Three major North American fertilizer companies are expected to see a tripling or doubling in earnings results for the fourth-quarter ending Dec. 31, 2021, according to the Bloomberg Consensus, the average estimate from major financial analytical firms.
CF Industries Holdings Inc., Deerfield, Ill., and Nutrien Ltd., Saskatoon, are both expected to triple their fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA compared to year-ago levels, while The Mosaic Co., Tampa, would more than double its results.
CF, which will release results on Feb. 15, is expected to show fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $1.2 billion, according to the analyst average, more than tripling the year-ago $338 million. The analyst range was $906 million to $1.34 billion. Full-year analyst estimates are $2.67 billion, up from 2020’s $1.35 billion.
Analysts are projecting fourth-quarter Nutrien adjusted EBITDA at $2.41 billion, versus the year-ago $768 million. Full-year adjusted EBITDA is seen as $7.07 billion, up from $3.67 billion. Nutrien will release results on Feb. 16.
Mosaic, which will release data Feb. 22, would more than double its fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA, with the analyst estimate at $1.25 billion, up from the year-ago actual $508 million. Full-year adjusted EBITDA was put at $3.6 billion, up from 2020’s $1.56 billion.
Bloomberg Consensus
| CF | 4Q-21 | Full-Year 21 |
| Net Income | $678.1 M | $922.6 M |
| Revenue | $2.48 B | $6.45 B |
| Adj. EBITDA | $1.2 B | $2.67 B |
| Adj. Dil. EPS | $3.54 | $5.15 |
| Mosaic | 4Q-21 | Full-Year 21 |
| Net Income | $720.8 M | $1.73 B |
| Revenue | $3.83 B | $12.4 B |
| Adj. EBITDA | $1.25 B | $3.6 B |
| Adj. Dil. EPS | $1.96 | $5.07 |
| Nutrien | 4Q-21 | Full-Year 21 |
| Net Income | $1.33 B | $3.3 B |
| Revenue | $6.44 B | $26.3 B |
| Adj. EBITDA | $2.41 B | $7.07 B |
| Adj. Dil. EPS | $2.35 | $6.06 |