US Gulf/Tampa:
After a 25% drop
in Tampa ammonia prices from February’s $790/mt CFR to $590/mt CFR in March,
prices remain under pressure, with sources continuing to cite low natural gas
prices in Europe and the US.
Eastern Cornbelt:
The ammonia market remained at
$840-$850/st FOB for spring tons in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low reported
in Illinois and the high in Indiana and at Lima, Ohio. “They haven’t
adjusted since the Tampa drop and they may wait until closer to in-season to do
it, but I do not see an $8 in front of it when they do adjust,” commented one
regional source.
Western Cornbelt:
The ammonia market
continued to be quoted in the $725-$840/st FOB range in the Western Cornbelt,
with the low at Palmyra, Mo., and Wever, Iowa, and the high in eastern Iowa.
Other spot terminal prices in early March included $750/st FOB Hermann, Mo.,
$775/st FOB Hoag, Neb., and $780/st FOB Fort Dodge, Iowa.
New ammonia offers
out of Oklahoma production points slipped to $600-$625/st FOB, down from
$610-$650/st, with the low reported at Woodward and Enid and the high at
Verdigris. Pricing for truck tons out of Gulf Coast terminals dropped to
$525-$540/st FOB in the wake of the March Tampa settlement, down from
$675-$700/st FOB.
California:
The anhydrous ammonia market dropped to $980/st DEL in California, down from the previous $1,250/st DEL level. Aqua ammonia was also lower, falling to $259/st FOB Stockton and $269/st FOB Sycamore, well below the previous $326/st FOB and $336/st FOB levels, respectively.
Pacific Northwest:
New offers for ammonia
were reported at $730-$775/st DEL in the Pacific Northwest, well below the
previous $850-$858/st DEL range. Pricing out of Washington terminals slipped to
$730/st FOB, down from the prior $915/st FOB level.
Aqua ammonia fell
to $190/st FOB in the region, down from $235/st FOB.
Western Canada:
The latest offers
for spring ammonia in Western Canada fell to C$1,100-$1,300/mt FOB for
April-June shipments, depending on location, down sharply from the last
confirmed C$1,475-$1,640/mt DEL range.
Black Sea:
If all goes
according to plan, the first Russian ammonia export facility will open at Taman
in December 2023. According to Tass, the facility will initially move 2
million mt/y of ammonia, with expansion to take the total to 5 million mt/y by
December 2025.
No Russian ammonia
has been shipped out of the Black Sea since the pipeline to Odessa was closed
due to the war in Ukraine. Recent efforts by the Russians to reopen the
pipeline, part of a deal brokered by Turkey and the United Nations to move out
Ukrainian grain, have failed. Industry sources said the pipeline was located in
an active war zone and depended on power from facilities under regular Russian
attacks.
The new facility
is being built by Togliattiazot, a subsidiary of Uralchem. Industry sources said
that some storage tanks have already been built at the site, along with an
extension of the jetty to deal with shallow waters in the area.
The ammonia will
be sent to the port by rail. International sources noted that the rail line to
the port is already overtaxed with shipments of LNG and dry commodities. One
trader said that unless the plans also call for upgrading and expanding the
rail connection to the port, it is unlikely the facility will achieve its
export goals before its own self-imposed deadline of the end of the year.
Once open, the
port will provide the first opportunity to move out ammonia since the war began
one year ago. Sources said the vessels using the port will be able to avoid the
current war zone along the Ukrainian coast, should the conflict stretch out
through a second year.
At the same time
as the port expansion announcement, Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov said
that Russia may not allow for an extension of the deal that allows for the free
passage of Ukrainian grains, currently set to end on March 18. Lavrov said that
Russia would not extend the agreement unless the movement of Russian grains and
fertilizers are better addressed.
While Russian and
Ukrainian grain has moved out under the deal, Russia began calling for ammonia
to be included in the agreement in fourth-quarter 2022. The dangers of opening
the pipeline from the Russian border to Odessa were pointed out by most in the
ammonia industry, and sources expect that ammonia will not be included in the
renewed agreement.
Since the
beginning of the war, the Black Sea’s primary use has been to move ammonia to
western buyers such as Turkey. Sources reported a sale into Turkey at
$550-$570/mt CFR, representing a confirmation of $550/mt CFR prices first
reported at the end of February. The tonnage is reportedly coming from North
African suppliers.
India:
Demand for ammonia
remains limited because several major DAP producers are taking routine
turnarounds at their plants. However, even as discussions for future tons
progress, buyers are pushing for $600/mt CFR and lower, while sellers are
trying to hold on to current levels in the $650s/mt CFR.
Limited imports
are expected through March while the plants remain down, although April should
see a step up in ammonia vessel arrivals. The bulk of the ammonia coming into
India is under long-term contracts, with prices called dramatically lower than
the public prices achieved under spot deals.
Ammonia imports totaled 2.2 million mt in 2022, Trade Data Monitor reported, about 8.5% below 2.4 million mt imported in 2021. Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Indonesia, and Bahrain accounted for about 80% of the imports. Saudi Arabia sent 930,000 mt to India in 2022, a 110% increase from 444,000 mt in 2021.
December imports
were reported at 650,000 mt, up 7% from 608,000 mt in December 2021. Saudi
Arabia accounted for one-third of the imports with 228,000 mt, followed by
Qatar with 93,000 mt.
Middle East:
Sources said that
Arab Gulf netbacks from deals into India put the market at $580/mt FOB, but
noted that no one is offering that amount. Buyers are pushing for $600/mt FOB
but getting nowhere. The last-done spot price is still at $610-$620/mt FOB.
Traders said the
producers will eventually have to succumb to lower prices, as producers are
facing growing inventories at their plant storage facilities. Sources said that
a lack of demand and falling global ammonia market prices have buyers holding
back on purchases until the tonnage is needed.
Northwest Europe:
Despite any new
spot deals in Northwest Europe, sources said the price should be pegged at
$600-$620/mt CFR based on the Tampa price. Even with the shift downward,
traders said that price is still too high. There are already expectations that
Tampa could drop another $100/mt or so in April.
The ammonia
production cost is now estimated at $500-$550/mt ex-plant, with every
indication of further reductions coming. Sources pointed to falling natural gas
prices and ongoing limited demand for ammonia as the main reasons for the
continued bearish mood on pricing.
The industry came
out of the winter season in better shape than anticipated, bucking concerns
that natural gas prices would spike and remain high after supplies were cut off
from Russia. European countries engaged in aggressive reserve-building to ease
the pain on gas users during the winter. A mild winter, however, showed that
countries did not need as much of the product as believed for home heating, and
the surplus gas is now being made available to the industry at ever-reducing
rates.
Asia:
Chinese exports of
ammonia are expected to ease off as the global price falls. Buyers as far away
as North Africa and Northwest Europe are unlikely to find the Chinese material
competitive as prices fall west of Suez. Even smaller regional buyers such as South
Korea and Taiwan may soon find they no longer have Chinese ammonia to play
against Indonesian or Middle Eastern product.
Indonesian ammonia exports for January were pegged at 140,000 mt, Trade Data Monitor reported, off 24% from the year-ago 184,000 mt. The main buyers were all regional players, indicating the January price was already too high for shipment to Morocco and Northwest Europe. South Korea dominated the purchases with 83,000 mt, for 59% of the Indonesian exports, while China, Japan, and Taiwan combined to take another 35% of the exports.