided a brief glimmer of hope to ammonia buyers, especially the company’s regular customers in Southeast Asia.

In addition to the return of the ammonia unit at the existing phosphate plant, a second line for ammonia production is expected to start up in December. This second plant will eventually provide ammonia for another phosphate plant, but probably not until well into the next year. Output for that plant is also reported at 1 million mt/y.

In anticipation of having more ammonia available in the first quarter of 2022, sources said Ma’aden chartered four additional vessels to pick up and deliver ammonia for January through March 2022. These ships are in addition the three vessels already on the books for the ammonia producer.

Besides being ready to once again be a steady supplier to Asian buyers, sources said some of the tonnage might be sold to Turkey, which is expected to have difficulties finding ammonia after the closures of the Ukrainian facilities. Some sales may also end up in India, depending on vessel alignments and pricing.

For now, however, the supplies from the Arab Gulf remain tight. No spot business has been able to be concluded.

Western Europe:

The high cost of natural gas in Europe is causing more facilities to either shut down or drastically reduce their output.

This reduction in available ammonia, combined with the closures in Ukraine and a tight Arab Gulf market, has led to higher prices in Northwest Europe. Sources said the price has moved up to $710-$720/mt C&F, with a lot more room to rise.

One trader said the current price of natural gas into Europe can be translated to an ammonia production cost of $1,000/mt or more. The plants that are still operating are doing so with a mixture of gas contracted earlier at cheaper rates and the more expensive modern product, sources said. Eventually, if the gas situation does not get straightened out, one trader said the plants will have to close.

Baltic prices are still being discussed for October. Sources said producers are looking at $630-$650/mt FOB, while buyers are bidding at $615/mt FOB.

In past discussions, some producers had been willing to accept deals that were formulas based on Yuzhnyy pricing. With the Yuzhnyy spot market essentially voided out because of the plant closures, the Baltic producers are holding firm to setting a price on the market conditions in Northwest Europe.

Thailand:

January to August 2021 imports of ammonia in Thailand were up 12.8 percent, to 270,000 mt from 239,000 mt during the same period last year, according to Trade Data Monitor. The main suppliers so far this year were Malaysia at 182,000 mt, and Australia at 63,000 mt.

August imports were limited to 2,600 mt, down from 35,000 mt a year ago. Sources said the small amount was for emergency use to sustain local industry.

Urea

Brazil, China, Eastern Canada, Eastern Cornbelt, India, Indonesia, Market Watch, Middle East, Northeast, Northern Plains, Pacific N.W., Pakistan, Thailand, U.S. Gulf, Urea, Western Cornbelt

U.S. Gulf:

Increases in the Arab Gulf and Brazil markets set the stage for continued firming in the NOLA granular urea market, sources said.

Coupled with sweeping upward moves across the nitrogen spectrum, urea barges releasing in September were quoted trading up to $650/st FOB for a loaded barge, while players reported tons loading in the September-October window kicking off the week at a $599/st FOB low. Most of the week’s 30-day volume was noted settling in the $600-$625/st FOB range by the end of the week.

Material loading in November and December was reported changing hands in the $590-$640/st FOB range, with prices increasing as the week wore on.

Eastern Cornbelt:

The urea market was pegged at $640-$660/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, up from the prior week’s $585-$630/st FOB range, with the lower end of the range reported at Cincinnati, Ohio, early in the week.

Western Cornbelt:

Urea prices jumped to $640-$650/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low reported at St. Louis, Mo., earlier in the week, and the high for new spot sales in Iowa. The $650/st FOB offer was pulled as the week progressed, however, with higher numbers expected.

Northern Plains:

The urea market reportedly jumped to $640-$690/st FOB St. Paul, Minn., as the week progressed, up from $610-$650/st FOB during the prior week. Delivered pricing in the Northern Plains was reported at $680-$725/st, depending on location, up from $650-$695/st DEL the week before.

