All posts by mickeybarb@charter.net

UAN

U.S. Gulf:

NOLA barge price ideas were put at around $300/st FOB ($9.38/unit) or higher, up from the earlier $280-$300/st FOB ($8.75-$9.38) range.

Eastern Cornbelt:

UAN-32 was unchanged at $315-$330/st ($9.84-$10.31/unit) FOB Illinois River terminals for April-June tons, depending on location and supplier, with the latest CF postings remaining at $325/st ($10.16/unit) FOB Mount Vernon, $327/st ($10.22/unit) FOB Cincinnati, and $345/st ($10.78/unit) FOB Burns Harbor, Ind.

The UAN-28 market was pegged at $293/st ($10.46/unit) FOB Toledo, Ohio, with Michigan terminal pricing reported in a broad $308-$338/st ($11.00-$12.07/unit) FOB range in late March, depending on location.

Western Cornbelt:

The UAN-32 market was unchanged at $325/st ($10.16/unit) FOB St. Louis, $330/st $10.31/unit) FOB Port Neal, $340/st ($10.63/unit) FOB Garner, Iowa, and $345/st ($10.78/unit) FOB Hastings, Neb.

In the Southern Plains, sources said only limited UAN-32 tons remain for April at the $335/st ($10.47/unit) level FOB Woodward, Okla., with May shipments now referenced at $350/st ($10.94/unit) FOB at that location.

Northern Plains:

The UAN-32 market was pegged at a firm $357/st ($11.16/unit) FOB Winona, Minn., in late March, with reports of limited UAN-28 tons offered at the $320/st ($11.43/unit) FOB level in central North Dakota.

Northeast:

Sources reported stronger UAN-32 pricing in the Northeast, with terminal prices climbing to $340-$350/st ($10.63-$10.94/unit) FOB Fairless Hills and Baltimore, Md., depending on time of shipment. Pricing out of terminals in upstate New York was quoted firmly at the $360/st ($11.25/unit) FOB level, up $60/st from early March.

Eastern Canada:

The UAN-28 market had reportedly firmed to C$394-$410/mt (C$14.07-$14.64/unit) FOB in Eastern Canada, up C$94-$108/mt from mid-February levels. UAN-32 pricing was also up C$106/mt from last report, to C$451/mt (C$14.09/unit) FOB in the Ontario market.

Ammonium Sulfate

U.S. Gulf:

The ammonium sulfate barge market was called $230-$240/st FOB, up from the week-ago $225-$240/st FOB. Interoceanic (IOC) reposted NOLA at $275/st FOB on March 24, up from $240/st FOB.

Eastern Cornbelt:

AdvanSix on March 25 reported that it was increasing the price of granular ammonium sulfate to $275/st FOB Hopewell, Va., up $10/st from the previous posting, while prices at all other distribution points in the company’s system would move up $25/st, effective immediately. Based on the company’s last postings on March 1, the new levels include $295/st FOB Granite City, Ill., $300/st FOB Prairie du Chien, Wisc., $305/st FOB Amherst Junction, Wisc., and $310/st rail-DEL in Illinois and Wisconsin.

IOC on March 24 also announced another price increase for PCI Nitrogen’s granular ammonium sulfate, with new prices firming to $300/st FOB Illinois and Ohio River terminals.

Prior to the posting hikes, sources quoted the low end of the regional ammonium sulfate market at $265/st FOB out of spot Illinois and Ohio River terminals.

Western Cornbelt:

Ammonium sulfate prices were reported at $255-$265/st FOB St. Louis and other river terminals early in the week, but Iowa sources reported new levels up to $300/st FOB on March 25.

IOC on March 24 raised its granular ammonium sulfate prices to $295/st FOB St. Louis and Delta terminals and $310/st FOB Sioux City, Iowa. The company’s new postings in the Southern Plains included $275/st FOB Houston, Texas, and $315/st rail-DEL. AdvanSix followed with a $25/st price increase of its own on March 25, which pushed granular postings up to $305/st FOB Sioux City and $310/st rail-DEL in Iowa.

Northern Plains:

The granular ammonium sulfate market remained at $250-$260/st FOB St. Paul early in the week, with delivered tons ranging from $275-$295/st in North Dakota, depending on time of shipment. Sources reported higher postings from AdvanSix on March 25, however, with granular ammonium sulfate firming $25/st to $300/st FOB Winona and Brooten, Minn., and $310/st rail-DEL in Minnesota.

