All posts by webster@kennedyinfo.com

Urea

U.S. Gulf: The granular prompt market continued to bounce around last week. Early on, sources said trades worked their way up to the $390-$395/st FOB range. Prices were reported to have again retreated by the end of the week, however, into the $380s/st FOB. Prills were called $400-$415/st FOB.

Correction: The U.S. Gulf granular price for the issue dated Jan. 23 should have read $385-$408/st FOB.

Eastern Cornbelt: Granular urea pricing remained in the $445-$450/st range FOB Eastern Cornbelt terminals. An Indiana contact quoted delivered urea at $452/st to his location last week.

Western Cornbelt: Granular urea was tagged in a broad range at $435-$465/st FOB in the region, with the low reported in Missouri and the upper end in the Iowa market. In the Southern Plains, urea pricing out of Oklahoma terminals was quoted in the $430-$440/st FOB range.

Northern Plains: Granular urea was quoted at $435-$445/st FOB the Twin Cities and $490-$495/st DEL in North Dakota.

Northeast: Sources said urea pricing in the Northeast had firmed from a low of $420/st FOB Philadelphia earlier in January to $445-$455/st FOB last week.

Eastern Canada: Eastern Canada sources quoted dealer reference levels for granular urea in a broad range at $590-$645/mt FOB regional terminals, depending on location and supplier, but offers for spot or prepay tons were reportedly circulating in the region for as low as $550-$570/mt FOB in late January.

Indonesia: Pusri closed a tender Jan. 20 for 25,000 mt of granular and 20,000 mt of prilled urea. In the end, it scrapped the prilled tender and awarded the granular material to Ameropa at $422.25/mt FOB. A new tender was slated to close Jan. 27 for 25,000-35,000 mt of granular material.

Pusri scrapped the prilled tender because the highest bid did not meet the floor price. The selling company looked at an earlier sale of prills at $424/mt FOB to Dreymoor, and another of granular at $420/mt FOB to Keytrade. From those deals, Pusri figured the market was willing to deal in the $420s and set its reference price accordingly.

They were wrong, said one trader. Only Ameropa stepped up to a pricing level of Pusri’s liking.

Details of the bids are shown below.

Nitrogen Solutions

U.S. Gulf: Most noted a soft tone to the market last week, but the only firm number heard continued to be reported in the $270-$285/st ($8.44-$8.91/unit) FOB range, with speculation that business could be done in the $360s/st FOB.

Eastern Cornbelt: The UAN-28 market in the Eastern Cornbelt was unchanged at $294-$305/st ($10.50-$10.89/unit) FOB regional terminals for prompt tons. Rail-delivered UAN-32 was quoted at $345-$355/st ($10.78-$11.09/unit) in the region.

Western Cornbelt: Western Cornbelt sources quoted the dealer market for UAN in the $10.60-$11.09/unit FOB range, depending on location. One Missouri contact quoted UAN-32 at the $345/st ($10.78/unit) FOB level in his trade area last week.

Northern Plains: The UAN-28 market was tagged at $310-$315/st ($11.07-$11.25/unit) FOB Minnesota terminals. Delivered UAN-28 was reported at $350-$360/st ($12.50-$12.86/unit) in North Dakota, with the low for prompt tons and the upper end for spring prepay.

Northeast: One contact quoted the Baltimore UAN-30 market firmly at the $320/st ($10.67/unit) FOB level at midweek, while another said UAN-32 pricing out of Baltimore had slipped from $345/st ($10.78/unit) the previous week to $326/st ($10.19/unit) FOB last week. Out of terminals in upstate New York, the UAN-32 market was quoted in the $11.90-$12.00/unit FOB range.

The UAN vessel market was tagged at roughly $305/mt CFR.

Eastern Canada: UAN-28 pricing in Eastern Canada had reportedly slipped to $360/mt ($12.86/unit) FOB for prompt tons and $375/mt ($13.39/unit) FOB for prepay, with dealer reference levels as high as $380/mt ($13.57/unit) FOB Ontario terminals.