Northeast:

The urea market FOB Fairless Hills moved to $650/st FOB on Sept. 29, up from $620/st on Sept. 27 and $550/st on Sept. 20. No current prices were confirmed at East Liverpool, Ohio, in late September. The Savannah, Ga., market was pegged at $640-$680/st FOB, with the low reported earlier in the week and the high on Sept. 30.

Eastern Canada:

Urea prices in late September ranged broadly at C$745-$835/mt FOB in Eastern Canada, depending on location. Those levels were up from C$715-$765/mt FOB in mid-August.

Pacific Northwest:

Urea pricing at Rivergate, Ore., firmed to $720/st FOB during the week, up from the previous week’s range of $600-$650/st FOB.

India:

The RCF urea tender closed on Oct. 1 with 12 companies offering a total of 1.944 million mt. East Coast offers totaled 1.024 million mt, indicating a strong presence of Chinese material. West Coast offers were at 830,000 mt. Two producers offered a total of 90,000 mt on an FOB basis. This is the most urea offered in an Indian tender since the May 4 MMTC tender, when 2.2 million mt were offered.

In a surprise move, RCF also quickly released the prices offered in the tender. Amber came in with the lowest offer to the East Coast at $665.50/mt CFR and Dreymoor into the West Coast at $714/mt CFR. The last tender in July was priced at $510-$517/mt CFR.

Offering Company US$/mt CFR Quantity (mt) Discharge Port Notes
Amber 665.50 65,000 Krishnapatnam-Paradip-Kakinada L1 East Coast
730.50 65,000 Mundra-Pipavav
Ameropa         790.00 60,000 Krishnapatnam
790.00 50,000 Krishnapatnam
790.00 50,000 Gangavaram
790.00 51,500 Kandla
790.00 52,500 Mundra
790.00 50,000 Pipavav
Continental   758.00 45,000 Krishnapatnam-Kakinada-Vizag-Gangavaram
755.00 47,500 Mundra-Kandla-Adani Tuna
755.00 47,500 Mundra-Kandla-Adani Tuna
Midgulf     695.00 50,000 Krishnapatnam
695.00 50,000 Gangavaram
725.00 50,000 Mundra
725.00 50,000 Adani Dahej
Dreymoor 665.95 62,000 Kakinada
714.00 52,000 Pipavav L1 West Coast
Medallion 704.79 50,000 Gangavaram-Krishnapatnam-Kakinada-Karaikal-Dharma-Vizag-Paradip
727.79 45,000 Kandla-Pipavav-Mundra-Adani Tuna
Koch 725.00 65,000 Krishnapatnam-Gangavaram
Samsung           759.30 50,000 Kakinada
759.30 48,000 Krishnapatnam
759.30 45,000 Karaikal
754.50 48,000 New Mangalore
754.50 90,000 Kandla 2 lots of 45,000 mt
754.50 135,000 Mundra 3 lots of 45,000 mt
754.50 100,000 Pipavav 2 lots of 50,000 mt
Swiss Singapore 759.00 90,000 ECI 2 lots of 45,000 mt
759.00 90,000 WCI 2 lots of 45,000 mt
Transglobe 750.00 50,000 Paradip
795.00 50,000 Pipavav

Offers of 45,000 mt each came from producers PIC at $690/mt FOB and Fertiglobe at $710/mt FOB. Most likely, the tons would be sent to a West Coast port.

Going into the latest RCF urea tender, the range of estimated total offers ranged from 700,000 mt to 1.3 million mt. Sources speculated that China could supply as much as 700,000 mt, with most saying the number is closer to 250,000-300,000 mt.

Inquiries for vessels to move urea from Egypt and the Arab Gulf in late October and early November indicate that some traders are looking to offer tons from those regions as well. Any urea from the Black Sea is out of the running, however. The closure of the Ukrainian plants in that area due to high gas prices eliminated 100,000-200,000 mt of urea that normally would have been offered into India.

