Central Florida:
DAP trucks loading from Central Florida continued to be posted at $945/st FOB, steady from one week earlier. Truck-loaded MAP was even with DAP at $945/st FOB, also flat compared with the previous week.
U.S. Gulf:
Sources reported a slow market heading into the Easter weekend, with DAP barge pricing remaining steady and MAP weakening slightly.
Most players noted the bulk of the week’s DAP barge pricing landing in the upper half of the prior week’s $940-$970/st FOB range, although limited early-week trading was reported near the week-ago $940/st FOB floor.
Traders generally pegged the MAP high unmoved from the previous week’s $990/st FOB, while business reported in the $950-$960/st FOB range stretched the market $20/st below the previous $970/st FOB floor. Players were divided on whether the lower pricing represented declining sentiment or was simply due to the slow holiday week.
Offer levels from domestic phosphate producers were quoted steady at the week-ago $970/st FOB level for both DAP and MAP.
The NOLA barge DAP market was reported rolling over from week-ago levels in the $940-$970/st FOB range. MAP barges loading from NOLA softened to the $950-$990/st FOB range, down from $970-$990/st FOB the week before.
U.S. Exports:
DAP exports for February fell 43.1 percent, to 34,313 st from 60,300 st. July-February exports were 23.8 percent lower, to 416,369 st from 546,427 st in the prior year.
February MAP/Other exports were noted at 201,089 st, rising 9.9 percent from the year-ago 182,954 st. July-February exports were counted at 1.42 million st, however, down 4.1 percent from the year-ago 1.48 million st.
Players reported no new spot business in the Gulf export phosphate markets, leaving the market at the last reported $1,240/mt FOB level for both DAP and MAP.
Eastern Cornbelt:
DAP pricing remained at $1,000-$1,030/st FOB regional terminals, with the Cincinnati market pegged at $1,020-$1,025/st FOB. MAP was reported in a broad $995-$1,040/st FOB range in mid-April, with the Cincinnati market quoted at $995-$1,010/st FOB.
Western Cornbelt:
The DAP market was quoted at $990-$1,025/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the St. Louis market pegged in the $990-$1,010/st FOB range. MAP pricing moved to a broad $1,025-$1,060/st FOB range, with the low at St. Louis and the high in Iowa on a spot basis.
California:
MAP remained at $1,070/st FOB or DEL in California. Some sources reported drastic cutbacks in 1Q application volumes this year due to retail price resistance, the worsening drought, and low nut prices.
Pacific Northwest:
The MAP market in the Pacific Northwest was unchanged at $1,060/st FOB Aurora, Ore., $1,060/st DEL in Idaho, Utah, and Montana, and $1,050/st DEL in Washington, Oregon, and Nevada.
Western Canada:
Phosphate prices were moving higher in Western Canada. New MAP offers were quoted in a broad C$1,470-$1,570/mt FOB range in mid-April, up another C$70/mt from the last confirmed business. No current delivered MAP prices were confirmed during the week.
Saudi Arabia:
Saudi Arabia phosphate pricing was heard in the $1,025-$1,200/mt FOB range, sources said, a shift from $1,035-$1,190/mt FOB in the prior report.
China:
The DAP exports taking place are mostly from old contracts signed before the restrictions took effect in October 2021.Some smaller quantities are being allowed out, but only after customs officials are satisfied that the existing reserves will be able to handle any estimated demand.
The restrictions against exports were slated to end in May. Sources said they expect to continue to see limitations on exports through July, however.
The lack of any tons tied to new deals makes price determination difficult. While some traders will talk about where they think prices should be, no one can point to an actual piece of business to confirm or refute these positions.
India:
Based on an early April DAP sale from Saudi Arabia to Pakistan at $1,025/mt CFR, sources now said the equivalent price in India would be about $1,000/mt CFR. This would move the price up from the last spot deal in the $920s/mt CFR. The lack of any new deals into India, however, makes verifying this level difficult.
Phosphate producers may be facing a shortage of phos acid after OCP reportedly decided it would not ship any acid until the second quarter price is settled. The Moroccan company reportedly is looking for $2,000-$2,200/mt CFR for its new price.
Indonesia:
Gresik will close a tender on April 18 for 80,000 mt of either DAP (18-46-0) or DAP lite (16-44-0). The company is looking for a series of deliveries from May through August.
The small lots expected for each shipment might make it possible for offers to come backed by Chinese product. Sources said as long as the tonnage is small – 10,000 mt or so – the Chinese customs officials may not take much notice of the deal.
Brazil:
Port MAP prices have held even at $1,300-$1,350/mt CFR. Sources said lack of offers has led to a malaise in pricing. The already high prices are keeping buyers away from making new offers, even as industry watchers express concern about the limited amount of MAP in upcoming vessel line-ups.
A move in Rondonopolis pricing to $1,460-$1,520/mt FOB ex-warehouse seems to be more of a mild shift than a major correction in regional pricing. Concerns about how many tons will be imported due to sanctions against Russia and China’s export restrictions continue to haunt buyers. In addition, sources said there are growing concerns about logistics issues moving the product from the ports to the regional distribution centers, including higher fuel costs for trucks.
Imports of MAP for the first quarter of this year were reported at 567,000 mt, down about 40 percent from the 942,000 mt imported during the same period last year. Trade Data Monitor reported that the main supplier for the first three months of the year was Russia with 341,000 mt.
March 2022 imports fell to 246,000 mt from the 302,000 mt imported in March 2021. Russian MAP accounted for 65.5 percent of the March imports at 168,000 mt, with Moroccan product representing 15 percent of imports at 39,000 mt.
The March imports are expected to be the tail end of material loaded and shipped before sanctions were imposed on Russia.