Ammonium Sulfate

Eastern Cornbelt: Granular ammonium sulfate was pegged at $375-$385/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt region.

Western Cornbelt: The granular ammonium sulfate market was pegged at $370-$385/st FOB in the region. Iowa sources quoted the ammonium thiosulfate market at roughly $370/st FOB in late January.

Northern Plains: Effective Jan. 12, Agrium’s granular ammonium sulfate postings in the Northern Plains region moved to $410/st rail-DEL in North Dakota, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. Honeywell’s Jan. 13 ammonium sulfate postings included granular at $385/st FOB Roseport, Minn., Amherst Junction, Wisc., and Prairie du Chien, Wisc., and mid-grade at $365/st FOB Red Rock, Minn. Honeywell’s rail-delivered postings in Minnesota and Wisconsin moved on that date to $395/st for granular and $375/st for mid-grade.

North Dakota sources quoted the ammonium thiosulfate market at $425-$445/st DEL, with the low for prompt tons and the upper end for spring prepay.

Northeast: Granular ammonium sulfate remained at a nominal $350-$355/st FOB and $355-$360/st DEL in the Northeast, though sources reported no new business to test those numbers.

Eastern Canada: Granular ammonium sulfate was pegged at $460-$465/mt FOB in the Eastern Canada market, depending on location.

Phosphates

Central Florida: Phosphate does not sell at a fast pace during the winter months, though this should be the time of year dealers stock their warehouses to prepare for the onslaught of farmers ready to plant their crops in the spring. That’s not happening this year.

Prices on the Gulf’s river system were so much lower than those from Central Florida, dealers were too nervous to make a move. Will the price go down? When? And by how much? No one is confident, and that has created a problem.

Mosaic has cut back its production, but that has not created any shortages or any new demand. Even export demand, which is normally filled from Central Florida, has been lax as of late.

Phosphate producers will get a break in raw materials costs. Ammonia prices for Tampa fell $83/mt last week, from $555/mt to $472/mt, and negotiations for new first-quarter sulfur pricing were expected to result in lower prices as well.

With no significant movement, the Central Florida DAP price range was unchanged last week at a flat $480/st FOB. Very large buyers may be able to get additional discounts, but that was not clear. Both Mosaic and CF Industries were posted at the $480/st FOB mark. MAP was in short supply, and was priced at a $20/st premium to DAP by Mosaic in Central Florida – about the same difference as from traders.

PCS Sales was selling at prices comparable to the market.

U.S. Gulf: There were few NOLA DAP or MAP barges on the water last week, and there were even fewer buyers.

“No one wants to take a chance,” one trader said. “They (traders and dealers) need to buy now, but people are nervous. If there is an early spring, there will be some logistics issues. People don’t want to do the wrong thing and lose.”

That’s understandable. The NOLA DAP barge market fell after Christmas to as low as $425/st FOB, then rose to as high as $490/st FOB, then fell back again. It seemed last week that it would be hard to drop much lower, but no one could guarantee that wouldn’t happen.

The NOLA DAP barges that were sold were apparently bought when the market was at its low end a few weeks ago, and those buyers were just getting rid of them.

If spring does come early, farmers will want to take advantage and get their crops in the ground early as well. Still, January was much too early to take the chance. What to do? If planting does begin early, phosphate will not be in place to meet the need, so the demand may push prices up by a significant margin.

Prices for corn futures moved up last week compared to the previous week, rising from $5.53/bushel to $5.70/bushel for December 2012. The corn price for December 2013 was $5.58/bushel, also up from $5.466/bushel the previous reporting period. Soybeans for November 2012 enjoyed a bump as well, moving higher at $12.27/bushel from $11.91/bushel the previous week. Soybeans for November 2013 were $12.02/bushel, up from $11.815/bushel the previous week. Wheat for July 2012 rose to $6.805 from $6.3925/bushel previously. Wheat for July 2013 was listed at $7.425/bushel last week, up from $7.0775/bushel a week earlier.

The NOLA DAP barge price moved down last week to $433-$446/st FOB, compared with $440-$450/st FOB the previous week. MAP barges were reportedly fetching a $35/st premium over DAP, although there was a lack of activity to test the market.

