Central Florida:
Central Florida DAP trucks were noted firming to $485/st FOB for the week, rising from $415-$430/st FOB at last report. Sources quoted truck-loaded MAP in a wide $475-$505/st FOB range, up from $440-$460/st FOB, with availability at the low end of the range described as “extremely tight.”
U.S. Gulf:
The NOLA barge phosphate markets continued to rocket higher during the week, sources said, driven by an ongoing supply crunch and expectations of an early spring planting season.
Nearby DAP barges were quoted in the $475-$480/st FOB range in early-week trading, with tons reportedly changing hands at $490-$525/st FOB on Jan. 27-28.
The nearby availability of MAP barges was described as practically nonexistent. Tons earmarked for March loading were quoted at $545-$550/st FOB, a sharp increase from the week-ago $470/st FOB March high, while price ideas for nearby loading were universally projected to land north of $500/st FOB at the start of the next trading week if material becomes available. Sources noted nearby price ideas moving considerably higher by Jan. 28.
Sources described the week’s DAP market trading in a wide $475-$525/st FOB range, firming from $410-$430/st FOB at last report. Price ideas for MAP barges were typically floated in the $500-$550/st FOB range, increasing from $440-$460/st FOB in the prior report.
U.S. Exports:
Mosaic reported a pair of phosphate cargoes sold into a single destination in northern Latin America, including an 8,000 mt DAP cargo priced at $460/mt FOB and a 5,000 mt MAP shipment fetching $470/mt FOB. The tons were projected to load in first-half March.
Based on reported trades, the Gulf DAP export market firmed to $460/mt FOB for the week, and MAP values moved higher to $470/mt FOB. Both markets were reported in the $430-$450/mt FOB range one week earlier.
Eastern Cornbelt:
DAP pricing surged to $505-$530/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, up $55-$60/st from the previous week, with the low reported in the Illinois market as the week began. Sources attributed the rapidly firming prices to ongoing tight supply and expectations for a heavy and potentially early spring season. The Cincinnati DAP market was pegged at $515-$525/st FOB at midweek.
MAP prices jumped even higher, firming to $550-$595/st FOB in the region in late January, depending on location and time of shipment. Sources quoted the Cincinnati MAP market at $550-$560/st FOB at midweek, but prices climbed as the week ended.
Western Cornbelt:
Tight supply and expectations for heavy spring demand pushed DAP prices in the Western Cornbelt up to $500-$540/st FOB, up $60-$70/st from last report, depending on location and time of the week. Sources said the St. Louis market started the week at $500/st before firming to $530-$540/st FOB, while Caruthersville pricing was pegged solidly at the $530/st FOB level on Jan. 26.
The DAP market FOB Dubuque, Iowa, was quoted at $530-$540/st FOB, with the St. Paul market reported at $525-$550/st FOB for the week.
MAP was pegged at $555-$595/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, again reflecting a wide range as pricing firmed during the week. Sources pegged the St. Louis market at $580-$595/st FOB at midweek, with pricing at Dubuque reported solidly at the $595/st FOB level on Jan. 28.
Southern Plains:
DAP pricing was quoted at $515-$540/st FOB Catoosa/Inola, up a full $70-$75/st from last report, with the lower numbers confirmed early in the week. The market FOB Houston was reported firmly at the $535/st FOB level at midweek, with delivered tons ranging from $550-$560/st in central Texas.
MAP pricing had reportedly jumped to $555/st FOB Houston and $585/st FOB Catoosa/Inola, provided any available tons could be located. Some sources were quoting the Catoosa/Inola MAP market closer to the $600/st FOB level late in the week.
South Central:
Warehouse DAP prices were reported at $510-$530/st FOB in the South Central region, up a full $75/st from the prior week, with the high confirmed in the Arkansas market and the low reported earlier in the week at Memphis and out of spot river warehouses in Kentucky.
Southeast:
DAP and MAP prices at Aurora, N.C., firmed to $480/st FOB during the week, up $15/st from the previous week and some $45-$50/st higher than postings at the beginning of the year.
