US Gulf:
NOLA barge trades were
put in the $305-$327/st FOB range, narrowing from the week-ago $300-$335/st
FOB. While early-week business suggested an increase for the week, $305-$310/st
FOB trades reported later in the week lowered the average.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Urea
was unchanged at $370-$390/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the high out of
inland terminals and the low confirmed at Cincinnati, Ohio, and out of Illinois
River terminals.
Western Cornbelt:
Urea
was quoted at $365-$390/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, up slightly from last
week, with the St. Louis, Mo., market pegged in the $365-$380/st FOB range. In
the Northern Plains, the St. Paul, Minn., urea market edged up to $365-$385/st
FOB with delivered tons reported in the $450-$470/st range in North Dakota.
California:
While reference pricing
for bulk urea at Stockton, Calif., remained at the $650/st FOB mark, sources
said $600/st FOB deals were possible at the port. Northern California sources
reported recent rail-DEL urea offers at the $500/st level.
Pacific Northwest:
Urea was under pressure in the Pacific Northwest. The latest
offers FOB Rivergate, Ore., were pegged at the $460/st FOB level, down from
$500/st FOB, with the Aurora, Ore., price reported at $465/st FOB. Rail-DEL
pricing was quoted in the $450-$475/st range, with the high in Montana.
Western Canada:
Urea
pricing in Western Canada slipped to C$630-$640/mt FOB and C$670-$680/mt DEL,
down from the last-confirmed C$640-$720/mt FOB and C$665-$730/mt DEL ranges.
India:
Conflicting rumors
circulated about when the next urea tender might take place. India’s fertilizer
minister said the country will not need to buy urea on the spot market for the
upcoming Kharif season, leading some to question if a new tender would even be
held.
A few traders argued
that it would make sense for India to call a tender in April to take advantage
of the softening market. However, the bulk of sources said that by waiting
until the end of May, when many had previously expected the next tender, India
could push the price down even further.
The announcement by the fertilizer minister caused
some concern. The minister told reporters that India had sufficient stockpiles
on hand, and that with the anticipated volume of local production the country
could handle the expected demand for urea and other nutrients until at least
November.
The reserves the
minister was counting on included the 1.1 million mt secured in the last
tender, none of which has yet been delivered to India. He was also including
contracted cargoes, such as the deal with OMIFCO to supply about 1 million
mt/year in monthly shipments, in his tally.
India imported a total
of 10 million mt of urea during 2022, according to Trade Data Monitor.
Even with the higher prices the country was forced to pay due both to the war
in Ukraine and China’s restrictions on exports, the total was higher than in
2021.
|
Calendar-Year India Urea Imports mt
|
|
2016
|
2017
|
2018
|
2019
|
2020
|
2021
|
2022
|
|
7,086,084
|
5,945,111
|
5,465,686
|
11,196,083
|
11,152,615
|
8,112,989
|
10,101,039
|
In a separate announcement,
government officials told local media that while less money was allocated for
fertilizer subsidies in the upcoming fiscal-year budget, the government will
not raise the price of subsidized urea. The price will remain at Rs242 per
45-kg bag ($65/mt).
Trade Data Monitor put January imports at 1.35 million mt, a roughly 35%
increase from the year-ago 967,000 mt. China led suppliers with 254,000 mt,
followed by Oman with 236,000 mt. Russia sent 173,000 mt, while an additional
153,000 mt was recorded coming from Finland. Sources speculated that the
Finnish tons represented Russian material transported through Finland.
Black Sea:
Sources in Asia
estimated the price of Russian urea out of the Black Sea at $265-$270/mt FOB.
Indonesia:
The Pupuk/Kaltim tender
from mid-March ended with bids for granular urea at $315-$330/mt FOB. In the
end, however, the final sales came at $342/mt FOB, matching the bids for
prilled urea.
Sources said a $315/mt
FOB bid from Samsung only applied to a small volume of top-off tons, while
Kaltim was reportedly more interested in moving at least 30,000 mt. When the
producer sent out counters to the bids, sources said the company skipped over
Samsung and went straight to Aries, which had bid $331/mt FOB for 30,000 mt.