IOC also raised its granular ammonium sulfate postings on March 24, to $300/st FOB Upper Mississippi River terminals and $325/st rail-DEL in the Northern Plains.

Northeast:

The granular ammonium sulfate market firmed to $275/st FOB Hopewell, Va., on March 25, with the East Liverpool, Ohio, market quoted at the $300/st FOB level. Delivered tons were reported at $285-$310/st in the Northeast, up $10-$25/st from last report.

Eastern Canada:

The granular ammonium sulfate market was quoted at C$407-$450/mt FOB in Eastern Canada as of midweek, depending on location, but a posted producer increase pushed the upper end of the range to C$465/mt FOB on March 25.

China:

Sources reported at least one ammonium sulfate sale in Southeast Asia that showed a netback of $165/mt FOB. Other deals, said traders, put the price range at $160-$165/mt FOB. Producers continue to push for higher prices, with some calling the market $165-$170/mt FOB, but without being able to point to specific sales to back up their claims.

Exports from China in the first two months of the year were pegged at 1.3 million mt, according to Trade Data Monitor. This compares with 975,000 mt exported during the same period last year.February exports were at 646,000 mt compared to 348,000 mt in February 2020.

Brazil:

Sources reported limited ammonium sulfate business, with prices edging up to $210-$225/mt CFR.

International sources were not surprised to see the pricing movement in Brazil. They said the Brazilians are being hit by a double whammy of rising prices out of China and higher freight rates. Sources said Brazilian buyers should expect to see more price increases in the near future.

Limited business in Rondonopolis pegged the inland price at $290-$340/mt FOB ex-warehouse. This level is in line with the selling price in Paranagua, where ammonium sulfate is pegged at $285/mt FOB after it clears Brazilian customs.The barter rate in Mato Grosso is pegged at 39 bags of corn for 1 mt of ammonium sulfate.

DAP/MAP

Central Florida:

Central Florida DAP trucks were posted at $550/st FOB, steady from week-ago levels. Truck-loaded MAP was pegged at $565-$580/st FOB, with sources reporting limited availability at the lower end of the spread.

U.S. Gulf:

A quiet week was reported for the NOLA barge phosphate market, with market players noting softening values.

Nearby DAP barge trades were heard slipping to $540/st FOB from the week-ago $545/st FOB high, while the market’s floor was typically noted at $535/st FOB. Domestic tons loading in April or May continued to be offered at $545/st FOB, with sources reporting interest for the April loading window at $535/st FOB.

MAP barges saw a larger drop, with tons reported changing hands down to $564/st FOB, falling from the previous $575/st FOB bottom. Sales and offers were typically heard up to $575/st FOB, falling from $590/st FOB at last report.

DAP barges loading from NOLA were reported in the $535-$540/st FOB range, slipping from $535-$545/st FOB in the prior report. Sources quoted nearby MAP barges at $564-$575/st FOB, down from the week-ago $575-$590/st FOB.

U.S. Exports:

No new business was reported in the Gulf export phosphate markets. Last-done was reported to include a 7,000 mt DAP cargo priced at $580/mt FOB. With nothing new heard on the market, prices continued to be noted at $580/mt FOB.

Eastern Cornbelt:

DAP pricing edged up to $575-$585/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low reported at Cincinnati and LaSalle, Ill. The MAP market was pegged at $600-$635/st FOB in the region, with the low at Ottawa.

Sources reported tight inventories out of Michigan warehouses, with DAP reported at a firm $600/st FOB and MAP at $620-$640/st FOB, where available. One source said Webberville has been out of MAP for two weeks, and DAP supplies there are now out as well and may not be restocked until late April.

Western Cornbelt:

DAP pricing firmed slightly to $570-$585/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low reported at St. Louis and the upper end at Dubuque, Iowa. MAP was quoted at $620-$630/st FOB in the region, with the low again confirmed at St. Louis. The market FOB Catoosa/Inola, Okla., was reported at $565-$580/st for DAP and $625-$640/st for MAP.

Northern Plains:

DAP pricing FOB St. Paul was reported at $575-$585/st FOB in late March, with MAP quoted in the $625-$645/st range FOB St. Paul. Delivered MAP in western North Dakota was pegged in the $670-$680/st range from Western U.S. shipping points.

Northeast:

DAP pricing was quoted at $595/st FOB East Liverpool in late March, up $10/st from last report. MAP was pegged at $620/st FOB Fairless Hills for March tons and $625/st FOB for April-June, up roughly $5/st.

