Central Florida:
No changes in posted prices were announced for the Central Florida truck-loaded phosphate markets. Pricing was posted at $945/st FOB for both DAP and MAP trucks. North Florida MAP trucks were most recently reported at $950/st FOB.
U.S. Gulf:
Players reported falling prices for NOLA DAP and MAP barges during the week.
Nearby DAP barges were noted moving down from the prior-week $860/st FOB floor to around $850/st FOB early in the period, while an “explosion” of $820-$830/st FOB offers on May 11-12 found few if any buyers. Tons loading in the third quarter were reported trading in the $820-$830/st FOB range early in the week.
NOLA MAP barges also pressed lower. Players noted early-week trading at an $895/st FOB high, edging below the week-ago $900/st FOB top, while offers reported down to $850/st FOB on May 11 were down $20/st from the week-ago $870/st FOB low.
Overcoming early-week conditions described by some as “incredibly illiquid,” low USDA corn acreage estimates and the ongoing slow start to spring planting were reportedly weighing on market sentiment.
The NOLA DAP barge price was reported at $820-$860/st FOB for the week, softening from $860-$870/st FOB in the prior report. Players reported MAP barges loading from NOLA at $850-$895/st FOB, down from the week-ago $870-$900/st FOB.
U.S. Imports:
DAP imports dropped 80.4% in March, to 52,240 st compared to 266,407 st in March 2021. July-March imports were off 6.3%, to 955,899 st from 1.02 million st reported one year earlier.
Saudi Arabia led July-March importers with 353,470 st, followed by Australia at 251,973 st, and Egypt at 121,293 st.
July-March MAP/Other imports softened 12.4% year-over-year, to 704,676 st from 804,582 st. March imports were off 70.9%, to 69,339 st from the year-ago 238,179 st. Imports from Saudi Arabia were recorded at 197,498 st in July-March. Russia followed with 108,461 st. MAP/Other imports from Jordan totaled 94,460 st.
U.S. Exports:
March DAP exports were noted at 98,663 st, a 161.0% increase on the year-ago 37,795 st. Exports were reported falling to 515,032 st in July-March, however, down 11.8% from the year-ago 584,222 st.
MAP/Other exports for March stood at 309,073 st, up 49.2% from the year-ago 207,213 st. July-March exports were quoted at 1.73 million st, up 2.4% from the prior-year 1.69 million st.
No new spot business was reported on the Gulf export DAP and MAP markets, leaving last-reported at $1,240/mt FOB for both products.
Eastern Cornbelt:
DAP pricing slipped to $940-$960/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, down another $10-$15/st from last report. MAP was pegged in the $950-$970/st FOB range in the region, reflecting a $10/st decline from the prior week, with the low confirmed at Ottawa. Cincinnati pricing was reported at $955-$960/st FOB for both DAP and MAP during the week.
Western Cornbelt:
Softer NOLA barge values once again pushed phosphate prices lower in the Western Cornbelt. DAP pricing was reported at $930-$955/st FOB in the region, down another $15-$20/st, with the St. Louis market pegged at $930-$945/st FOB during the week.
MAP was quoted at $930-$960/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low again confirmed at St. Louis, down from last week’s $955-$975/st range.
Northern Plains:
DAP pricing reportedly slipped to $940-$960/st FOB St. Paul, with MAP reported at $945-$965/st FOB at that location. Delivered green MAP in western North Dakota was pegged at the $1,025/st level in early May, down $25/st from last report.
Great Lakes:
DAP pricing was quoted at $985/st FOB Michigan terminals, down significantly from the 1,030-$1,045/st FOB levels reported in early April. The MAP market had reportedly fallen to $990-$1,000/st FOB in the region, down from $1,025-$1,050/st FOB in April.
Northeast:
DAP and MAP prices were lower in the Northeast. DAP was reported at $980/st FOB East Liverpool, Ohio, down from $1,015/st FOB in mid-April. The MAP market was pegged at $990-$1,000/st FOB in the region, down from $1,020/st FOB in April, with the low confirmed at East Liverpool.
Eastern Canada:
MAP pricing in Eastern Canada was quoted at C$1,475-$1,495/mt FOB, down C$55/mt from last report at the high end of the range. The DAP market at Montreal was also down C$55/mt, to C$1,495/mt FOB in early May.
China:
Reports of a DAP deal between producer YUC and Indian buyer CIL at $1,030/mt CFR had the market in a tizzy. The price was higher than what was previously reported in India and lower than the last spot deal out of China. The estimated netback to China was $990-$1,000/mt FOB.
In the end, sources said CIL received orders from the Department of Fertilizer to scrap the deal because the price was too high for the maximum retail price and subsidy plan. Even with the reported cancelation of the deal, sources said the deal offered a valuable glimpse at where prices might be for reasonably sized cargoes.
For several weeks DAP has been shipped out of China to India under contracts that were in place before the export restrictions took effect in October 2021. The official line was that producers persuaded the government it was necessary for them to service their contracts or lose out on future sales. At the same time, the Indians insisted the price needed to reflect the price at the time the export restrictions started.
Sources said the normal contract would have allowed for price variations for each cargo based on market conditions. Under this way of thinking, the Chinese producers regularly pushed for higher prices. At the same time, the Indians noted that the producers were only able to sell to India, and used that leverage to push back on prices.
The latest YUC-CIL deal is now being used by the industry as a basis for new talks. Expectations are that the landed price will be lower, but not under $1,000/mt CFR.
India:
A deal between YUC and CIL at $1,030/mt CFR was reportedly scrapped under orders from the Department of Fertilizer.
Sources said the DoF told CIL the price was too high for the maximum retail price and subsidy program. Reportedly, the government office instructed talks to get the price down, closer to the sub-$1,000/mt levels in the last quarter of 2021.
Brazil:
Pre-sanctioned Russian MAP continues to arrive in Brazil. At the same time, cargoes from China are coming in. These two suppliers are offering prices at the lower end of the current $1,150-$1,300/mt CFR. The upper end of the range represents purchases of Moroccan MAP, which is also arriving in the ports.
Buyers are now looking at some possible delays in future Chinese shipments. Sources said reports are reaching Brazilian ears that COVID restrictions and customs clearance procedures could delay the loading of vessels an additional 90-120 days. This much of a delay could miss the application season.
Meanwhile, Russian material is expected to dry up because of the sanctions related to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. That leaves Morocco as a steady supplier. It is also a high-priced supplier.
The price in Rondonopolis has dipped slightly, to $1,300-$1,400/mt FOB ex-warehouse. Buyers are expected to take advantage of the downward shift before product availability tightens with the removal of Russian product from the supply chain.
Imports of MAP for the first four months were reported at 954,000 mt, down about 15% from the 1.1 million mt imported during the same period, according to Trade Data Monitor. Russian product dominated the January-April imports with 495,000 mt, accounting for 52% of MAP imports during that period.
April 2022 MAP imports were reported at 387,000 mt, more than double the 182,000 mt imported in April 2021. The main suppliers were Russia with 154,000 mt, accounting for 40% of MAP imports, and Morocco with 98,000 mt, covering 25% of the import market.