All posts by webster@kennedyinfo.com

Urea

Bangladesh, Black Sea, China, Eastern Cornbelt, India, Indonesia, Market Watch, Middle East, Pacific N.W., Pakistan, Southeast, Southern Plains, U.S. Gulf, Urea, Western Cornbelt

U.S. Gulf: Prompt granular business began the week at $430/st FOB and worked its way up to $445-$450/st FOB by week’s end. Sources were quoting $455/st FOB for August. Prills were in a tighter range at $445-$455/st FOB.

Eastern Cornbelt: The granular urea market in the Eastern Cornbelt was quoted at $485-$515/st FOB regional terminals.

Western Cornbelt: Granular urea remained at $485-$500/st FOB regional terminals in the Western Cornbelt. In the Northern Plains market, Agrium’s granular urea postings moved on July 13 to $525/st FOB Marion, S.D., and North Dakota warehouses at Alton, Carrington, Colfax, and Scranton; and $530/st DEL in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and the Dakotas.

Southern Plains: Granular urea pricing was quoted at $485-$490/st FOB the Tulsa market at mid-month, and was reportedly in thin supply due to lock closures and low water on the Arkansas River.

South Central: The granular urea market was quoted at $515-$520/st FOB terminals in the South Central region.

Much of the South Central region was “hot and steamy” last week, according to one Arkansas source. Drought conditions worsened in Arkansas, Tennessee, and Kentucky, but crop conditions in Louisiana and Mississippi were generally favorable in mid-July.

USDA’s crop ratings showed the extent and location of drought stress in the region. As of July 15, just 6 percent of Kentucky’s corn fell in the good or excellent categories, with fully 77 percent of the acreage rated as poor or very poor. In Tennessee, 18 percent of the corn was good or excellent last week, with 55 percent in the poor or very poor categories. Growers in Louisiana were already shelling corn in some areas, and sources said some growers are planning to seed double-crop soybeans after corn due to the early harvest.

Soybeans in the good or excellent categories ranged from a low of 16 percent in Kentucky to 73 percent of the acreage in Mississippi. Cotton quality was similar, ranging from just 17 percent good or excellent in Missouri to 71 percent in Mississippi. Rice conditions were better in the region, with 58-68 percent of the crop in Arkansas and Louisiana rated as good or excellent, compared with 72-79 percent in Missouri, Mississippi, and Texas.

Southeast: The granular urea market was pegged at $560-$570/st FOB port terminals in the Southeast, with several locations out of product.

Heat advisories were posted last week for parts of North Carolina, and scattered thunderstorms sparked wildfires in areas of Georgia early in the week. Thunderstorm activity was also reported in central Alabama and central Florida last week, with heavy showers reported in some locations.

According to the July 17 U.S. Drought Monitor, extreme to exceptional drought was reported in a band stretching from eastern Alabama through central Georgia. Florida was relatively drought-free in mid-July.

Pacific Northwest: Effective July 13, Agrium’s granular urea postings moved to $525-$535/st DEL in Montana and Wyoming, depending on location; $540/st FOB West Woodburn, Ore.; $545/st FOB Pella, Idaho, and Washington warehouses at Glade, Warden, Moses Lake, Plymouth, and Wilson; $550/st DEL in Washington, Idaho, northern Nevada, the Klamath Basin, and Oregon; $560/st DEL in northern and central Utah; and $565/st DEL in southern Utah.

India: The IPL tender showed many in the industry that the urea market was softer than some had expected. In the end, the amount IPL will pay was about $125/mt less than STC paid in May.

Sources say the bid for deliveries to West Coast ports was $406/mt CFR, with East Coast ports at $408/mt CFR and smaller ports pegged at $409-$410/

Ammonia

Ammonia, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, Pacific N.W., Southern Plains, U.S. Gulf, Western Cornbelt

U.S. Gulf/Tampa: The markets remained quiet last week, with Tampa continuing to be called $690-$710/mt DEL and NOLA $655/st FOB.

