Central Florida:
Truck-loaded DAP was quoted at $530/st FOB for the week, steady from the prior report. Sources called Central Florida MAP trucks unchanged at $545-$560/st FOB.
U.S. Gulf:
Sources reported firming values for DAP and MAP barges during the week.
MAP pricing registered the largest upswing, with sources quoting a $572.50/st FOB floor for material loading in March, up from $555/st FOB at last report. The top of the nearby range was reported at $585/st FOB, up $20/st from the previous week. Barges loading in April and May were offered in the $555-$565/st FOB range, while early-week offers rumored at $565/st FOB for nearby loading went unconfirmed.
The DAP floor was noted at $518-$522/st FOB for the week, while most reported the top of the nearby market rising to $530/st FOB, up from $525/st FOB at last report. Offers for domestic material loading in April and May were quoted at $525/st FOB.
The nearby DAP market firmed to $518-$530/st FOB, up from $518-$525/st FOB in the prior report. MAP barges tracked in the $572.50-$585/st FOB range for the week, up from $555-$565/st FOB. The firming numbers were generally attributed to ongoing tight supply and improved weather conditions.
U.S. Exports:
Nothing new was reported on the Gulf phosphate export markets. Last-done included a 7,000 mt DAP load priced at $580/mt FOB. Slated to load in late March, the cargo was sold to a single destination in northern Latin America.
With no updated business reported, the DAP and MAP markets continued to be reported at the week-ago $580/mt FOB level
Eastern Cornbelt:
DAP was quoted at $557-$580/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, down $5-$8/st from last report, with the low reported at Ottawa. MAP pricing fell in the $600-$635/st FOB range in the region in early March, with the upper end out of inland warehouses. Sources pegged the Cincinnati market at $565-$575/st FOB for DAP and $600-$610/st FOB for MAP.
Western Cornbelt:
DAP remained at $550-$570/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the St. Louis market pegged at $550-$565/st FOB in early March. MAP was quoted at $615-$650/st FOB in the region, up slightly from last report, with the low again confirmed at St. Louis.
Northern Plains:
DAP pricing FOB St. Paul was reported at $565-$575/st FOB in early March, with MAP quoted in the $630-$650/st range FOB St. Paul.
Great Lakes:
DAP was pegged at $580-$605/st FOB in the Great Lakes region, with the lower numbers reported in Wisconsin and the higher end FOB Webberville. MAP was quoted at $610-$635/st FOB in the region in early March, with the upper end again reported at Webberville.
Northeast:
DAP pricing was quoted at $585/st FOB East Liverpool during the week, down $10/st from last report. MAP was reported at $620/st FOB East Liverpool in early March, with the Fairless Hills market pegged at $615-$620/st FOB, depending on time of shipment.
Saudi Arabia:
Saudi Arabian miner and fertilizer producer Ma’aden is planning to increase fertilizer production capacity later in 2021 in expectation of increasing demand, Reuters reported. The expanded output is expected to come from the JV Ma’aden Waad al-Shamal Phosphate Complex (MWSPC), currently operating at 70 percent of a nameplate 3 million mt/y capacity.
MWSPC, a joint venture between Ma’aden, SABIC, and Mosaic, is projected to increase capacity to 85 percent by the end of the year, en route to an anticipated 100 percent capacity utilization in first-quarter 2022.
China:
Sources reported that DAP prices keep moving up with little restraint. A sale to Central America is reported to have a netback of $560-$570/mt FOB. Likewise, a deal with a Thai buyer showed a netback of $570-$575/mt FOB. Producers are talking about $580/mt FOB without hesitation.
Sources said they see little to slow down the price increases. Demand is expected to remain strong, especially from India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. All three countries have buyers looking for tons or have companies holding tenders for DAP. Likewise, all three are also bidding at prices well below market levels. Sources said Australia is also beginning to look seriously at more imports.
With four major buyers looking for tons, sources said producers have little incentive to reduce prices. One trader noted that even if the Moroccans and Saudis work at full capacity, the demand from these four countries will still require more tonnage. One trader estimated an additional 500,000 mt/month would have to come from China to make sure all needs are covered.
Indonesia:
A tender for 55,000 mt of DAP closed on March 3. Sources said a computer glitch is forcing the buyer to resort to assembling a paper tally to determine the winner.
Australia:
Sources said Australia is currently running a deficit in DAP. Buyers are looking for deals, but only finding higher prices.
The first semester of the year is the main buying season. In 2020 Australia imported 127,000 mt for January-June, compared with 96,000 mt in the second semester, according to Trade Data Monitor. All told, Australia imported 223,000 mt of DAP in 2020.
Exports were the reverse of imports. Second-half 2020 exports were at 349,000 mt, against first half exports of 69,000 mt. Exports for 2020 were at 418,000 mt, against 348,000 mt in 2019.
Brazil:
MAP prices keep increasing. Sources put the Paranagua MAP price at $615-$620/mt CFR, with an emphasis on the higher end of the range. One seller reported a port-side equivalent price of $645/mt CFR based on a deal inland. At the same time, producers are asking $635/mt CFR, but with no takers.
The upward movement is expected to continue as inland buyers clamor for more tons. The demand is evident in prices from local distributors. Rondonopolis is now pegged at $725-$737/mt FOB ex-warehouse, up about $10/mt in just one week.
Even though the price of MAP keeps going up, farmers are seeing strong returns on their crops, leaving the barter rates steady. Sources said 1 mt of MAP still goes for 75 bags of corn or 31 bags of soybeans.