Canadian potash producers announced summer fill programs on June 18-19, with prices falling in the $285-$290/st FOB range out of Midwest Cornbelt terminals for orders placed by the close of business on June 27.
Nutrien Ltd. was first out of the gate on June 18, posting fill prices of $290/st FOB Midwest terminals and $265/st FOB NOLA barge for third-quarter supply. Those postings are in effect for orders placed through June 27 and delivered by Sept. 30. Nutrien said all orders received after June 27 will be $25/st higher for delivery on Oct. 1 or later.
“The overall state of the global potash market and the strong outlook for commodity prices means that we expect a very strong uptake to this program,” Nutrien said. “We have a tight allocation of supply for Q3 following our summer mine shutdowns, and we will close the order book early if we reach our targets earlier than June 27.”
The Mosaic Company followed on June 19, announcing potash summer fill offers for orders placed by June 27 and shipped by Sept. 30 at $285/st FOB Cornbelt river warehouses, $290/st FOB Cornbelt inland warehouses, and $295/st rail-DEL to most Cornbelt locations. The company said it will participate in barge summer fill offers “on a spot basis,” but indicated no firm price levels for barge fill tons.
Mosaic is also posting a $25/st increase for orders placed after June 27 and shipped in the fourth quarter.
In its June 18 announcement, Nutrien stressed that “any orders received for prompt application will remain at spring season prices.” Green Markets has reported a Cornbelt potash price range of roughly $305-$325/st FOB for much of the spring season. The last official potash postings from Nutrien and Mosaic were announced in January at $330-$335/st FOB Midwest terminals (GM Jan. 11, p. 13), up $10/st from the winter fill offers posted by both companies.
The summer fill announcements follow a bullish take on potash delivered on May 28’s Investor Day by Susan Jones, Nutrien’s Executive Vice President and CEO of Potash, who said Nutrien expects expanded potash sales and capacity at stable prices (GM May 31, p. 1).
Nutrien also announced in May (GM May 17, p. 1) that it plans to cut production capacity at its Vanscoy potash mine in Saskatchewan from 2.2 million mt to 1.7 million mt in the third quarter of 2019. The company plans to increase production at its lower-cost mines, particularly the 6.5 million mt/y Rocanville mine, where a $3 billion expansion was completed in the fall of 2017 (GM Oct. 13, 2017).
Denver-based Intrepid Potash Inc. told Green Markets on June 20 that it has not yet released a summer fill program for potash, but internal discussions are underway. The company’s last postings include 60 percent standard MOP at $350/st FOB Moab and Wendover, Utah; 60 percent granular at $340/st FOB Carlsbad, N.M., and $355/st FOB Moab and Wendover; and 62 percent standard at $347/st FOB Carlsbad.