With freight from China pegged at $40/mt, the Amber offer of $665.50/mt CFR puts the netback to China at $625/mt FOB before trader costs. Sources said freight from the Arab Gulf is now about $30/mt, leading to a netback in the low-$690s/mt FOB based on the Dreymoor low offer for the West Coast at $714/mt CFR. At that rate, the PIC offer will most likely be accepted along with the trader tons.

Pakistan:

In a rare move, Pakistan will be re-entering the urea buying market. The Economic Coordination Committee granted permission to 100,000 mt of urea to be imported. Sources said TCP will most likely handle the deal.

China:

The statement by the National Development Reform Commission (NDRC) blocking phosphate exports through June 2022 made many in the urea industry nervous that nitrogen exports will be next. So far, however, the NDRC has not applied its rules to the urea industry.

Sources said there is 250,000-300,000 mt of urea already in the hands of international traders at portside warehouses. Reportedly, these tons should be allowed to be exported to India, if awarded, without any hindrance from the Chinese government.

However, in the phosphate edict, the NDRC told producers that product already under contract should be decreased in tonnage or delayed. The NDRC also suggested canceling the contract as a last resort. Similar actions could be taken against the urea at the warehouses, said sources, if the NDRC decides more urea is needed for the domestic market.

East Coast offers in the RCF/India urea tender totaled just above 1 million mt, indicating a strong Chinese presence in the tender. Sources said some of those offers may be double counted – that is, some producers may have backed different traders to better ensure a sale in the tender. The low offer in the East Coast of India by Amber at $665.50/mt CFR indicates a netback to China in the low-$620s/mt FOB.

Before the RCF tender close, there were reports late in the week that a broker was offering 50,000 mt at $565/mt FOB for October loading. Sources could not confirm if anyone made a bid on the product. Given the current unclear situation about urea exports, however, one trader said most traders are probably nervous about committing to take the product.

At the same time, there are also reports of small deals at $500/mt FOB to Southeast Asian buyers. Sources said the sales were only for a few thousand tons, and any larger quantities, such as those needed by India, would not see such a favorable price.

The NDRC wants to limit urea exports to ensure a plentiful supply of urea for the domestic market at a stable price. All international deals being quoted are at $500/mt FOB and up. Sources reported quotes for domestic sales out of the factory at a mid-$450s/mt FOB export equivalent rate. If this holds, then the actions of the NDRC paid off.

Middle East:

The week opened with reports of Fertiglobe selling a cargo out of the Arab Gulf at $620/mt FOB. This price represents a jump of $135/mt from the last spot deal. The week closed with an estimated price in the $690s/mt FOB based on the offers in the RCF/India urea tender.

Sources said discussions have taken place that reflect ever higher prices from the old $480-$485/mt FOB. However, the Fertiglobe deal is the first confirmed sale on the spot market.

If that earlier price had held, offers of Arab Gulf material into India would have been at a near-record high of $640/mt CFR. In the end, the Dreymoor offer of $714/mt CFR for a West Coast delivery pushed the netback into the low-$690s/mt FOB. A direct offer of $690/mt FOB by PIC also helped set the tone for new pricing.

Egyptian prices keep rising with strong demand from Europe. Last week, Egyptian producers knocked on $600/mt FOB for November shipment and kept pushing for more. Fertiglobe closed a deal at $610/mt FOB for November. This represents the highest price achieved by an Egyptian producer since October 2008, according to one trader. The previous high price, according to Green Markets, was $425/mt FOB in March 2014.

Producers continue to push on their pricing ideas. Reportedly bids from European buyers at $615-$620/mt FOB were rebuffed. Sources also said traders holding some earlier Egyptian tons are being approached with bids of $620/mt FOB.

To back up their position, producers point to reports from the Baltics that sales there took place at $610-$615/mt FOB. The traditional gap between the Baltic and Egyptian markets would put the Egyptian price at $650/mt FOB.

