Central Florida:
Sellers were reportedly sold out of DAP and MAP trucks loading from Central Florida through first-half December. Posted prices on DAP trucks continued at $770/st FOB, while MAP trucks were posted at $790/st FOB, unmoved from the prior report.
In the North Florida market, MAP loaded to trucks was posted at $820/st FOB, also unchanged from one week earlier.
US Gulf:
Sources described a quiet week for the NOLA phosphate markets, noting limited movement in the 30-day trading window.
DAP barges were reportedly trading at a low of $675/st FOB, below last week’s floor of $685/st FOB, while the high end of the range slipped to $680/st FOB from last week’s $705/st FOB level.
Market players reported minimal nearby trading activity in the MAP market. Business was reported at $650/st FOB for December-loaded barges, even with the week-ago $650/st FOB low for November loadings, while price ideas at the top of the range tracked around the $665/st FOB mark, down from $700/st FOB in the prior report.
Domestic producers were reportedly sold out of barges loading through the first half of December, while offers on barges slated for full December loading were under evaluation.
Historic low water levels on the lower Mississippi River continued to limit cargo capacity, resulting in an increased focus on tons either stationed at upriver locations or currently moving on a tow. The limited freight capacity contributed to thinning warehouse supply, however, supporting prices at levels above currently available NOLA netbacks.
The nearby NOLA DAP barge market was reported at $675-$680/st FOB for the week, below last week’s $685-$705/st FOB range. Sources pegged NOLA MAP pricing at $650-$665/st FOB, also down from the $650-$700/st FOB level reported one week earlier.
US Exports:
Mosaic reported a 25,000 mt DAP cargo selling out of the Gulf during the week. The tons, destined for a single location in Latin America, were priced at $692/mt FOB, with loading slated for early December.
The company also confirmed a 50,000 mt DAP vessel shipping from either Florida or NOLA bound for Mosaic’s own distribution business in India. The vessel was expected to load in December, with freight pegged at $50/mt.
Based on reported transactions, the Gulf export phosphate market softened to $692/mt FOB for the week, down from $700/mt FOB reported previously.
Eastern Cornbelt:
DAP was quoted at $795-$820/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, down $5-$10/st from last report, with Cincinnati pricing reported in the $795-$815/st FOB range. MAP was pegged at $830-$845/st FOB, with the Cincinnati market at $835-$845/st FOB. Sources said the Cincinnati market has experienced “spot outages” of phosphates in recent weeks.
Western Cornbelt:
DAP was pegged at $795-$820/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with MAP quoted at $815-$845/st FOB in the region, depending on location. The St. Louis market was reported at $795-$815/st for DAP and $815-$820/st FOB for MAP.
“Phosphate supply is extremely tight from St. Louis north due to the river issues,” said one regional contact. “Supply is hand-to-mouth as barges straggle into St. Louis.”
California:
MAP was unchanged at $900/st FOB or DEL in California.
Pacific Northwest:
The MAP market was steady at $870-$890/st FOB or DEL in the Pacific Northwest, depending on location.
Western Canada:
MAP pricing slipped to C$1,220-$1,260/mt FOB in Western Canada, depending on location, with delivered pricing reported at C$1,235-$1,270/mt. Those levels were down from the last reported ranges of C$1,238-$1,285/mt FOB and C$1,270-$1,280/mt DEL.
“Most buyers seem to be waiting, hoping for lower prices before they step in for larger winter-fill purchases,” said one regional source.
China:
Sources said the price for DAP is hovering right around $720/mt FOB. At the same time, sources outside China are claiming the market is ready to move to $740/mt FOB. Traders in the area, however, do not think the price will reach that level.
One trader noted that the first quarter of 2023 might see bids in the $740s/mt FOB for Chinese DAP, but nothing is expected to be exported from China during that period, so the price is not relevant. The industry is bracing for the absence of Chinese phosphates into April 2023, said traders. Any material moving out of China for the next several months is expected to be cargoes already booked. No new deals are expected.
Even with the lack of Chinese phosphates on the horizon, people are still wondering if the Chinese government, which has ordered restricted exports, might change its mind if Brazil comes in with strong orders for MAP. Reports are circulating that Brazilian farmers have only ordered 50-60% of the MAP needed for the next application season.
India:
Reports are circulating of DAP sales at $720-$740/mt CFR, with some reportedly in the upper-$740s/mt CFR. The purchases are for other than Chinese product, and most DAP imports are being handled without trader involvement. The pattern started with buyers talking directly to Chinese producers. The same types of deals were later cut with Arab DAP producers.
There were reports late in the week that OCP sold 130,000 mt to India at just about $750/mt CFR. The deal appears to have been the results of talks in late October to secure major long-term contracts between the two countries. Sources earlier said the price would be determined for each cargo on a formula basis. Another cargo of 30,000 mt of DAP was also picked up from Tunisia at the same price.
Buying is now expected to ease off. Sources said the last of the DAP for this season needs to arrive in November or early December to be useful. Even with this timeframe in mind, sources said OCP/Morocco keeps leaning on Indian buyers to take more DAP and other phosphates for immediate shipments.
Brazil:
The landed price of MAP in Brazil tightened to $590-$620/mt CFR, compared with $570-$640/mt last week. Sources said the shift came on limited sales. Sources noted that this is an off-season for phosphate purchases, so the limited business is not surprising.
Rondonopolis pricing shifted slightly to $750-$780/mt FOB ex-warehouse. Farmers still have time to buy MAP for the next application season. Without a major buying rally, the farmers seem to figure they can wait a while longer before committing to large scale purchases.