Kaltim used the high prilled bid of $342/mt FOB as its floor for the granular
product.
At least one cargo was
purchased at $342/mt FOB, only a slight drop from the previous sale at $349/mt
FOB. Sources also reported four cargoes of prilled urea secured at $342/mt FOB.
All of the tonnage was slated to ship in April.
Middle East:
Sources reported prices
out of the Arab Gulf at $300-$305/mt FOB on deals signed by Oman.
Players expected the
Arab Gulf price to keep falling after India made clear that it would buy just
1.1 million mt in its recent tender, as the market had been expecting India to
take 1.5-2 million mt. Because of the Indian action, the market’s psychology
has shifted to expect building reserves and few buyers.
There are reports that
some cargoes from the Arab Gulf are heading to China. The product, said one
source, is most likely for re-export. With a landed price of $340/mt FOB, the
material is too expensive for the Indian tender, but within the market range
for buyers in Southeast Asia. The landed price is lower than the current
estimated price for Chinese product exports, and dramatically lower than the
Chinese domestic price.
Egyptian producers are
reportedly ready to accept $350/mt FOB for their product. Sources said the lack
of buying interest out of Europe and a generally soft global market gives
producers no other choice but to come down from their higher-pricing ideas. If
the expected price is achieved, it would represent a drop of $20-$25/mt from
the last-done business out of Egypt.
Sources reported that
Algerian producers were also ready to accept the $350/mt FOB price, confirming
the softer prices from North Africa.
China:
Sources reported the
domestic China market at $410-$415/mt ex-plant. At the same time, traders are
quoting export prices at $370-$380/mt FOB.
The current pricing in
China will exclude any Chinese product from supporting awards from the Indian
urea tender. Going into the tender, sources were expecting to see at least a
couple of cargoes from China in the offerings. The only sales coming out of
China are reportedly small lots to regional buyers.
China is reluctant to
export urea while the domestic season is still in full swing. Sources estimate
the season will end in late April. At that point, said one trader, the excess
urea built up by the government’s restrictive export policy will exert a great
deal of downward pressure on prices.
Sources reported that
material from the Arab Gulf is heading to China for $340/mt CFR. The material
is expected to be re-exported to cover the demand of regional Southeast Asian
buyers. These shipments are in addition to the Russian cargoes reported en
route to China earlier in March.
January-February urea
exports totaled 407,000 mt, Trade Data Monitor reported, a 72% increase
from the year-ago 237,000 mt.
February 2023 exports
were 166,000 mt, up 9% from 152,000 mt exported in February 2022. Mexico
received 47,000 mt, South Korea bought 29,000 mt, and Chile took another 22,000
mt.
Brazil:
Traders keep saying the
price floor has been hit. At the same time, the price keeps falling. Sources
reported a slight dip to $310-$320/mt CFR, a price that some players said looks
close to a positive barter ratio, which could lead to additional deals being
cut in the near future.
The Rondonopolis price
was down to $460-$490/mt FOB ex-warehouse. Weak buying demand provided a steady
downward push on prices, and sources reported a strong reluctance to buy any
material until absolutely needed. Buyers are reportedly unwilling to close any
long-term deals because of an underlying expectation that the price will continue
to drift downward.
The upper end of the
Rondonopolis price range is tied to financing long-term purchases, such as
those for September-November deliveries. The lower end of the range came from
aggressive buyers looking to procure tons for immediate delivery.
Poland:
Grupa Azoty on March 17
reduced prices on nitrogen and compound fertilizers sold through its authorized
distribution network, “adjusting them to the current market
conditions,” the company said. Azoty did not disclose the size of the
reduction, only describing prices as “significantly lower.”
The company previously
reduced prices by 20-30% on Feb. 1 (GM
Feb. 3, p. 4). Azoty also cut prices by about Pln1,000/mt ($231/mt) last
October.