U.S. Gulf:
Market participants said they were seeing a market correction earlier in the week, with NOLA trading early in the week at $482/st FOB for first-half October. Full October prices were said to be falling into the $470s and November in the $460s/st FOB.
The news on Sept. 15 that CF Industries was idling its
U.K. nitrogen plants due to soaring natural gas prices once again lit a fire
under the NOLA market, however. Loaded September barges were reported to have
traded at $515-$538/st FOB, higher than early-week sentiment for forward
cargoes, but still below the week-ago $518-$552/st FOB.
Eastern
Cornbelt:
Urea prices continued to climb in the Eastern
Cornbelt, fueled by the previous two weeks of rapidly strengthening NOLA values
after Hurricane Ida.
Urea
prices were quoted at $525-$545/st FOB Cincinnati, Ohio, and most Illinois
River terminals, up from the prior week’s low of $490-$505/st FOB. The upper
end of the regional range was pegged at the $550-$570/st FOB level on a spot
basis, with the high confirmed out of some Ohio River locations as the week
advanced.
Western Cornbelt:
The
urea market was quoted at $550-$570/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt at
mid-month, with the low confirmed at St. Louis and Caruthersville, Mo., and the
high in Iowa.
Southern Plains:
The
Catoosa/Inola, Okla., urea market reportedly started the week at $550-$555/st
FOB before climbing to $570-$575/st FOB for new offers on Sept. 16. Sources
pegged the Enid urea market at $560-$565/st FOB late in the week, with the
Houston, Texas, market quoted at a solid $575/st FOB.
South Central:
Sources
pegged the urea market at $530-$570/st FOB terminals in the South Central
region, up another $10-$20/st from the previous week and a full $55-$85/st from
late August, with the low reported at Convent, La., and the high at Owensboro,
Ky. Other spot prices at midweek included $550/st FOB Little Rock, Ark.,
$560/st FOB Shreveport, La., and $550-$570/st FOB Memphis, Tenn.
Southeast:
Urea
was pegged at a firm $515-$535/st FOB port terminals in the Southeast, up
another $5-$15/st from the previous week, with the upper end reported at
Wilmington, N.C., and reflecting a $55/st increase since late August.
India:
The
fertilizer world is waiting for India to call its urea tender. Sources said Department
of Fertilizers (DoF) and RCF representatives met this week to figure out
financing for the tender.
Sources
said RCF experienced some troubles issuing letters of credit for some of the
awards issued in the last tender. Traders reported that the delay in calling
the next tender is tied to making sure the credit lines for RCF are clear and
large enough to cover the anticipated quantities. Reportedly, RCF asked the DoF
for an advance of 40-50 percent before it called the tender. Sources said the
government officials rejected that idea.
There
are no doubts that India needs the urea, with media reports of localized
shortages throughout the country. The shortages are occurring even as the
country reports current supplies from ports to local distributors of 4 million
mt.
Sources
said RCF will need to buy at least another 1.2 million mt just to keep up with
demand. However, reports out of China indicate that if Beijing allows exports,
the tonnage might top off at 450,000 mt. At the same time, Arab Gulf supplies
remain limited and support from the Black Sea is not expected because of the
rising cost of natural gas in Ukraine, causing urea and ammonia plants to close
down.
Even
if the tender is called on Sept. 17, sources said the first cargoes from China
will not begin to be shipped until October. At that point, Indian demand will
be competing with the Chinese domestic market. If Beijing sees prices rising
too much or if it appears that too many tons are being offered for export, the
central government could impose restrictions or tack on a special duty on the
exports.
Depending
on how many tons RCF is able to secure in this tender, sources said it is
likely the company will keep coming in with tenders for the rest of the year.
Depending on how each tender goes, said one source, the line-up of tenders
could extend all the way through March, the end of the Indian fiscal year.
China:
Sources
said there may soon be further cutbacks in production. Traders noted that the
issue of having enough energy to power the plants remains a continuing problem.
Sources said getting the urea to the ports and then onto vessels is also a
growing concern.
Environmental
inspections and penalties have also stepped up. Reports are circulating that
more environmental inspectors are spreading out among the industrial sector
issuing citations for violations of emissions standards. In some cases, the
citations include shutdown orders.
Sources
said the central government is leaning on local energy producers to ensure
enough electricity and heat for residential customers as the winter season
approaches. Similar actions to protect the power grid during heatwaves in the
summer caused a dip in urea output.
Restrictions
on how many foreign-flag vessels may enter a Chinese port at one time and how
long those vessels must remain in quarantine for COVID continue to create
issues for exports. Reportedly, some vessel owners are hesitant to allow their
ships to be held up by Chinese quarantine rules and then face similar delays on
the Indian side of the trip.
While
this concern was raised in the last tender, sources said the owners just
increased their prices to accommodate any time at anchorage. Now, however, the
owners seem to be pushing back harder against having their vessels tied up
waiting to enter a port.
Sources
said the government is also keeping the threat of either export quotas or an
export duty hanging over the heads of the urea industry. The government has
made it clear to the urea producers that their first responsibility is to
ensure a plentiful supply of low-cost urea to farmers beginning Oct. 1. The
looming threat of some action to limit exports has led some suppliers to
withdraw their offers to traders for offshore sales. This move could add to a
reduction of available urea for the upcoming Indian tender.
