US Gulf:
After starting the week at $340/st FOB, NOLA barges soared to the $395-$405/st FOB range before trading up to $440-$450/st FOB later in the week. Sources reported $450/st as a common price on Thursday.
Good demand and fears of tight supplies were credited
with the uptick. Imports of urea were off 28.4% in the July-February fertilizer
year-to-date, to 2.61 million st from the year-ago 3.65 million st, while US
urea exports firmed 225.1%, to 1.11 million st from the prior-year 341,188 st.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Urea
pricing jumped to $480-$500/st FOB river terminals in the Eastern Cornbelt, up
from last week’s $425-$450/st range, with the low confirmed at Cincinnati,
Ohio, and Ottawa, Ill., at midweek. “Most sellers are indicating higher prices
to follow,” said one source.
Western Cornbelt:
Urea
rose to $460-$500/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, up from last week’s
$410-$430/st, with the upper end of the range reported at St. Louis, Mo.
“Inventories are starting to run out throughout St. Louis,” said one contact at
midweek.
Southern Plains:
The
urea market at Catoosa/Inola, Okla., moved from $460-$475/st FOB early in the
week to a high of $495-$500/st FOB by April 27, with prices at Houston, Texas,
moving from $445/st FOB on Monday to $470-$475/st FOB at midweek. The Borger,
Texas, market was also pegged at $475/st FOB during the week.
South Central:
Urea jumped to a broad $430-$495/st FOB South Central terminals,
up from last week’s $410-$430/st range, with the low confirmed at Convent, La.,
and the high at Little Rock, Ark. The Memphis, Tenn., market ranged from
$450-$485/st FOB, depending on time of the week, with Kentucky sources
reporting Ohio River terminals at the $480/st FOB level or higher.
Southeast:
Urea
started the week at $450/st FOB Wilmington, N.C., but sources said the price
had firmed to $480/st FOB at midweek with few tons to offer. Midweek offers at
Norfolk, Va., were quoted firmly at the $490/st FOB level. In the Northeast,
urea offers FOB Fairless Hills, Pa., firmed from $460/st on April 24 to $470/st
FOB at midweek.
India:
Reports are circulating
that some traders are still seeking tons to fulfill their awards under the
Indian Potash Ltd. (IPL) tender. The shipping deadline for the tender is June
1. Sources still expect to see another tender called in the second half of May,
most likely right after the IFA Annual Conference closes on May 24.
Urea imported during
January-February stood at 1.4 million mt, according to Trade Data Monitor,
off 31% year-over-year from 2.1 million mt.
February imports were
noted at 141,000 mt, down significantly from the year-ago 1.1 million mt.
India’s main suppliers were Oman with 88,000 mt, followed by Vietnam with
26,000 mt.
Black Sea:
Sources reported prilled
urea prices steady at $300-$305/mt FOB.
Indonesia:
A prompt 30,000 mt
purchase by Petronas of Malaysia lifted the granular export price to
$345-$350/mt FOB. Sources said the deal was a one-off needed to cover sales
promised from a Petronas plant that failed to come back online as planned.
The purchase is
reportedly for the Southeast Asian market. The buyer is said to be looking for
vessels to ship urea from Bontang to Thailand for late April or early May. Another
option is the product could head to Australia. Sources reported that Australian
buyers have been very active in spot market lately.
Prior to the sale, Pupuk
reportedly told sources they were sold out through mid-May, and would not be
offering more tons for sale until then. One trader noted that when asked what
prices Pupuk might target in its next set of tenders, agents for the producer
demurred.
Middle East:
Another deal from the
UAE shifted pricing. The sale, reported at $331.50/mt FOB, came one week after
Fertiglobe closed a deal at $330/mt FOB. While sources estimated the likely
range from the area at $330-$335/mt FOB with room for growth, concluded pricing
remained at $330-$332/mt FOB for now.
The urea market’s slow
upward movement has producers expecting better netbacks in the coming weeks. As
a result, producers were reportedly unwilling to commit to prices for
second-half May shipments.
The Egyptian price continued its climb. Kima reported
a sale of 10,000 mt of granular urea at $360/mt FOB, a $10/mt increase from
last week’s MOPCO sales. Sources said the price increase came on increased
interest in Egyptian material by potential US buyers.
As the week ended, MOPCO also closed a couple of
deals. Two lots of 6,000 mt each went to a trader at $362/mt FOB for first half
of May shipment. Another cargo of 5,000 mt sold for $365/mt FOB for shipment
next week.
US buyers were also said
to be eyeing tons from AOA in Algeria. The price from Algeria is now reportedly
pegged at $360-$365/mt FOB.
China:
The industry remained in
a holding position for the week, waiting to see if the rumored easing of export
regulations will take place on May 1. Until the announcement is made, sources
said that inquiries have slackened.
Any new business will be
difficult to conduct in the next week, even if the inspection process is
streamlined to allow for more exports. China will be essentially closed during
the week of May 1 to celebrate International Labor Day.
The potential price for
exported urea has come off, said sources. The weakening domestic market has
lowered the price to about $335-$340/mt ex-plant, translating to an estimated
export price of $350-$355/mt FOB. However, even lower prices are said to be
under discussion. Reportedly, Fudao is looking at selling tonnage in May at
$335-$340/mt FOB. The target market seems to be Latin America. No deals have
been concluded yet, but the new price should appear in May discussions.
First-quarter exports totaled 527,000 mt, according to
Trade Data Monitor, a 74% increase from 303,000 mt reported in
January-March 2023.
March exports, reported
at 120,000 mt, were nearly doubled from the year-ago 66,000 mt. The primary
buyers were South Korea with 28,000 mt, and Chile with 14,000 mt.
Brazil:
The landed price remained steady at $340-$350/mt CFR amid limited trading. Sources said the urea market’s main focus in the Americas has shifted to the rising NOLA market.
The Rondonopolis price
widened to $450-$480/mt FOB ex-warehouse, with the upper part of the range
moving up. Sources said aggressive sellers were pushing for $500/mt FOB
ex-warehouse, but were not able to close the deals. The rising inland price was
related to reports of limited availability, sources said.
Argentina:
Trade Data Monitor reported January-March urea imports at 29,000 mt, more than double the
year-ago 13,000 mt.
March imports stood at
16,000 mt, compared to the 12,000 mt recorded in March 2022., with 14,000 mt
coming from Turkmenistan. Argentina’s main urea buying season traditionally
begins in the second quarter, and extends through the third quarter before
waning again.