Eastern Cornbelt: Anhydrous ammonia pricing had firmed to $740-$760/st FOB regional terminals, with the common price in Illinois quoted at the $750/st FOB level. CF’s ammonia prices for the July 14-20 shipping period included $740/st FOB Mt. Vernon, Ind.; $750/st FOB Illinois terminals at Albany, Kingston Mines, Peru, and Seneca; $755/st FOB Cowden, Ill., and Terra Haute, Ind.; and $760/st FOB Huntington, Ind., and Courtright, Ontario.

Sources were speculating about fall ammonia demand in the region, saying persistent drought will limit fall applications and put pressure on ammonia, urea, and UAN for spring 2013. One source also said fall applications of phosphate and potash will “take a hit” in drought areas.

Drought conditions in Indiana ranged from severe to extreme last week, according to the July 17 U.S. Drought Monitor, with Ohio under moderate to severe drought. Nearly all of Illinois was experiencing severe drought at mid-month, although drought conditions in southern Illinois were labeled as extreme at mid-month.

Corn quality plunged last week, with only 8-11 percent of the acreage in Indiana and Illinois rated as good or excellent, compared with 19 percent in Ohio. Poor or very poor ratings were assigned to fully 71 percent of Indiana’s corn crop last week, compared with 56 percent in Illinois and 47 percent in Ohio.

Similar conditions were reported for soybeans. Only 11 percent of Indiana’s crop was rated as good or excellent, along with 17 percent of the acreage in Illinois and 22 percent in Ohio. Poor or very poor ratings were given to 57 percent of Indiana’s soybeans at mid-month, compared with 41-42 percent in Illinois and Ohio.

Western Cornbelt: Sources reported higher prices for ammonia, but little in the way of new business to test the market. More hot, dry weather settled over the Western Cornbelt in mid-July, and crop conditions continued to deteriorate as a result.

CF’s ammonia postings for the July 14-20 shipping period moved to $720/st FOB Blair and Greenwood, Neb.; $725/st FOB Whiting, Iowa; $730/st FOB Port Neal, Iowa; $740/st FOB Garner, Iowa; and $745/st FOB Spencer, Iowa, and Palmyra, Mo. In the Northern Plains, CF’s ammonia postings included $750/st FOB Mankato, Minn., and $760/st FOB Glenwood, Minn., Grand Forks, N.D., and Velva, N.D.

Effective July 13, Agrium’s ammonia postings in the Leal/Beulah sales area in North Dakota moved to $780/st FOB and $800/st DEL. Agrium’s July 1 ammonia postings included $740-$745/st FOB Nebraska terminals and $750/st FOB Iowa terminals.

As of July 17, the U.S. Drought Monitor said drought conditions in central and southwestern Nebraska had transitioned to extreme, with most of the rest of the state experiencing severe drought. Nearly all of Missouri was in severe or extreme drought last week, with the worst conditions reported in southeastern and central areas of the state. USDA has approved a disaster declaration for all of Missouri’s 114 counties, Missouri Gov. Jay Nixon reported on July 17. In Iowa, the eastern half of the state was experiencing severe drought at mid-month.

As of July 15, USDA said corn rated as good or excellent had fallen to just 7 percent of the acreage in Missouri, compared with 36-43 percent in Iowa and Nebraska. Corn rated as poor or very poor had expanded to cover fully 72 percent of Missouri’s crop, compared with 27 percent of the acreage in Iowa and Nebraska.

As for soybeans, just 10 percent of Missouri’s crop was rated as good or excellent last week, with 59 percent in the poor or very poor categories. In Iowa and Nebraska, 34-38 percent of th

Nitrogen Solutions

Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, Pacific N.W., Southeast, Southern Plains, U.S. Gulf, UAN, Western Cornbelt

U.S. Gulf: UAN barge prices shot up last week, with one source saying they were on fire. The earlier producer posting of $290/st ($9.06/unit) FOB was quickly met, and by week’s end sellers were quoting $315-$320/st ($9.84-$10.00/unit) FOB. However, prompt business that occurred last week was called $290-$305/st ($9.06-$9.53/unit) FOB.

