US Gulf:
NOLA potash barges were called $390-$400/st FOB, up
from $380-$400/st FOB. An upriver barge was reportedly traded at $405/st FOB.
Eastern
Cornbelt:
Potash remained at $475-$510/st FOB in the Eastern
Cornbelt, with the upper end reported at Cincinnati for “very limited supply”
in early May.
Western
Cornbelt:
Potash was pegged at $450-$510/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, reported at the low end of the range. “The inland potash market is starting to give ground slightly, but for the most part remains flat,” reported one contact.
California:
Potash pricing was under pressure in California, with
new offers confirmed at $605-$615/st FOB/DEL in early May, down from the
previous $615-$645/st range.
Pacific
Northwest:
The potash market in the Pacific Northwest was pegged
as low as $525-$540/st FOB in early May, with reference pricing steady at
$560/st FOB/DEL for 60% MOP and $570/st FOB/DEL for 62% MOP.
The last potash postings FOB Moab and Wendover, Utah,
included $505/st
for 60% white standard and $515/st for 60% white granular.
Canpotex on May 3
reported a conveyor failure at the company’s 4 million mt/y Portland Bulk
Terminal, located in the port of Portland, Ore. The company said there were no
injuries or environmental impacts resulting from the incident.
Canpotex is assessing
the damage, and all potash loading at the terminal is curtailed until the
conveyor can be repaired. The company said it expects the impact to shipping
volumes to be largely mitigated by redirecting product to other ports in North
America. The additional cost of the incident is being assessed.
Western
Canada:
Potash pricing for truck tons at the mine in
Saskatchewan remained in the C$680-$695/mt FOB range, depending on grade.
India:
ICL Group has signed a new contract with IPL for
potash shipments through September 2023, the company confirmed in a May 1
statement. The contract matches the $422/mt CIFFO Indian ports price set last
month by Canpotex and Uralkali for tons shipped through Sept. 30, 2023 (GM April 7, p. 14).
There were reports last
month that ICL – as well as Arab Potash Co. (APC) – had reached a new supply
contract with India’s biggest potash importer (GM April 21, p. 14). APC as yet has to officially confirm it has
reached a new supply contract with its Indian customers.
ICL did not specify the
volumes agreed, but said they were “similar quantities” to those
supplied under the 2022 contract with IPL for the respective period. India
imported 316,616 mt of Israeli potash between April 1 and Sept. 30, 2022,
according to Trade Data Monitor. The contract is part of a renewed
five-year supply agreement with IPL for the years 2022-2027 that was signed in
March 2022 (GM March 25, 2022).
Despite the new contract signings, all purchases are
going “straight to ground” following a year of reduced potash applications.
As a result, inventories for potash in India remain depleted, said Mosaic
President and CEO Joc O’Rourke on a May 4 company earnings call.
O’Rourke also emphasized
to analysts that rather than India, it was suppliers – including Canpotex –
that drove the six-month contract, as opposed to the typical 12-month term.
“I don’t normally
speak for Canpotex, but I can tell you that we don’t think the fundamentals are
such that the price is still going to be $422/mt CFR come six months from now,
or at least we thought there was pretty good upside potential, ” said
O’Rourke.
He added that Indian
potash importers remain “a bit leery” regarding import volumes,
because there isn’t a subsidy guarantee for them. India’s NPK plants are taking
what they need, O’Rourke said, but described the purchases as
“hand-to-mouth” offtake.
Meanwhile, FACT on April
29 issued a tender for the purchase of 30,000 mt of standard potash, for
arrival at Tuticorin Port between June 25 and July 10. The tender closes on May
15, and offers are requested to remain valid for 15 days from date of tender
opening.
China:
China has sufficient
potash inventories to cover its short-term requirements, said Mosaic President
and CEO Joc O’Rourke on a May 4 earnings call. This is why China has not yet
agreed to new potash supply contracts with international suppliers in the wake
of India’s settlement, O’Rourke said.
Some 2 million mt of potash is now coming across
Kazakhstan from Belarus, O’Rourke added, while another 2 million-plus mt is
coming over the Urals from Uralkali and other Russian producers. In addition,
some 6 million mt of potash is being supplied by China’s domestic producer
Qinghai Salt Lake Potash, he said.
“So, China’s
seaborne potash requirements, while still there, are less than they were
before,” said O’Rourke. “We have to assess what the country’s 2
million mt of potash inventory really means, because I think it will last them
a little longer because they are getting their basic potash needs met.”
China will need seaborne
tons by about mid-year, O’Rourke assessed, while adding that the Chinese potash
contract is becoming less relevant to the international markets due to the
country’s reduced reliance on marine imports.
Brazil:
Prices ticked downward
to $370-$400/mt CFR. The softer shift was seen as a result of both continued
disinterest from buyers and a plentiful supply of product on hand.
Rondonopolis pricing
dropped slightly on the upper end of the range to $530-$540/mt FOB
ex-warehouse. Suppliers are competing with each other to reduce their
inventories, making the market favorable to buyers. Unfortunately for sellers,
demand remains light.
Thailand:
January-March potash
imports totaled 95,000 mt, according to Trade Data Monitor, a 44%
year-over-year decrease from 170,000 mt. March imports fell from the year-ago
107,000 mt, to 12,000 mt. Laos supplied 68% of the March product with 7,800 mt,
while Germany sent 2,700 mt.