Sources reported that by the end of the week, producers were rejecting $650/mt FOB. Initial reports had producers stepping away from discussing any more November or December business. However, right after the RCF prices were announced, Helwan announced that it settled a 10,000 mt sale of granular at $700/mt FOB.

Even as the price haggling takes place, a number of companies have sent in enquiries for vessels to move Egyptian material to India in November. The speculation is that some deals may be cut to include Egyptian material in the RCF tender.

Indonesia:

After Liven won the Kaltim auction at $502/mt FOB for 35,000 mt, sources reported that the producer has been shopping around extra tons at the same price. All told, sources said Indonesian producers could have about 250,000 mt to move in this quarter.

One trader said the $502/mt FOB price could make Indonesian material an attractive possibility in the RCF/Indian tender. With Chinese and Arab Gulf prices up, an offer of Indonesian urea at the current price could provide a good profit margin for the trader.Sources said another Indonesian auction will most likely not happen until December.

Brazil:

The jump in the urea price to $640/mt CFR last week prompted more discussion this week about where prices are going. Sources said most of the talk focused on $680-$700/mt CFR. In the end, however, this week ended similar to last week, with even a slight dip to $620-$645/mt CFR.

Once the RCF tender details are released, sources said the market is expected to move in accordance with the price set in India. Many traders in the area have been nervous about the rapid price rises in Egypt, the Arab Gulf, and China, while still waiting to see how many tons India will take.

Adding to the nervous nature of the market, sources looked at the actions taken by China’s NDRC on phosphates, and worried that it would declare a ban on urea exports as well.

During the week, sources were discussing higher prices in reaction to the Indian tender and Chinese government actions. Reports of material traders at $710-$725/mt CFR circulated. There were also reports from outside Brazil that a deal was done at $385/mt CFR. None of these deals could be independently verified by Green Markets.

Prices in the upper $370s/mt CFR are not unlikely, said sources. The jump to $640/mt CFR at the end of last week led a number of industry watchers to expect prices around $700/mt CFR this week. However, buyers and sellers are reportedly treading softly until more details are available from the Indian tender.

Rondonopolis held even at $660/mt FOB ex-warehouse, despite a lot of talk of higher levels needed by producers. The talk indicated prices should be in the $840s/mt FOB, but buyers remained reluctant to let the price run away that fast.

Thailand:

January to August 2021 urea imports in Thailand were reported at 1.58 million mt by Trade Data Monitor, up marginally from the 1.57 million mt imported during the same period in 2020.

August 2021 imports were up 46 percent, to 156,000 mt from 107,000 mt in August 2020. Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and Qatar were the primary suppliers in August.

Thailand Urea Imports January-August 2021
Supplying Country Quantity (mt)
Saudi Arabia 506,000
Malaysia 337,000
Oman 317,000
Qatar 208,000
Indonesia 138,000
Total 1.5 million

UAN

California, Eastern Canada, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, Northeast, Northern Plains, U.S. Gulf, UAN, Western Cornbelt

U.S. Gulf:

A $435/st ($13.59/unit) FOB fourth-quarter barge sale loading from Geismar, La., quickly pulled in additional orders, with sellers confirming more than 30,000 st sold at that price through the morning of Sept. 30.

CF was reported following up with an updated $425/st ($13.28/unit) FOB posting for NOLA-loading barges later on Sept. 30, bringing the market to a $425-$435/st ($13.28-$13.59/unit) FOB range for the week.

The updated values leapfrogged earlier $400/st FOB expectations, while moving up substantially from the market’s previously reported $340/st ($10.63/unit) FOB price.

Eastern Cornbelt:

New UAN-32 prices remained scarce in the Eastern Cornbelt in late September, but sources quoted a few offers slowly resurfacing at the $450-$475/st ($14.06-$14.84/unit) FOB level in the region, up significantly from the last business reported before Hurricane Ida in the $355-$375/st ($11.09-$11.72/unit) FOB range.

