All posts by webster@kennedyinfo.com

Nitrogen Solutions

California, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, Pacific N.W., U.S. Gulf, UAN, Western Canada, Western Cornbelt

U.S. Gulf: There was little news on UAN barges. Most of the business occurred a few weeks ago when prices were recorded around the $260/st ($8.13/unit) FOB mark. In the meantime, sources say trades have worked their way back up to the $270-$280/st ($8.44-$8.75/unit) FOB range.

Eastern Cornbelt: UAN pricing in the Eastern Cornbelt continued to range from $9.40-$10.36/unit FOB regional terminals for summer fill tons, depending on location.

Western Cornbelt: UAN fill tons were pegged at $9.84-$10.16/unit FOB in the Western Cornbelt region for product pulled in July or August.

California: The UAN-32 market had reportedly slipped to $380-$390/st ($11.88-$12.19/unit) FOB in California, with rail-delivered tons pegged at the $370/st ($11.56/unit) level in the Central Valley. There were reports that fill tons were offered earlier for as low as $335-$345/st ($10.47-$10.78/unit) DEL for July shipments, but that program was not confirmed.

Pacific Northwest: The UAN-32 market was down from last report, with sources quoting the market at $405-$415/st ($12.66-$12.97/unit) DEL in the Pacific Northwest.

Western Canada: UAN-28 pricing in Western Canada was down significantly from spring, with the market moving on July 1 to $384-$387/mt ($13.71-$13.82/unit) DEL in Manitoba, $387-$390/mt ($13.82-$13.93/unit) DEL in Saskatchewan, $390-$399/mt ($13.93-$14.25/unit) DEL in Alberta, and $393-$399/mt ($14.04-$14.25/unit) DEL in British Columbia.

Ammonia

Ammonia, California, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, Pacific N.W., Tampa, U.S. Gulf, Western Canada, Western Cornbelt

U.S. Gulf/Tampa: The markets remained quiet last week, with Tampa continuing to be called $690-$710/mt DEL and NOLA $655/st FOB.

Eastern Cornbelt: The anhydrous ammonia market was unchanged at $700-$730/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt region, with reports of fall prepay offers at the $735/st FOB level in the Illinois market.

Sweltering heat and worsening drought continued to blanket the Eastern Cornbelt in early July, with triple-digit highs reported throughout Illinois and central and southern Indiana. Heat advisories and warnings were in effect for most of Ohio at midweek as well.

As of July 3, drought conditions in Indiana continued to range from severe to extreme, with the latter category reported in northern and southwestern areas of the state.
Most of Illinois was in moderate to severe drought, with the southern tip of the state experiencing extreme drought in early July. In Ohio, most of the state was under moderate drought conditions last week.

USDA’s crop ratings last week showed rapidly deteriorating crop conditions in the region. As of July 1, good or excellent ratings were assigned to only 19-20 percent of Indiana’s corn and soybeans, compared with 26-28 percent in Illinois and 29-33 percent in Ohio.

In most cases, the percentage of crops in the poor or very poor categories outweighed the good or excellent fields last week. Fully half of Indiana’s corn was rated as poor or very poor as of July 1, along with 33 percent of the crop in Illinois and 26 percent in Ohio. As for soybeans, 43 percent of the Indiana crop fell in the poor or very poor categories last week, compared with 30-31 percent in Ohio and Illinois.

Western Cornbelt: The anhydrous ammonia market in the Western Cornbelt region was flat at $625-$660/st FOB regional terminals.

As of July 3, most of Missouri was under severe drought, with the southeastern corner of the state experiencing extreme drought conditions. Drought conditions in central and eastern Iowa ranged from moderate to abnormally dry, while most of Nebraska was under moderate or severe drought conditions last week, with the driest areas in western Nebraska.

The region’s corn and soybean crops continued to develop ahead of normal, but crop conditions were declining as excessive heat and drought continued. Fully 56 percent of the Missouri corn crop was silking by July 1, compared with 25 percent in Nebraska and 16 percent in Iowa. USDA assigned good or excellent ratings to 62 percent of Iowa’s corn acreage last week, compared with 56 percent in Nebraska and just 18 percent in Missouri. Some 48 percent of Missouri’s corn was rated as poor or very poor last week.

