Central Florida:
DAP trucks loading from Central Florida remained posted at $620/st FOB, sources noted, unchanged from one week earlier. Players quoted MAP trucks steady at $655/st FOB, also flat from the prior report.
U.S. Gulf:
Players reported minimal action in the NOLA DAP and MAP barge markets for the week.
Nearby lows continued to be voiced at $595/st FOB for imported DAP, while imports were most recently noted changing hands up to a $605/st FOB high. Domestically produced DAP continued to be offered at $615/st FOB. Reports of firming terminal demand at prices comparable to a $615/st FOB NOLA-equivalent suggested strengthening values in the next round of business, some argued.
Last-done MAP volumes continued to be heard even with week-ago lows at $640/st FOB, with some suggesting sentiment firming closer to a $645/st FOB floor during the week. Recent sales and offers were noted at a $650/st FOB high for domestic tons.
In a week of muted trading, sources noted NOLA barge DAP values rolling over from week-ago levels in a $595-$605/st FOB range. MAP barges were similarly unchanged from the prior week at $640-$650/st FOB.
U.S. Imports:
June DAP imports were noted at 91,727 st, firming 129.6 percent from the year-ago 39,947 st. July-June totals stood at 1.30 million st, up 25.3 percent from the year-ago 1.04 million st.
The list of top DAP imports looked very different from years past, thanks to the DOC’s late-2020 and early-2021 rulings in favor of added duties applied to material imported from Morocco and Russia.
Saudi Arabia led 2020-2021 fertilizer year imports with 546,235 st, up 499.5 percent from the year-ago 91,117 st, while Jordan directed 337,857 st of DAP for the period after sending none in the prior fertilizer year. Tons from Australia totaled 181,817 st against zero tons for the year-ago, while both Egypt (44,659 st) and Lithuania (44,659) guided more DAP to the U.S. than either Russia (37,996 st) or Morocco (24,251 st).
July-June MAP/Other imports were noted at 1.04 million st, dropping 39.5 percent from the year-ago 1.72 million st. June imports climbed 268.5 percent, however, to 62,251 st from 16,895 st in the prior year.
Mexico led July-June MAP imports, recording 361,363 st for the period, up 409.5 percent from 70,922 st in the year-ago. Saudi Arabia’s 243,762 st was good for 148.9 percent of its year-ago 97,940 st July-June total, while third-place Russia’s 87,834 st stood 62.9 percent off from the prior-year 236,978 st. Lithuania (79,189 st), Australia (79,263 st), Jordan (74,826 st), and Bulgaria (36,376 st) all outpaced Morocco’s 31,491 st fertilizer-year total, a 97.6 percent decline from that Morocco’s year-ago 1.30 million st haul.
U.S. Exports:
June exports of DAP fell 77.0 percent, to 36,661 st from the year-ago 159,741 st. Exports were counted at 730,843 st for July-June, a 39.0 percent decrease from the year-ago 1.20 million st.
June-July MAP/Other exports softened 23.8 percent to 2.28 million st, down from the year-ago 3.00 million st. June exports slid 63.7 percent, to 98,965 st from the prior-year 272,567 st.
No new transactions were reported on the week’s Gulf export phosphate market. Last-done include a DAP cargo priced at $660/mt FOB and MAP load valued at $685/mt FOB.
Eastern Cornbelt:
DAP remained at $640-$655/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low reported at LaSalle and other river terminals in Illinois. MAP was steady at $675-$695/st FOB, depending on location, with the Ottawa market pegged at the $682/st FOB level. The Cincinnati market was unchanged at $645-$650/st FOB for DAP and $680-$690/st FOB for MAP.
Pricing out of some Michigan warehouses was confirmed at the $675/st FOB level for DAP and up to $715/st FOB for MAP in mid-August.
Western Cornbelt:
DAP pricing reportedly slipped to $635-$650/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the lower end confirmed at St. Louis. MAP was quoted in the $675-$695/st FOB range in the region, depending on location.
Northern Plains:
DAP pricing FOB St. Paul was pegged in the $640-$645/st FOB range in mid-August, with MAP quoted at $675-$695/st FOB. Delivered green MAP in western North Dakota remained at the $725/st level.
Northeast:
DAP remained at a firm $660/st FOB East Liverpool, with MAP pegged at the $710/st FOB level at that location. No phosphate prices were being offered at Fairless Hills in mid-August.
Eastern Canada:
MAP pricing remained at C$985-$1,045/mt FOB in Eastern Canada, depending on location and supplier. The last DAP business was reported at the C$980/mt level FOB Montreal.
Saudi Arabia:
Saudi Arabia phosphate exports firmed to a $615-$630/mt FOB range, sources indicated. The market was previously reported at $610-$615/mt FOB.
China:
The DAP market was quiet and steady. Sources reported some deals at $620-$630/mt FOB, but with limited tonnage available for export.
Producers continue to face more expensive inputs, pushing prices up. Buyers face these higher prices and higher freight rates, pushing the final delivered price to ever higher rates. Sources said while producers are willing to talk with overseas buyers, especially Pakistan and India, most of their emphasis is on taking care of the domestic Chinese market. Therefore, the tons that are shipped offshore are limited.
India:
There are rumors the government will soon raise the maximum retail price for DAP. The increase could be $50-$80/mt. That would take the MRP to $620-$650/mt CFR.
The increase is needed to make DAP purchases attractive in India. However, the price from the producers keeps shifting. Already the Chinese price is pegged at $620/mt FOB and up. At this rate, the price into India would have to be closer to $660/mt CFR for the buyer to make any profit on the deal.
Part of what is hurting the Indian buyers is the rising freight rates that include the costs of waiting at anchorage in Chinese waters to wait for a berthing. The Chinese government is limiting the number of foreign-flag ships allowed in any given port. At the same time, some Chinese ports are experiencing severe labor shortages. All these issues are related to the resurgence of COVID-19 in China.
Brazil:
The MAP price softened and tightened in Paranagua. Sources now put the price at $720-$750/mt CFR. Traders see this move as the beginning of a correction that will lead into softer prices in the fourth quarter.
Rondonopolis is also showing a decline to $830-$850/mt FOB ex-warehouse. The lower price came as more distributors looked to taking care of existing shipping orders instead of looking for more tons for themselves or for regional blenders.
The sellers and buyers inland said they are expecting to see some difficulties in the near future shipping more MAP from the ports to the inland terminals. This concern is expected to slow the downward pressure on prices.
The barter rate for 1 mt of MAP at Sorriso is reported at 100 bags of corn and at Sao Luis at 56 bags of corn.