U.S. growers are expected to produce a record high 14.0 billion bushels of corn this year, according to USDA’s latest Crop Production report, released on Nov. 8. The report also forecasts increased soybean and cotton production, fueled by significant yield increases over last year.
USDA’s 14.0 billion corn estimate is up 1 percent from the previous forecast, and up a full 30 percent from 2012. Based on conditions as of Nov. 1, corn yields are expected to average 160.4 bushels/acre, up 5.1 bushels from the previous forecast, and 37.0 bushels above the 2012 average. If realized, this will be the highest average yield since 2009, with corn growers in 18 states expected to achieve record yields this year.
The increased production figures come in despite a smaller harvested corn crop. Corn area harvested for grain is forecast at 87.2 million acres, down 2 percent from the previous forecast, and down slightly from 2012. USDA also lowered its estimate of area planted to corn this year, reporting a 2 percent drop from its earlier estimate, to 95.3 million acres.
USDA also released the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) on Nov. 8, which showed corn ending stock for 2013/14 up 32 million bushels, to 1.89 billion bushels. USDA estimates increases to total corn use, which it said would offset much of the supply increase, while corn exports are up as well, to 175 million bushels due to larger supplies and lower prices.
The projected season-average farm price range for corn was lowered 30 cents, to $4.10-$4.90 per bushel. “Cash and futures prices have responded to rising yield prospects over the past two months, sharply reducing the outlook for 2013/14 farm prices,” USDA said.
U.S. soybean production is forecast at 3.26 billion bushels, up 3 percent from the previous forecast, and up 7 percent from last year. If realized, production will be the third largest on record. Based on Nov. 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 43.0 bushels/acre, up 1.8 bushels from the previous forecast and up 3.2 bushels from 2012.
Soybean area for harvest in the U.S. is forecast at 75.7 million acres, down 1 percent from both the previous forecast and last year. USDA also reduced the planted area for soybeans, dropping its estimate by 1 percent to 76.5 million acres.
USDA’s WASDE report estimates U.S. soybean exports for 2013/14 at 1.45 billion bushels, up 80 million bushels, reflecting increased supplies and a “record pace of sales through late October.” Soybean ending stocks are projected at 170 million bushels, up 20 million from the September forecast. The U.S. season-average soybean price range for 2013/14 is projected at $11.15-$13.15 per bushel, down $0.35 on both ends of the range.
The WASDE report projects a 26 million bushel increase to U.S. wheat supplies for 2013/14, citing higher estimated production and an increase in expected imports, particularly from Canada. Projected ending stocks for wheat were raised 4 million bushels, while the 2013/14 season-average wheat farm price was estimated at $6.70-$7.30 per bushel, slightly narrower than the September price estimate, but unchanged from that month’s average price.
U.S. cotton growers are expected to produce 13.1 million 480-pound bales this year, up 2 percent from the September forecast, but down 24 percent from last year. Cotton yields are expected to average 808 pounds/harvested acre, up 79 pounds from last year. Upland cotton production was forecast at 12.5 million bales, down 25 percent from 2012, while pima cotton production was estimated at 625,500 bales.
The WASDE report projected the marketing-year average price received by cotton producers at 69-79 cents per pound, down 3 cents/pound from the September average.
U.S. total rice production in 2013/14 was forecast at 188.7 million cwt, up 3.7 mill