Eastern Canada:

MAP was quoted at C$725-$785/mt FOB in Eastern Canada, up roughly C$46/mt on average from mid-February. DAP pricing FOB Montreal was reported at a firm C$785/mt FOB in late March, reflecting a C$109/mt increase.

Saudi Arabia:

Saudi Arabia phosphate levels were noted firming to the $485-$560/mt FOB range in recent trading, with most business pushing toward the upper side of the spread.

China:

Sources reported softening DAP prices as the domestic season ends and buyers become more aggressive in demanding lower prices. Small cargoes sold to buyers in Southeast Asia now put the netback to China at $555-$560/mt FOB. Sensing a softening market, more buyers are bidding at $540/mt FOB, but with no success.

Producers are complaining about the pressure being put on them by the downturn. They note that prices for their raw materials – phos rock, ammonia, and sulfur – are not coming down.

Exports of DAP were up in the first two months of the year, at 399,000 mt versus 262,000 mt in the same period last year, according to Trade Data Monitor. The two big buyers in January and February were Vietnam at 68,000 mt and Japan at 67,000 mt. New Zealand and Bangladesh each took 40,000 mt during the period.

China DAP Exports
Partner Country February (mt)
2019 2020 2021
World 330,262 119,048 279,180
Japan 27,564 28,505  42,002
Vietnam 16,296 18,520 40,923
New Zealand 23,111 14,101 40,230
Bangladesh     39,544
Australia 90 10,318 37,742

Normally, India is a large buyer of DAP from China, but the country only bought a token amount in January and February, compared with 44,000 mt. last year. The limited sales to India dramatically showed the disagreement between the two countries as Indian buyers kept demanding lower prices from Chinese producers, and the producers refused.

India:

A sale of DAP to an Indian buyer from Saudi Arabia has a reported price of $515/mt CFR. The purchase showed a continued acceptance of higher prices in the DAP market, something Indian buyers had been fighting for several months.

Buyers are reportedly taking a break from negotiations as they wait for the government to announce if there will be any changes to the maximum allowed retail price of DAP. Importers and domestic producers have been arguing for a higher price. Importers have been pointing to the strong global market, while domestic producers point to the rising cost of inputs, including sulfur and phos acid.

Brazil:

Sellers keep arguing for higher MAP prices in the $628-$630/mt CFR range – and keep getting turned down. Sources peg the Paranagua landed price at $590-$610/mt CFR, representing a continued retreat on pricing.

Rondonopolis prices, however, have moved up as material remains difficult to find. Sources put the market at $740-$770/mt FOB ex-warehouse. The Mato Grosso barter rate for 1 mt of MAP is still at 75 bags of corn. At Goitatuba, the barter rate is reported at 32.5 bags of corn or 32.5 bags of soybeans for 1 mt of MAP.

Phosphoric Acid

Eastern Cornbelt:

Phos acid pricing remained at $12.95-$13.10/unit rail-DEL in the Eastern Cornbelt for March tons, with the low reported in Illinois and the high in Ohio.

Western Cornbelt:

Phos acid pricing was unchanged at $12.85/unit rail-DEL in Nebraska, Missouri, and Iowa for March tons.

Northern Plains:

The phos acid market remained at $12.95/unit rail-DEL in Minnesota and $13.10/unit rail-DEL in the Dakotas for March tons.

India:

Phosphoric acid shipped to India was contracted at $795/mt P2O5 CFR for first-quarter delivery, rising $106/mt from $689/mt CFR in the prior period. Sources noted second-quarter offers from Moroccan producer OCP pushing as high as $900/mt P2O5 CFR.

Ammonium Polyphosphate

Eastern Cornbelt:

10-34-0 pricing was steady at $550-$570/st FOB in the region, with the low confirmed at Cincinnati for March offers.

Western Cornbelt:

The 10-34-0 market was pegged $545-$565/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low in Nebraska and the high in Iowa.

Northern Plains:

10-34-0 pricing was up in the Northern Plains, to $580-$600/st FOB or DEL in late March, with the upper end of the range reported in the North Dakota market.

Northeast:

The 10-34-0- market in upstate New York strengthened to $570/st FOB, up another $10/st from last report.

Potash

U.S. Gulf:

New potash barge trades were put in the $310-$318/st FOB range, down from the week-ago $315-$320/st FOB.

Eastern Cornbelt:

Potash pricing was steady at $355-$375/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, depending on location and time of shipment, with the Cincinnati and Ottawa markets reported at the $360-$365/st FOB level in late March.

