Central Florida:
Rapid firming in the NOLA phosphate market pressured Central Florida DAP and MAP trucks higher during the week. DAP postings firmed to $760/st FOB, up from the last-reported $685/st FOB, while MAP lifted to $765/st FOB from the prior $695/st FOB.
MAP trucks loading from North Florida also moved higher, with sources quoting values at $780/st FOB, above the previously-reported $750/st FOB level.
U.S. Gulf:
Phosphate barges loading from NOLA continued to firm for the week.
DAP pricing was quoted at a low of $720/st FOB, up from $673.50/st FOB last week, set by limited trading of domestically-produced material. Sources typically quoted the broader market at $730-$740/st FOB, with continued supply pressure driving expectations of additional increases in the short-term.
Sources described an ongoing MAP supply crunch lifting the price floor to around $745/st FOB up from the prior $720/st FOB. Willing buyers were reported up to $770/st FOB for the week, a step up from the week-ago $760/st FOB top.
Supply uncertainty was cited for the rising values, with reports of Russian export quotas further tightening worldwide phosphate availability.
The nearby DAP market was noted firming to $720-$740/st FOB from the week-ago $673.50-$730/st FOB. MAP barges loading from NOLA were quoted at $745-$770/st FOB, increasing from $720-$760/st FOB at last report.
U.S. Imports:
September DAP imports totaled 73,388 st, off 41.5 percent from the year-ago 125,413 st. July-September volumes totaled 491,589 st, however, a 205.1 percent increase on the year-ago 161,114 st.
Australia held the top import spot for July-September with 140,643 st, followed by 129,740 st from Saudi Arabia, a 114.0 percent increase on the year-ago 60,627 st. Tons loading from Jordan totaled 95,711 st, up 175.5 percent from 34,737 st during the same period last year.
September MAP/Other imports were noted at 19,781 st, rising 50.8 percent from 13,113 st in the prior year. July-September totals stood at 271,017 st, up 301.7 percent from the year-ago 67,472 st.
Nontraditional sources continued to dominate the MAP import space through the fertilizer year-to-date, despite registering no new sales in September. Tunisia led imports with 80,999 st, followed by 63,882 st from Saudi Arabia and 50,368 st from Jordan.
U.S. Exports:
DAP exports for the July-September window were off 45.2 percent, to 114,020 st from 208,154 st. Exports for September totaled 42,480 st, a 40.3 percent decline from 71,101 st in the prior year.
MAP/Other exported from the U.S. in September fell 12.7 percent, to 136,323 st from the prior-year 156,100 st. Exports totaled 564,379 st for July-September, falling 4.5 percent from the year-ago 590,984 st.
Nothing new was reported out of the Gulf phosphate export market for the week. Recent business included a $740/mt FOB trade for an 8,000 mt DAP cargo sold into the northern Latin American markets. Due to limited availability, the tons were slated for shipping in December.
Eastern Cornbelt:
DAP pricing firmed to $760-$770/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, up from the prior week’s $720-$760/st FOB range, with the Cincinnati market pegged firmly at the $765-$770/st FOB level at midweek, up from $745-$750/st FOB the week before. MAP was pegged at $795-$810/st FOB in the region.
Michigan warehouse pricing for limited tons was reported at $780/st FOB for DAP and $820/st FOB or higher for MAP.
Western Cornbelt:
DAP pricing was quoted at $740-$760/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low at St. Louis. The MAP market remained at $780-$815/st FOB in the region. In the Southern Plains, the Catoosa/Inola market was pegged $725-$745/st FOB for DAP and $790-$820/st FOB for MAP.
Northern Plains:
DAP was reported at $750-$770/st FOB St. Paul, with MAP quoted at the $800-$830/st FOB level at that location. The last delivered green MAP offers were pegged at the $880-$890/st level in central North Dakota.
Northeast:
Phosphate pricing FOB East Liverpool, Ohio, was confirmed at $785/st for DAP and $825/st for MAP, up $10-$35/st from mid-October. November MAP tons at Fairless Hills were quoted at the $835/st FOB level, up some $25/st from last report.
In the Southeast, Nutrien raised its MAP price FOB Aurora, N.C., and White Spring, Fla., to $780/st during the week, up $30/st from the previous posting.
Eastern Canada:
The MAP market edged up to C$1,100-$1,180/mt FOB in Eastern Canada, up C$40/mt at the low end of the range. The last DAP business remained at the C$1,120/mt level FOB Montreal.
Saudi Arabia:
Recent phosphate cargoes loading from Saudi Arabia were quoted in the $750-$770/mt FOB range, rising from $700-$730/mt FOB in the prior report.
India:
Reports of a DAP sale by SABIC into India at $810/mt CFR moved up the posted price. Other deals from China and Jordan put the range at $799-$810/mt CFR.
Tenders looking for more DAP and other phosphates by RCF, NFL, and GSFC came and went with no offers. Sources said the companies have extended the deadlines into next week. Given the current state of the phosphate market, international traders said the buyers will not be able to secure any large quantities on the spot market for some time.
China:
Reports are circulating that about 400,000 mt of DAP is sitting at producers’ warehouses and portside facilities. The producers are reportedly pressuring the government to allow them to export the material because no buyers have stepped up to purchase the product for local distribution.
The move to export comes on the heels of reports that Bangladesh is ready to call a 200,000 mt DAP tender. At the same time, Pakistan has begun expressing interest in buying more DAP as well.
The two countries have traditionally shown a better netback for producers than selling to India. Also, both seem willing to be flexible on delivery times, whereas Indian buyers are much more particular about timely deliveries.
Without any spot sales out of China, industry players looked to other markets to triangulate an estimated price. The recent purchases by India remain a consistent benchmark for deals not yet done, said one trader. After backing out freight and costs from the $799-$810/mt CFR price into India reported this week, sources said prices out of China could be $749-$760/mt FOB.
Traders are careful to point out that this price range is just one for discussion and does not reflect any actual business, however.
Brazil:
Prices at Paranagua moved up as the market still struggles to assess the impact of the Russian government restricting phosphate exports. Paranagua moved up to $840-$850/mt CFR.
The range in Rondonopolis widened as uncertainty also moved inland, with sources reporting the price at $1,000-$1,050/mt FOB ex-warehouse.The barter rate for 1 mt of MAP is now up to 120 bags of corn from the previous 115 bags.
January-October imports this year were reported at 4.2 million mt, up 2 percent from the 4.1 million mt imported during same period last year, according to Trade Data Monitor. The main suppliers so far this year have been Morocco at 1.7 million mt and Russia at 1.2 million mt. Imports from the U.S. fell to 182,000 mt from 463,000 mt in January-October 2020.
October imports were pegged at 575,000 mt, up 32 percent from October 2020 imports of 437,000 mt. Morocco was the primary supplier at 194,000 mt, which was down 18 percent from October 2020. Russian imports were up dramatically, to 130,000 mt from 65,000 mt in October 2020. Chinese imports were also up, to 104,000 mt from 27,000 mt in 2020.