Central Florida:
Sources put Central Florida DAP trucks at $685/st FOB for the week, unmoved from the prior period. Truck-loaded MAP was seen firming to $695/st FOB after a single-week dip to $690/st FOB in the prior report.
In the North Florida market, MAP truck pricing was steady at $750/st FOB on Oct. 21.
U.S. Gulf:
Values on DAP and MAP barges loading from NOLA took a step back from week-ago levels, sources said.
Nearby transactions were generally heard bottoming out around the $670/st FOB mark, falling from the prior $675/st FOB floor, while sources described transactions at a $680/st FOB high, down from the week-ago $685/st FOB. A rumored $665/st FOB barge went unconfirmed on Oct. 21.
MAP barges were also seen slipping lower, with players quoting the nearby low at $760/st FOB, a decline from the week-ago $765/st FOB. MAP highs were noted taking a bigger step down, to $765/st FOB from the prior week’s $780/st FOB top.
The prompt barge DAP market was quoted at $670-$680/st FOB for the week, softening from $675-$685/st FOB in the prior report. MAP barges were pegged in the $760-$765/st FOB range, sources said, a drop from $765-$780/st FOB at last report.
U.S. Exports:
Nothing new was reported on the Gulf export phosphate markets, leaving last-done at $660/mt FOB for DAP and $685/mt FOB for MAP.
Eastern Cornbelt:
DAP pricing eased up to $735-$750/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low at Cincinnati and the high reported out of spot Illinois River terminals. MAP was steady at $790-$810/st FOB in the region, with the Cincinnati market quoted at the $800-$805/st FOB level at mid-month.
Out of Michigan warehouses, sources reported current offers at the $790/st FOB level for DAP and up to $860/st FOB for MAP.
Western Cornbelt:
DAP pricing was quoted at $720-$735/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low reported at St. Louis. The MAP market was pegged at $790-$810/st FOB in the region.
Northern Plains:
DAP was reported at $735-$745/st FOB St. Paul, with MAP quoted at the $800-$810/st FOB level at that location. Delivered green MAP offers were pegged at the $870/st level in central North Dakota, up $45/st from last report.
Northeast:
Phosphate pricing FOB East Liverpool, Ohio, was confirmed at $750/st for DAP and $815/st for MAP, up $25-$35/st from late September. DAP offers at Chester, W. Va., were also reported at the $750/st FOB level at midweek. November MAP tons at Fairless Hills were quoted at the $810/st FOB level, while spot tons at Belle Vernon, Pa., were pegged at $800/st FOB.
In the Southeast, Nutrien’s MAP price FOB Aurora, N.C., and White Springs, Fla., remained at $750/st FOB, with limited supply at both locations.
Eastern Canada:
MAP prices ranged broadly at C$1,060-$1,180/mt FOB in Eastern Canada, up from C$985-$1,060/mt FOB in late September. The last DAP business was reported at the C$1,120/mt level FOB Montreal, up C$140/mt from last report.
Saudi Arabia:
Recent Saudi Arabia phosphate pricing was heard in the $650-$685/mt FOB range, rising from $640-$660/mt FOB at last report.
China:
The restrictions on phosphate exports have essentially killed any pricing discussions for DAP and MAP out of China.
Sources said the move will build the national reserves of phosphates and could push down prices in the domestic market. One trader said if the producers do not have their energy cut back too much, the reserves will soon be large enough that the Chinese government might change its mind and allow exports.
However, reports this week indicated cold weather is arriving earlier than expected in China. The government has already stated its first goal is to ensure homes have adequate heating, even if it means diverting coal and natural gas from industries.
Exports of DAP for January-September 2021 were up 27 percent, according to Trade Data Monitor, to 5.3 million mt from 4.3 million mt during the same period in 2020. The main buyer for this year was India at 1.3 million mt.
Third-quarter exports of DAP were reported at 2.08 million mt, down slightly from the 2.1 million mt exported during the same period in 2020.September 2021 DAP exports were down 2.8 percent, to 550,000 mt from 566,000 mt in September 2020.
Exports of MAP for January-September 2021 were up 80 percent, to 3.4 million mt from 1.9 million mt during the same period last year. The main buyer this year was Brazil at 1.7 million mt.Third-quarter MAP exports were reported at 1.6 million mt, up from the 678,000 mt exported during the same period in 2020.September 2021 MAP exports were up 58 percent, to 312,000 mt from 197,000 mt in September 2020.
Sources said they expect the export numbers for the rest of the year to drop as producers follow the rules set by the Chinese government. One international trader noted, however, that some exports might be allowed under existing contracts if the domestic price goes down and product reserves are high.
India:
Sources said there is still strong demand for DAP in India. However, the cost of producing DAP in the country remains expensive and a possible money looser unless the government raises the maximum retail price, or adds even more in the budget for subsidies.
The other ray of hope for buyers is that prices out of China will drop and the Chinese government may decide there is enough DAP in the regional warehouses to cover the upcoming domestic market. Under those circumstances, the government might allow some of the producers to honor their contracts with Indian buyers.
Brazil:
The price for MAP moved up to $800/mt CFR as buyers and sellers reacted to the phosphate export ban from the Chinese government. Sources said this price may ease off, because Brazil usually does not have strong demand for MAP in the first quarter of the year.The MAP price range in Rondonopolis tightened to $920-$926/mt FOB ex-warehouse.
The barter rate changed again as crop prices have not kept pace with fertilizer costs. Sources in Sorriso put the rate at 110 bags of corn for 1 mt of MAP, up from the previous rate of 108 bags of corn for 1 mt MAP.