USDA on Feb. 20 presented its early-season projections for U.S. crop acreage in 2015/16, with corn acreage estimated at 89 million acres, down 1.6 million from the 2014 final estimate and 2.7 million acres below last year’s Prospective Plantings figure. The national average corn yield is projected at 166.8 bushel/acre, 4.2 bushels lower than the 2014 record, with an “assumed return to more normal growing season weather.”
“Corn plantings are projected to decline for a third straight year with further reductions in the outlook for prices and producer returns,” USDA said. “A return to trend yield from last year’s record high also reduces expected production, but a larger carry-in results in supplies being down only slightly from the 2014/15 record.”
USDA said corn production in 2015 is projected at 13,595 million bushels, down 4 percent from the record 2014 crop, but still the third highest ever. U.S. corn ending stocks for 2015/16 are projected at 1,687 million bushels, down 8 percent from the 9-year high forecast for 2014/15. The season-average farm price is projected at $3.50 per bushel, down $0.15 from the midpoint of the projected range for 2014/15.
Soybean plantings for 2015 are projected at 83.5 million acres, slightly below last year’s final estimate, but 2.0 million above the 2014 Prospective Plantings figure. The national average soybean yield is projected at 46.0 bushels/acre, down 1.8 bushels from last year’s record. Soybean production for 2015 is projected at 3,800 million bushels, 4 percent below last year, mainly due to lower yields.
U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2015/16 are projected at 430 million bushels, the highest since 2006/07, and 12 percent above the level forecast for 2014/15. With increased soybean supplies, higher ending stocks, and lower corn prices, USDA estimated the season-average farm price for soybeans at $9.00 per bushel, down from the $10.20 mid-point of the 2014/15 projected range.
Wheat planted area for 2015 is projected at 55.5 million acres, down 1.3 million acres from 2014. The 2015 all-wheat yield is projected at 45.2 bushels/acre, up from 43.7 bushels/acre from 2014. As a result, wheat production is expected to increase to 2,125 million bushels despite the lower planted area.
U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2015/16 are projected to increase 10 percent from a year earlier, to 763 million bushels. The 2015/16 season-average farm price is projected at $5.10/bushel, down $0.90 from the midpoint of the range projected for 2014/15. USDA said wheat prices are expected to remain under substantial pressure from large world supplies of wheat and corn.
The early USDA projection for 2015 U.S. cotton planted acreage is 9.7 million acres, a decrease of nearly 12 percent from last year, due mainly to relative prices and net returns that favor other crops over cotton. USDA is forecasting a national average cotton yield of 800 pounds/harvested acre, with total U.S. 2015 cotton production projected at 14.0 million bales – 13 percent below 2014, but 8.5 percent above 2013.
The 2015/16 marketing year average price received by U.S. upland cotton producers is projected to range from 55-65 cents/pound, with the mid-point slightly below the 2014/15 estimate of 61 cents per pound. Cotton ending stocks are projected at 4.3 million bales.
Total 2015 rice planted acreage is projected at 2.90 million acres, nearly unchanged from last year, with average field yields forecast at 7,569 pounds/acre, assuming normal weather and planting dates. Total 2015 U.S. rice production is projected to decrease by 1 percent from 2014, to 218 million cwt. Total all-rice ending stocks for 2015/16 are projected at 48.1 million cwt, up 15 percent from 2014/15. The 2015/16 all rice price is projected at $13.10/cwt, down 90 cents from the midpoint of 2014/