Central Florida:
Central Florida DAP truck pricing remained at the prior week’s $770/st FOB level, sources said, although posted prices were reportedly under reassessment in the aftermath of Hurricane Ian on Sept. 29. Truck-loaded MAP continued at $790/st FOB, also steady from one week earlier.
Pricing for MAP trucks loading from northern Florida was unchanged at $820/st FOB.
US Gulf:
Hurricane Ian’s Sept. 28 landfall north of Fort Myers, Fla., sent the NOLA barge phosphate markets into a holding pattern, sources said, with players describing pulled bids and offers while the market waits to hear of any damage to production facilities in Florida.
All Mosaic Florida locations moved to Hurricane Condition 4 on Sept. 27, with company assets secured in advance of a possible shutdown prior to the storm’s arrival. Ian came ashore as a Category 4 hurricane on Sept. 28. The Port of Tampa moved to Port Condition Zulu on Sept. 27, effectively halting operations at the site.
Pricing was largely flat on DAP barges ahead of Ian’s arrival. Low offers were heard at a $730/st FOB floor early in the week, above the prior $725/st FOB bottom, while domestically-produced tons traded even with the week-ago $755/st FOB top. Domestic producers were noted reassessing posted prices on Sept. 29.
NOLA MAP barges were quoted at a $755/st FOB low, lifting from the week-ago $745/st FOB floor, while sales of domestically produced MAP slated for full-October loading were reported at $765/st FOB, shy of the prior $780/st FOB top.
Sources noted DAP barges in a wide $730-$755/st FOB range through the week, lifting from $725-$755/st FOB in the prior report. NOLA MAP was pegged at $755-$765/st FOB, a change from $745-$780/st FOB reported previously.
US Exports:
Sources reported a quiet Gulf export market, with recent DAP and MAP transactions unchanged from the last-heard $750-$760/mt FOB level.
Eastern Cornbelt:
DAP prices remained at $805-$815/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with MAP quoted at $815-$825/st FOB in the region. Cincinnati pricing was steady at $805-$810/st FOB for DAP and $815-$825/st FOB for MAP.
In the wake of Hurricane Ian, Mosaic said it would be reassessing the availability and posted prices for the NOLA, Central Florida, and inland terminal phosphate markets in the coming days.
Western Cornbelt:
DAP pricing slipped to $790-$810/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with MAP reported in the $805-$820/st FOB range, depending on location. The St. Louis market was pegged at $790-$800/st for DAP and $805-$815/st FOB for MAP.
California:
MAP was unchanged at $900/st FOB or DEL in California in late September.
Pacific Northwest:
The MAP market was steady at $870-$890/st FOB or DEL in the Pacific Northwest, depending on location.
Western Canada:
MAP was pegged in a wide range at C$1,235-$1,305/mt FOB in Western Canada, up from the previous C$1,220-$1,280/mt range. Delivered tons were quoted at C$1,250-$1,315/mt in the region in late September.
China:
Sources reported the price of DAP deals directly between producers and Indian buyers at $720-$725/mt FOB. However, a recent deal reportedly of Russian DAP to India at $720/mt CFR has shifted pricing expectations to $690-$700/mt FOB.
Because traders are shut out of DAP deals, sources said calculating netbacks from Indian deals remains the most reliable method to estimate the Chinese price. Sources now put the market at $690-$725/mt FOB for DAP.
Port warehouse inventories of DAP for September are reported at 308,400 mt, representing a 4% advantage over the average tonnage. International traders said the tonnage most likely represents pending shipments for India to cover the Rabi season.
Inventories of MAP are also up. The September tonnage is reported at 163,000 mt, 10% above average. Sources reported at least four cargoes are already booked for Australia. Another option is that some of the tonnage was initially slated for Brazil, but later canceled.
India:
Sources reported a DAP sale into India at $720/mt CFR. At that price, sources speculated that the product most likely came from Russia. The deal, said one trader, is more evidence that Indian buyers are looking for product wherever they can.
Reportedly, Indian buyers spent the week bidding at $700-$720/mt CFR, but seemed to be willing to accept $740-$750/mt CFR. The latest deal could lead to a more aggressive push for lower prices from Chinese suppliers, who are digging in their heels to stop further price drops.
Some Indian companies have become so emboldened by the softer prices of DAP that they are now reportedly talking with Chinese producers to lower the price on tons contracted months ago, from $820/mt CFR to $750/mt CFR.
Sources said part of the push for lower prices is coming from rumors that the Indian government is planning to cut the amount paid for DAP subsidies. Reportedly, some buyers are now even looking at $680-$700/mt CFR.
Pakistan:
Buyers are reportedly making inquiries for DAP. Saudi Arabian sellers are listening, but seem to be focusing on formula-based deals rather than locking in prices at current levels.
Brazil:
The price of MAP in Brazil moved down to $690-$700/mt CFR. The decline in pricing is not expected to stop any time soon. Sources said buyers were aggressive with bids as low as $650/mt CFR, but with no success yet.
The Rondonopolis MAP market tightened, with the lower end of the range dropping for a new price of $820-$855/mt FOB ex-warehouse. Sources said demand for MAP has slackened as farmers pay attention to their planting plans. Future demand may come as weather patterns and markets become clearer.