will approve Phase 1 of its Jansen potash project in Saskatchewan, Canada, within three to four months, according to a Bloomberg report.
BHP said earlier this month that the Stage 1 project remains on track to be presented to the group’s Board of Directors for a Final Investment Decision (FID) in the middle of the 2021 calendar year (GM April 23, p. 1).
Scotiabank analyst Ben Isaacson said in an April 26 note there will be market demand for Phase 1 potash by 2030, the estimated year for completion, if approved. The forecast comes despite feedback from BHP shareholders that they largely do not want more capital invested in the project. However, analysts cite BHP’s CEO Mike Henry as continuing to discuss potash as favorable in the long-term.
Jansen Stage 1, should it go ahead, will require another US$5.3-$5.7 billion to be completed, according to BHP estimates, and would provide 4.3-4.5 million mt/y of potassium chloride production capacity. The company already will have sunk US$2.972 billion into the current investment program to complete the shafts at Jansen; that program is now 91 percent complete.
In February, Henry was reported to have brought in external consultants to review “all aspects” of the Jansen potash project ahead of the upcoming FID decision, according to a UBS AG note of Feb 23, as cited by Bloomberg (GM Feb 26, p. 1). Henry was reported at the time not to be happy that it had taken the mining group a decade to get where they were on the project.