Central Florida:
Sources noted Central Florida DAP trucks softening to $660/st FOB for the week, below the previous $700/st FOB level. MAP trucks were reported at parity to DAP at $660/st FOB, dropping from $710/st FOB in the prior report.
Truck-loaded MAP loading from North Florida was quoted at $700/st FOB, down from $750/st FOB at last report.
Domestic producers on Dec. 8 concluded the sale of more than 100,000 st of phosphates to a single customer in North America. The transaction, consisting of terminal, rail, and barge tons, was expected to load in a December-January timeframe. Pricing was referenced at a $630-$650/st FOB Central Florida equivalent.
US Gulf:
NOLA DAP and MAP barge prices moved lower for the week, driven by a mix of lower import offers combined with limited seasonal demand.
Imported DAP barge pricing was noted falling to $620/st FOB on Dec. 7, sinking below the week-ago $635/st FOB floor, while players typically indicated domestic tons even with the prior week’s $640/st FOB top.
MAP trades were reported down to $595/st FOB on Dec. 7, below the previous week’s $625/st FOB bottom and falling below the $600/st FOB mark for the first time since the week of May 7, 2021. Traders reported MAP pricing around $620/st FOB prior to the drop. Domestic offers were steady at $640/st FOB, with no trades reported at that level.
Players attributed the market’s falling values to a combination of price indexing on imported vessels currently inbound to NOLA, the seasonal winter shutdown of the upper Mississippi River, and ongoing low-water conditions on the river.
Sources reported the NOLA DAP barge market at $620-$640/st FOB, falling from $635-$640/st FOB in the prior report. MAP barges also softened, to $595-$620/st FOB from the previous $625-$640/st FOB.
US Exports:
Nothing new was heard out of the Gulf export phosphate markets. Recent spot business included a 25,000 mt DAP cargo trading into northern Latin America, with pricing reported at $692/mt FOB and loading slated for December.
Eastern Cornbelt:
New DAP offers were reported at $760-$780/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, below the previous $800-$810/st FOB level, with the Cincinnati market pegged at $760-$770/st FOB. MAP pricing ranged from $725-$775/st FOB in the region, down sharply from the previous $780-$820/st FOB range, with both the high and low end of the range reported at Cincinnati.
There were reports as well of 1Q prepay MAP offers circulating for as low as $685/st FOB out of spot river warehouses, but business at those levels was not confirmed. “There are great differentials in pricing, with the wholesale markets softening and everybody’s not heading down all at the same time,” commented one regional source at midweek.
Western Cornbelt:
DAP was quoted at $750-$790/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, down from the prior week’s $790-$805/st FOB range, with the low confirmed at St. Louis. MAP pricing fell in a broad $750-$820/st FOB range, with the low at St. Louis and the high reported in the Iowa market on a spot basis.
“You can still achieve higher prices for prompt fall demand in upper areas that are cut off from navigation, but it comes down every day toward forward offers,” said one contact. Rumors were even circulating of some river warehouse MAP fill offers down to $685/st FOB for 1Q.
Northern Plains:
DAP pricing was quoted at $770-$790/st FOB St. Paul for the last offers, with MAP at the $800-$820/st FOB level. Delivered green MAP in western North Dakota was reported at $792/st for 1Q.
Northeast:
DAP and MAP pricing in the Northeast slipped to $815/st FOB East Liverpool, Ohio, for both products, down from $830-$850/st in mid-November, with Fairless Hills MAP offers also reported at the $815/st FOB level at midweek.
In the Southeast, MAP pricing from Nutrien slipped to $700/st FOB Aurora, N.C., and White Springs, Fla., down from the $750/st FOB level posted on Nov. 28.
Eastern Canada:
MAP pricing in Eastern Canada remained in a broad range at C$1,180-$1,280/mt FOB in early December, while the last DAP offers at Montreal were unchanged at the C$1,170/mt FOB level.
China:
Sources said they do not expect to see any DAP exported from China during the first quarter of 2023. The only tons that might move out will be leftover December orders that were late in loading. The Chinese government has previously limited exports of DAP during the first quarter to ensure a plentiful supply for the domestic season. The latest reported move will eliminate all exports for at least the first three months of 2023.
India:
DAP vessels totaling about 360,000 mt were reportedly lined up for unloading through Dec. 18.
Government officials talking to local reporters during the annual Fertilizer Association of India meeting said that DAP supplies in India are plentiful, pointing to a 14% production increase in April-October output compared to the same period in 2021. Imports were also reported up 45% year-over-year for the same time frame.
Brazil:
Prices for MAP remained steady at $600-$630/mt CFR. Sources said that only large-scale buyers are able to secure tons at the lower level. At the same time, sellers keep pushing for higher prices to try to bring Brazil in line with the rest of the global MAP market.
The Rondonopolis price moved up to $770-$805/mt FOB ex-warehouse. The shift upward moves against efforts by buyers to keep the price down in a competitive market.
MAP imports for the January-November period were reported at 3.8 million mt by Trade Data Monitor, offabout 18% from 4.7 million mt imported in January-November 2021. Russia and Morocco were the market’s main suppliers with 1.6 million mt and 945,000 mt, respectively, followed by Saudi Arabia with 727,000 mt
November 2022 imports stood at 189,000 mt, down from 491,000 mt in November 2021. Russian material accounted for 55% of the imports with 105,000 mt, followed by Saudi Arabia with 69,000 mt.
Iran:
Agriculture Support Services Co. (ASSC) has issued a tender for the purchase of two 40,000 mt lots of DAP. The tender closes on Dec. 24, and submissions will be opened the following day.