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Global Nitrogen Quarterly

Green Markets

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Global Nitrogen Quarterly:
Supply & Demand, Production Costs and Pricing

Current research from Green Markets gives you unprecedented visibility into the global nitrogen market.
Your detailed monitor of the forces shaping global nitrogen prices. This research delivers informed analysis, estimates and forecasts of the global nitrogen market that you won’t find anywhere else.
Overview and Outlook
  • Nitrogen Outlook — a review of our forecasts for the global Nitrogen market, with a focus on urea and ammonia
  • Natural Gas — analysis of the North America natural gas market and the area as a low-cost producing region against the global backdrop
  • Historical Price Snapshot — historical urea pricing vs. farm incomes, and corn prices
Supply and Demand
  • Global Supply and Demand— a global overview of projected capacity vs. our estimated demand curve
  • North America Scenario — an in-depth look at North American nitrogen projects, with an examination of how different levels of project completions affect the supply/demand structure
  • Implied Demand — estimates of implied fertilizer demand out to 2020, based off of linear regressions tied to Bloomberg Global GDP forecasts and World Harvested Land
  • Import-Export — base line assumptions for both country level demand and import/export assumptions for major producing and consuming nations for both urea and ammonia
Capacities and Inventory
  • World Capacity Overview — our global capacity assumptions for ammonia, urea, ammonium nitrate, and UAN
  • Nitrogen capacities — for Americas and Europe, Africa, Asia and Australia, and China
  • Inventory — a look at both U.S. and Chinese inventory levels
  • Operational Capability — a look at production levels in recent history vs. theoretical nameplate capacities and implied consumption
  • Global Factory Output — the model tracks individual factory output, at the country level. List of over 450 nitrogen producers
Urea Cost Curve
  • Production Costs Analysis — comparison of cost basis at the country and manufacture level
Research

CF closes deal

CF Industries Holdings Inc. has announced that it has closed on the acquisition of all of the outstanding interests it did not already own in Canadian Fertilizers Limited (CFL) for total cash consideration of approximately C$910 million. CFL owns the largest nitrogen fertilizer complex in Canada, located in Medicine Hat, Alberta.

This acquisition has increased CF Industries’ annual marketable nitrogen volume by approximately 425,000 gross tons of ammonia and 275,000 tons of urea. The Medicine Hat complex has two ammonia plants with total annual capacity of 1,250,000 tons and a urea plant with annual capacity of 810,000 tons. Prior to the close of the transactions, CFL’s results were included in CF Industries’ financial statements as a consolidated variable interest entity.

In other news, CF also reported that its board of directors has declared a $0.40 per share dividend on its common stock. The dividend will be payable on May 30, 2013 to stockholders of record as of May 17, 2013.

OCI announces debottleneck

Orascom Construction Industries reports that it plans a US$100 million debottleneck at its OCI Beaumont plant in Texas. It will involve both methanol and ammonia and is scheduled for completion during the second half of 2014 with full financial impact during 2015. It is expected to increase methanol capacity by approximately 25 percent to 875,000 mt/y and ammonia capacity by approximately 15 percent to 292,000 mt/y.

PotashCorp 1Q earnings up 13 percent

Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc. posted first quarter earnings of $556 million ($0.63 per diluted share) on sales of $2.1 billion, up 13 percent from the year-ago $491 million ($0.56 per share) on sales of $1.74 billion.

“With farmers around the world motivated to capitalize on the link between fertility and profitability, the first quarter gave us an opportunity to demonstrate our ability to deliver,” said PotashCorp President and Chief Executive Officer Bill Doyle. “We had significant growth in our potash performance as global buyers returned to the market in earnest after taking a brief pause late in 2012. This environment enabled us to deliver earnings near the top end of our guidance and laid the foundation for what we believe will be a successful year.”

PotashCorp drops takeover attempt

Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc. said today that it has concluded that now is not the time to pursue the opportunity to buy Israel Chemicals Ltd. Instead, it will focus its energies on other options to maximize shareholder value.

PotashCorp said while the transaction would have had tremendous benefit, that there must be receptivity to foreign investment and certainty in the rules that govern such investment.

The Week in Fertilizer Stocks

The Week in Fertilizer Stocks

Producer Symbol Price Week Ago Year Ago
Agrium AGU 92.34 92.07 88.19
CF Industries CF 191.19 178.06 192.24
CVR Partners UAN 25.47 24.54 27.42
Intrepid Potash IPI 18.47 17.69 24.43
Mosaic MOS 60.83 57.39 53.20
PotashCorp* POT 40.84 38.25 44.28
Rentech Nitrogen RNF 35.68 31.45 25.14
Terra Nitrogen TNH 213.91 197.59 259.66
Distribution/Retail
Andersons Inc. ANDE 54.04 51.30 50.56
Deere & Co. DE 86.03 82.57 81.44
Scotts SMG 44.34 43.59 52.24
* represents three-for-one stock split

Compass fertilizer results off

Compass Minerals reported a drop in operating earnings for its Specialty Fertilizer business to $15.4 million on sales of $54 million, down from the year-ago $20.7 million on sales of $58.5 million. Sales volumes dropped to 88,000 st from the year-ago 96,000 st, the prices nudged up — average sales price of $615/st versus the year-ago $613/st. The company attributed the volume drop mainly to sulfate of potash supply constraints.

Company-wide, Compass saw an increase in net income to $46.4 million on sales of $383.7 million, up from the year-ago $39.9 million and $315.3 million, respectively. This was attributed to a rebound in the company’s salt business, which saw a surge in sales due to late winter snows. Year-ago salt sales were weak due to a particularly warm winter.

ICL weighs offshore phos mine, says report

Israel Chemicals Ltd. is weighing a $500 million offshore phosphate mine, according to a report in today’s The Marker, economic daily newspaper. The report said that an ICL team is looking at sites in Vietnam, Kazakhstan, China, the U.S., Brazil and even Togo. The newspaper said that ICL wanted to make a decision on the investment by the end of 2013.

ICL would not comment on the report. However, it comes less than a week after Israel’s new Health Minister Yael German came out strongly against the proposed phosphate mine at Sde Barir near the town of Arad in southern Israel on health grounds. Earlier this month ICL CEO Stefan Borgas warned that the company had reached an important crossroads regarding the future of Israel’s phosphate industry and that without the new mine local phosphate operations would halt within ten years.

Workers at Rotem Amfert, the ICL phosphate and fertilizer subsidiary, have launched a protest campaign against the Health Ministry and its position on the new mine.