Eastern Cornbelt: Sources pegged the UAN-28 market at $290-$300/st ($10.36-$10.71/unit) FOB Ohio terminals, with UAN-32 quoted at $336-$345/st ($10.50-$10.78/unit) FOB in the Illinois market. One Illinois source quoted the common dealer market at the $340.80/st ($10.65/unit) FOB mark at mid-month.

Western Cornbelt: UAN pricing was working its way up, sources said. One Iowa source quoted the dealer market solidly at the $340.80/st ($10.65/unit) FOB level last week, and Missouri sources also confirmed that pricing out of river terminals had firmed to the $340/st level from a low of $320/st ($10.00/unit) FOB on a spot basis one week earlier.

Southern Plains: Sources quoted the UAN-32 market in a broad range at $315-$335/st ($9.84-$10.47/unit) FOB Southern Plains terminals, with the low end again reported out of Oklahoma production points.

South Central: The UAN-32 market had reportedly firmed to $320-$335/st ($10.00-$10.47/unit) FOB terminals in the South Central region, but sources said higher numbers would follow soon based on a firming market for replacement tons.

Southeast: The UAN-30 market had reportedly slipped to $320-$330/st ($10.67-$11.00/unit) FOB port terminals in the Southeast region, while UAN-32 pricing out of inland Georgia terminals remained at the $335 ($10.47/unit) FOB level on the low end.

Pacific Northwest: Agrium’s UAN-32 postings moved on July 13 to $400/st ($12.50/unit) rail-DEL in Washington, northern Idaho, and Oregon excluding Malheur County. In the Klamath Basin, Agrium’s UAN-32 postings moved on July 13 to $405/st ($12.66/unit) rail-DEL and $420/st ($13.13/unit) truck-DEL. In Montana and northern Wyoming, Agrium’s postings moved on July 13 to $350/st ($12.50/unit) DEL for UAN-28 and $410/st ($12.81/unit) DEL for UAN-32.

Ammonium Nitrate

Ammonium Nitrate, Market Watch, Pacific N.W., Southeast, Southern Plains, U.S. Gulf, Western Cornbelt

U.S. Gulf: Buyers have finally gotten their way on nitrate barges, with the market now called $335-$345/st FOB. The El Dorado outage had been a major factor, but sources say that both domestic supplies and imports are now more available.

Western Cornbelt: Ammonium nitrate was pegged at $450-$480/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt.

Southern Plains: Ammonium nitrate had reportedly slipped to $400/st FOB the Tulsa market, though some sources maintained that pricing for new sales was still at the $450/st FOB mark.

South Central: The ammonium nitrate market had reportedly fallen to $375-$385/st FOB, with the low FOB Yazoo City, Miss., and the upper end FOB Memphis, Tenn. Higher dealer postings were still in effect at other locations, however.

Pacific Northwest: Effective July 13, Agrium’s AN-20 posting moved to $256/st FOB Kennewick, Wash., and $266/st rail-DEL.

Ammonium Sulfate

Ammonium Sulfate, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, Southeast, Southern Plains, Western Cornbelt

Eastern Cornbelt: Ammonium sulfate was tagged at $375-$400/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt region.

Western Cornbelt: Granular ammonium sulfate was quoted at $375-$400/st FOB at mid-month, but sources said a fill program was likely in the near term.

Ammonium thiosulfate was pegged at $365-$380/st FOB in the region.

Southern Plains: American Plant Food Corp. (APF) announced new ammonium sulfate postings, effective July 16. APF’s granular ammonium sulfate postings dropped some $65/st, moving on that date to $295/st FOB Freeport, Texas, $305/st FOB Galena Park, Texas, $320/st FOB Fort Worth, Texas, $325/st FOB Mermentau, La., and $330/st FOB Littlefield, Texas. Coarse grade postings moved to $280/st FOB Freeport, $290/st FOB Galena Park, $305/st FOB Fort Worth, and $315/st FOB Littlefield, while standard grade ammonium sulfate was reposted at $275/st FOB Freeport and $310/st FOB Littlefield. APF’s N-Pac Compacted posting dropped on July 16 to $310/st FOB Galena Park.