The market out of Michigan warehouses was reported at $370-$385/st FOB for red potash and $379/st FOB Essexville and Webberville for white tons.

Western Cornbelt:

The potash market remained at $355-$375/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the high reported in Iowa. Sources quoted the St. Louis market at $360-$365/st FOB in late March.

Northern Plains:

Sources quoted the potash market at $355/st FOB St. Paul at the low end of the range, with producer postings at the $375/st FOB level for spring tons. The market to U.S. buyers FOB Saskatchewan mines remained at a firm $330-$340/st after netbacks, depending on grade.

Northeast:

Potash pricing for prompt and Q2 shipments was quoted at $360/st FOB Fairless Hills as of March 22. Rail-DEL tons were pegged in the $385-$395/st range in the Northeast.

Eastern Canada:

Sources reported the potash market at a firm C$545/mt FOB regional warehouses in Eastern Canada in late March.

Russia:

Russianpotash exports in January were reported at 1.02 million mt, up from 916,728 mt in December and significantly higher than the January 2020 total of 108,494 mt, according to Trade Data Monitor.

The lower export volume in January last year could reflect Uralkali’s cutback of potash production in the second half of 2019 due to the prevailing market downturn, as well as scheduled maintenance activities that required temporary shutdown of certain production facilities. The producer had expected to reduce total output by approximately 350,000-500,000 mt during the last half of 2019 (GM Sept. 20, 2019).

Brazil:

Potash demand seems to be waning in Brazil, but the price is rising. Sources put the landed price at Paranagua at $325-$340/mt CFR, with producers arguing for the higher end of the range. The Rondonopolis warehouse price has tightened at $380-$433/mt FOB ex-warehouse.

The barter rate for 1 mt of MOP at Mato Gross remains at 54.5 bags of corn and 21 bags of soybeans. The Goitatuba barter rate is pegged at 1 mt of MOP for 18.9 bags of soybeans or 31 bags of corn.

China:

Potash imports were marginally up in the first two months of the year compared to the same period last year. According to Trade Data Monitor, China imported 1.5 million mt of MOP in January and February of this year, compared with 1.4 million mt last year.

Russia was the main supplier so far this year at 468,000 mt, followed by Canada at 336,000 mt, and Belarus at 315,000 mt. February 2021 imports were at 602,000 mt, compared with 488,000 mt in February 2020.

Partner Country January-February (mt)
2020 2021
World 1,391,688 1,459,356
Russia 468,043 468,080
Canada 678,874 335,668
Belarus 135,321 315,116
Israel 139,245
Jordan 109,450 133,090
Laos   62,971

Sulfur

Tampa:

Based both on tight domestic supply and large price increases from key international markets, sources continued to predict an upward move in the second-quarter price of molten sulfur delivered to Tampa. Some players speculated that values could jump by $80/st, an 83.3 percent increase over the first-quarter’s $96/lt CFR contract.

Domestic refinery utilization pushed higher for the week, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported, extending a rebound from recent lows resulting from the February polar vortex. Refiners operated at a total 81.6 percent capacity for the period ending March 19, a 5.5-point increase from 76.1 percent reported previously. The rate continued to trail both the year-ago 86.3 percent and the 87.4 percent five-year average, however.

Crude inputs also moved higher, topping the 14 million barrel/d mark for the first time since Feb. 12. Inputs were logged at an average 14.389 million barrels/d for the week, up 956,000 barrel/d from the 13.433 million barrels/d rate posted previously.

U.S. Gulf:

Genscape reported ongoing unit ramp-ups at the Royal Dutch Shell Plc refinery in Deer Park, Texas, one of the last Texas refineries to attempt a restart following damage sustained during the February cold snap.

A 39,000 barrel/d hydrotreater was noted restarting on March 19, while other units, including a 70,000 barrel/d fluidic catalytic cracking unit (FCC) and a 67,000 barrel/d hydrocracker, were seen slowly moving closer to a restart. The hydrocracker was reportedly nearing operational levels on March 22.

The final Texas plant to restart, Chevron’s Pasadena unit, was reported ramping up on March 24. Increased activity was observed at a 116,000 barrel/d crude distillation unit (CDU), a 56,000 barrel/d FCC, and a 35,000 barrel/d hydrotreater. Activity nevertheless remained below operational levels on March 24, Genscape noted.

Marathon shut the 243,000 barrel/d Pipestill 3B crude section on March 23 at the company’s Galveston Bay, Texas, plant.