Soybeans at the blooming stage totaled 25-26 percent of the acreage in Nebraska and Iowa last week, compared with 11 percent in Missouri. Some 59 percent of Iowa’s soybeans were still rated as good or excellent last week, compared with 45 percent in Nebraska and 18 percent in Missouri. USDA placed 49 percent of the Missouri soybean crop in the poor or very poor categories last week.

California: A new slate of ammonia postings took effect July 1. Calamco’s anhydrous ammonia price firmed $40/st on that date, moving to $745/st DEL in California. Aqua ammonia postings from the company also moved up to $200/st FOB from the previous $190/st FOB posting.

Pacific Northwest: Anhydrous ammonia was pegged at $820-$840/st DEL in the Pacific Northwest, up some $20-$30/st from last report.

Western Canada: The anhydrous ammonia market moved on July 1 to $892-$901/mt DEL in Manitoba, $901-$910/mt DEL in Saskatchewan, and $910-$937/mt DEL in Alberta. Those levels were down more than $300/mt from spring pricing levels.

The Week in Fertilizer Stocks

Fertilizer Stocks

The Week in Fertilizer Stocks

Producer Symbol Price Week Ago Year Ago
Agrium AGU 91.94 87.28 89.21
CF Industries CF 199.76 190.04 143.13
CVR Partners UAN 24.78 24.47 22.77
Intrepid Potash IPI 23.61 22.53 32.35
Mosaic MOS 56.10 54.05 68.73
PotashCorp* POT 45.50 43.64 57.65
Rentech Nitrogen RNF 29.22 27.57 N/A
Terra Nitrogen TNH 220.89 216.31 127.15
Distribution/Retail
Andersons Inc. ANDE 43.48 41.38 43.26
Deere & Co. DE 81.98 78.24 84.84
Scotts SMG 41.27 40.42 50.42
* represents three-for-one stock split

Ammonia

Ammonia, Asia, Black Sea, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, Middle East, Southeast, Southern Plains, Tampa, U.S. Gulf, Western Cornbelt

U.S. Gulf/Tampa: Yara concluded new Tampa business for July at $690/mt CFR last week, up from June’s $625/mt. In the meantime, Transammonia concluded business at $710/mt.

Meanwhile, the NOLA barge market continues to be called $655/mt FOB.

Eastern Cornbelt: The anhydrous ammonia market remained at a nominal $700-$730/st FOB in the region, with reports of fall prepay offers at the $735/st FOB level in the Illinois market on a spot basis.

Highs in the 90s and triple digits were reported throughout the Eastern Cornbelt region last week. A fire danger warning was issued on June 28 for a large swath of central Indiana, and heat advisories and fire weather watches were also posted for southern and western Ohio as the week advanced.

A southern Illinois source said temperatures were in the high 90s in his location at midweek, and the 10-day precipitation outlook held only a 10 percent chance for rain. He said crops were “cooking” in his area, and corn is in the middle of pollination. Added another source, “Things could get real dismal in a big hurry” if conditions remain hot and dry in the region.

As of June 26, drought conditions in Indiana ranged from severe to extreme, with the latter category reported in northern and southwestern areas of the state. Most of Illinois was in moderate to severe drought, though the southern tip of the state had transitioned to extreme drought late in June.

Crop quality continued to decline in the region. As of June 24, only 27-37 percent of the Indiana and Illinois corn crops were rated as good or excellent, compared with 51 percent in Ohio. Some 36 percent of Indiana’s corn was already in the poor or very poor categories last week, compared with 15-22 percent in Ohio and Indiana.

As for soybeans, 8-15 percent of the regional crop was blooming by June 24, with good or excellent ratings assigned to 40 percent of the acreage in Ohio, 35 percent in Illinois, and just 24 percent in Indiana. “We will be good for a few more days, but rain will be needed in the next week,” said one Ohio source, commenting on crop quality in his location.

Western Cornbelt: The anhydrous ammonia market was flat at $625-$660/st FOB Western Cornbelt terminals.

Intense heat and minimal rainfall continued to bake crops in the Western Cornbelt. “Hot and dry does not get close to it,” said one Missouri contact, who reported highs ranging from 105-108 degrees in his location as the week advanced. At least 17 record highs were reported in western Nebraska in late June, while residents of eastern Nebraska and Iowa saw heat index readings climb to 105 degrees or warmer at midweek.