The market may continue to be depressed for the next few weeks, but prices should begin to rise in February if farmers begin to empty dealers’ warehouse bins.

Eastern Cornbelt:
DAP remained at $510-$530/st FOB regional warehouses, with MAP pegged in the $530-$550/st FOB range in the Eastern Cornbelt. An Indiana source pegged the dealer market for DAP at $515/st FOB and $530/st DEL, with MAP at the $540/st FOB mark

Potash

U.S. Gulf: Potash barges continued to weaken last week, with sources now calling the market $505-$510/st FOB.

Eastern Cornbelt: Potash out of Eastern Cornbelt warehouses was quoted at $545-$560/st FOB to the dealer, depending on grade and location. One source quoted brokered tons at the $560/st DEL level as well.

Western Cornbelt: Potash remained at $545-$557/st FOB regional warehouses, with the upper end quoted for white granular tons on a spot basis. The red granular potash market in Iowa was commonly quoted at the $550/st FOB level last week.

Northern Plains: Minnesota sources quoted the potash market at $535-$545/st FOB warehouses, while prompt delivered potash was reported at the $562/st level in North Dakota. Potash pricing FOB Saskatchewan mines for U.S. customers was tagged at $530-$540/st FOB, depending on grade and supplier.

Northeast: Potash was quoted at $560-$580/st FOB and $570-$590/st rail-DEL in the Northeast, depending on grade and location.

Eastern Canada: Potash pricing out of Ontario warehouses was unchanged at $640-$650/mt FOB, with the low for red and the upper end for white granular tons.

Sulfate of potash (SOP) was steady at $830/mt FOB in Ontario.

The K-Mag market in Eastern Canada was quoted at $460-$485/mt FOB regional warehouses, depending on location and supplier.

Russia: Uralkali, like PotashCorp, is prepared to cut potash production in order to prevent further price erosion, according to an interview given to Bloomberg news by Uralkali CFO Victor Belyakov. Uralkali has cut its 2012 production target by about 8 percent, to between 10.5 -10.8 million mt.

In other news, Uralkali reported that a Jan. 23 fire at its Brezeniki number 4 plant was quickly extinguished. It said the fire started at around 11:00 a.m. Moscow time at the 6th crystallizer in the vacuum crystallization unit of the hallurgic ore-treatment plant. At the time, Uralenergostroi, a contractor of Uralkali, was performing welding and grinding work at the crystallizer.

Uralkali said there was no danger to the employees of the plant, and no one was injured. The incident happened at the production line that is under reconstruction, and will not impact the company’s annual output.

Brazil: BPC has raised its postings for second quarter business to Brazil to $580/mt CFR, up some $20-$30/mt from its previous prices.

Sulfur

Tampa: Hovensa LLC announced last week that it will shut down its refinery at St. Croix, U.S. Virgin Islands, in mid-February. The plant has been losing money due to competition from new refineries in developing nations, the economic slowdown, and low natural gas prices in the U.S.

Sulfur prices for the first quarter for molten deliveries to Tampa had not been decided as of late last week, but that situation was expected to be resolved within the next few days. Both sides agree the price will go down, but by how much had not been agreed upon.

The U.S. DOE said refinery capacity operating rates last week decreased 1.5 percent, from 83.7 percent to 82.2 percent.

Vancouver: New February prices for Vancouver sulfur were expected to be settled in the $170/mt FOB range. China was not likely to make any new moves on sulfur until after its New Year.

Pusri scraps urea tender

Pusri scrapped its granular urea tender over the weekend after bids failed to meet the lowest price Pusri would accept. The reference price was pegged at $420/mt FOB. The highest bid, however, came in at $405/mt FOB from Samsung. Subsequent bids were significantly lower.

Sources say Pusri will call a new tender soon. In the process of issuing the new tender, said one trader, Pusri will be able to propose a new floor for pricing. The trader added that no one will know that new level until the new tender closes and all bids are recorded.

This tender showed an average price of $394.75/mt FOB for the granular material. The average bid price for granular material in the tender that closed Jan. 20 was $402.92/mt FOB.

