Central Florida:
Nothing new was reported in the Central Florida phosphate market. DAP trucks were quoted at $530/st FOB, unmoved from one week earlier, while sources noted truck-loaded MAP values steady at $545-$560/st FOB.
U.S. Gulf:
Players described divided sentiment on the week’s NOLA barge phosphate markets, with DAP edging lower amid a quiet week of trading, while MAP added to its week-ago top end.
The nearby DAP low was noted slipping to $518/st FOB from the prior week’s $520/st FOB floor, based on reported trading of imports due into NOLA in March, while domestic barges set the week’s high at $525/st FOB, softening from last week’s $528/st FOB ceiling.
MAP barges held firm at the prior $555/st FOB floor based on reported offers, although most nearby trading was expected to draw values at $560/st FOB or above. Sources described recent sales topping out at $565/st FOB.
Players attributed the continued slow market to lingering uncertainty regarding the weather. Temperatures improved markedly in much of the country from the prior week’s widespread freeze, giving some traders hope that more favorable conditions were on the horizon. “The market remains very quiet,” said one source, “but if the weather holds, this could be the calm before the storm.”
DAP barges were reported trading at $518-$525/st FOB for the week, dipping from $520-$528/st FOB at last report. Sources quoted MAP barges at $555-$565/st FOB, up from $555-$562.50/st FOB in the prior report.
U.S. Exports:
Mosaic reported a 7,000 mt DAP cargo selling into a single destination in northern Latin America. The material was priced at $580/mt FOB, with loading scheduled for late March.
The Gulf export phosphate markets were seen climbing to $580/mt FOB based on reported sales, a $50/mt FOB increase from the previous $530/mt FOB level.
Eastern Cornbelt:
DAP remained at $565-$585/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the Cincinnati market quoted at the $580/st FOB level. MAP was reported at $610-$635/st FOB in the region, down $15/st at the upper end of the range, with the low confirmed at Cincinnati and the high inland.
Western Cornbelt:
DAP was reported at $550-$570/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, down $10-$20/st from last report, with the St. Louis market pegged at $550-$565/st FOB. MAP was quoted at $600-$635/st FOB in the region in late February, with the low again reported at St. Louis.
The St. Paul market had reportedly slipped to $565-$575/st FOB for DAP and $630-$650/st FOB for MAP, while pricing at Catoosa/Inola was pegged at $560-$570/st FOB for DAP and $625-$630/st FOB for MAP.
California:
The MAP market was quoted at a solid $690/st FOB or DEL in California following multiple increases that took place earlier in the month.
Pacific Northwest:
MAP pricing in late February was reported at a firm $677/st FOB Aurora; $680/st DEL in Washington, Oregon, and northern Idaho; $670/st DEL in southern Idaho and Utah; and $660/st DEL in Montana.
Western Canada:
While sources continued to report some limited river-open MAP prices circulating for as low as C$895-$905/mt DEL in Western Canada, most quoted spring tons firmly in the C$950-$960/mt DEL range for new offers. Sources reported FOB warehouse pricing in roughly the same range in early February, depending on location.
Saudi Arabia:
Most-recent Saudi Arabia phosphate pricing continued to be heard in the $425-$515/mt FOB range, steady from one week earlier.
China:
Small DAP sales to Thailand and the Philippines reported netbacks to China of $510-$515/mt FOB. The dearth of material for export and steady demand from around the globe now has producers asking $520-$550/mt FOB, depending on how many tons are being discussed.
As with nitrogen producers, the Chinese government sent the same notice to the phosphate producers to step up production to ensure plenty of phosphates and NPKs for the domestic market before they entertain exporting any material.
For now, producers have an incentive to focus on the domestic market. Sources said the domestic price offers a dramatically better return than the few tons that can be shipped offshore. Sources said the extra costs related to getting the product from the plant to an export terminal are high enough to cause producers to think twice about shipping their material to another country.
Sources noted that some plants are facing reduced output issues because of limitations imposed to battle COVID-19. Even if a plant is seen as COVID-free, the virus continues to disrupt the transportation system necessary to move the material.
India:
Tenders that traders initially thought might help set new public DAP pricing levels now do not look so promising.
A DAP tender for 50,000 mt by RCF closed with no offers on Feb. 22 after being re-set from Feb. 15. The company has not announced what it will do, but has removed the tender from its website. If it were planning to extend the tender, it would have posted a corrigendum to the original documents as it did when it earlier extended the closing.
Another tender for 350,000 mt of DAP is still scheduled to close on March 12, but NFL has made some changes to the tender. The company is now looking for 350,000-800,000 mt to be delivered in various lots between May 2021 and March 2022.
Reportedly, NFL may be in the process of scrapping the tender in favor of a negotiated deal with SABIC and PhosAgro. The tender is still on the company’s website, leading one observer to note that maybe the arrangement with the DAP producers is not yet a done deal.
According to sources, the two producers will supply up to 800,000 mt of DAP during the May-March period. However, the arrangement so far only includes a commitment for the tonnage. Nothing was said about pricing. Sources said the normal practice is to settle on a price, based on published numbers, about one month before the vessel departs for India.
Bangladesh:
A tender for 800,000 mt is expected to be called soon. The tender would be about twice what BCIC usually calls for in a tender, said sources. The tender is for a series of deliveries to take place over multiple months.
Sources said the fertilizer buying arm of the government is still looking to see if it can afford such a large order. In the past China has been the main supplier of DAP to Bangladesh. The current price in China of $510-$515/mt FOB could lead to a landed price closer to $600/mt once bagging and transportation is counted in.
Nepal:
A tender for 25,000 mt of DAP closes March 5. The product is to be bagged and delivered to a Nepalese inland warehouse. Landed costs of the product could be about $600/mt CFR bagged, based on the current price trend in China
Indonesia:
A tender was closed this week for 55,000 mt of DAP. No results have been announced.
Imports of DAP in 2020 were recorded at 352,000 mt, according to Trade Data Monitor, up 14 percent from 309,000 mt in 2019. The main supplier in 2020 was China at 275,000 mt. Vietnam supplied an additional 76,000 mt.
Russia:
Russian exports of DAP in 2020 slipped to 1.5 million mt from 1.6 million mt in 2019, according to Trade Data Monitor. The top two buyers were India at 295,000 mt and the U.S. at 131,000 mt. No other country exceeded 100,000 mt. All told, 26 countries each bought between 10,000 mt and 94,000 mt from Russia.
Brazil:
Last-done MAP imports at Brazil were generally quoted at $600-$610/mt CFR, with most sources writing off rumored sub-$600/mt CFR transactions as no longer available. The market was previously reported in the $570-$600/mt CFR range.
On the heels of a PhosAgro deal last week at $600/mt CFR, sources in Brazil now report the market at $600-$610/mt FOB.
Demand is expected to remain strong through the second quarter, possibly firming the price into the $600s/mt CFR. Sources said that while the price is expected to keep moving up, the rate of the increase is expected to slow compared with earlier price jumps.
Rondonopolis has moved up to $710-$721/mt FOB ex-warehouse, according to local sources. The move reflects the general issue buyers have inland.
The NPK producers are complaining of limited tons of MAP – along with limited urea and MOP – for their factories. Part of the shortage is caused by a lack of trucks to move MAP from the ports to inland distribution centers because a delayed crop harvest is tying up the trucks.
The barter rates remain steady for 1 mt of MAP for 75 bags of corn and 31 bags of soybeans.