Central Florida:
DAP trucks were posted at $800/st FOB in the Central Florida market, steady from the prior week. Truck-loaded MAP continued to run at a premium to DAP at $830/st FOB, also unchanged from one week earlier.
MAP loaded to trucks from North Florida was posted at $820/st FOB, sources said, unmoved from the prior week.
U.S. Gulf:
The NOLA DAP and MAP barge markets continued to search for direction during the week, with sources noting declining DAP values contrasted against a rise in MAP pricing.
DAP barges were reported bottoming at $735/st FOB at the start of the trading week, declining from the prior $738/st FOB floor. Players reported multiple trades in the $740-$745/st FOB range, indicating the bulk of the market focused at that level. Domestically produced DAP was offered at $770/st FOB, unchanged from the week before.
Early-week pricing was heard even with last week’s $760/st FOB low for MAP barges, while players reported most volume falling in the $765-$779/st FOB range, building on the market’s prior $765/st FOB top. Players reported offers for domestically produced MAP at $800/st FOB, steady from one week earlier.
NOLA DAP barges were quoted trading in the $735-$745/st FOB range, falling from $738-$760/st FOB at last report. MAP pricing was reported at $760-$779/st FOB, however, above the week-ago $760-$765/st FOB.
U.S. Exports:
Nothing new was heard transacting during the week on the Gulf export market. The last reported spot business included pricing in the $910-$925/mt FOB range
Eastern Cornbelt:
DAP pricing slipped to $790-$810/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, down another $10/st from last report, with MAP pegged in the $815-$835/st FOB range, down from the prior week’s $840-$850/st FOB range. The Cincinnati market was reported at $800-$810/st FOB for DAP and $815-$830/st FOB for MAP.
Western Cornbelt:
DAP dropped to $790-$810/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low confirmed at St. Louis and the high in Iowa. MAP pricing was quoted at $810-$830/st FOB in the region, with the St. Louis market pegged at $815-$825/st FOB.
Northern Plains:
DAP pricing reportedly fell to $795-$810/st FOB St. Paul in late August, with MAP reported at $835-$850/st FOB at that location. Delivered green MAP in western North Dakota remained at the $890/st level for recent fill offers.
Northeast:
Phosphate prices were down, with the MAP market quoted at $840/st FOB East Liverpool and $855/st FOB Fairless Hills. DAP was pegged at $820/st FOB East Liverpool, down $25/st from last report.
Eastern Canada:
MAP pricing in Eastern Canada remained at C$1,325-$1,335/mt FOB in late August. The DAP market at Montreal was unchanged at the C$1,315/mt FOB level.
India:
Sources reported another deal that further dropped the landed price of DAP into India. Reportedly, a sale was made at $870/mt CFR for 40,000 mt.
The pressure for lower prices is expected to continue. Sources said so far, the game plan laid out by India to be aggressive on pricing during a slow period in the global market appears to be working. Producers, on the other hand, are now saying they will be digging in their heels and demanding prices closer to $880/mt CFR.
Most of the deals appear to be made directly between the buyers and producers, leaving international traders in the wings. Even though they are not in the game, traders said there is still more room for the price to drop. Once that level is achieved, they figure the price will stabilize.
China:
The netback to China from the latest DAP deal into India is put at $840-$850/mt FOB.
Availability of DAP for export remains limited. Producers still need to prove to customs officials that any sale to another country will not hurt domestic supplies or raise prices in the local market. In addition to the restrictions, sources reported some DAP output is being affected by plants cutting back or closing due to excessive heat.
January-July 2022 exports of DAP were reported at 1.6 million mt by Trade Data Monitor, down 61% from the 4.2 million mt exported during the same period in 2021.The main customers so far this year were India at 554,000 mt, Thailand at 198,000 mt, and Bangladesh at 162,000 mt.
July exports of DAP were reported at 336,000 mt, down about two-thirds from the 984,000 mt exported in July 2021.
January-July 2022 exports of MAP were reported at 1 million mt by Trade Data Monitor, down 60% from the 2.6 million mt exported during the same period in 2021.Brazil topped the list of buyers, taking 450,000 mt. Argentina bought 196,000 mt, and rounding off the top three buyers was Australia with 146,000 mt.
July 2022 exports were reported at 161,000 mt, down from 677,000 mt in July 2021.
Pakistan:
An effort by the Trading Corp. of Pakistan to control DAP imports was widely condemned by the private sector.
Local media reported that the Fertilizer Manufacturers of Pakistan Advisory Council (FMPAC) said regulating the unregulated phosphate sector in Pakistan could damage the supply of DAP to the market. In a letter to the Ministry of Commerce, FMPAC said not only could the move limit the amount of DAP available, but it could also raise the price to already cash strapped farmers.
In the past, TCP was the sole importer of urea for Pakistan. Even as the urea market opened to allow some imports by the private sector, TCP was still the go-to organization for importing urea. It was recently tasked with handling a government-to-government deal with Saudi Arabia for much-needed urea. International traders said on the heels of that deal, some in TCP believed they should make a move on DAP imports.
While FMPAC is concerned with availability and price, international traders were concerned about corruption. About a dozen years ago a former chairman and a former board member of TCP were arrested on corruption charges involving wheat purchases for the country. Even two years ago, Transparency International raised concerns about the wheat procurement procedures.
Sources said the current reserves of DAP are at 900,000 mt, more than enough for the season. FMPAC also told the government that the private sector has provided adequate supplies of DAP for the past 10 years.
Pakistan imports an average of 1.4 million mt of DAP, based on import date for 2017-2021 from Trade Data Monitor. China has been supplier the bulk of the phosphate fertilizer in each of those years, with Morocco and Australia coming in a distant second and third.
| Partner Country | Pakistan DAP Imports 2017-2021 | |||||
| 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | Total | |
| World | 1,729,809 | 1,928,895 | 1,249,146 | 1,064,940 | 1,277,021 | 7,249,811 |
| China | 1,210,824 | 1,494,640 | 819,320 | 664,180 | 991,866 | 5,180,830 |
| Morocco | 247,695 | 270,896 | 210,087 | 108,624 | 837,302 | |
| Australia | 244,838 | 183,295 | 158,930 | 27,660 | 55,371 | 670,094 |
| Saudi Arabia | 245,564 | 105,721 | 121,160 | 472,445 | ||
| Other | 28,583 | 3,265 | 57,292 | 89,140 |
Brazil:
Supplies of MAP remain strong even as demand slips. The result has been a further drop in prices to $800-$860/mt CFR. Sources said higher production costs and reduced output could mean Brazil has seen the floor on pricing.
Inland holders of MAP are looking to clear out their warehouses in preparation for the arrival of grains for export and for replacement fertilizer shipments. This desire is allowing aggressive buyers to push down the price. Sources peg the current Rondonopolis price at $920-$985/mt FOB ex-warehouse.