Moderate drought to abnormally dry conditions were reported in central and eastern Iowa as of June 26, while drought conditions in central western Nebraska ranged from moderate to severe. Nearly all Missouri was in either moderate or severe drought, although extreme drought was reported in the southeastern corner of the state.

One Iowa source said crops in his location looked great last week, but quality will begin to drop rapidly if conditions remain dry. “If we were to get a slow, steady rain this week, we’d have 200 bushel corn guaranteed,” he said. “But we won’t get that rain, and as a result yields could start dropping 50-75 bushels pretty fast.” In southern Missouri, crops were already showing signs of significant drought and heat stress last week.

Good or excellent ratings were assigned to 60-68 percent of the corn acreage in Iowa and Missouri last week, compared with just 34 percent in Missouri. Soybean conditions in Missouri were worse, with just 26 percent of the crop rated as good or excellent as of June 24, compared with 57 percent in Nebraska and 63 pe

Urea

Black Sea, China, Eastern Cornbelt, India, Indonesia, Market Watch, Middle East, Pakistan, Southeast, Southern Plains, U.S. Gulf, Urea, Western Cornbelt

U.S. Gulf: New spot prompt granular business last week was called in the $433-$450/st FOB range, with the higher end for barges that were ready to move.

There was a lot of talk of prices in the $410-$425/st FOB range, but most said those were for late July into September. Sources said a fair amount of urea imports are expected during that period.

Prill supplies continue to be tight. Sources confirm that less is available as PCS readies for a 52-day turnaround to occur at its Augusta plant in September. Reports were that barges are now being quoted as high as $525/st FOB.

Eastern Cornbelt: The granular urea market in the Eastern Cornbelt was quoted at $495-$515/st FOB regional terminals, depending on location and time of delivery. The low was quoted in the Ohio market on a spot basis last week.

Western Cornbelt: Most were out of urea in the region in late June. Where there were spot tons for sale, sources pegged the dealer market in the $525-$530/st FOB range in the Western Cornbelt. “It is difficult to get a good read on the terminal market,” said one source. “Most of us are empty. Some have bought, some have not, and no one wants to be the first one to come out with a price till they get a good read on the market.”

Southern Plains: Granular urea pricing in the Tulsa, Okla., market had slipped to the $500/st FOB mark for prompt pull, but sources reported little business to test the market. Lock maintenance on the Arkansas River limited the movement of tons, but many dealers were out of product and not in the mood to buy in late June. “There is no reason to buy, and as it gets dryer the farmer is more and more reluctant to purchase,” said one contact.

South Central: Sources said urea movement on rice was virtually over in the South Central region, and volumes were down from expectations. “We fell short. I’m not sure it even got close to where it needed to be” based on earlier projections, said one contact at midweek.

Sources quoted the granular urea market at $510-$540/st FOB regional terminals, with the upper end of the range reported in Arkansas. With rice growers wrapping up the second application on rice, there was little in the way of demand and inventory.

Southeast: List prices for granular urea were pegged at $570/st FOB Brunswick, Ga., $575/st FOB Norfolk, Va., and $590/st FOB Wilmington, N.C.

Torrential rains from Tropical Storm Debby left parts of Florida and southern Georgia saturated last week, while heat and humidity blanketed much of the rest of the region.

More than 26 inches of rain fell in Florida’s Wakulla County, while a section of Interstate 10 between Jacksonville and Tallahassee in northern Florida was closed early in the week due to flooding. Florida Gov. Rick Scott declared a statewide emergency on June 25 as the storm dumped as much as five inches of rain per hour in some areas of the state, leaving many residents without power.

Flash flood warnings were in effect for southern Georgia as the storm slowly moved up the coast, with up to 15 inches of rain expected for some areas of the state from July 26-28. Local reports said Debby also spawned as many as 20 twisters in Florida and Georgia.

Pakistan: TCP closed its tender for 200,000 mt June 25 and awarded 100,000 mt to Transammonia for $411.77/mt CFR. The government buying house issued another tender to close July 26. The final price is about $100/mt lower than what TCP paid just a month ago.