In the previous tender the highest bid did surpass the floor price. At that time Ameropa took the business at $422.25/mt FOB.

Sources say the bids reflect the softening global urea market. One trader noted that major buying for Asia will not pick up until the second quarter. Another concurred and added that soft demand from U.S. buyers is adding to the general malaise within the marketplace.

Florida biosolid fertilizer plant explodes

New England Fertilizer Co. (NEFCO), West Palm Beach, Fla., has a team of investigators on the scene here to determine the cause of an explosion at a biosolid fertilizer facility Tuesday morning, Jan. 24. One employee identified as a chief operator who was transported for observation as a precaution is reported out of the hospital and in good condition.

“Operations are down and the facility will not be restarted until the cause of the explosion has been determined,” NEFCO spokeswoman Virginia Grace told Green Markets. She said General Manager Jim Sullivan is heading up the investigation and has been joined by others from the corporate office at North Quincy, Mass., and outside consultants from all over the country.

A NEFCO statement reported, “An explosion inside the building took place while the plant was shut down for routine maintenance and cleaning. There were no community or environmental impacts associated with the event.” According to Sullivan, at this time the company is unable to provide any further specifics, as it is in the process of developing a comprehensive incident report to determine the cause. “We will not commence operations at this facility until we completely understand the situation, and we will not put the safety of any of our employees in jeopardy at this plant until all safety issues are resolved.” In the meantime, NEFCO has invoked a back-up plan to manage biosolids for the Solid Waste Authority while the processing facility is temporarily shut down.”

Grace added that any damage caused by the explosion appears to be confined to one of two process trains. Pending the outcome of the investigation it is possible one train will be back in operation by the end of the week, Jan. 28.

West Palm Beach city spokesman Chase Scott told the local press the explosion was forceful enough to blow off heavy metal doors. West Palm Beach Fire-Rescue was called to the plant at about 5:15 a.m. Scott said three people were on the job at the time and that the explosion happened during a routine maintenance and cleaning while the plant was shut down, but it is unclear whether that procedure sparked the event. "There’s some significant damage," he said. "They have large, heavy industrial doors on the east and west sides. They were peeled up or blown off by the explosion." The waste treatment plant produces pelletized biosolids for use as fertilizer.

PotashCorp reports 2nd best earnings; doubles dividend

Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc. said Jan. 26 that its earnings for the year ending Dec. 31, 2011, were the second highest in history. Net income was $3.08 billion ($3.51 per diluted share) on sales of $8.71 billion, up from the prior year $1.77 billion ($1.95 per share) on sales of $6.53 billion.

Fourth quarter net income was up at $683 million ($.78 per share) on sales of $1.86 billion, compared to the year-ago $508 million ($.56 per share) on sales of $1.81 billion.

PotashCorp said it believes that any short-term challenges the industry may be facing do not change the powerful drivers of its business. “The return on fertilizer investment continues to be attractive to farmers world-wide and is expected to result in greater demand in the quarters ahead,” said PotashCorp President and CEO Bill Doyle.

In other news, on Jan. 25, PotashCorp announced that it is doubling its dividend. The company’s board has approved an increase of the company’s quarterly cash dividend (from $0.07 per share to $0.14 per share), and declared a quarterly cash dividend of US $0.14 per common share payable May 3, 2012 to shareholders of record on April 12, 2012.

“In addition to using our strong cash flow to grow our world-class fertilizer business, we have a proven track record of returning capital to our shareholders”, said Doyle. “This announcement to double the dividend – the second time in the past year – reflects the confidence we have in the drivers of our business and our commitment to creating superior long-term shareholder value.”

Bidding Company US$/mt FOB
  Granular (25,000 mt) Prilled (20,000 mt)
Ameropa 422.25  
Indevco 412.00 403.00
Interfame 411.75 402.75
Trada 405.00 390.00
CCIS 405.00 390.00
Liven 401.00 400.00
Fietra 401.00 399.00
     
Brio 399.00 396.00
Indagro 398.00 395.00
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