Saudi Arabia:
Phosphates loading from Saudi Arabia were valued in the $400-$405/mt FOB range, lifting from $390-$395/mt FOB reported one week earlier.
China:
The price of DAP has moved up dramatically, with producers pushing for even higher levels with limited stocks. Sources put the price at $440-$445/mt FOB, with producers quoting $500-$505/mt FOB at week’s end.
Sources said hitting the $500/mt FOB mark is a target for the producers, but not one that will be hit soon. Traders are expecting to see $450/mt FOB on the table as the new week begins, however.
There is limited DAP for the same reason other products are in short supply out of China. COVID-19 restrictions, limited energy to run the plants, and stepped-up environmental inspections are all hitting the phosphate producers. The COVID-19 situation is of particular concern because so many of the phosphate plants are in areas hit with sporadic hot spots, forcing complete closures of shops and factories.
In addition, the Lunar New Year, when workers traditionally get a week off, begins on Feb. 12. Many of the plant operators are extending the so-called Golden Week to two weeks in a move designed to help address workplace restrictions to combat the coronavirus.
India:
Buyers have indicated they might be willing to go up in their DAP pricing ideas. Unfortunately for them, said one trader, their ideas for a delivered price are still below the export price set by producers from Saudi Arabia to China.
Few buyers appear willing to break the $400/mt CFR level. The lowest price offered out of China this week was $440/mt FOB, with a more realistic price closer to $445/mt FOB. Likewise, the Saudis are reportedly also claiming their price is around $400/mt FOB.
So far, DAP is not in strong demand in India. Sources said a few recent inquiries have led to talks, but nothing has been settled.
Trade Data Monitor reported that India imported 6 million mt of DAP for January-November 2020, against 5.6 million mt during the same period in 2019. November 2020 imports were at 505,000 mt against 490,000 mt in 2019.
Saudi Arabia, China, and Morocco were the main suppliers of DAP in 2020, sending a total of 4.8 million mt during the first 11 months of the year. The imports included more expensive spot tons and a lot of lower-cost contracted material. The average price for DAP during the first 11 months of 2020 was calculated by Trade Data Monitor at $328.38/mt CFR, compared with $379.23/mt CFR for the same period in 2019.
Russia:
Exports of DAP were down slightly in the January-November 2020 period compared with 2019. The export number for 2020 was reported at 1.39 million mt, against 1.45 million mt for the same period in 2019. Sources said the difference was probably due to just one less cargo recorded in 2020 or one extra in 2019.
November 2020 exports were reported at 131,000 mt, up from 100,000 mt in November 2019. The main recipient in November 2020 was Kenya, which took 27,000 mt of DAP. The rest of the buyers took less than 20,000 mt each that month.
Morocco:
Morocco exported 4.4 million mt of DAP for January-November 2020, compared with 2.6 million mt for the same period in 2019, Trade Data Monitor reported. India was the main buyer at 1.3 million mt in 2020, with Brazil second at 966,000 mt.
Brazil:
Market watchers noted import MAP values firming to $485-$490/mt CFR for the week, rising from $445-$450/mt CFR in the prior report. Traders are calling the market at $485-$490/mt CFR at Paranagua, with sellers targeting $550/mt CFR. Trading rumored at $500-$510/mt CFR went unconfirmed on Jan. 28.
Inland buyers are especially concerned about the apparent lack of MAP. At the same time, sellers are not advertising their prices because of the highly fluid nature of the market.
Rondonopolis is now pegged at $592-$610/mt FOB ex-warehouse, against a high price of $561/mt FOB one week earlier. The lower end of Sorriso held even, but the upper edge jumped about $30/mt to $610/mt FOB. The barter rate for 1 mt of MAP shifted to 75 bags of corn or 21 bags of soybeans.
| Brazil MAP Prices | ||
| Terminal/City | US$/mt FOB | |
| Week ending 01/22 | Week Ending 01/29 | |
| Rondonopolis | 530-561 | 592-610 |
| Sorriso | 540-569 | 540-610 |