Transammonia had its optional 100,000 mt rejected by TCP. Sources say the buyer probably looked at the softening urea market and decided it could do better in 30 days.
Under its general rules of o

Nitrogen Solutions

Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, Southeast, Southern Plains, U.S. Gulf, UAN, Western Cornbelt

U.S. Gulf: After a spate of fill business, sources said the market was working its way back up last week, from $265/st ($8.28/unit) FOB early in the week to $270-$280/st ($8.44-$8.75/unit) FOB.

Eastern Cornbelt: A wide range of UAN prices was reported in the Eastern Cornbelt region in late June, depending on whether the quote was for summer fill or prompt pull.

In the Ohio market, sources quoted fill tons in the $9.40-$9.82/unit range FOB river terminals for tons pulled in July or August, with UAN-28 pricing out of inland locations quoted in the $285-$290/st ($10.18-$10.36/unit) FOB range. An Illinois source pegged the UAN-32 market last week at $325-$340/st ($10.16-$10.63/unit) FOB terminals, with the low for summer fill tons.

Western Cornbelt: With sidedress demand now over in the region, Iowa sources quoted UAN-32 fill tons at $315-$320/st ($9.84-$10.00/unit) FOB terminals for July pull. In the Missouri market, the upper end of the UAN-32 market was pegged at the $325/st ($10.16/unit) FOB level last week.

Southern Plains: UAN-32 pricing for prompt tons had reportedly slipped to $350/st ($10.94/unit) FOB or less out of regional production points.

South Central: The UAN-32 market in the South Central region was quoted at $300-$325/st ($9.38-$10.16/unit) FOB terminals for fill tons, depending on location. The last prompt UAN sales out of regional terminals were quoted at the $375-$385/st ($11.72-$12.03/unit) FOB level for the last of the sidedress business, but no sales and no demand for prompt tons were reported in the region last week.

Southeast: The UAN-30 market was pegged at $335/st ($11.17/unit) FOB Norfolk and Wilmington. The UAN-32 market in Georgia was quoted in a broad range at $332-$335/st ($10.38-$10.47/unit) FOB inland terminals and $355/st ($11.09/unit) FOB Savannah. Sources said indications for the UAN-32 vessel market are in the $290-$310/mt CFR range for new tons.

Ammonium Nitrate

Ammonium Nitrate, Market Watch, Southeast, Southern Plains, U.S. Gulf, Western Cornbelt

U.S. Gulf: Barges continued to be called within the $360-$370/st FOB range last week. Inland numbers also continued to be strong, a reflection of short supplies from CF and a gradual startup at the El Dorado plant. The latter was reported to have one nitric acid unit back up, and was continuing its plan to gradually bring up additional plants.

Western Cornbelt: Ammonium nitrate remained at $480/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt region, where available.

Southern Plains: The ammonium nitrate market remained at $475-$485/st FOB the Tulsa market, with limited supply.

South Central: Ammonium nitrate pricing in the South Central region was quoted at $440-$450/st FOB regional terminals in late June, down $10/st from last report.

Southeast: The ammonium nitrate market remained at $420-$430/st FOB Tampa.

Ammonium Sulfate

Ammonium Sulfate, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, Southeast, Southern Plains, Western Cornbelt

Eastern Cornbelt: Ammonium sulfate remained at $375-$400/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt.

Western Cornbelt: Granular ammonium sulfate was steady at $395-$425/st FOB in the region, depending on location.

Southern Plains: Granular ammonium sulfate pricing was unchanged at $360-$395/st FOB Texas shipping points, with the low FOB Freeport and the upper end FOB Littlefield and Plainview.

South Central: Granular ammonium sulfate was pegged at $360-$380/st FOB in the South Central region, with no demand. The Memphis market was pegged in the $360-$370/st FOB range in late June.

The ammonium thiosulfate market remained at $340-$360/st FOB in the region.

Southeast: Granular ammonium sulfate was unchanged at $365-$375/st FOB and $380-$400/st DEL in the Southeast, depending on location. Standard grade was referenced at $242/st FOB Augusta, Ga., and $260/st DEL in Florida.

Phosphates

Central Florida, Di-Ammonium Phosphate, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, Mono-Ammonium Phosphate, Southeast, Southern Plains, U.S. Exports, U.S. Gulf, Western Cornbelt

Central Florida: Tropical Storm Debby dropped 20-30 inches of rain on central and northern Florida during the past week and created widespread flooding. The storm sat off the coast for several days before finally moving east over northern Florida on Wednesday. Sustained winds only reached about 40 mph, but gusts hit as high as 60 mph.

