Central Florida:
Central Florida market players described DAP truck pricing in the $910-$950/st FOB range during the week. Truck-loaded DAP and MAP were previously noted at $785/st FOB.
MAP trucks at North Florida were reported firming to $1,000 st FOB, a $70/st increase from the week-ago $930/st FOB.
U.S. Gulf:
NOLA phosphate barges shifted higher during the week, market players indicated. Nearby DAP values were noted holding at week-ago highs, while increased buyer attention allowed MAP barges to build on the last reported highs.
Players noted nearby DAP barges topping out at $980/st FOB, on par with the prior week’s top. Most reported the bottom of the range at $940-$950/st FOB, achieved at the outset of the March 11-17 trading week, firming from the week-ago $875/st FOB floor. Early-week trading rumored at $935/st FOB went unconfirmed on March 17.
MAP barges firmed to at least $975/st FOB, just behind the DAP top and rising from the prior week’s MAP’s high of $960/st FOB. Most noted the weekly MAP bottom at $940/st FOB, increasing from the week-ago $900/st FOB low.
DAP barges were reported in the $940-$980/st FOB range for the week, rising from $875-$975/st FOB at last report. MAP barges were also up, sources said, to $940-$975/st FOB from the prior week’s $900-$960/st FOB range.
U.S. Imports:
Imports of DAP were off 53.9 percent for January, to 85,827 st from the year-ago 186,117 st. July-January imports stood at 836,547 st, however, lifting 28.9 percent from the year-ago 648,916 st.
Australia narrowly topped the DAP import list with 251,973 st in the July-January period, up 65.7 percent from the year-ago 152,099 st. Saudi Arabia added 251,683 st, up 10.8 percent from its year-ago 227,059 st total. Cargoes from Egypt were reported at 121,293 st, ahead of Jordan’s 110,217 st and up 157.7 percent from the prior year’s 47,062 st total from Egypt.
MAP/Other imports for July-January were up 16.3 percent, to 576,779 st from 495,968 st. January imports were off 37.9 percent, however, to 36,320 st from 58,457 st in January 2021.
Saudi Arabia led the MAP/Other import market for July-January with 155,059 st, rising 34.5 percent from the prior year’s 115,292 st. Russia followed with 104,716 st, up 42.3 percent from the prior year’s 73,564 st. Jordan sent 94,460 st for the fertilizer year-to-date, increasing from zero tons one year earlier.
U.S. Exports:
January DAP exports moved up 19.1 percent year-over-year, to 52,014 st from 43,664 st. July-January tons fell 21.4 percent, however, to 382,056 st from 486,128 st.
MAP/Other exports for January firmed 1.7 percent, to 227,342 st from 223,499 st. July-January shipments were down 6.1 percent, however, to 1.22 million st from 1.30 million st in the prior year.
Nothing new was noted on the spot U.S. Gulf phosphate export market, leaving pricing at the last-reported $850-$858/mt FOB level. Rising values observed from a number of Latin American markets suggested a significant price increase in the next round of business.
Eastern Cornbelt:
The DAP market was quoted at $990-$1,020/st FOB regional terminals, up from the prior week’s broad range of $950-$1,015/st FOB, with both the high and low ends of the range confirmed in Cincinnati as the week progressed.
MAP pricing was pegged at $990-$1,025/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt. In the Great Lakes region, sources quoted new MAP offers as high as $1,090-$1,100/st FOB Toledo.
Western Cornbelt:
The DAP market climbed to $1,000-$1,020/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with MAP pegged at $1,005-$1,025/st FOB. Both the high and low ends of both ranges were reported at St. Louis during the week, with Iowa sources quoting MAP solidly at the $1,025/st FOB level as the week progressed.
Southern Plains:
DAP pricing was quoted in a broad range at $975-$1,025/st FOB in the Southern Plains, with the low confirmed early in the week at Houston. The Catoosa/Inola DAP market was generally reported at $1,005-$1,025/st FOB during the week, depending on supplier.
MAP was pegged at $995-$1,030/st FOB, with the low again reported at Houston as the week began, and the high confirmed at Catoosa/Inola.
South Central:
DAP prices were higher in the South Central region, from a low of $970-$980/st FOB Memphis to a high of $1,025/st FOB terminals in Arkansas. The TSP market was pegged at $850-$865/st FOB terminals in the South Central region, up $125-$130/st since late February.
Southeast:
Nutrien’s postings for DAP and MAP firmed to $1,000/st FOB Aurora, N.C., during the week, up dramatically from the prior week’s $930/st FOB level and the $780-$800/st FOB prices that prevailed in late February and early March. Sources also reported limited DAP offers at the $1,000/st level FOB Wilmington, up from $980/st the week before.
Saudi Arabia:
Saudi Arabia phosphate cargoes were heard lifting to a wide $950-$1,030/mt FOB range in recent trading.
China:
Sources said a vessel bound for India was loaded with DAP this week. The cargo is said to be tons secured under a contract signed before China imposed export restrictions on the product in October 2021. Additional cargoes are expected to be loaded, but only on a case-by-case basis, sources said.
The price of the latest cargo reportedly was based on the pre-restriction contract. The current price is pegged at $890-$900/mt FOB, based on a new deal with an Indian buyer earlier this month.
Rumors are circulating that China will extend the export restrictions through July. The limited export program was to have ended in April. However, earlier this month the government announced a special summer fill program that would require building reserves of an additional 1 million mt before more regular exports will be allowed.
India:
Buyers are slowly getting their old DAP contracts with Chinese producers honored. At the same time, they continue to search for additional sources. Into March, Morocco was producing more DAP than MAP for sales into India.
Dependence on Morocco may soon have to end. Sources said the announcement by OCP that it would step up production most likely meant it would be shifting more production to MAP and other products that do not require as much ammonia as DAP. The loss of Russian sources of ammonia has forced OCP to look at ways to extend its ammonia supplies, sources said.
January 2022 imports of DAP were reported at 213,000 mt by Trade Data Monitor, up 169 percent from January 2021 imports of 82,000 mt. The main DAP suppliers in January were Morocco with 59,000 mt, Saudi Arabia with 55,000 mt, Jordan with 50,000 mt, and China with 48,000 mt.
Morocco:
Phosphate giant OCP announced it would increase output to 11.9 million mt this year from the existing 10.8 million mt. The notice came as ammonia supplies for OCP were in danger because of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Sources said the company would most likely be shifting away from DAP, which requires about 250 kg for each ton, and moving instead to MAP, which only requires 110 kg for a ton. A bigger shift is also expected to TSP and NP, which do not require ammonia in the production process.
The shift back to MAP from DAP could make major MAP buyers such as Brazil feel better about market availability.
Russia:
Exports of DAP in January 2022 were reported at 123,000 mt by Trade Data Monitor. The amount is up slightly from the 121,000 mt exported in January 2021.The main buyers were Thailand with 41,000 mt, Vietnam with 22,000 mt, and Australia with 15,000 mt.
Russian January 2022 MAP exports were reported at 321,000 mt, representing a massive jump from the 48,000 mt exported in January 2021. The main buyer was Brazil with 152,000 mt. About 62,000 mt were reportedly sent to Estonia, which sources said would most likely be re-exported. Australia and the U.S. followed with 48,000 mt and 33,000 mt, respectively.
Brazil:
Sources said new pricing ideas for MAP from OCP/Morocco have taken hold. The landed price is now pegged at $1,200-$1,260/mt CFR.
Rondonopolis is quoted at $1,350-$1,500/mt FOB ex-warehouse. The increase in pricing is tied to shortness of product and the higher transportation costs for getting the material from the ports to the regional distributors.