Central Florida:
No updated pricing was reported for the Central Florida DAP truck market, leaving values steady at the last-heard $785/st FOB level. The last MAP postings were also noted at $785/st FOB, unmoved from the prior report.
MAP loaded to trucks from North Florida remained posted at $780/st FOB on Feb. 24, sources confirmed.
U.S. Gulf:
Sources said Russia’s Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine upended the NOLA phosphate market as players braced for increased global supply uncertainty, as well as possible rising energy and feedstock prices.
Prior to Feb. 24, players noted NOLA DAP barges trading near the top of the week-ago range at $765-$770/st FOB. Bidding on Feb. 24 started in the $825-$850/st FOB range before trading culminated at the $865/st FOB level by the end of the day, sources said.
MAP followed a similar pattern, with sources describing pre-invasion trades at $770-$775/st FOB, building on the prior-week’s $770/st FOB ceiling. Sentiment was noted moving considerably higher on Feb. 24, however, with players expecting updated levels on par with DAP.
Offers were generally heard to have been pulled from the market shortly after the news out of Ukraine, leaving DAP and MAP barges in a state of price discovery. “All offers have been pulled by everyone I’ve talked to,” said one trader. Most offers from upriver terminals were also rescinded on Feb. 24.
In addition to the specter of reduced DAP and MAP volumes from Russia due to potential sanctions or other restrictions, market watchers pointed to expected price increases in ammonia and possibly sulfur as likely to drive phosphate production costs higher.
With the NOLA phosphate markets ending the week in disarray, players described DAP barge pricing at a wide $765-$865/st FOB for the week, increasing from the prior week’s $740-$770/st FOB. MAP also moved up, with players quoting the market at $770-$865/st FOB, lifting from $750-$770/st FOB one week earlier.
U.S. Exports:
Nothing new was heard in the U.S. Gulf phosphate export markets for the week, leaving values at their last-reported $850-$858/mt FOB level.
Eastern Cornbelt:
DAP prices in the Eastern Cornbelt firmed once again, jumping to $795-$820/st FOB from the prior week’s $775-$795/st FOB range, depending on location and time of the week. MAP was quoted at $800-$830/st FOB. As with urea, however, most suppliers pulled phosphate prices on Feb. 24 due to market uncertainty in the wake of the Ukraine conflict. Some sources speculated that prices may resurface at a $100/st premium to last week’s range.
Sources pegged the Cincinnati DAP market at $795-$810/st FOB, with the low reported early in the week. DAP pricing at Ottawa was also confirmed at the $810/st FOB level at midweek. The Cincinnati MAP market was quoted at a low of $800/st FOB before prices ratcheted up prior to being withdrawn on Feb. 24.
Western Cornbelt:
DAP pricing strengthened to $800-$820/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, up from the prior week’s $775-$785/st FOB range, with the low confirmed at midweek in St. Louis prior to reports of most suppliers withdrawing offers.
MAP was quoted at $800-$825/st FOB prior to Feb. 24, depending on location, with the St. Louis market pegged at $805-$810/st FOB.
Southern Plains:
DAP pricing at Catoosa/Inola reportedly jumped to $800-$825/st FOB, up from $780-$785/st FOB the previous week, before some suppliers pulled pricing in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. MAP was quoted at $800-$830/st FOB at that location.
South Central:
The DAP terminal market in late February jumped to $790-$820/st FOB in the South Central region, up $15-$30/st from the previous week and a full $60-$70/st above pricing levels in early February. The low end of the range was reported at Memphis, with the high at Shreveport and out of Ohio River terminals in Kentucky. The market FOB Little Rock, Ark., was pegged at the $810/st FOB level at midweek.
Southeast:
MAP remained at $780/st FOB Aurora, N.C., with the last DAP offers also at the $780/st FOB level at Aurora. DAP prices in Wilmington were pegged at $805/st FOB at midweek.
In the Northeast, sources reported new MAP offers FOB Fairless Hills, Pa., at $815/st for 1Q and $840/st for 2Q tons.
India:
Sources said DAP demand in India is there, but not desperately so. Prices remain at $915-$925/mt CFR.
The closing of a tender by NFL was postponed until Feb. 25 because only one company submitted an offer before the previous deadline of Feb. 19. The tender is for a long-term contract for DAP supplies throughout the year. Sources said NFL could not make awards without multiple offers.
Spot buyers are keeping an eye on the market and are generally willing to step up for a cargo if the price is right. At the same time, some DAP is coming out of China based on old contracts.
Indian buyers are watching the situation in Ukraine and Russia closely. While India has reduced its dependence on Russian DAP, it still takes product from that country. DAP imports in 2021 were reported at 93,000 mt, versus the 335,000 mt imported in 2020.
China:
End users and DAP producers are being more successful in their arguments with customs officials to allow more exports. Sources said the victories are still not enough to ease pressure on the global DAP market, however.
The central government is allowing exports to cover older contracts once local officials are sure they have enough DAP for their own needs. Sources pointed out that in some cases, however, the end user is taking only the minimum amount under the contract, leaving some leftover tons for a small spot sale.
Without any new public spot deals, the price remains at $890-$900/mt FOB from calculations based on the Indian delivered price.
Russia:
Exports of DAP in 2021 were reported at 1.3 million mt by Trade Data Monitor. This amount represents a 16 percent drop from 2020 exports of 1.5 million mt.
The main buyers in 2021 were Mexico with 129,000 mt, representing 10 percent of DAP exports, followed by Belgium with 107,000 mt and India with 93,000 mt.
Brazil:
Prices of MAP tightened to $880-$920/mt CFR in Brazil. Earlier in the week, sources said Moroccan and Russian offers were all being placed in the upper end of the price range. All trading stopped, however, after Russia invaded Ukraine. Domestic buyers wanted to wait and see how things shake out after the dust settles.
The upward pressure on pricing was also felt in Rondonopolis. Sources put the price there at $986-$1,050/mt FOB ex-warehouse.