The
price for prilled urea remains in the $420/mt FOB following some deals
concluded in late August and early September. Sources said some top-off
purchases of granular urea were concluded in the $430s/mt FOB. At the same
time, sources talked of reports of a granular sale to Australia with a netback
in the low-$430s/mt FOB.
Industry
sources were not able to name any specific buyers or traders who handled any of
these reported granular sales, however. The one exception is a report that a
sale to the West Coast of Mexico was done in September with a netback of
$425-$430/mt FOB. Sources said they could not find out any other details of the
deal.
September
production of urea is reportedly down from August. Government figures showed
that the daily production rate has dropped 10,000 mt since last month, to
135,000 mt.
Middle
East:
Sources
said price discussions in early September at $440/mt FOB are now being replaced
with higher price expectations. Sources reported that Sohar sold a November
cargo in the mid-$470s/mt FOB. The price fits with what industry watchers were
saying was happening in the market. The moves come as Egypt is showing prices
not seen since 2013, and as CIS urea availability is being reduced due to
higher production costs.
High
natural gas costs in Europe are causing more companies to think importing urea
is cheaper than producing it. As a result, inquiries are coming to every
producer in the region.So far, sources said Arab Gulf producers are
focusing on their contracts. At this point, that leaves little product for spot
deals or even for new contracts for prompt shipment.
Egyptian
producers MOPCO and AlexFert watched their prices go up dramatically all week.
Last week closed with September and October shipments at $475/mt FOB. This week
opened at $480/mt FOB and closed at $495/mt FOB. The price rise continued to $520/mt
FOB for November sales.
Shortly
after inking the deal for $520/mt FOB, MOPCO announced it would not make any
further November sales until it has had a chance to evaluate the market
situation.
The
rapid increase in the Egyptian price was attributed to European buyers looking
for material as high natural gas prices lead to possible closures of European
urea producers.The actual price for Egyptian urea has already surpassed
the paper market of $470/mt FOB for September and $480/mt FOB for October.
North
Africa:
Algeria’s
AOA has kept a close eye on the Egyptian deals and has altered their prices
accordingly. A November cargo was reportedly sold at $480/mt FOB, with
producers now looking at $500/mt FOB.
The
current price was backed up by reports that a sale to the U.S. for delivery to
NOLA was pegged at $535-$541/mt CFR, for a netback to Algeria of $485/mt FOB.
Black
Sea:
Rising
natural gas prices are forcing urea plants to shut down. Sources said the
shutdowns would eliminate a few cargoes of urea that would normally be a part
of any Indian urea tender, putting more pressure on the Arab Gulf and China to
supply the product.
One
industry observer noted that at the current cost of natural gas to the
Ukrainian producers, urea would have to be sold at $500/mt FOB from Yuzhnyy
just to break even. Even in a tight market, sources said that level is not
easily attained.
Russian
urea exports for January through July were down 5.7 percent, according to Trade Data Monitor, to 3.9 million mt from
4.1 million mt during the same period in 2020. Brazil took 726,000 mt, followed
by Finland at 505,000 mt. However, the Brazilian government reported imports
from Russia at 995,000 mt. Sources said about half of the tons sent to Finland
were then sent on to Brazil and some other Latin American buyers.
A
similar discrepancy showed up in the Russian numbers related to exports to
Switzerland. According to data released this week, Russia sent 358,000 mt to
Switzerland. However, the Swiss numbers for the same period showed Russian
imports of only 53,000 mt. The difference had some international sources scratching
their heads trying to figure out what Switzerland would do with so many tons of
urea.
American
purchases from Russia were up 52 percent in the January-July period, to 237,000
mt from 156,000 mt during the same period in 2020. July exports for 2021 were
reported at 499,000 mt, down 21.8 percent from 637,000 mt last year.
Brazil:
Uncertainties
related to when RCF will call its tender has the Brazilian market moving up. As
the week ended, deals at $540/mt CFR were closed in Paranagua for an October
cargo. Throughout the week, deals had been bouncing around $505-$510/mt CFR and
then suddenly jumped at the end.
The
higher prices were attributed to the loss of U.S. urea production related to
Hurricane Ida and rising prices out of North Africa, especially Algeria – a
regular Brazilian supplier – and Egypt. The expected loss of European production
due to higher natural gas costs, and a lack of clarity on how many tons China
will make available to the global market, were additional factors.
The
range in Rondonopolis widened to $605-$695/mt FOB ex-warehouse. The demand for
product stiffened as buyers looked for top-off tons before further possible
increases after the Indian tender.The barter rate in Sorriso is 87 bags
of corn for 1 mt urea. Last week the rate was 80 bags of corn.
The
PAU plant in Bolivia is expected to start sending tonnage to Brazil via truck
this month. Sources said the total tonnage expected to come to Brazil is about
200,000 mt. Reportedly, Swiss Singapore is handling the details for the sales
and transportation.The most likely destination for the urea will be the
state of Mato Grosso.
South
Korea:
Urea
imports for January through August were reported at 619,000 mt, down less than
1 percent from 624,000 mt during the same period last year, according to Trade Data Monitor. The main supplier
was China at 506,000 mt.
August
imports were up 34 percent, to 43,000 mt from 32,000 mt in August 2020. China
supplied the full amount this year.