Central Florida:
Posted prices on DAP trucks loading from Central Florida continued at $785/st FOB, steady from the prior week. Truck-loaded MAP was even with DAP at $785/st FOB, also flat compared with the previous week.
MAP trucks loading from North Florida were posted at $780/st FOB, steady from week-ago levels.
U.S. Gulf:
Sources reported sliding values for both the DAP and MAP barge markets in a week of slow trading.
DAP barges loading from NOLA started off the Jan. 14-20 trading period at a $710/st FOB high for tons loading through first-half February, and $705/st FOB for first-half March loading. Prices quickly shifted, however, with sources noting sales and offers softening to the $675-$685/st FOB range by Jan. 18-19.
NOLA MAP barges also took a dive, with $730/st FOB sales and offers reported on Jan. 19 sliding to the $690-$720/st FOB range by Jan. 19-20.
With the NOLA barge market already operating at a significant discount to many international destinations, sources were divided on possible explanations for the softening values. Some attributed the weakening to inclement weather sweeping the Eastern U.S., while others pointed to continued uncertainty about spring demand or a potential index play for the lower numbers.
The nearby DAP market was reported in a wide $675-$710/st FOB range for the week, falling from $710-$715/st FOB in the prior report. MAP barges moved to $690-$730/st FOB, down from $750-$755/st FOB at last report.
U.S. Exports:
The last reported U.S. Gulf spot export pricing continued to hold at $810/mt FOB, unmoved from one week earlier.
Eastern Cornbelt:
DAP pricing reportedly slipped again, to $755-$775/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, down another $10/st at the low end of the range. MAP was quoted at $785-$795/st FOB in the region.
Western Cornbelt:
The DAP market slipped to $750-$760/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, down another $10-$15/st from last report, with the low confirmed at St. Louis. MAP pricing softened as well, to $770-$785/st FOB in the region, with the low again reported at St. Louis.
The St. Paul market was pegged at $760/st FOB or higher for DAP and $790-$800/st FOB for MAP, while the Catoosa/Inola market reportedly dropped to $745-$760/st FOB for DAP and $775-$785/st FOB for MAP.
California:
MAP pricing remained at $910-$920/st rail-DEL or FOB California warehouses in mid-January.
Pacific Northwest:
MAP pricing in the Pacific Northwest was steady at $907/st FOB Aurora, with delivered tons pegged at $910/st in Washington, Oregon, and Nevada, and $900/st in Idaho, Utah, and Montana.
Western Canada:
New MAP offers in Western Canada were quoted at C$1,225-$1,245/mt FOB regional warehouses, with delivered tons pegged in a broad range at C$1,230-$1,280/mt in the region, depending on location.
Saudi Arabia:
Phosphates loading from Saudi Arabia were heard firming to the $880-$900/mt FOB range.
China:
Sources said discussions are underway to release a few more cargoes of DAP for export. The tons are said to be product previously secured in long-term contracts for timed shipments.
Reportedly, customs officials are allowing some product from these older deals to be shipped only after confirmation of sufficient DAP supplies in local warehouses and at the lower prices reflective of earlier in 2020 when the deals were closed. Despite the hopes of many in the global phosphate market, sources said no exports will be allowed for new deals cut with producers.
Reportedly, traders are talking with producers about arranging for May or June exports once the export ban is lifted. For now, said one trader, the talks are only about quantities. Prices will have to be discussed as the shipping dates close in.
Even as some product is being allowed out, the government is telling producers to cut back on production due to the upcoming Lunar New Year celebration and a growing concern over new COVID cases. Following the celebrations, however, the government wants the plants closed to limit air pollution during the Winter Olympics.
Exports of DAP in 2021 were reported at 6.25 million mt by Trade Data Monitor. This amount is a 9 percent increase from 2020 exports of 5.7 million mt. The largest single buyer in the year was India, which took 1.7 million mt. The Indian purchases represented about 28 percent of all DAP exports. Pakistan was in second, taking 868,000 mt, followed by Bangladesh with 630,000 mt.
December exports showed the impact of the export restrictions imposed by the central government. According to Trade Data Monitor, China exported only 35,000 mt of DAP in December 2021. This is dramatically down from the December 2020 exports of 491,000 mt. It is also significantly off from November 2021 exports of 129,000 mt, and the 790,000 mt from October 2021.
Exports of MAP were up about 49 percent in 2021, to 3.8 million mt from 2.5 million mt in 2020. The main buyer of Chinese MAP in 2021 was Brazil with 1.8 million mt. Sales to Brazil represented 48 percent of the total MAP sales last year. The cargoes to Brazil represented an increase from 163,000 mt sold in 2020.
The export ban hit exports hard. China exported 28,000 mt of MAP in December 2021, with Brazil taking about half. The December 2020 export number was reported at 148,000 mt. November 2021 exports were already down to 76,000 mt as a result of the ban. October 2021 showed 233,000 mt of MAP shipped out. The average monthly exports from China for the year were calculated at 315,000 mt.
Even with the reduction in November and December exports, the second half of 2021 showed offshore sales at 1.890 million mt against first-half sales of 1.895 million mt.
India:
Buyers have been busy. Sources reported that at least two DAP cargoes from OCP were booked at $920-$925/mt CFR. There are also rumors that at least one cargo from Mexico was booked.
The fact that Indian buyers remain willing to pay higher prices for DAP indicated to traders that the needs in the country have become serious enough to risk busting the budget for product and subsidies.
Brazil:
Farmers are still waiting for MAP prices to soften before stepping up to make major purchases. This weak demand is reflected in a lower price from the few deals that did take place.
Sources quoted the price at $855-$920/mt CFR at the ports. The spread showed a softening on the lower end of the price range, but also a slight increase in the upper end. The wider range indicated to sources the uncertainty that exists in the market.
While the port prices widened, the inland price in Rondonopolis narrowed to $990-$1,024/mt FOB ex-warehouse. Demand is down, as buyers take only what they need in hopes that prices will come off before they make commitments for major tonnage later in the year.