What a difference a year makes. This time last year, major fertilizer producers Nutrien Ltd., Saskatoon, The Mosaic Co., Tampa, and CF Industries Holdings Inc., Deerfield, Ill., were all in the loss column for third-quarter 2020 (GM Nov. 6, 2020). For third-quarter 2021, all three, spurred on by skyrocketing fertilizer prices, are expected to move far into the black according to the Bloomberg Consensus, the average calculation from major analysts.
Nutrien, which posted a year-ago loss of $587 million, mainly due to a non-cash impairment of $823 million primarily attributable to its phosphate business, is expected to have a third-quarter net income of $664.7 million and adjusted EBITDA of $1.53 billion, according to the projection.
Mosaic is expected to have net income of $634.7 million versus a year-ago loss of $6.2 million, while CF’s projection is for $238.4 million in net income, up from a loss of $28 million.
CF stated on Sept. 24 that in light of the recent developments affecting its U.K. operations (GM Sept. 17, p. 1), it was evaluating whether an impairment charge with respect to its business in the U.K. may be required. As of June 30, 2021, CF’s investment in that business was approximately $850 million. This includes property, plant, and equipment of approximately $590 million, and goodwill and other intangible assets of approximately $370 million. The operations accounted for approximately 2 percent of CF’s consolidated gross margin for the year ended Dec. 31, 2020.
On Sept. 15, CF announced the halt of operations at both its Billingham and Ince manufacturing complexes in the U.K. due to high natural gas prices, though Billingham ammonia production has since resumed. The average daily market price of natural gas at the National Balancing Point (NBP), the major natural gas trading point for the U.K. during the period from Sept. 1-20, 2021, was $19.79/mmBtu, representing a more-than-500 percent increase over the $3.20/mmBtu average daily market price of natural gas at NBP for the full year 2020.
Nutrien and Mosaic are expected to release results after markets close on Monday, Nov. 1, while the CF release will be on Nov. 3.
| Nutrien | Estimated 3Q-2021 | Actual 3Q-2020 |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $1.53 billion | $670 million |
| Net Income | $664.7 million | ($587 million) |
| Revenues | $5.6 billion | $4.2 billion |
| Mosaic | Estimated 3Q-2021 | Actual 3Q-2020 |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $1.06 billion | $438 million |
| Net Income | $634.7 million | ($6.2 million) |
| Revenues | $3.7 billion | $2.38 billion |
| CF Industries | Estimated 3Q-2021 | Actual 3Q-2020 |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $489.6 million | $204 million |
| Net Income | $238.4 million | ($28 million) |
| Revenues | $1.39 billion | $847 million |