APF also reported on July 11 that the company is “currently experiencing a temporary reduction” in ammonium sulfate production. “Normal operations are expected to resume shortly, and the interruption should not affect annual volume,” APF said. “However, customers may see some slight delays on orders placed in late July.”

Ammonium sulfate pricing FOB Plainview, Texas, moved on July 16 to $330/st for granular, $315/st for coarse, and $310/st for standard.

South Central: Granular ammonium sulfate was reported at $365-$375/st FOB in the South Central region last week. The ammonium thiosulfate market remained at $340-$360/st FOB in the region.

Southeast: Granular ammonium sulfate remained at $365-$375/st FOB and $380-$400/st DEL in the Southeast, depending on location. Standard grade was referenced at $242/st FOB Augusta, Ga., and $260/st DEL in Florida. Sources said a fill program was expected later in July.

Phosphates

Central Florida, China, Di-Ammonium Phosphate, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, Mono-Ammonium Phosphate, Southeast, Southern Plains, U.S. Exports, U.S. Gulf, Western Cornbelt

Central Florida: In the eastern U.S., Georgia was suffering the worst from drought, with about half the state in either extreme or exceptional drought. Most of the South and the Northeast were in also in drought or near drought conditions.

About the only place in the eastern part of the country without a severe problem was Florida, where only a small part of the Panhandle was experiencing any form of drought. The rest of the state has been receiving above normal rainfall since early June.

PotashCorp’s White Springs facility was back in operation late last week, but had not reached normal production levels. That was expected to occur sometime early this week. The facility was shut down due to flooding and a power outage during Tropical Storm Debby in late June. Shipment of some MAP was underway.

Meanwhile, producer inventories continued to be low and were projected to remain low, at least until September. Regardless, there were few buyers in the Central Florida market last week.

Mosaic reached an agreement on July 19 for new sulfur prices for molten delivered to Tampa, but PotashCorp was still in the process of negotiating. Mosaic’s new price was $170/lt for the third quarter, down $10/lt from the $180/lt it had been during the second quarter.

The DAP price range for Central Florida was unchanged last week at a flat $500/st FOB. CF’s posted price was at the $500/st FOB mark, and Mosaic was also at $500/st FOB. MAP continued to sell at a $20/st premium to DAP in Central Florida, about the same difference as from traders. PCS Sales, which produces MAP at its White Springs facility in North Florida, was selling at prices comparable to the market.

U.S. Gulf: The main topic of conversation at the Southwestern Fertilizer Conference at San Antonio last week was the weather and all its related problems. The worst drought in 50 years was expected to continue until October, according to long-range weather forecasts. Almost all of the Midwest was under some level of drought, from moderate to exceptional.

The damage was not only to crops, but to the morale of farmers and the dealers who serve them. One dealer described a farmer who had been despondent because he was unable to irrigate a large portion of his corn crop, but became very cheerful and optimistic after receiving only a fraction of an inch of rain. Although it did not really change his situation, it did change his attitude.

For the fertilizer industry, the big question was how the drought will affect sales in the fall. Pretty much everyone agreed nitrogen products will be in demand, but the outlook for phosphate and potash was less clear. Most likely less phosphate and potash will be used in the fall, but how much less will depend on soil tests. The season started early this year, and the plants used a good portion of the phosphate and potash in the soil during the early growing stages.

Prices for 2012 corn futures surged last week compared to the previous week, rising to over $8/bushel before retreating late in the week. The corn price for December was $7.8675/bushel, up from $7.215/bushel a week earlier. The corn price for December 2013 was $6.1875/bushel, increasing from $6.115/bushel the previous reporting period.

For November 2012, soybeans leaped to $16.52/bushel from $15.225/bushel the previous week, and soybeans for November 2013 increased to $13.135/bushel from $12.95/bushel a week earlier. Wheat for July 2013 rose to $8.32/bushel from $8.28/bushel the week before, and wheat for July 2014 was listed at $7.465/bushel last week, down from $7.7725/bushel the previous week. The Department of Agriculture rated only 34 percent of the soybean crop as excellent nationwide, which contributed to the big price push for that crop last week.

