Central Florida:
DAP trucks loading from Central Florida were reported at $620/st FOB, unchanged from the prior report. MAP postings were quoted at $655/mt FOB, also steady from one week earlier.
U.S. Gulf:
Sources reported softer NOLA DAP and MAP barge markets for the week, noting values on imported material slipping lower compared to prior levels.
Imported DAP cargoes were traded in the $600-$605/st FOB range, shy of the week-ago $610/st FOB floor, while limited August-loading domestic volumes reported at $615/st FOB established the week’s high.
Sales and offers of MAP were steady at a $650/st FOB high for domestic tons, while imports were noted trading in the $640-$645/st FOB range, $5/st below week-ago levels.
An announcement that exports of fertilizer from China, including DAP, would be temporarily suspended was not expected to move the U.S. market. “The China news is likely more smoke and mirrors,” said one market player. “(There is) no impact yet, at least for phosphates.” Chinese producers exported 3.2 million mt of DAP in first-half 2021, according to Reuters.
The nearby DAP barge market was quoted in the $600-$615/st FOB range, softening from $610-$615/st FOB at last report. Players noted MAP barges in the $640-$650/st FOB range for the week, down from $645-$650/st FOB in the prior report.
U.S. Exports:
Nothing new was reported on the Gulf export phosphate markets. Last-done spot transactions included a 10,000 mt DAP cargo priced at $660/mt FOB, while a recent 5,000 mt MAP deal was quoted at $685/mt FOB. Both trades carried final destinations in Latin America, with shipping expected no later than early August.
With no new business reported, the Gulf export market remained at $660/mt FOB for DAP and $685/mt FOB for MAP.
Eastern Cornbelt:
DAP was quoted at $640-$655/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, depending on location, with the low reported at Ottawa and East Dubuque. MAP was pegged in a broad range at $675-$700/st FOB, with the low again confirmed at East Dubuque.
The Cincinnati market in early August remained at $645-$650/st FOB for DAP and $680-$690/st FOB for MAP.
Western Cornbelt:
DAP pricing was steady at $640-$650/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the lower end confirmed at St. Louis, Camanche, and Dubuque, Iowa, and the high at Caruthersville.
MAP was quoted in the $675-$700/st FOB range in the region, depending on location, with the low at Camanche. The St. Louis MAP market was pegged at $680-$690/st FOB in early August.
Southern Plains:
DAP prices were pegged at $640-$645/st FOB Catoosa/Inola and $660/st FOB Houston. The MAP market remained at $690/st FOB Houston, while pricing at Catoosa/Inola was reported in a wider range at $680-$700/st FOB, depending on supplier.
South Central:
DAP was unchanged at $640-$650/st FOB terminals in the South Central region, depending on location, with the low confirmed at Memphis.
Southeast:
MAP postings remained at $640/st FOB Aurora, N.C., but Nutrien on July 23 raised its DAP posting at that location to $650/st FOB. The company also confirmed that it is currently sold out of DAP at Aurora and not accepting any new orders for August.
Saudi Arabia:
Sources quoted the Saudi Arabia phosphate market firming to $605-$615/mt FOB, up from $590-$610/mt FOB at last report.
China:
Prices for DAP remained steady in the $590s/mt FOB, mostly because no new spot deals have been done. Sources reported that even before buyers can get out an offer, they are told by producers that there is no product available.
Many of the producers have switched to MAP and NPKs for better netbacks from global buyers, while those staying with DAP are focusing on the domestic market. The Chinese government has made it clear to producers that building stockpiles of material for the domestic market should be the top priority rather than making offshore sales.
Sources do not expect to see prices come off anytime soon unless major phosphate producing countries Russia and Morocco make a play for the Indian market. Sources said as long as India depends largely on China for its DAP, the Chinese producers have little incentive to lower their prices.
Traders said new restrictions related to COVID-19 are slated to take effect on foreign vessels looking to dock at Chinese ports. Reportedly, the new rules will limit the number of foreign ships and require new procedures for processing the crew’s paperwork.
India:
Sources said Indian buyers now seem more willing to pay the high price tied to Chinese DAP, if only there was product available. The public price has not varied from the $570s/mt CFR only because no new spot deals have been concluded.
Brazil:
The MAP price range at Paranagua has spread out, with sources now calling the market at $735-$780/mt CFR. The move reflects the confusion felt by many in the market. While there is still strong demand for MAP, sources said the market has peaked and is heading for a downward correction.
To back up arguments that prices should be coming off, sources said buyers are no longer looking at near-term purchases. All attention seems to be on fourth-quarter needs.
The Rondonopolis price has tightened to just $850/mt FOB ex-warehouse, according to sources. The move comes as MAP dealers face the same transportation problems as nitrogen and potash dealers. There are still many uncertainties about having enough trucks to handle shipments from the ports and then on to their clients.
The barter rate for 1 mt of MAP is now put at 61 bags of corn or 26 bags of soybeans.
Imports of MAP for the January-July period were down slightly, to 2.46 million mt from 2.54 million mt during the same period last year, according to Trade Data Monitor. The major suppliers this year remained Russia at 898,000 mt and Morocco at 895,000 mt. Saudi Arabia and China together supplied 493,000 mt, followed by the U.S. at 120,000 mt.
July imports were up 17 percent, to 460,000 mt from 392,000 mt in July 2020. Morocco dominated the sales at 205,000 mt, followed by China at 86,000 mt and Russia at 83,000 mt. Saudi Arabia and the U.S. combined supplied another 86,000 mt.
January-July 2021 DAP imports were up 29 percent, to 343,000 mt from 266,000 mt last year. The U.S. and Morocco dominated sales at 81,400 mt and 81,200 mt, respectively. China came in with 64,000 mt, followed by Jordan at 44,000 mt.
July 2021 DAP imports were down 26 percent, to 20,000 mt from 27,000 mt last year. The imports this year were divided among China, Saudi Arabia, and Morocco, each sending less than 10,000 mt last month.