Central Florida:
DAP loaded to trucks from Central Florida was reported firming to $685/st FOB, rising from $665/st FOB in the prior report. “Local market adjustments” saw the week’s posted MAP price soften $5/st to $690/st FOB, falling from $695/st FOB in the prior report.
Truck-loaded MAP at North Florida was noted lifting to $750/st FOB, a $30/st increase from $720/st FOB in the prior report.
U.S. Gulf:
NOLA barge phosphate pricing moved sideways for the week. Nearby DAP barges were generally quoted changing hands at a $675/st FOB low, increasing from the week-ago $660/st FOB as domestic producers shifted loading windows into a later-Q4 range.
Domestically produced DAP loading from upriver warehouses continued to sell at a $660/st FOB NOLA netback, sources confirmed, with shipping slated for now through December. Most saw NOLA DAP topping out at $680-$685/st FOB, dipping from the week-ago $690/st FOB high. Trading rumored at $690-$695/st FOB remained unconfirmed on Oct. 14.
Nearby lows for MAP barges at NOLA were steady at the week-ago $765/st FOB, while 30-day highs were reported topping out around $780/st FOB, softening from the prior week’s $785/st FOB ceiling.
The prompt NOLA DAP barge market was reported moving to a $675-$685/st FOB range for the week, a shift from the previous week’s $660-$690/st FOB. MAP barges were quoted at $765-$780/st FOB, softening from the week-ago $765-$785/st FOB.
U.S. Exports:
Last-done spot export continued to be heard at $660/mt FOB for DAP, although sources agreed that indications had moved higher if a new transaction were to conclude today. MAP exports were last quoted at $685/mt FOB.
Eastern Cornbelt:
DAP pricing remained at $725-$750/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the high reported at Ottawa, Ill. The Cincinnati market was pegged in the $735-$740/st FOB range at midweek. MAP was steady at $790-$810/st FOB in the region, with the Cincinnati market quoted at the $805/st FOB level.
In the Southeast, Nutrien reported that its MAP price FOB Aurora, N.C., and White Springs, Fla., had firmed to $750/st FOB, up $30/st from the last posting, with limited supply at both locations.
Western Cornbelt:
DAP pricing was steady $730-$750/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low reported at St. Louis. The MAP market was pegged at $790-$810/st FOB in the region.
California:
MAP pricing jumped to $890-$900/st rail-DEL or FOB California warehouses during the week, up some $40/st from the prior week and roughly $100/st higher than late September levels.
Pacific Northwest:
MAP pricing in the region was quoted at $890/st FOB Aurora or DEL in Washington, Oregon, Nevada, Utah, and Montana, up a full $115/st or more since late September.
Western Canada:
New MAP offers in Western Canada fell in the C$1,140-$1,200/mt FOB or DEL range, depending on location and time of the week, up roughly C$100/mt from last report.
China:
All phosphate fertilizers are affected by the new export rules. Effective Oct. 15, any product that has not cleared customs will not be allowed to be exported.
Sources said the rules seem to be flexible enough to allow some exports from major suppliers such as YUC, but only for long-term contracted tons. The government actions are apparently intended to block any spot deals until prices come down and domestic inventory comes up.
One international trader said even the long-term contracted tons may face a problem, however. Under one reading to the nebulous rules, unless there is a fixed price on the tonnage to be exported, the local officials who must sign off on the sales might withhold their permission.
The new rules have effectively shut down any talk of DAP or MAP exports from China, leaving nothing for traders to discuss.
India:
The Indian government increased the amount of money available for subsidies by $3.8 billion. The money will be used to support nitrogen and phosphate products.The funds will allow for a higher subsidy for DAP and MAP. However, one international trader pointed out that even the proposed increase of about $116/mt for DAP is too little, too late.
The last public price paid by India for DAP was reported at $680/mt CFR, against a maximum retail price of $570/mt. The increased subsidy just barely matches current pricing ideas.
Even as the government announced the increase in subsidies, the Russian news service TASS reported that a memorandum of understanding was signed between the Indian and Russian governments that would provide for more Russian DAP being sent to India.
International traders questioned whether anything would come from this agreement. Sources reported rumors that the base price the Russians were looking for was about $700/mt FOB. This level would be dramatically higher than the current imported price for India.
Even if the Russians come down in price to a level that is more acceptable to the Indian buyers, sources said the producers would not be able to supply as much as is being lost from the Chinese export limitations. At the same time, Russian producers are also facing pressure from their own government to first ensure a plentiful supply of DAP for the domestic market.
Russia:
January-August 2021 DAP exports were down 21 percent, according to Trade Data Monitor, to 834,000 mt from the 1.05 million mt exported during the same period last year.August 2021 DAP exports were down 77 percent, to 27,000 mt from the August 2020 total of 120,000 mt.
Russian MAP exports for January-August 2021 were up 11 percent, to 1.7 million mt from 1.6 million mt during the same period last year. August 2021 MAP exports of 219,000 mt were down less than 1 percent from August 2020 exports of 221,000 mt.
The overall DAP and MAP exports for 2021 in the first eight months of the year were down 1.7 percent, to 2.58 million mt. August 2021 DAP and MAP exports were down 28 percent, to 247,000 mt from 341,000 mt in August 2020.
Brazil:
Deals for MAP were reportedly non-existent as buyers and sellers looked to absorb the meaning of China’s decision to limit exports.
Sources reported some talk at $800-$850/mt CFR for Paranagua, but with nothing sealed. The price did move slightly down on the upper end, creating a new range of $740-$750/mt CFR.
Inland buyers showed a more aggressive nature, with deals reported at $900-$978/mt FOB ex-warehouse. The new price showed a slight increase over the previous week, but not dramatically so, said one source.