“Versus urea, this still looks like a bargain, but who knows what and when CF will make the next move,” commented one source at midweek.

Western Cornbelt:

New UAN-32 offers in the Western Cornbelt were reportedly on the table in the $450-$475/st ($14.06-$14.84/unit) FOB range during the week, up dramatically from limited offers in the $375-$395/st ($11.72-$12.34/unit) FOB range in late August.

In Oklahoma, CF was reportedly out with new truck prices at $455/st ($14.22/unit) FOB Verdigris and $465/st ($14.53/unit) FOB Woodward.

Northern Plains:

Limited UAN-32 offers were reported in the $450-$475/st ($14.06-$14.84/unit) FOB range in Minnesota, up significantly from last report, while delivered UAN-28 pricing had reportedly jumped to $430-$440/st ($15.36-$15.72/unit) into central North Dakota.

Northeast:

The UAN-32 market was reported at $450/st ($14.06/unit) FOB Fairless Hills, Pa., early in the week, up $50/st from the previous week. The last indications at Baltimore, Md., were also at the $450/st FOB level, but some suppliers withdrew from the market until there is more clarity on supply.

New UAN-32 pricing out of terminals in upstate New York had reportedly firmed to $520/st ($16.25/unit) FOB, up a full $104/st since early September.

Eastern Canada:

Sources reported few new price quotes circulating for UAN in Eastern Canada. The limited offers that were confirmed showed a C$460/mt (C$16.43/unit) FOB offer for UAN-28 in Ontario, up C$20/mt from last report.

California:

While the last UAN-32 business at Stockton, Calif., was reported at $430-$450/st ($13.44-$14.06/unit) FOB, sources said some suppliers had pushed reference pricing to as high as $520/st ($16.25/unit) FOB at that location in late September.

Ammonium Nitrate

Ammonium Nitrate, France, Market Watch, Western Cornbelt

Western Cornbelt:

The last ammonium nitrate offers remained at $440-$450/st FOB in Missouri and $455/st rail-DEL in the Midwest.

France:

After pulling its price offers late last week for November deliveries of ammonium nitrate 33.5 (YaraBelaExtran33.5) in France just days after they were posted (GM  Sept. 24, p. 9), Yara on Sept. 27 announced a new price posting for November deliveries. It set the new price at €515/mt bulk CPT, a €40/mt increase over the previous listing, before again pulling the offer a couple of days later.

Ammonium Sulfate

Ammonium Sulfate, Brazil, China, Eastern Canada, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, Northeast, Northern Plains, U.S. Gulf, Western Cornbelt

U.S. Gulf:

A slow start to the week’s NOLA ammonium sulfate barge market ended with reports of material trading at $385/st FOB on Sept. 30. Players previously voiced expectations of a move to $360/st FOB or higher from the previously-reported $340/st FOB level.

Interoceanic (IOC) on Oct. 1 announced new prices for ammonium sulfate, and reported that barge availability is improving and the company is lifting its force majeure declaration. The company’s new NOLA barge posting firmed to $410/st FOB.

“Some shipments have been delayed beyond shipment periods, but IOC is working with customers to ensure all contracts will be fulfilled,” the company said.

Eastern Cornbelt:

The ammonium sulfate market was pegged at $390-$425/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, up another $30/st or more from the previous week, with the Cincinnati market quoted solidly in the $415-$425/st FOB range for domestic tons at midweek.

New ammonium sulfate prices from IOC on Oct. 1 included $435/st FOB Delta terminals, $440/st FOB Illinois and Ohio River terminals, and $455/st FOB Tampa, Fla.

Western Cornbelt:

The ammonium sulfate market edged up to $390-$410/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low reported at St. Louis at midweek. New postings from IOC on Oct. 1 included $400/st FOB Houston, Texas, and $435/st FOB St. Louis. IOC’s rail-DEL postings moved to $460/st in the Southern Plains.