The Southwestern Fertilizer Conference did not generate a g

Potash

Brazil, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, Potash Muriate, Southeast, Southern Plains, U.S. Gulf, Western Cornbelt

U.S. Gulf: Potash barges continued to be called around the $470/st FOB mark, give or take $5/st. While some players said they were anxiously waiting to see if a posting increase of $20/st truly takes effect July 21, others said the conversation on potash at the San Antonio meeting took all of one minute.

Eastern Cornbelt: Potash continued to be quoted in the $500-$510/st range FOB Eastern Cornbelt warehouses. One regional source estimated that fall potash rate reductions will range from 25-30 percent if drought conditions persist.

“Bottom line, if you’re a farmer and you’ve got a drought situation with hot temperatures, and you truly don’t know what it’s going to yield, will you be buying any equipment or fertilizer?” said one contact. “I don’t think we’ll know a whole lot until the farmer gets into the field.”

Granular potash postings from PCS Sales are slated to firm $20/st on July 21, moving to $530/st FOB warehouses in Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio. Agrium was referenced at $510/st FOB and $520/st rail-DEL in the region for red premium potash.

Western Cornbelt: Sources quoted the potash market at $500-$510/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt. Postings from PCS Sales are slated to firm $20/st on July 21, moving to $530/st FOB St. Louis, Mo., and Iowa terminals at Fort Dodge and Waterloo. Agrium’s July 1 postings for red premium potash include $510/st FOB warehouses and $520/st rail-DEL in Iowa, Nebraska, and Missouri.

Southern Plains: Reference prices for potash FOB Carlsbad, N.M., were $510/st for 60 percent standard, $515/st for 60 percent granular and 62 percent standard, and $525/st FOB for 62 percent fine soluble and 62 percent granular.

Out of regional warehouses in the Southern Plains, the potash market was pegged at $500-$510/st FOB at mid-month. Agrium’s July 1 postings for red premium potash included $520/st rail-DEL in Kansas, Oklahoma, and Colorado.

South Central: Potash remained at $510-$520/st FOB warehouses in the South Central region, with the low FOB Memphis and Caruthersville, Mo., and the upper end in the Louisiana market on a spot basis. Agrium’s postings for rail-delivered red premium potash moved on July 1 to $530/st in Kentucky and Tennessee.

Southeast: Potash pricing had reportedly slipped to $517-$520/st FOB regional warehouses in the Southeast, with rail-delivered tons quoted at $525-$530/st in the region.

Agrium’s July 1 warehouse postings for red premium potash included $517/st FOB Lynchburg, Va., and $520/st FOB Mulberry, Fla., and Georgia terminals at Americus, Bainbridge, Savannah, and Tifton. Agrium’s postings for rail-delivered red premium potash moved on that date to $530/st in Alabama, Georgia, Florida, Virginia, and the Carolinas.

Potash postings from PCS Sales were slated to firm $20/st on July 21, moving to $540/st FOB Baltimore, Md.

Brazil: Major sellers are seeking $550/mt DEL for granular, up from the earlier $520/mt DEL.

Sulfur

Market Watch, Sulfur, Tampa, Vancouver

Tampa: By late last week, Mosaic had reached an agreement with its suppliers for a price reduction for the third quarter for molten sulfur delivered to Tampa. The drop was $10/lt, which lowered the price from $180/lt to $170/lt.

However, PotashCorp was still in the process of negotiating its price, so the Green Markets range will not change until that company has reached an agreement with all of its sulfur suppliers as well.

PotashCorp had resumed production of MAP at its White Springs processing plant, but had not reached normal production levels as of late last week. That was expected to occur sometime this week. The plant went offline due to flooding and a power loss during Tropical Storm Debby.

Refinery operating capacity remained very high last week, according to the Department of Energy. The operating rate was down 0.7 percent, from 92.7 percent to 92 percent. The four-year average was 90.2 percent, compared with 90.3 percent for the same week last year.

Vancouver: Syncrude will probably not begin remelting its 9 million mt of blocked sulfur for another couple of months, and it will most likely not do so at maximum capacity of 1,000 mt/day. The rate will probably be closer to120 mt/day.