PotashCorp received about 20 inches of rain at its White Springs facility in North Florida and was out of service as a result of flooding and a loss of power. The company said product already produced was dry and there was no major damage to the facility, but production was likely to be halted for about two weeks. The company said product shipment had been halted due to flooding, but it was working to meet commitments to its customers.

Neither Mosaic nor CF Industries reported any damage. Mosaic said it received 12-15 inches in the widespread area in which it mines and has processing plants, but water levels at its facilities were low prior to the storm.

However, rivers in many areas were reaching historic highs and were expected to flood during this week. There was no report of crop damage, but fertilizer operations and deliveries were halted during the rain and high winds.

The DAP price range for Central Florida was unchanged last week at $490-$500/st FOB. CF’s posted price was at the $500/st FOB mark, and Mosaic was also at $500/st FOB. The lower priced DAP was available from a trader.

MAP continued to sell at a $20/st premium to DAP in Central Florida, about the same difference as from traders.

U.S. Gulf: While Florida was being flooded by Tropical Storm Debby last week, the Midwest was suffering from no rain and temperatures in the upper 90s and triple digits.

USDA said about 56 percent of the corn crop was in good-to-excellent condition nationally, which was down 7 percent from a week earlier. Yield reductions were expected in Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, southern Nebraska, southeastern Iowa, and Kansas. Soybeans were also said to be suffering from the conditions.

The extremely high temperatures were expected to continue through this week, according to weather forecasts. About 10 percent of the corn crop was silking, but pollination will be occurring under harsh conditions, which was expected to decrease yields.

As a result, crop prices were on a sharp rise. Prices for 2012 corn futures rose to $6.4125/bushel for December, up from the previous week’s $5.5925/bushel. The corn price for December 2013 was $5.775/bushel, increasing from $5.30/bushel the previous reporting period. For November 2012, soybeans moved up to $14.065/bushel from $13.8025/bushel the previous week, and soybeans for November 2013 increased to $12.4475/bushel from $12.35/bushel a week earlier. Wheat for July 2012 rose to $7.3075/bushel from $6.6775/bushel the week before, and wheat for July 2013 was listed at $7.985/bushel last week, up from $7.32/bushel the previous week. Wheat for July 2014 was posted at $7.9975/bushel.

Mississippi Phosphates was back in operation last week, but it was not clear whether it had returned to full production. The plant was shut down by the Occupational Health and Safety Administration (OSHA) in early June after two separate explosions and two deaths at its acid plant. The OHSA investigation could take up to six months to complete.

Inventories of DAP remained very low last week, and that was expected to continue throughout the summer. A vessel containing DAP, MAP, and TSP from OCP will be arriving during July, but no prices from the trader involved were available. The drought will result in higher crop prices and crop insurance should offset the yield losses, but farmers may hold off buying for fall applications if money becomes tight.

Trading was very light last week, as dealers held off on any action

Sulfur

Market Watch, Sulfur, Tampa, U.S. Gulf, Vancouver

Tampa: Although a fair number of refineries were having problems last week, the overall refinery operating capacity rate rose from 91.9 percent to 92.6 percent, which were historically high numbers, according to the U.S. Department of Energy.

Even though much more oil was being processed, most of it was sweet crude, which produces less sulfur. Still, there was no sulfur shortage in the U.S.

Speculation on third-quarter molten sulfur prices for Tampa continued to foresee a drop of $10-$30/lt.

Recent problems at Mississippi Phosphates, coupled with turnarounds at Simplot and Agrium, worked to add to the sulfur surplus. In addition, Tropical Storm Debby dumped about 20 inches of rain on PotashCorps’ Fort White facility in North Florida, which will idle the plant for about two weeks as it recovers from flooding and a power outage.

U.S. Gulf: Prill prices exported from the Gulf of Mexico were said to be in the $180/mt range last week.

Vancouver: Prices in China were down about $25/mt on sulfur from Vancouver. It was not clear whether the problem originated after some traders overextended and had to make good quickly, or if the price was simply unsupportable.

Benelux: The current price range was $210-$228/mt FOB.