Northern Plains:

Granular ammonium sulfate prices were quoted at $440-$460/st FOB St. Paul late in the week, up from $400-$410/st FOB late the previous week. Delivered tons in North Dakota were pegged at the $425-$435/st level, with speculation that prices would move up by the end of the week.

A price increase did come from IOC on Oct. 1, with new postings firming to $460/st FOB Sioux City, Iowa, and $450/st rail-DEL in the Northern Plains.

Northeast:

The ammonium sulfate market had reportedly climbed to as high as $415-$425/st FOB East Liverpool, Ohio, up significantly from early September. AdvanSix on Sept. 20 raised its ammonium sulfate prices by $20/st, with granular firming to $335/st FOB Hopewell, Va.

Eastern Canada:

Ammonium sulfate prices in Eastern Canada had reportedly strengthened to C$535-$585/mt FOB in late September, up from C$485-$545/mt at last report.

China:

Caprolactam-grade amsul in China remained at $200-$205/mt FOB. The latest round of business included a sale to an Asian buyer at $202/mt FOB.

Reportedly, Asian buyers are pushing back against efforts to move up the price. Sellers are arguing that the cutbacks in China’s industrial output are also cutting back on the amount of amsul available for export.

The main issue for the buyers, said one trader, is not the price of the product, but the increased costs of shipping the product. Besides the usual ups and downs of freight rates, sources said the demurrage costs of waiting up to two weeks to get a vessel loaded should not be passed on to the buyer.

So far, said one trader, the two sides have reached a balance and the price has remained stable.

Brazil:

Granulated amsul remains at $320-$345/mt CFR at Paranagua. Some nervousness crept in among traders when the NDRC in China issued a ban on phosphate exports. Some in Brazil expected to see a similar ban on other fertilizers, including amsul. This concern led to talks that the price at Paranagua could go to $360/mt CFR soon.

Rondonopolis is also steady at $400/mt FOB ex-warehouse. The concerns of the traders in Paranagua are also being felt inland. However, no one was talking about specific prices.

DAP/MAP

Brazil, Central Florida, China, DAP/MAP, Eastern Canada, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, Northeast, Northern Plains, Saudi Arabia, U.S. Exports, U.S. Gulf, Western, Western Cornbelt

Central Florida:

Central Florida DAP truck postings remained at the week-ago $655/st FOB level, sources confirmed. Truck-loaded MAP was posted at $685/st FOB, also steady from the prior report.

MAP trucks loading from northern Florida were quoted at $720/st FOB, firming from the week-ago $700/st FOB.

U.S. Gulf:

Supply tightness throughout the phosphate system contributed to rising prices at NOLA, sources said.

DAP business continued to be noted at the week-ago $675/st FOB high, while sales of domestically produced material were reported changing hands at $650/st FOB, rising $15/st from the week-ago $635/st FOB floor. Sources quoted new offers lifting to $680/st FOB, with no takers on Sept. 30.

Extreme MAP tightness translated to soaring values, with early-week $745/st FOB trading noted lifting to $765/st FOB by Sept. 30. Domestic sellers reportedly pulled NOLA MAP pricing indications quoted at $650/st FOB in the prior week, while new offers were reported lifting to $775/st FOB on Sept. 30.

DAP values lifted to $650-$675/st FOB for the week, rising from $635-$675/st FOB in the prior report. MAP rocketed to $745-$765/st FOB, up from $665-$730/st FOB the week before.

U.S. Exports:

Sources continued to report a quiet Gulf export market, with last-done DAP holding steady at $660/mt FOB. The MAP market’s most recent spot sale was reported at $685/mt FOB.

Eastern Cornbelt:

DAP prices generally fell in the $710-$720/st FOB range in the Eastern Cornbelt in late September, while MAP had reportedly increased to $760-$790/st FOB, up from the prior week’s $735-$775/st FOB range, depending on location.