Price ideas on sulfur loading from the U.S. Gulf were heard in the $175-$180/mt FOB range, based on recent business reported out of Brazil.

Brazil:

Brazil state-owned oil company Petroleo Brasileiro SA (Petrobras) on March 24 announced the signing of contracts in the sale of its RLAM refinery to Mubadala Capital for $1.65 billion, Reuters reported.

The sale to the Abu Dhabi-based Mubadala was announced in February, and still awaits approval from Brazil’s Administrative Council for Economic Defense (CADE) regulatory body. In an effort to reduce debt, Petrobras has announced an intent to sell eight refineries from its portfolio.

Last-done sulfur imports at Brazil continued to be heard at $216/mt CFR, steady from the prior report.

Vancouver:

Last-done out of Vancouver continued to be heard in the $175-$183/mt FOB range. Falling values at China could translate to $170-$180/mt CFR values at Vancouver in the next round of business, sources warned, should China fail to rebound.

Alberta:

Prilled and molten sulfur originating from Alberta netted back (-)$31-$113/mt FOB to sellers, steady from one week earlier.

West Coast:

Prills loading from the West Coast were expected to fall in the $175-$183/mt FOB range, unmoved from the prior report. West Coast molten contracts were quoted at $70-$77/lt FOB for delivery in the first quarter. Values are expected to rise in Q2.

China:

Refinery output at China was up 15 percent year-over-year in the January-February period, according to data released by the China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and reported by Reuters.

Throughput was noted at an average 14.13 million barrel/s for the period, roughly equal to December 2020, but rising from 12.07 million barrels/d in January-February 2020. The NBS typically releases combined numbers for the first two months of the year due to China’s Lunar New Year holiday, the largest national holiday of the year.

Outputs were projected to decline in the March-June period, however, likely slipping below the 13.5 million barrel/d mark due to planned turnarounds.

At least seven refineries were scheduled to go offline starting in the first quarter, Platts reported, including Sinopec’s Changling Petrochemical, Jinan Petrochemical, Jinling Petrochemical, and Jiujiang Petrochemical. The Huizhou refinery, owned by CNOOC, reportedly shut down on March 4, while Sinopec’s Cangzhou Petrochemical and two PetroChina facilities were expected to power down in May.

Run rates for China state-owned refineries were noted averaging 82.8 percent in February, rising from 80.3 percent in January and up from the year-ago 66.4 percent. Additional data reported by Platts saw run rates slip to 78.8 percent in March.

Spot prices for solid sulfur imported to China were heard softening to the $190s/mt CFR, off from $200-$210/mt CFR noted previously. Sources were divided on whether the market’s softening represented a new ceiling in the China sulfur price, or merely a period of consolidation prefacing a renewed bull run.

ADNOC:

March prill prices were noted at $183/mt FOB Ruwais, $55/mt above February’s $128/mt FOB level.

Qatar:

March offers from Muntajat were quoted at $183/mt FOB Ras Laffan, rising $58/mt from $125/mt FOB in February.

Sulfuric Acid

U.S. Gulf:

With import demand limited by low domestic contract pricing, sources expected few spot imports to the U.S. Gulf in the near term. Based on recent business into Brazil, price ideas in the Gulf were reported in the $130-$135/mt CFR range, unmoved from the prior report.

Gulf Coast:

Gulf Coast delivered tons were contracted at $85-$110/st DEL for 2021. Sources put the Lower Atlantic market at $90-$110/st DEL.

Midwest:

Midwest values were quoted on par with the Gulf Coast at $85-$110/st DEL.

West Coast:

West Coast contracts for 2021 fulfillment continued to be quoted in the $110-$130/st DEL range.

Brazil:

Brazil-bound material was last reported at $135-$140/mt CFR, unmoved from one week earlier.

China:

Copper smelters worldwide are seeing a sharp drop in treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs), the rate miners pay to smelters for processing raw ore, Reuters reported. Recent spot TC/RCs at China were seen softening to $33.50/mt, the lowest level since October 2010 and off from the China Smelter Purchase Team’s first-quarter $53/mt floor.

Rates were even lower in South America, with a 10,000 mt April tender reportedly awarded below $20/mt. A second recent South American tender was noted at $19/mt.

The falling rates were attributed to tightening copper supply, responsible for pushing pricing to a 10-year high in February. Smelting margins were projected to tighten as a result of the falling TC/RCs, potentially incentivizing reduced metal and sulfuric acid outputs, sources said.