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The Week in Fertilizer Stocks

The Week in Fertilizer Stocks

Producer Symbol Price Week Ago Year Ago
Agrium AGU 89.33 93.34 95.77
CF Industries CF 182.96 187.55 206.22
CVR Partners UAN 22.56 23.35 24.84
Intrepid Potash IPI 19.16 19.37 23.98
Mosaic MOS 54.03 56.85 58.15
PotashCorp POT 38.30 39.86 45.84
Rentech Nitrogen RNF 31.58 29.06 29.94
Terra Nitrogen TNH 219.40 219.53 215.24
Distribution/Retail
Andersons Inc. ANDE 57.85 55.60 38.00
Deere & Co. DE 83.66 84.25 75.66
Scotts SMG 50.01 50.09 39.19

TCP urea tender shows $20/mt drop in price

The Trading Corporation of Pakistan (TCP) on June 22 closed its urea tender for 300,000 mt with prices lower than expected. The lowest offer came from Swiss Singapore at $317/mt CFR for 50,000 mt. There were two additional offers for a total of 125,000 mt below $320/mt CFR. In the run-up to the tender, industry sources were predicting offers in the mid-$320s/mt CFR.

Sources report that the tender was quickly awarded to Swiss Singapore. In general, the laws governing TCP purchases do not allow the buying house to negotiate with the other offering companies.

Because TCP was authorized to buy 300,000 mt in a “gallop” tender, the company will most likely call another tender for the remaining 250,000 mt. Under the general rules of operation, the tender will close at least one week after the announcement. The earliest TCP could close a tender is July 30.

In the last tender (GM June 10, pp. 7-8), TCP paid $337/mt CFR after a series of controversial moves that had the company first rejecting and then accepting the lowest offer of $335/mt CFR. In the end, however, the lowest priced offering company had already released its tons and declined the award.

The Swiss Singapore offer confirmed the thinking of many in the industry that there is a large overhang of Iranian product looking for a buyer. Swiss Singapore regularly handles Iranian urea product for export. Sources say there is about 500,000 mt in Iran with no home. This material and the nearly 2 million mt in the Chinese ports ready for export are expected to keep urea prices soft.

The next test of the market will be the IPL tender in India that closes July 26. If TCP calls another quick tender, it will not be able to close until a few days after the Indian deal is done. The Pakistan buying house could find itself paying higher rates for its next installment of urea.

Wilbur-Ellis buys Blue River Ag Supply

Wilbur-Ellis Co., Walnut Creek, Calif., has acquired the assets of Blue River Ag Supply LLC, located in Edgerton, Wisc. The company also acquired the assets of G & G Spray Service Inc., as part of the purchase. The location services customers spanning from Southern Wisconsin to Northern Illinois and will now be part of the Wilbur-Ellis Great Lakes operations.

Wilbur-Ellis operates several locations in the Great Lakes region and is excited about the additional expansion in Wisconsin. The company believes that it is already well-positioned in this market, and says it is thrilled to become a part of this rich agricultural community.

Wilbur-Ellis says it offers a total solutions approach to crop production management, including the most advanced crop production technology in seed, fertilizer, plant protection, application, data management, and analytics. In addition, Blue River Ag Supply’s customers will soon be able to work with Wilbur-Ellis crop technology experts. 

“Blue River Ag Supply is already a successful and sustainable business with quality leadership, making it a great fit for Wilbur-Ellis,” said Tim Boals, Wilbur-Ellis Great Lakes regional manager.  “Their people are experienced, very customer oriented and have good knowledge of the local markets.  We’re thrilled to welcome them to the Wilbur-Ellis Great Lakes team.”

“We’ve built a thriving business and I believe that becoming part of Wilbur-Ellis will only benefit our employees and customers,” said Chad Georgeson, co-owner of Blue River Ag Supply.  “We look forward to growing with Wilbur-Ellis and all the new business opportunities that lay ahead.”