However, a source said the company will be adding to the block at the same time it will be melting part of the old block, and it will be used to keep a steady flow, if and when the processing plant shuts down, which happened several times during the past year. It was not expected to affect prices for sulfur on either the world market or at Tampa.

Benelux: The current price range was $212-$220/mt FOB.

Northern Plains plant signs on Manitoba farmers

Featured, News, Northern Plains

A Manitoba farmers group, Keystone Agricultural Producers (KAP), has announced that it will have one seat on the board of directors of the proposed farmer-owned $1 billion Northern Plains nitrogen facility. The plant, spearheaded by the North Dakota Corn Growers Association, would be built somewhere in the Northern Plains and would use low-priced natural gas, with an eye toward using much of the currently flared gas in North Dakota. KAP identifies itself as a democratically controlled general farm lobby organization that represents and promotes the interests of agriculture and agricultural producers in Manitoba.

KAP says the project has already moved from the feasibility stage to the planning stage, and has both investors and industry management experts on board.

“Manitoba farmers are supporting this world-class project because they are frustrated with the high price of fertilizer – a vital crop input that just keeps going up, regardless of supply and demand patterns,” said Doug Chorney, KAP president. “This is an opportunity for us to impact the regional fertilizer supply and market dynamics.”

“We will create a stable fertilizer supply that is not dependent on off-shore natural gas supplies and freight costs,” said Don Pottinger, long-time fertilizer veteran and advisor to the project, noting that the majority of North American fertilizer is currently produced using foreign natural gas supplies.

The Manitoba Canola Growers Association (MCGA) will fund Manitoba’s seat on the project board on behalf of KAP and all Manitoba farmers. It has announced that Brian Chorney, a farmer and agricultural engineer who is MCGA’s vice-president, has been selected to fill the position on the board.

In related news, the North Dakota Agricultural Products Utilization Commission was to hear a request July 19 for $150,000 to help finance a business plan to construct an anhydrous ammonia plant that could use North Dakota natural gas. However, a Commission spokesperson late in the day told Green Markets it has not made a decision.

In the meantime, North Dakota’s governor is on board with a new nitrogen project. “While we continue to supply the nation with high-quality natural gas, we can also continue to add value right here in North Dakota,” said N.D. Governor Jack Dalrymple. “By converting more natural gas to fertilizer we can further diversify our economy; we can create a more reliable fertilizer supply for our farmers in North Dakota and throughout the Midwest, and we can continue to reduce the flaring of natural gas.”

County zoning board snubs OCI; Tea Party finds fault with state incentives

Featured, Midwest, News

The Scott County, Iowa, Planning and Zoning Commission voted 6-1 July 17 to reject a rezoning request by Orascom Construction Industries (OCI) for a $1.5 billion nitrogen plant. OCI has the option to buy the 318 acres, which is currently zoned agricultural and would have to be rezoned for heavy industry.

The meeting was reportedly standing-room only with some 50 speakers, with most of those against the plant. While many wanted the jobs that would come with the plant, they did not want it to disturb existing prime farmland, but instead be sited somewhere already zoned industrial. Governor Terry Branstad and the Iowa Farm Bureau sent letters in support of the plant.

OCI appears intent on a site in Iowa and will proceed with its plans for Scott County, as this appears to be its preferred site within the state out of the four considered. The request will next go before the Scott County Board of Supervisors in August. Another large meeting is expected. While Illinois is also trying to lure OCI to a site near Pekin, the company also has the alternative of building a new plant at its existing facility in Beaumont, Texas.

In the meantime, at least one branch of the Iowa Tea Party is opposed to the plant on the grounds that taxpayers will provide some $392 million for the plant. “If OCI gets all the breaks it wants, each job will cost Iowa taxpayers $200,000,” claims the group on its website. While the Burlington Tea Party’s own meeting to discuss the plant last week had to be postponed, it expects to reschedule in August. The Burlington group put up an online petition to oppose the plant, initially slated for Lee County. Lee County has since been set aside as being in a 100-year flood plain. The group was also opposed to the Lee site due to environmental concerns, including concern for the wetlands, the Indiana bat, the Yellow Sandshell Mussel, and nine species of butterflies.