Central Florida:
Central Florida DAP truck postings were unchanged at $770/st FOB for the week. Truck-loaded MAP values were flat at $790/st FOB, also steady from the previous week. MAP trucks loading from North Florida continued to be heard at $820/st FOB.
US Gulf:
Despite removing an estimated 200,000-250,000 mt of phosphate from third- and fourth-quarter production slates, Hurricane Ian’s Sept. 28 landfall along the west coast of Florida was reported to minimally impact the NOLA barge market during the week. Repairs to damaged production facilities in the state were expected to require 1-2 weeks to complete.
Players noted offers unchanged from the week-ago low at $730/st FOB on Sept. 30, although values firmed to a $740/st FOB floor by Oct. 5. A rumored $715/st FOB transaction on Oct. 6 was believed by most sources to be a paper trade.
The top of the NOLA DAP range was pegged at $750/st FOB for domestically-produced material, below the week-ago $755/st FOB top. Posted offers from domestic producers were adjusted to $760/st FOB, falling from the prior $765/st FOB offer.
Most reported the weekly MAP low at $747/st FOB, a decline from the week-ago $755/st FOB floor. Russian tons reported trading on Oct. 3-5 at $730/st FOB were expected to load in November. Sources generally called the top of the market around $765/st FOB. Post-hurricane domestic producer offers softened to $775/st FOB from the last-reported $785/st FOB level.
The nearby NOLA DAP barge market was reported in a wide $730-$750/st FOB range for the week, falling from $730-$755/st FOB the week before. MAP barges were heard at $747-$765/st FOB for October, below the $755-$765/st FOB range posted previously.
US Exports:
Sources described a quiet export market, with sellers reportedly “working through the availability impacts of Hurricane Ian” during the week. Recent reported trades included DAP and MAP cargoes priced in the $750-$760/mt FOB range.
Eastern Cornbelt:
DAP prices slipped to $800-$810/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, down $5/st from the prior week. MAP was quoted at $815-$835/st FOB in early October, up slightly at the high end of the range due to low water issues on the river system that have impacted barge movement. The Cincinnati market was pegged at $800-$810/st FOB for DAP and $815-$830/st FOB for MAP.
Michigan sources reported MAP pricing at the $854/st FOB level on a spot basis.
Western Cornbelt:
DAP pricing was pegged at $790-$810/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with MAP reported in the $805-$820/st FOB range, depending on location. The St. Louis market was pegged at $790-$800/st for DAP and $805-$815/st FOB for MAP.
Northern Plains:
DAP pricing was unchanged at $800-$810/st FOB St. Paul, with MAP reported at the $820/st FOB level at that location. Delivered green MAP in western North Dakota remained at the $890/st level for the last fill offers.
Northeast:
MAP pricing in the Northeast was pegged at $850/st FOB East Liverpool, Ohio, and $865/st FOB Fairless Hills. DAP was reported at $825/st FOB East Liverpool in early October.
Eastern Canada:
MAP pricing in Eastern Canada slipped to C$1,250-$1,280/mt FOB in early October. The DAP market at Montreal was reported at the C$1,240/mt FOB level.
China:
No movement was reported on pricing or product. Sources said talks between DAP producers and offshore buyers were limited because of the week-long Chinese National Day celebrations.
India:
Sources pegged the market at $720-$750/mt CFR, with buyers now bidding at $680-$690/mt CFR. Some industry watchers questioned if the buyers will be successful in lowering the price that much.
The recent purchases of phos acid in the $1,100-$1,200/mt CFR range, combined with the push for a lower price with OCP, has some industry watchers speculating that India may soon be stepping up its DAP production. The lower input costs could make domestic production less expensive than the imports, said one trader.
India has moved aggressively to import DAP this year because phos acid prices were high at $1,700/mt CFR, with OCP/Morocco eyeing $2,000/mt CFR. The cost of the acid would have made domestic production costs prohibitive and outside the subsidy boundaries.
Aggressive negotiations when prices were softening brought in a substantial amount of DAP, thereby negating the need for more acid. Now, with acid producers willing to soften their pricing ideas or lose out completely, DAP production in India may once again become financially viable.
Brazil:
An oversupply of MAP in Brazil has forced some trading houses to ship cargoes to the US and Europe. Sources said in most of these cases, the traders were hit with substantial losses. The issue was the rising costs of storing the MAP for an undetermined time, along with competition from others holding large quantities.
The softer price at the ports was reported at $670-$680/mt CFR. The lack of buying comes from farmers calculating the fertilizer/grain price ratio. So far, a number of farmers have reportedly said they are ready to skip a season of phosphate purchases. Experts said this is possible without causing any major loss in crop output.
Rondonopolis is posted at $795-$830/mt FOB ex-warehouse. The same lack of interest at the ports is affecting sellers inland.
Imports of MAP for January-September 2022 were reported at 3.4 million mt by Trade Data Monitor, down slightly from the 3.6 million mt imported during the same period in 2021. Russia supplied just under half of the tonnage at 1.5 million mt. Morocco followed with 882,000 mt, and Saudi Arabia with 556,000 mt.
September 2022 imports were divided among five suppliers. Total imports for September were reported at 241,000 mt, a drop of 61% from the 622,000 mt imported during September 2021.
| Source Country | September imports | % Of Import Market |
| Saudi Arabia | 67,225 | 27.86 |
| Russia | 59,429 | 24.63 |
| Morocco | 57,899 | 24.00 |
| China | 29,617 | 12.28 |
| US | 24,000 | 9.95 |
Third-quarter 2022 imports were reported at 1.2 million mt, down about 24% from the 1.6 million mt imported during the July-September 2021 period.