Western Cornbelt:

DAP pricing remained in a broad range at $685-$725/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the St. Louis market unchanged at $700-$710/st FOB. The MAP market firmed to $760-$785/st FOB in the region, with pricing at both St. Louis and Catoosa/Inola, Okla., reported at $770-$785/st FOB as the week progressed.

Northern Plains:

Sources pegged the DAP market at $700-$735/st FOB St. Paul, with MAP quoted at $760-$785/st FOB at that location, up from $730-$770/st the week before. Delivered green MAP had reportedly jumped to $825/st in western North Dakota, up from the last reported $755/st DEL level.

Northeast:

Phosphate pricing FOB East Liverpool was confirmed at $725/st for DAP and $775/st for MAP, up $35/st from early September. There is currently no MAP supply at Fairless Hills, but offers for late October and November reportedly firmed from $735/st up to $750/st FOB during the week.

Nutrien confirmed that its MAP price at Aurora, N.C., and White Springs, Fla., moved up $20/st during the week, to $720/st FOB.

Eastern Canada:

Phosphate prices were up in Eastern Canada, with reports of new MAP offers ranging broadly at C$985-$1,060/mt FOB in Ontario in late September, up C$15/mt at the higher end of the range. The last DAP business was reported at the C$980/mt level FOB Montreal.

Western U.S.:

MAP postings in California and the Pacific Northwest firmed to $840/st DEL during the week, up from the previous week’s levels of $785-$805/st DEL in California; $775-$795/st DEL in Washington, Oregon, and Nevada; and $765-$785/st DEL in Idaho, Utah, and Montana.

Saudi Arabia:

The recent Saudi Arabia phosphate market was quoted at $635-$650/mt FOB, unmoved from the prior report.

China:

The week opened with the NDRC issuing instructions to all phosphate producers on what they needed to do to ensure a plentiful supply of phosphates, especially DAP, for the domestic market at a stable price.

The directive told companies that exports of phosphates would be limited through June 2022. Many in the industry read the edict to imply a full ban was being called. However, sources pointed out that the NDRC could only enforce a limit on exports. One trader said a ban on exports would have to come from a different government agency. Such a move would trigger a series of force majeures that could affect future efforts to export phosphates.

The companies with existing export contracts were told to comply with the limitations on exports, attempt to decrease the tonnage being shipped, or see if they can delay shipment until after June 2022. The NRDC also suggested just walking away from the contract.

According to Chinese government data reported by Trade Data Monitor, China exported 4.8 million mt of DAP in the January-August 2021 period, up 32 percent from the 3.6 million exported during the same time last year.

The move comes as producers face growing problems maintaining production. Higher prices for inputs, including phos rock, sulfur, and ammonia, have been cutting into the producers’ margins as buyers push back against ever higher prices. At the same time, the Chinese government has ordered reductions in available electricity. In some cases, rolling blackouts will be the norm for a while.

The government is reportedly stepping up efforts to increase energy output, but the rising cost of coal and natural gas is hampering electricity producers, whose ability to raise power prices is severely limited.

A further hit on the industry comes from the central government’s pledge to clean up the environment. Phosphate producers are being watched more closely to ensure their plants are not exceeding pollution standards. The gypsum stacks produced are also being closely watched to ensure they are not violating any pollution and safety regulations.

Brazil:

The announcement by China’s NDRC that phosphate exports would be limited shook up the MAP market in Brazil. Despite the nervous situation, prices only moved slightly to $720-$740/mt CFR in Paranagua.

According to Trade Data Monitor, China exported 1.6 million mt of MAP to Brazil from January through August this year. However, the Brazilian government reported imports from China of only 210,000 mt for the same period. International traders tend to accept the larger number as more accurate.

The barter rate for 1 mt of MAP shifted to 102 bags of corn at Sorriso, up from the previous 100 bags.