Georgeson will now serve as the location’s branch manager. Charles Stross is also co-owner of Blue River Ag Supply.

Wilbur-Ellis’ Agribusiness Division generates over $2 billion in sales revenue and has 166 locations in 25 states throughout the United States.

World Bank foresees softer fertilizer prices

The semi-annual World Bank Commodity Outlook Report predicts fertilizer prices will decline by about 10 percent by the end of the third quarter of this year. The declines were more dramatic for urea and phosphate – notably DAP, at more than 10 percent down. The price for other fertilizers changed marginally. That drop comes on the heels of a 3 percent overall decline in prices between 2011 and 2012.

The international organization says reduced demand by India and China are the key factors in the expected drop in prices. The report does note that demand is up in the United States and South America, but that demand is not enough to counter the Indian and Chinese numbers.

The report looked at the 2013-2014 year, and predicted an additional 5 percent drop in overall pricing. The reduced price, according to the report, is expected because of lower natural gas prices, specifically in the Arab Gulf and Russia.

The World Bank used average numbers from fertilizer publications.

For a discussion by a World Bank economist and the link to the full report as a PDF documents, go to http://blogs.worldbank.org/prospects/commodity-market-outlook-july-2013

TCP pushes back urea tender to July 22

The Trading Corporation of Pakistan (TCP) pushed back its tender for 300,000 mt of urea to Monday, July 22, at 11:00 a.m. Islamabad time. Validity of the offers has been pushed back to 4:00 p.m. Tuesday, July 23.

TCP had earlier specified a July 17 closing for the tender. Terms require companies offering tons in the tender to quote only one price for all Pakistani ports instead of different rates for different ports.

TCP was given dispensation from the normal 30-day notice period to allow it to buy up to 300,000 mt as soon as possible. Also, the minimum offer requirements were moved up from the normal 50,000 mt to 75,000 mt.

Lower prices impact Mosaic

The Mosaic Company reported fourth quarter fiscal 2013 net earnings of $486 million, compared to $507 million a year ago. Earnings per diluted share were $1.14 in the quarter compared to $1.19 last year. Mosaic’s net sales in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2013 were $2.7 billion, down from $2.8 billion last year. Operating earnings during the quarter were $621 million, down from $671 million a year ago, as record potash and strong phosphate sales volumes were more than offset by lower realized prices.

"Our focus on planning and execution paid off, with Mosaic achieving record potash and strong phosphate shipments during the quarter," said Jim Prokopanko, President and Chief Executive Officer of Mosaic. "Mosaic delivered outstanding results despite difficult external factors such as the late and compressed North American spring planting season, and additional logistical challenges. The long-term outlook for Mosaic remains compelling, and we are executing well to capture the opportunity."

For the year ended May 31, 2013, net income was $1.9 billion, or $4.42 per diluted share, compared to the $1.93 billion and $4.42 per diluted share in fiscal 2012. Net sales were $10.0 billion, down from $11.1 billion a year ago. Full-year operating earnings were $2.2 billion, down from $2.6 billion a year ago. Lower net sales and operating earnings for the year were primarily driven by lower realized prices for both potash and phosphate, partially offset by higher potash volumes. Full year selling, general and administrative (SG&A) expenses were $427 million compared to $410 million last year. Net cash provided by operating activities was $1.9 billion.

CF receives air permits

CF Industries Holdings Inc. today reported that regulators in Louisiana and Iowa have issued final air emission permits related to the company’s capacity expansion projects in both states. The Donaldsonville, Louisiana project consists of new urea and UAN plants scheduled to come on stream in the second half of 2015 and a new ammonia plant in 2016. The Port Neal, Iowa project consists of new ammonia and urea plants scheduled to come on stream in 2016.

“We are pleased that we have reached a key milestone in our capacity expansion projects in Louisiana and Iowa,” said Stephen R. Wilson, CF chairman and CEO. “With the issuance of these permits, we remain on track to begin construction activities at both sites this summer and believe that our projects will be among the first in North America to be in production.”